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Strategic Warning Intelligence
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Book Synopsis Strategic Warning Intelligence by : John A. Gentry
Download or read book Strategic Warning Intelligence written by John A. Gentry and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2019-03-01 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John A. Gentry and Joseph S. Gordon update our understanding of strategic warning intelligence analysis for the twenty-first century. Strategic warning—the process of long-range analysis to alert senior leaders to trending threats and opportunities that require action—is a critical intelligence function. It also is frequently misunderstood and underappreciated. Gentry and Gordon draw on both their practitioner and academic backgrounds to present a history of the strategic warning function in the US intelligence community. In doing so, they outline the capabilities of analytic methods, explain why strategic warning analysis is so hard, and discuss the special challenges strategic warning encounters from senior decision-makers. They also compare how strategic warning functions in other countries, evaluate why the United States has in recent years emphasized current intelligence instead of strategic warning, and recommend warning-related structural and procedural improvements in the US intelligence community. The authors examine historical case studies, including postmortems of warning failures, to provide examples of the analytic points they make. Strategic Warning Intelligence will interest scholars and practitioners and will be an ideal teaching text for intermediate and advanced students.
Book Synopsis Anticipating Surprise by : Cynthia M. Grabo
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Handbook of Warning Intelligence by : Cynthia Grabo
Download or read book Handbook of Warning Intelligence written by Cynthia Grabo and published by Scarecrow Press. This book was released on 2010-03-16 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Warning Intelligence: Assessing the Threat to National Security was written during the Cold War and classified for 40 years, this manual is now available to scholars and practitioners interested in both history and intelligence. Cynthia Grabo, author of the abridged version, Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, goes into detail on the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting. The book discusses the problems of military analysis, problems of understanding specific problems of political, civil and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment."
Author :John W. Bodnar Publisher :Joint Military Intelligence College Center for Strategic Intelligence Research ISBN 13 : Total Pages :208 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (31 download)
Book Synopsis Warning Analysis for the Information Age by : John W. Bodnar
Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age written by John W. Bodnar and published by Joint Military Intelligence College Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. This book was released on 2003 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Looks at the challenges posed to the intelligence community by the changed strategic circumstances of the information age.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Warning Intelligence by : Cynthia Grabo
Download or read book Handbook of Warning Intelligence written by Cynthia Grabo and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2015-09-09 with total page 455 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new and final edition is a follow-up to the author’s first book, Anticipating Surprise (University Press of America, 2002) and the Handbook of Warning Intelligence (Scarecrow Press, 2010). The first book was an abridged version of Grabo’s 1972 manuscript, of which only 200 pages were allowed to be published by the government. The second book was published after it was agreed that the last 10 chapters would remain classified. These final 10 chapters have recently been released by the government and complete the manuscript as it was originally intended to be published by the author in 1972. The Handbook of Warning Intelligence was written during the cold war and was classified for 40 years. Originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts, it explains the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting, discusses military analysis, as well as the difficulties in understanding political, civil, and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment." Much of what Grabo wrote in her book seems to appear in many of the numerous commission reports that emerged after the 9/11 attacks. However, her book was written in response to the "surprise attack" of the Soviet Union's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. According to the author, that event was no surprise. And while analysts have to take some of the blame for their failure to strenuously present their case that the threat was real and imminent, what occurred was a failure by policymakers to listen to the warning intelligence reports that were written at the time. In these last chapters, Grabo discusses scenarios where the United States will need to take action, especially describing Soviet indicators of such action. She also talks on how to influence policymakers to take, or not take, action based on intelligence. After the Soviet Union fell, the government was hesitant to release this information—especially considering what's going on with Putin today.
Book Synopsis Anticipating Surprise by : Cynthia M. Grabo
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Intelligence and Surprise Attack by : Erik J. Dahl
Download or read book Intelligence and Surprise Attack written by Erik J. Dahl and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2013-07-19 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings.
