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To Cut Or Not To Cut That Is The Central Banks Question In Search Of The Neutral Interest Rate In Latin America
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Book Synopsis To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America by : Mr.Nicolas E. Magud
Download or read book To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America written by Mr.Nicolas E. Magud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-09 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates neutral real interest rate (NRIR) ranges for 10 Latin American countries that either have full-fledged inflation targeting regimes in place or have recently adopted them, using an array of methodologies commonly used in the literature. We find that NRIRs have declined in the last decade, with more economically and financially developed economies exhibiting lower NRIR levels. Based on the estimated NRIRs, we assess that the current monetary stance (measured by the interest rate gap) is appropriately neutral in most of the considered economies, in line with closing output gaps. We also observe that the interest rate gap can be a good predictor of future inflation dynamics and economic growth. In addition, looking at the recent experiences in Brazil and Peru, we suggest that macro-prudential policies could affect the monetary stance even in the absence of direct interest rate changes, through affecting the NRIR.
Book Synopsis Central Banking in Latin America by : Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow
Download or read book Central Banking in Latin America written by Mr.Yan Carriere-Swallow and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-30 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Latin America’s central banks have made substantial progress towards delivering an environment of price stability that is supportive of sustainable economic growth. We review these achievements, and discuss remaining challenges facing central banking in the region. Where inflation remains high and volatile, achieving durable price stability will require making central banks more independent. Where inflation targeting regimes are well-established, remaining challenges surround assessments of economic slack, the communication of monetary policy, and clarifying the role of the exchange rate. Finally, macroprudential policies must be coordinated with existing objectives, and care taken to preserve the primacy of price stability.
Book Synopsis Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate—The Case of Brazil by : Mr.Roberto Perrelli
Download or read book Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate—The Case of Brazil written by Mr.Roberto Perrelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-12 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emerging markets have experienced a sizeable decline in their neutral real interest rates until recently. In this paper we try to identify the main factors that contributed to it, with a focus on Brazil. We estimate an interval for Brazil’s time-varying neutral rate based on a range of structural and econometric models. We assess the implications of incorrectly estimating a time-varying neutral rate using a small structural model with a simple monetary policy instrument rule. We find that policy prescriptions are very different when facing uncertainty of neutral rate and of output gap. Our result contrasts sharply with Orphanides (2002), suggesting that the best response to neutral rate uncertainty is to ensure policy remains highly sensitive to inflation and output variations.
Book Synopsis Challenges for Central Banking by : Luis I. Jacome H.
Download or read book Challenges for Central Banking written by Luis I. Jacome H. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-10-04 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the wake of the 2008–09 global financial crisis, central banking and monetary policy in many corners of the world came under intense pressure and entered unchartered waters. The breadth and scale of central bank operations have been modified or expanded in unprecedented and even unimaginable ways given the circumstances. Additionally, a fundamental rethinking of central banking and its policy frameworks has been taking place. This volume reflects a multilateral effort to help close the gap in our knowledge in meeting the critical challenges presented by these significant changes, in particular, those confronting central banks in Latin America. The volume’s first section provides a panoramic overview of the policy progress made to date and the challenges that lie ahead. The related issue of spillovers and monetary independence is taken up more fully in the next section. The final section presents chapters that reexamine macroprudential and monetary policies and policy frameworks from the perspective of central bank staff members from the region.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484318080 Total Pages :60 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Uruguay by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Uruguay written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-08 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uruguay’s near-term outlook is positive, but with risks and policy challenges. Medium-term challenges include bolstering the economy’s resilience to shocks and fostering productivity growth. Inflation is a priority and monetary policy cannot fight inflation alone; concerted efforts on other fronts are also necessary. Near-term fiscal policy could better support monetary policy. A long-term policy challenge is to bolster growth prospects and reduce output volatility. The political cycle should be propitious for continued sound policies and progress with reforms.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475578504 Total Pages :74 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Peru by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Peru written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-22 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses Peru’s economic performance in 2012. The impressive growth is owed to its strong fundamentals and sound policy management. However, the economy is vulnerable to short-term shocks. A low growth in China or in the United States could hamper Peru’s macroeconomic performance. The Executive Board has identified structural reforms for improving productivity, and recommends proactive use of macroprudential measures to limit financial vulnerabilities in the context of large capital inflows and strong credit growth.
Book Synopsis Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic by : Mr. Roberto Cardarelli
Download or read book Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic written by Mr. Roberto Cardarelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-21 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper finds that the neutral interest rate has been on a downward trajectory in Morocco since the global financial crisis and may have fallen in the wake of the pandemic. In that context, monetary policy transmission to output and prices appears relatively muted given limited exchange rate flexibility until recently. Also, monetary policy transmission to some market rates has somewhat weakened in the wake of the pandemic. A lower natural rate and low policy rates raise the question of whether further rate reductions would impair the banking system. We find that the sensitivity of cash demand to deposit rates is low, implying limited risks that banks would lose funding with further reductions. A reliance on checking and savings accounts for funding may impair monetary pass-through, however. If monetary policy reaches its effective lower bound, limited and credible recourse to an asset purchase program could usefully complement conventional measures and strengthen monetary policy transmission under an inflation-targeting regime with a flexible exchange rate.
