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Author : Nazli Choucri
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780716700593
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (5 download)
Download or read book Forecasting in International Relations written by Nazli Choucri and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Andreas Wenger
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000088367
Total Pages : 433 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Politics and Science of Prevision written by Andreas Wenger and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-05-28 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations. The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-and-Science-of-Prevision-Governing-and-Probing/Wenger-Jasper-Cavelty/p/book/9780367900748, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.
Author : Jeffrey A. Friedman
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 019093803X
Total Pages : 241 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (99 download)
Download or read book War and Chance written by Jeffrey A. Friedman and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-04-01 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.
Author : Andrea Ceron
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317134133
Total Pages : 196 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (171 download)
Download or read book Politics and Big Data written by Andrea Ceron and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-12-19 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.
Author : George Friedman
Publisher : Anchor
ISBN 13 : 0385522940
Total Pages : 274 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (855 download)
Download or read book The Next 100 Years written by George Friedman and published by Anchor. This book was released on 2009-01-27 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including: • The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. • China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. • A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. • Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. • The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead. For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.geopoliticalfutures.com.
Author : William C. Potter
Publisher : Stanford Security Studies
ISBN 13 : 9780804769716
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (697 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century written by William C. Potter and published by Stanford Security Studies. This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Case Study volume (Volume 2) addresses a set of overarching questions regarding the propensity of selected states from different regions of the world to "go nuclear," the sources of national decisions to do so.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Author : Michael P. Clements
Publisher : OUP USA
ISBN 13 : 0195398645
Total Pages : 732 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (953 download)
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Author : Nada Sanders
Publisher : Business Expert Press
ISBN 13 : 1606498711
Total Pages : 110 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (64 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Fundamentals written by Nada Sanders and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2016-11-14 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. It is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, sales of SKUs, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what the book is about. Accurate forecasts are essential for predicting demand, identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. It provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.
Author : Nikolaos Tzifakis
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642219551
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (422 download)
Download or read book International Politics in Times of Change written by Nikolaos Tzifakis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-10-12 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is every indication that the international system is undergoing a period of significant transformation. The substantially higher growth rates of the emerging-market economies in comparison with those of the developed economies are changing the global distribution of power. Studies project that if economic trends are not reversed in the coming years, China will surpass the US and become the world’s largest economy, India will emerge in Japan’s place as the third-largest economy and Brazil will outpace Germany as the fifth-largest. This book underscores the complexity of forecasting international politics and proceeds cautiously to investigate the questions of change and continuity, examining several actors with respect to multiple issues and across different levels of analysis. Taken as a whole, this collection of essays offers a series of snapshots of different aspects, and from varying angles, of an international system in motion.
Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (949 download)
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Author : Barry B. Hughes
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0128134224
Total Pages : 344 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)
Download or read book International Futures written by Barry B. Hughes and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-03-20 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International Futures: Building and Using Global Models extensively covers one of the most advanced systems for integrated, long-term, global and large-scale forecasting analysis available today, the International Futures (IFs) system. Key elements of a strong, long-term global forecasting system are described, i.e. the formulations for the driving variables in separate major models and the manner in which these separate models are integrated. The heavy use of algorithmic and rule-based elements and the use of elements of control theory is also explained. Furthermore, the IFs system is compared and contrasted with all other major modeling efforts, also outlining the major benefits of the IFs system. Finally, the book provides suggestions on how the development of forecasting systems might most productively proceed in the coming years. - Helps readers understand the IFs system, not at a detailed equation and technical level, but in terms of the important decisions made that dominate the structure and long-term behavior - Presents information on the universe of long-term global forecasting systems, key decisions made, and the range of similarities and differences in the systems - Covers the relationship between long-term forecasts in a variety of global issues and the forecasting systems and assumptions that underly them (essential information for forecast consumers)
Author : Ariel Colonomos
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781849045537
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (455 download)
Download or read book Selling the Future written by Ariel Colonomos and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: *** Winner of the 2017 ISA Ethics Book Award 2017*** In an age of uncertainty, those who can anticipate revolution, the outbreak of wars, or which states might default are much in demand. The marketplace of ideas about the future is huge, and includes 'wonks', scholars and pundits who produce scenarios, predictions and ratings. The more opaque the future seems to be, so the relation between knowledge and power intensifies, above all the nexus between those who sell their expertise and those who consume it. In his investigation of the paradoxes of fore--casting, Ariel Colonomos interrogates today's knowledge factories to reveal how our futures are shaped by social scientists, think tanks and rat--ing agencies. He explains why conservative and linear predictions prevail, and why the future, especially when linked to national interest, re--flects a systematic search for stability. The notion of a globalised world whose main characteristic is speed, and where predictions have accelerat--ing, self-fulfilling effects, is obsolete. Those who are supposed to know, reassure those who are supposed to act. Their preferences converge, and thus the industry of the future has a decelerating effect on world politics. These 'lords of knowledge' reinforce pre-existing beliefs, create expectations about the future, while obstructing its vision when - inevitably - it diverges from its orderly path.
