Expert Political Judgment

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Expert Political Judgment

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Expert Political Judgment

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691175977
Total Pages : 367 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Superforecasting

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

The Hedgehog and the Fox

Author : Isaiah Berlin
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400846633
Total Pages : 143 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis The Hedgehog and the Fox by : Isaiah Berlin

Download or read book The Hedgehog and the Fox written by Isaiah Berlin and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-06-02 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." This ancient Greek aphorism, preserved in a fragment from the poet Archilochus, describes the central thesis of Isaiah Berlin's masterly essay on Leo Tolstoy and the philosophy of history, the subject of the epilogue to War and Peace. Although there have been many interpretations of the adage, Berlin uses it to mark a fundamental distinction between human beings who are fascinated by the infinite variety of things and those who relate everything to a central, all-embracing system. Applied to Tolstoy, the saying illuminates a paradox that helps explain his philosophy of history: Tolstoy was a fox, but believed in being a hedgehog. One of Berlin's most celebrated works, this extraordinary essay offers profound insights about Tolstoy, historical understanding, and human psychology. This new edition features a revised text that supplants all previous versions, English translations of the many passages in foreign languages, a new foreword in which Berlin biographer Michael Ignatieff explains the enduring appeal of Berlin's essay, and a new appendix that provides rich context, including excerpts from reviews and Berlin's letters, as well as a startling new interpretation of Archilochus's epigram.

Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691215073
Total Pages : 355 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)

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Book Synopsis Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2020-06-30 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.

Expert Political Judgment

Author : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (66 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip Eyrikson Tetlock and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Death of Expertise

Author : Tom Nichols
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0197763839
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (977 download)

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Book Synopsis The Death of Expertise by : Tom Nichols

Download or read book The Death of Expertise written by Tom Nichols and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In the early 1990s, a small group of "AIDS denialists," including a University of California professor named Peter Duesberg, argued against virtually the entire medical establishment's consensus that the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was the cause of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome. Science thrives on such counterintuitive challenges, but there was no evidence for Duesberg's beliefs, which turned out to be baseless. Once researchers found HIV, doctors and public health officials were able to save countless lives through measures aimed at preventing its transmission"--

Politics and Expertise

Author : Zeynep Pamuk
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691218935
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)

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Book Synopsis Politics and Expertise by : Zeynep Pamuk

Download or read book Politics and Expertise written by Zeynep Pamuk and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-12-21 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new model for the relationship between science and democracy that spans policymaking, the funding and conduct of research, and our approach to new technologies Our ability to act on some of the most pressing issues of our time, from pandemics and climate change to artificial intelligence and nuclear weapons, depends on knowledge provided by scientists and other experts. Meanwhile, contemporary political life is increasingly characterized by problematic responses to expertise, with denials of science on the one hand and complaints about the ignorance of the citizenry on the other. Politics and Expertise offers a new model for the relationship between science and democracy, rooted in the ways in which scientific knowledge and the political context of its use are imperfect. Zeynep Pamuk starts from the fact that science is uncertain, incomplete, and contested, and shows how scientists’ judgments about what is significant and useful shape the agenda and framing of political decisions. The challenge, Pamuk argues, is to ensure that democracies can expose and contest the assumptions and omissions of scientists, instead of choosing between wholesale acceptance or rejection of expertise. To this end, she argues for institutions that support scientific dissent, proposes an adversarial “science court” to facilitate the public scrutiny of science, reimagines structures for funding scientific research, and provocatively suggests restricting research into dangerous new technologies. Through rigorous philosophical analysis and fascinating examples, Politics and Expertise moves the conversation beyond the dichotomy between technocracy and populism and develops a better answer for how to govern and use science democratically.

