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Weighted Median Inflation Around The World A Measure Of Core Inflation
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Book Synopsis Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book Weighted Median Inflation Around the World: A Measure of Core Inflation written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-02-24 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard measure of core or underlying inflation is the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices. This paper constructs an alternative measure, the weighted median inflation rate, for 38 advanced and emerging economies using subclass level disaggretion of the CPI over 1990-2021, and compares the properties of this measure to those of standard core. For quarterly data, we find that the weighted median is less volatile than standard core, more closely related to economic slack, and more closely related to headline inflation over the next year. The weighted median also has a drawback: in most countries, it has a lower average level than headline inflation. We therefore also consider a measure of core inflation that eliminates this bias, which is based on the percentile of sectoral inflation rates that matches the sample average of headline CPI inflation.
Book Synopsis Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19 by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book Measuring U.S. Core Inflation: The Stress Test of COVID-19 written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-12-17 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Large price changes in industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have caused erratic fluctuations in the U.S. headline inflation rate. This paper compares alternative approaches to filtering out the transitory effects of these industry price changes and measuring the underlying or core level of inflation over 2020-2021. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of core, the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices (XFE), has performed poorly: over most of 2020-21, it is almost as volatile as headline inflation. Measures of core that exclude a fixed set of additional industries, such as the Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price inflation rate, have been less volatile, but the least volatile have been measures that filter out large price changes in any industry, such as the Cleveland Fed’s median inflation rate and the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean inflation rate. These core measures have followed smooth paths, drifting down when the economy was weak in 2020 and then rising as the economy has rebounded. Overall, we find that the case for the Federal Reserve to move away from the traditional XFE measure of core has strengthened during 2020-21.
Book Synopsis Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era written by Laurence M. Ball and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2022-10-28 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core with two factors, the tightening of the labor market as captured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, and the pass-through into core from past shocks to headline inflation. The headline shocks themselves are explained largely by increases in energy prices and by supply chain problems as captured by backlogs of orders for goods and services. Looking forward, we simulate the future path of inflation for alternative paths of the unemployment rate, focusing on the projections of Federal Reserve policymakers in which unemployment rises only modestly to 4.4 percent. We find that this unemployment path returns inflation to near the Fed’s target only under optimistic assumptions about both inflation expectations and the Beveridge curve relating the unemployment and vacancy rates. Under less benign assumptions about these factors, the inflation rate remains well above target unless unemployment rises by more than the Fed projects.
Author :Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498374743 Total Pages :19 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis A Volatility and Persistence-Based Core Inflation by : Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho
Download or read book A Volatility and Persistence-Based Core Inflation written by Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intuitively core inflation is understood as a measure of inflation where noisy price movements are avoided. This is typically achieved by either excluding or downplaying the importance of the most volatile items. However, some of those items show high persistence, and one certainly does not want to disregard persistent price changes. The non-equivalence between volatility and (the lack of) persistence implies that when one excludes volatile items relevant information is likely to be discarded. Therefore, we propose a new type of core inflation measure, one that takes simultaneously into account both volatility and persistence. The evidence shows that such measures far outperform those based on either volatility or persistence. The latter have been advocated in the literature in recent years.
Book Synopsis Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them by : Mick Silver
Download or read book Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them written by Mick Silver and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-04 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of statistical measurement issues relating to alternative measures of core inflation, and the criteria for choosing among them. The approaches to measurement considered include exclusion-based methods, imputation methods, limited influence estimators, reweighting, and economic modeling. Criteria for judging which approach to use include credibility, control, deviations from a smoothed reference series, volatility, predictive ability, causality and cointegration tests, and correlation with money supply. Country practice can differ in how the approaches are implemented and how their appropriateness is assessed. There is little consistency in the results of country studies to readily suggest guidelines on accepted methods.
Book Synopsis Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation by : Robert Rich
Download or read book Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation written by Robert Rich and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2008-04 with total page 520 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ability of central banks to differentiate between permanent & transitory price movements is critical for the conduct of monetary policy. The importance of gauging the persistence of price changes has led to the development of measures of underlying, or ¿core,¿ inflation that are designed to remove transitory price changes from aggregate inflation data. This article examines several proposed measures of core inflation -- the ex food & energy series, an ex energy series, a weighted median series, & an exponentially smoothed series -- to identify a ¿best¿ measure. Evaluates the measures¿ performance according to criteria such as ease of design, & accuracy in tracking trend inflation. Charts & tables.
