Why Inflation Rose And Fell

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Why Inflation Rose and Fell

Author : Giorgio E. Primiceri
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (253 download)

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Book Synopsis Why Inflation Rose and Fell by : Giorgio E. Primiceri

Download or read book Why Inflation Rose and Fell written by Giorgio E. Primiceri and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U.S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation in the early 1980s, which standard macroeconomic models have difficulties in addressing. I present a model in which rational policymakers learn about the behavior of the economy in real time and set stabilization policy optimally, conditional on their current beliefs. The steady state associated with the self-confirming equilibrium of the model is characterized by low inflation. However, prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the Phillips curve. I estimate the model using likelihood methods. The estimation results show that the model accounts remarkably well for the evolution of policymakers' beliefs, stabilization policy and the postwar behavior of inflation and unemployment in the United States.

The Great Inflation

Author : Michael D. Bordo
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226066959
Total Pages : 545 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Inflation by : Michael D. Bordo

Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Inflation Expectations

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation

Author : Alan S. Blinder
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 1483264564
Total Pages : 244 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (832 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation by : Alan S. Blinder

Download or read book Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation written by Alan S. Blinder and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-09-11 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.

The inflation crisis, and how to resolve it

Author : Henry Hazlitt
Publisher : Ludwig von Mises Institute
ISBN 13 : 1610164261
Total Pages : 198 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (11 download)

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Book Synopsis The inflation crisis, and how to resolve it by : Henry Hazlitt

Download or read book The inflation crisis, and how to resolve it written by Henry Hazlitt and published by Ludwig von Mises Institute. This book was released on 1978 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Triumph of Central Banking?

Author : Paul A. Volcker
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 42 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (512 download)

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Book Synopsis The Triumph of Central Banking? by : Paul A. Volcker

Download or read book The Triumph of Central Banking? written by Paul A. Volcker and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

Author : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513555839
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications by : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard

Download or read book Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-06 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.

Reducing Inflation

Author : Christina D. Romer
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226724832
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (267 download)

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Book Synopsis Reducing Inflation by : Christina D. Romer

Download or read book Reducing Inflation written by Christina D. Romer and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While there is ample evidence that high inflation is harmful, little is known about how best to reduce inflation or how far it should be reduced. In this volume, sixteen distinguished economists analyze the appropriateness of low inflation as a goal for monetary policy and discuss possible strategies for reducing inflation. Section I discusses the consequences of inflation. These papers analyze inflation's impact on the tax system, labor market flexibility, equilibrium unemployment, and the public's sense of well-being. Section II considers the obstacles facing central bankers in achieving low inflation. These papers study the precision of estimates of equilibrium unemployment, the sources of the high inflation of the 1970s, and the use of non-traditional indicators in policy formation. The papers in section III consider how institutions can be designed to promote successful monetary policy, and the importance of institutions to the performance of policy in the United States, Germany, and other countries. This timely volume should be read by anyone who studies or conducts monetary policy.

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356154
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)

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Book Synopsis The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar

Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies

Author : Jongrim Ha
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464813760
Total Pages : 513 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha

Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Author : Jeff Fuhrer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 026225820X
Total Pages : 517 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (622 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy by : Jeff Fuhrer

Download or read book Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy written by Jeff Fuhrer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2009-09-11 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current perspectives on the Phillips curve, a core macroeconomic concept that treats the relationship between inflation and unemployment. In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of the top economists working today reexamine the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent specifications. The contributors consider such questions as what economists have learned about price and wage setting and inflation expectations that would improve the way we use and formulate the Phillips curve, what the Phillips curve approach can teach us about inflation dynamics, and how these lessons can be applied to improving the conduct of monetary policy. Contributors Lawrence Ball, Ben Bernanke, Oliver Blanchard, V. V. Chari, William T. Dickens, Stanley Fischer, Jeff Fuhrer, Jordi Gali, Michael T. Kiley, Robert G. King, Donald L. Kohn, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, Bartisz Mackowiak, N. Gregory Mankiw, Virgiliu Midrigan, Giovanni P. Olivei, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian R. Pagan, Christopher A. Pissarides, Lucrezia Reichlin, Paul A. Samuelson, Christopher A. Sims, Frank R. Smets, Robert M. Solow, Jürgen Stark, James H. Stock, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Mark W. Watson

The Economics of World War I

Author : Stephen Broadberry
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139448358
Total Pages : 363 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis The Economics of World War I by : Stephen Broadberry

Download or read book The Economics of World War I written by Stephen Broadberry and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-09-29 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.

Monetary Policy Rules

Author : John B. Taylor
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226791262
Total Pages : 460 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (267 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Rules by : John B. Taylor

Download or read book Monetary Policy Rules written by John B. Taylor and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 460 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely volume presents the latest thinking on the monetary policy rules and seeks to determine just what types of rules and policy guidelines function best. A unique cooperative research effort that allowed contributors to evaluate different policy rules using their own specific approaches, this collection presents their striking findings on the potential response of interest rates to an array of variables, including alterations in the rates of inflation, unemployment, and exchange. Monetary Policy Rules illustrates that simple policy rules are more robust and more efficient than complex rules with multiple variables. A state-of-the-art appraisal of the fundamental issues facing the Federal Reserve Board and other central banks, Monetary Policy Rules is essential reading for economic analysts and policymakers alike.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Author : Laurent Ferrara
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319790757
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara

Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath

Author : Robert J. Samuelson
Publisher : Random House Trade Paperbacks
ISBN 13 : 0812980042
Total Pages : 353 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath by : Robert J. Samuelson

Download or read book The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath written by Robert J. Samuelson and published by Random House Trade Paperbacks. This book was released on 2010-01-26 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Great Inflation in the 1960s and 1970s, notes award-winning columnist Robert J. Samuelson, played a crucial role in transforming American politics, economy, and everyday life. The direct consequences included stagnation in living standards, a growing belief—both in America and abroad—that the great-power status of the United States was ending, and Ronald Reagan’s election to the presidency in 1980. But that is only half the story. The end of high inflation led to two decades of almost uninterrupted economic growth, rising stock prices and ever-increasing home values. Paradoxically, this prolonged prosperity triggered the economic and financial collapse of 2008 and 2009 by making Americans—from bank executives to ordinary homeowners—overconfident, complacent, and careless. The Great Inflation and its Aftermath, Samuelson contends, demonstrated that we have not yet escaped the boom-and-bust cycles common in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This is a sobering tale essential for anyone who wants to understand today’s world.

Unemployment, Hysteresis, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis

Author : Rod Cross
Publisher : Wiley-Blackwell
ISBN 13 : 9780631156888
Total Pages : 416 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (568 download)

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Book Synopsis Unemployment, Hysteresis, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis by : Rod Cross

Download or read book Unemployment, Hysteresis, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis written by Rod Cross and published by Wiley-Blackwell. This book was released on 1988 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Great Wave

Author : David Hackett Fischer
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 9780195121216
Total Pages : 556 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (212 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Wave by : David Hackett Fischer

Download or read book The Great Wave written by David Hackett Fischer and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1999 with total page 556 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fischer has examined price records in many nations, and finds that great waves of rising prices in the 13th-, 16th-, 18th-, and 20th centuries were all marked by price swings of increasing volatility, falling wages, a growing gap between rich and poor, and an increase in violent crime, family disintegration, and cultural despair. 109 graphs & charts. 7 maps.