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Author : Nazli Choucri
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780716700593
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (5 download)
Download or read book Forecasting in International Relations written by Nazli Choucri and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Stuart Greenberg
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 360 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Forecasting in International Relations written by Stuart Greenberg and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Robert A. Young
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (328 download)
Download or read book Prediction and Forecasting in International Relations written by Robert A. Young and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Andreas Wenger
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000088367
Total Pages : 417 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Politics and Science of Prevision written by Andreas Wenger and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-05-28 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations. The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-and-Science-of-Prevision-Governing-and-Probing/Wenger-Jasper-Cavelty/p/book/9780367900748, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.
Author : Gerald Schneider
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (746 download)
Download or read book Forecasting in international relations written by Gerald Schneider and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Warren R. Phillips
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 84 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Forecasting International Relations written by Warren R. Phillips and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Dimensionality of Nations Project (DON) is basic research on international relations attempting to determine the major patterns in the behavior and characteristics of nations and the linkages between these patterns. It is potentially relevant to practical problems which have to do with the nature and direction of international relations. The paper gives a brief overview of the project itself, lists the problems associated with prediction in international relations, and lays out the approaches to prediction and time series analysis employed on the Project. The final section discusses the relationship of DON to foreign and defense policies. (Author).
Author : Robert Arthur Young
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 730 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Prediction and Forecasting in International Relations written by Robert Arthur Young and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 730 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Frances Mautner-markhof
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000236404
Total Pages : 554 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Processes Of International Negotiations written by Frances Mautner-markhof and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-07-11 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The goals of the Conference were to foster increased communication and understanding between practitioners and researchers and among various research disciplines, to present and discuss research results, and to identify possible future research activities. The participation and interaction of both high level negotiations practitioners and researchers were considered especially valuable and unique aspects of the Conference.All of the subjects dealt with at the Conference have direct and obvious relevance to improving negotiations outcomes on, and the ability to deal effectively with, such issues as the trans boundary effects (environmental,economic, etc.) of technological risk, security and confidence-building measures,and international economic cooperation- all of which are high on the negotiations agenda of many countries.
Author : Jeffrey A. Friedman
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0190938048
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (99 download)
Download or read book War and Chance written by Jeffrey A. Friedman and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-04-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030947387X
Total Pages : 91 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (94 download)
Download or read book Emerging Trends and Methods in International Security written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-06-18 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beginning in October 2017, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine organized a set of workshops designed to gather information for the Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Security. The second workshop focused on emerging trends and methods in international security and this publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from this workshop.
Author : Rosanne C. Lipe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 140 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (221 download)
Download or read book Forecasting in International Relations Using Bayesian Analysis written by Rosanne C. Lipe and published by . This book was released on 1974 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Tim Muehlhoff
Publisher : InterVarsity Press
ISBN 13 : 0830868259
Total Pages : 193 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (38 download)
Download or read book Marriage Forecasting written by Tim Muehlhoff and published by InterVarsity Press. This book was released on 2010-10-18 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Communication specialist Tim Muehlhoff shows how to take an accurate climate reading of your marriage relationship and explains what causes climates of poor communication. With current research on marital communication, listening, empathy and conflict, Marriage Forecasting provides practical ways to rebuild a warm relational climate.
Author : Charles F. Hermann
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (227 download)
Download or read book Theories and Forecasting in International Relations: The Role of Validation Efforts written by Charles F. Hermann and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Nada Sanders
Publisher : Business Expert Press
ISBN 13 : 1606498711
Total Pages : 110 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (64 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Fundamentals written by Nada Sanders and published by Business Expert Press. This book was released on 2016-11-14 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is for everyone who wants to make better forecasts. It is not about mathematics and statistics. It is about following a well-established forecasting process to create and implement good forecasts. This is true whether you are forecasting global markets, sales of SKUs, competitive strategy, or market disruptions. Today, most forecasts are generated using software. However, no amount of technology and statistics can compensate for a poor forecasting process. Forecasting is not just about generating a number. Forecasters need to understand the problems they are trying to solve. They also need to follow a process that is justifiable to other parties and be implemented in practice. This is what the book is about. Accurate forecasts are essential for predicting demand, identifying new market opportunities, forecasting risks, disruptions, innovation, competition, market growth and trends. Companies can navigate this daunting landscape and improve their forecasts by following some well-established principles. This book is written to provide the fundamentals business leaders need in order to make good forecasts. These fundamentals hold true regardless of what is being forecast and what technology is being used. It provides the basic foundational principles all companies need to achieve competitive forecast accuracy.
Author : Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (122 download)
Download or read book The Use of Expert Opinion in International-relations Forecasting written by Olaf Helmer-Hirschberg and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Michael C. Dietze
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400885450
Total Pages : 285 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Ecological Forecasting written by Michael C. Dietze and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-30 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An authoritative and accessible introduction to the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science Ecologists are being asked to respond to unprecedented environmental challenges. How can they provide the best available scientific information about what will happen in the future? Ecological Forecasting is the first book to bring together the concepts and tools needed to make ecology a more predictive science. Ecological Forecasting presents a new way of doing ecology. A closer connection between data and models can help us to project our current understanding of ecological processes into new places and times. This accessible and comprehensive book covers a wealth of topics, including Bayesian calibration and the complexities of real-world data; uncertainty quantification, partitioning, propagation, and analysis; feedbacks from models to measurements; state-space models and data fusion; iterative forecasting and the forecast cycle; and decision support. Features case studies that highlight the advances and opportunities in forecasting across a range of ecological subdisciplines, such as epidemiology, fisheries, endangered species, biodiversity, and the carbon cycle Presents a probabilistic approach to prediction and iteratively updating forecasts based on new data Describes statistical and informatics tools for bringing models and data together, with emphasis on: Quantifying and partitioning uncertainties Dealing with the complexities of real-world data Feedbacks to identifying data needs, improving models, and decision support Numerous hands-on activities in R available online
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309388805
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