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin June 2013 by : Mr.Ayhan Kose
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin June 2013 written by Mr.Ayhan Kose and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-06-20 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The June issue of the IMF Research Bulletin looks at the role of IMF programs and capacity building in fostering structural reforms and the economics of Arab countries undergoing political transitions. The Q&A analyzes the neutral interest rate through the experiences of several Latin American countries. The Research Bulletin also includes its regular features: a listing of IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, information on the forthcoming IMF Economic Review and the Fourteenth Jacques Polack Annual Research Conference, and recommended readings from IMF Publications.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484364848 Total Pages :61 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Guatemala by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Guatemala written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-02 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that key developments in Guatemala since the 2012 Article IV Consultation have been positive. As commodity prices stabilized and domestic demand pressures weakened, inflation fell sharply in 2012—closing at 3.4 percent by December. Although subsequently inflation rose somewhat—to 4.3 percent by May 2013, owing mainly to domestic prices—it still remained within the central bank’s target range of 4.0±1 percent. The economic outlook is generally benign. Growth is expected to edge up to 31⁄2 percent in 2013 and 2014, reaching its potential rate, supported by ongoing buoyant domestic demand and healthy private-sector credit.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484382471 Total Pages :66 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, May 2013, Western Hemisphere by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, May 2013, Western Hemisphere written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-06 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite some global risks, external conditions for Latin America should remain stimulative. With monetary policy in advanced economies expected to stay accommodative, external financing conditions will remain favorable. Strong demand from emerging Asian economies and the gradual recovery of advanced economies will continue to support commodity prices, benefiting exporters. The main policy challenge for most of the region is to take advantage of current conditions to continue buttressing a foundation for sustained growth. Other issues important to the region include: (i) strengthening balance sheets; (ii) understanding how changes in external conditions could impact public and external debt dynamics; and (iii) making the best use of the windfall from the recent terms-of-trade boom.
Author :INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1513593838 Total Pages :51 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Western Hemisphere: A Long and Winding Road to Recovery by : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND.
Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Western Hemisphere: A Long and Winding Road to Recovery written by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-21 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An economic recovery is underway in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) but the pandemic still casts shadows on much of the region. The recovery was robust in the first quarter of 2021 but lost momentum in some countries in the second quarter, reflecting the rebound in COVID-19 cases. Real GDP is projected to grow by 6.3 percent in 2021, followed by a more moderate growth of 3 percent in 2022, but would not catch up with pre-pandemic trends in the medium term as persistent weakness in labor markets raises risks of scarring. Broadly favorable external conditions, high commodity prices, and pent-up demand support short-term growth, while monetary and fiscal policy reversals work in the other direction. Risks to the outlook are tilted downward. Main downside risks are the emergence of more transmissible and deadlier COVID-19 variants, tightening of global financial conditions, sovereign debt rollover risks, and social unrest as a year with heavy election schedule looms. Fiscal policy should allocate sufficient resources for health spending, including vaccination, and continue to support households and firms in a more targeted fashion while the pandemic persists, backed by credible assurances of medium-term debt sustainability to maintain access to finance. Monetary policy has started to address inflationary pressures but should continue to support economic activity insofar as the dynamics of inflation expectations permit. If rising inflation threatens to de-anchor inflation expectations, central banks should tighten monetary policy to signal a commitment to inflation targets and avoid persistent increases in inflation. Preemptive and decisive action should be accompanied with clear and transparent communication. Financial policy should shift from blanket support to targeted support of viable firms, to ensure that necessary labor and capital reallocations are not hindered. Supply-side policies should foster inclusive growth, including through progressive and growth-friendly tax reforms and measures to intensify climate change adaptation and mitigation.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484304993 Total Pages :41 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Iceland by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Iceland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-06-22 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Iceland: Selected Issues
Book Synopsis Republic of Mozambique by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Download or read book Republic of Mozambique written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-18 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Selected Issues
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :21 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Costa Rica by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Costa Rica written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-12-22 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Costa Rica: Selected Issues
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Surveys: Costa Rica 2016 Economic Assessment by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Surveys: Costa Rica 2016 Economic Assessment written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2016-02-15 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2016 OECD Economic Survey of Costa Rica examines recent economic developments, policies and prospects. The special chapters cover: Inclusive growth and Productivity.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475514867 Total Pages :77 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Paraguay by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Download or read book Paraguay written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-02-21 with total page 77 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that robust growth in Paraguay has been accompanied by declining inflation, particularly since 2011 when the central bank adopted inflation targeting. Despite the acceleration in growth in the 2000s, poverty and inequality in Paraguay remain among the highest in the region. Activity rebounded to an estimated 13 percent in 2013. The outlook for 2014 is positive. Growth should be strong at 4.8 percent, underpinned by continued dynamism in the agricultural sector and rising infrastructure investment. Annual inflation will likely increase to the central bank’s target rate of 5 percent.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475578253 Total Pages :39 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Guatemala by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Guatemala written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-02 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost closed. Results are highly robust among different methodologies. Among the methods used, several well-known time series filters and two different estimations of a state-space model are included. Additionally, a test for structural breaks in the series of potential GDP is presented. All methodologies conclude that the output gap at the end of 2012 is almost closed at -0.2 percent of potential GDP.