Unmaking the West

Author : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 9780472031436
Total Pages : 438 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (314 download)

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Book Synopsis Unmaking the West by : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock

Download or read book Unmaking the West written by Philip Eyrikson Tetlock and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 9788472457904.txt

Future Babble

Author : Dan Gardner
Publisher : McClelland & Stewart
ISBN 13 : 0771035217
Total Pages : 319 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Future Babble by : Dan Gardner

Download or read book Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and published by McClelland & Stewart. This book was released on 2010-10-12 with total page 319 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

Under This Beautiful Dome

Author : Terry Mutchler
Publisher : Seal Press
ISBN 13 : 1580055095
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Under This Beautiful Dome by : Terry Mutchler

Download or read book Under This Beautiful Dome written by Terry Mutchler and published by Seal Press. This book was released on 2014-09-02 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “One of the greatest love stories I have ever heard played out right here, under this beautiful dome. But it was a secret. . . . Penny and Terry just wanted what so many people want—to express their love through marriage.” —Illinois Representative Ann Williams Under This Beautiful Dome tells the true story of journalist Terry Mutchler's secret five-year relationship with Penny Severns, an Illinois State Senator who mentored Barack Obama. Forced to engage in an elaborate ruse to keep their relationship a secret, the two women constantly fear discovery in their conservative town. Denied legal access to the altar, they face even greater hardships when Penny is diagnosed with cancer and begins undergoing treatment. Set in the political arena, Under This Beautiful Dome reminds us why the march to legalize same-sex marriage is both personal and political. This vivid, beautiful story paints an intimate portrait of a loving relationship and the vast impact gay marriage legislation has on couples and families in America today.

Authenticity

Author : James H. Gilmore
Publisher : Harvard Business Review Press
ISBN 13 : 1633690571
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (336 download)

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Book Synopsis Authenticity by : James H. Gilmore

Download or read book Authenticity written by James H. Gilmore and published by Harvard Business Review Press. This book was released on 2007-10-18 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contrived. Disingenuous. Phony. Inauthentic. Do your customers use any of these words to describe what you sell—or how you sell it? If so, welcome to the club. Inundated by fakes and sophisticated counterfeits, people increasingly see the world in terms of real or fake. They would rather buy something real from someone genuine rather than something fake from some phony. When deciding to buy, consumers judge an offering's (and a company's) authenticity as much as—if not more than—price, quality, and availability. In Authenticity, James H. Gilmore and B. Joseph Pine II argue that to trounce rivals companies must grasp, manage, and excel at rendering authenticity. Through examples from a wide array of industries as well as government, nonprofit, education, and religious sectors, the authors show how to manage customers' perception of authenticity by: recognizing how businesses "fake it;" appealing to the five different genres of authenticity; charting how to be "true to self" and what you say you are; and crafting and implementing business strategies for rendering authenticity. The first to explore what authenticity really means for businesses and how companies can approach it both thoughtfully and thoroughly, this book is a must-read for any organization seeking to fulfill consumers' intensifying demand for the real deal.

Expert Judgment in Project Management

Author : Paul Szwed
Publisher : Project Management Institute
ISBN 13 : 1628251468
Total Pages : 128 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (282 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Judgment in Project Management by : Paul Szwed

Download or read book Expert Judgment in Project Management written by Paul Szwed and published by Project Management Institute. This book was released on 2016-04-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expert judgment is a major source of information that can provide vital input to project managers, who must ensure that projects are completed successfully, on time, and on budget. Too often, however, companies lack detailed processes for finding and consulting with experts—making it hard to match the required know-how with the project at hand. In Expert Judgment in Project Management: Narrowing the Theory-Practice Gap, Paul S. Szwed provides research that will help project managers become more adept at using expert judgment effectively.

Predisposed

Author : John R. Hibbing
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136281215
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (362 download)

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Book Synopsis Predisposed by : John R. Hibbing

Download or read book Predisposed written by John R. Hibbing and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-09-23 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Buried in many people and operating largely outside the realm of conscious thought are forces inclining us toward liberal or conservative political convictions. Our biology predisposes us to see and understand the world in different ways, not always reason and the careful consideration of facts. These predispositions are in turn responsible for a significant portion of the political and ideological conflict that marks human history. With verve and wit, renowned social scientists John Hibbing, Kevin Smith, and John Alford—pioneers in the field of biopolitics—present overwhelming evidence that people differ politically not just because they grew up in different cultures or were presented with different information. Despite the oft-heard longing for consensus, unity, and peace, the universal rift between conservatives and liberals endures because people have diverse psychological, physiological, and genetic traits. These biological differences influence much of what makes people who they are, including their orientations to politics. Political disputes typically spring from the assumption that those who do not agree with us are shallow, misguided, uninformed, and ignorant. Predisposed suggests instead that political opponents simply experience, process, and respond to the world differently. It follows, then, that the key to getting along politically is not the ability of one side to persuade the other side to see the error of its ways but rather the ability of each side to see that the other is different, not just politically, but physically. Predisposed will change the way you think about politics and partisan conflict. As a bonus, the book includes a "Left/Right 20 Questions" game to test whether your predispositions lean liberal or conservative.