Book Synopsis A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation by : Robert W. Rich
Download or read book A Comparison of Measures of Core Inflation written by Robert W. Rich and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ability of central banks to differentiate between permanent and transitory price movements is critical for the conduct of monetary policy. The importance of gauging the persistence of price changes in a timely manner has led to the development of measures of underlying, or core, inflation that are designed to remove transitory price changes from aggregate inflation data. Given the usefulness of this information to policymakers, there is a surprising lack of consensus on a preferred measure of U.S. core inflation. This article examines several proposed measures of core inflation - the popular ex food and energy series, an ex energy series, a weighted median series, and an exponentially smoothed series - to identify a best measure. The authors evaluate the measures' performance according to criteria such as ease of design and accuracy in tracking trend inflation, as well as explanatory content for within-sample and out-of-sample movements in aggregate CPI and PCE inflation. The study reveals that the candidate series perform very differently across aggregate inflation measures, criteria, and sample periods. The authors therefore find no compelling evidence to focus on one particular measure of core inflation, including the series that excludes food and energy prices. They attribute their results to the design of the individual measures and the measures' inability to account for variability in the nature and sources of transitory price movements.
Book Synopsis A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment by : Laurence M. Ball
Download or read book A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-25 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed’s series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.
Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession by : Mr. Sandeep Mazumder
Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession written by Mr. Sandeep Mazumder and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-06-01 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.
Book Synopsis Relative Prices, Inflation and Core Inflation by : Scott Roger
Download or read book Relative Prices, Inflation and Core Inflation written by Scott Roger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2000-03 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks concerned with inflation performance almost invariably seek to distinguish between a generalized or persistent component of the measured aggregate rate of inflation-driven by demand pressures and expectations-and supply-driven, essentially transitory inflation developments associated with movements in relative prices. The more generalized, persistent element - usually described as core or underlying inflation - is regarded as a legitimate monetary policy concern, while the influence of specific relative price developments are generally regarded as transient distortions that should be largely ignored in forward-looking policy setting, as well as in backward-looking assessment of policy performance.
Book Synopsis A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment by : Laurence Ball
Download or read book A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment written by Laurence Ball and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve's target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of short-term unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed's series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.
Book Synopsis Consumer Price Index Manual, 2020 by : Brian Graf
Download or read book Consumer Price Index Manual, 2020 written by Brian Graf and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-11-19 with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Consumer Price Index Manual: Concepts and Methods contains comprehensive information and explanations on compiling a consumer price index (CPI). The Manual provides an overview of the methods and practices national statistical offices (NSOs) should consider when making decisions on how to deal with the various problems in the compilation of a CPI. The chapters cover many topics. They elaborate on the different practices currently in use, propose alternatives whenever possible, and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative. The primary purpose of the Manual is to assist countries in producing CPIs that reflect internationally recommended methods and practices.
Book Synopsis Central African Economic and Monetary Community by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book Central African Economic and Monetary Community written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-21 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The CEMAC’s recovery gained momentum in 2022, supported by higher hydrocarbon prices. The external position strengthened, with a rapid foreign reserve build-up, though still below adequate levels. The recent weakening in external buffers will require more forceful action to tighten liquidity conditions, greater compliance of member countries with foreign exchange regulations and stronger fiscal discipline. Underlying non-oil fiscal positions, however, also deteriorated, stressing the need for accelerating structural reforms, addressing recent fiscal slippages, and bringing polices back in line with Fund-supported program objectives and staff advice. This will be critical to strengthen the region’s resilience to hydrocarbon prices volatility, financial instability, entrenched inflation, tighter financial conditions, food insecurity, domestic conflicts and insecurity, and climate-related events.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author :International Labour Office Publisher :International Labour Organization ISBN 13 :9789221136996 Total Pages :578 pages Book Rating :4.1/5 (369 download)
Book Synopsis Consumer Price Index Manual by : International Labour Office
Download or read book Consumer Price Index Manual written by International Labour Office and published by International Labour Organization. This book was released on 2004-08-25 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate at which prices of consumer goods and services change over time. It is used as a key indicator of economic performance, as well as in the setting of monetary and socio-economic policy such as indexation of wages and social security benefits, purchasing power parities and inflation measures. This manual contains methodological guidelines for statistical offices and other agencies responsible for constructing and calculating CPIs, and also examines underlying economic and statistical concepts involved. Topics covered include: expenditure weights, sampling, price collection, quality adjustment, sampling, price indices calculations, errors and bias, organisation and management, dissemination, index number theory, durables and user costs.
Book Synopsis Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation by : Alan S. Blinder
Download or read book Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation written by Alan S. Blinder and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-09-11 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.