Author : Robert Trappl
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9781402043772
Total Pages : 482 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (437 download)
Download or read book Programming for Peace written by Robert Trappl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006 with total page 482 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sadly enough, war, conflicts and terrorism appear to stay with us in the 21st century. But what is our outlook on new methods for preventing and ending them? Present-day hard- and software enables the development of large crisis, conflict, and conflict management databases with many variables, sometimes with automated updates, statistical analyses of a high complexity, elaborate simulation models, and even interactive uses of these databases. In this book, these methods are presented, further developed, and applied in relation to the main issue: the resolution and prevention of intra- and international conflicts. Conflicts are a worldwide phenomenon. Therefore, internationally leading researchers from the USA, Austria, Canada, Germany, New Zealand and Switzerland have contributed. This book is for students and scientists in international relations and political sciences, and decision makers or their advisers in national and international bodies, both governmental and non-governmental.
Author : Alex Mintz
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804796777
Total Pages : 201 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)
Download or read book The Polythink Syndrome written by Alex Mintz and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2016-01-20 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do presidents and their advisors often make sub-optimal decisions on military intervention, escalation, de-escalation, and termination of conflicts? The leading concept of group dynamics, groupthink, offers one explanation: policy-making groups make sub-optimal decisions due to their desire for conformity and uniformity over dissent, leading to a failure to consider other relevant possibilities. But presidential advisory groups are often fragmented and divisive. This book therefore scrutinizes polythink, a group decision-making dynamic whereby different members in a decision-making unit espouse a plurality of opinions and divergent policy prescriptions, resulting in a disjointed decision-making process or even decision paralysis. The book analyzes eleven national security decisions, including the national security policy designed prior to the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the decisions to enter into and withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq, the 2007 "surge" decision, the crisis over the Iranian nuclear program, the UN Security Council decision on the Syrian Civil War, the faltering Kerry Peace Process in the Middle East, and the U.S. decision on military operations against ISIS. Based on the analysis of these case studies, the authors address implications of the polythink phenomenon, including prescriptions for avoiding and/or overcoming it, and develop strategies and tools for what they call Productive Polythink. The authors also show the applicability of polythink to business, industry, and everyday decisions.
Author : Luigi Curini
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 1526486393
Total Pages : 1941 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (264 download)
Download or read book The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations written by Luigi Curini and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2020-04-09 with total page 1941 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The SAGE Handbook of Research Methods in Political Science and International Relations offers a comprehensive overview of research processes in social science — from the ideation and design of research projects, through the construction of theoretical arguments, to conceptualization, measurement, & data collection, and quantitative & qualitative empirical analysis — exposited through 65 major new contributions from leading international methodologists. Each chapter surveys, builds upon, and extends the modern state of the art in its area. Following through its six-part organization, undergraduate and graduate students, researchers and practicing academics will be guided through the design, methods, and analysis of issues in Political Science and International Relations: Part One: Formulating Good Research Questions & Designing Good Research Projects Part Two: Methods of Theoretical Argumentation Part Three: Conceptualization & Measurement Part Four: Large-Scale Data Collection & Representation Methods Part Five: Quantitative-Empirical Methods Part Six: Qualitative & "Mixed" Methods
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309116600
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-02-15 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.