Democratization of Expertise?

Author : Sabine Maasen
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1402037546
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Democratization of Expertise? by : Sabine Maasen

Download or read book Democratization of Expertise? written by Sabine Maasen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-06-30 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ‘Scientific advice to politics’, the ‘nature of expertise’, and the ‘relation between experts, policy makers, and the public’ are variations of a topic that currently attracts the attention of social scientists, philosophers of science as well as practitioners in the public sphere and the media. This renewed interest in a persistent theme is initiated by the call for a democratization of expertise that has become the order of the day in the legitimation of research funding. The new significance of ‘participation’ and ‘accountability’ has motivated scholars to take a new look at the science – politics interface and to probe questions such as "What is new in the arrangement of scientific expertise and political decision-making?", "How can reliable knowledge be made useful for politics and society at large, and how can epistemically and ethically sound decisions be achieved without losing democratic legitimacy?", "How can the objective of democratization of expertise be achieved without compromising the quality and reliability of knowledge?" Scientific knowledge and the ‘experts’ that represent it no longer command the unquestioned authority and public trust that was once bestowed upon them, and yet, policy makers are more dependent on them than ever before. This collection of essays explores the relations between science and politics with the instruments of the social studies of science, thereby providing new insights into their re-alignment under a new régime of governance.

A Defense of Judgment

Author : Michael W. Clune
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022677029X
Total Pages : 255 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (267 download)

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Book Synopsis A Defense of Judgment by : Michael W. Clune

Download or read book A Defense of Judgment written by Michael W. Clune and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2021-04-23 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Teachers of literature make judgments about value. They tell their students which works are powerful, beautiful, surprising, strange, or insightful—and thus, which are more worthy of time and attention than others. Yet the field of literary studies has largely disavowed judgments of artistic value on the grounds that they are inevitably rooted in prejudice or entangled in problems of social status. For several decades now, professors have called their work value-neutral, simply a means for students to gain cultural, political, or historical knowledge. Michael W. Clune’s provocative book challenges these objections to judgment and offers a positive account of literary studies as an institution of aesthetic education. It is impossible, Clune argues, to separate judgments about literary value from the practices of interpretation and analysis that constitute any viable model of literary expertise. Clune envisions a progressive politics freed from the strictures of dogmatic equality and enlivened by education in aesthetic judgment, transcending consumer culture and market preferences. Drawing on psychological and philosophical theories of knowledge and perception, Clune advocates for the cultivation of what John Keats called “negative capability,” the capacity to place existing criteria in doubt and to discover new concepts and new values in artworks. Moving from theory to practice, Clune takes up works by Keats, Emily Dickinson, Gwendolyn Brooks, Samuel Beckett, and Thomas Bernhard, showing how close reading—the profession’s traditional key skill—harnesses judgment to open new modes of perception.

The Crisis of Expertise

Author : Gil Eyal
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1509538879
Total Pages : 135 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (95 download)

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Book Synopsis The Crisis of Expertise by : Gil Eyal

Download or read book The Crisis of Expertise written by Gil Eyal and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-10-24 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent political debates there has been a significant change in the valence of the word “experts” from a superlative to a near pejorative, typically accompanied by a recitation of experts’ many failures and misdeeds. In topics as varied as Brexit, climate change, and vaccinations there is a palpable mistrust of experts and a tendency to dismiss their advice. Are we witnessing, therefore, the “death of expertise,” or is the handwringing about an “assault on science” merely the hysterical reaction of threatened elites? In this new book, Gil Eyal argues that what needs to be explained is not a one-sided “mistrust of experts” but the two-headed pushmi-pullyu of unprecedented reliance on science and expertise, on the one hand, coupled with increased skepticism and dismissal of scientific findings and expert opinion, on the other. The current mistrust of experts is best understood as one more spiral in an on-going, recursive crisis of legitimacy. The “scientization of politics,” of which critics warned in the 1960s, has brought about a politicization of science, and the two processes reinforce one another in an unstable, crisis-prone mixture. This timely book will be of great interest to students and scholars in the social sciences and to anyone concerned about the political uses of, and attacks on, scientific knowledge and expertise.