Book Synopsis Paradoxes of Strategic Intelligence by : Richard K. Betts
Download or read book Paradoxes of Strategic Intelligence written by Richard K. Betts and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-08-02 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part of a three part collection in honour of the teachings of Michael I. Handel, one of the foremost strategists of the late 20th century, this collection explores the paradoxes of intelligence analysis, surprise and deception from both historical and theoretical perspectives.
Book Synopsis Understanding Intelligence Failure by : James J. Wirtz
Download or read book Understanding Intelligence Failure written by James J. Wirtz and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-11-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection, comprising key works by James J. Wirtz, explains how different threat perceptions can lead to strategic surprise attack, intelligence failure and the failure of deterrence. This volume adopts a strategist’s view of the issue of surprise and intelligence failure by placing these phenomena in the context of conflict between strong and weak actors in world affairs. A two-level theory explains the incentives and perceptions of both parties when significant imbalances of military power exist between potential combatants, and how this situation sets the stage for strategic surprise and intelligence failure to occur. The volume illustrates this theory by applying it to the Kargil Crisis, attacks launched by non-state actors, and by offering a comparison of Pearl Harbor and the September 11, 2001 attacks. It explores the phenomenon of deterrence failure; specifically, how weaker parties in an enduring or nascent conflict come to believe that deterrent threats posed by militarily stronger antagonists will be undermined by various constraints, increasing the attractiveness of utilising surprise attack to achieve their objectives. This work also offers strategies that could mitigate the occurrence of intelligence failure, strategic surprise and the failure of deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, security studies and IR in general.
Book Synopsis Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning by :
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Warning is a skill unto itself, requiring an understanding of the attitudes and disciplines of potential adversaries as well as their capabilities, their history, their culture and their biases. In an era of asymmetric warfare in which our national security and well being can be seriously threatened by hostile groups as well as nations, it is imperative that lessons from the past not be forgotten and the discipline of warning reinvigorated. Warning intelligence differs significantly from current intelligence and the preparation of long-range estimates. It accepts the presumption of surprise and incomplete intelligence and requires exhaustive research upon which to build the case for specific warning. Relationships among events or involving the players may not be readily evident at first and initial signs often consist of fragmentary evidence, conflicting reports, or an absence of something. It is not merely a compilation of facts. It is an abstraction, an intangible, a perception or a belief. While a specific methodology for developing warning may have been tailored to the needs of the Cold War, the same principles apply even to asymmetric conflict. This updated and revised edition of an earlier, classified publication is an excellent primer for both intelligence analysts and policymakers. Events have shown that accurate and timely warning has most often been produced by a minority viewpoint brought to the attention of decisionmakers in some way; it is not the product of a majority consensus. In the rush to build new intelligence mechanisms to combat terrorist attacks and to provide warning for the homeland as well as for forces deployed, the nation and the Intelligence Community would be well served by reviewing this book to gain an understanding of what constitutes warning and how it is arrived at. As the author points out, "warning does not exist until it has been conveyed to the policymaker, and ... he must know that he has been warned."
Book Synopsis Warning Analysis for the Information Age by : John Bodnar
Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age written by John Bodnar and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-01-18 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book bequeaths to the Defense Intelligence Agency, and to the Intelligence Community at large, a substantiated vision, with examples, of how analysts can exploit already-available, massive databases to tackle many of the most vexing problems that we face. Dr. Bodnar builds on the earlier work and insight of Cynthia Grabo, whose book "Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning" was recently published by the Joint Military Intelligence College's Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. The author also usefully integrates into this book the often-cited but rarely-seen original work of the USAF's strategic and operational philosopher Colonel John Boyd. Together with the accompanying, classified case studies that are available to the Community on Intelink, this book reaches farther than any other toward the objective of bringing together substantive expertise with an accessible, methodologically sound analytical strategy in the service of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Those who go on to apply this method will not only derive fresh understanding from existing data, but will also be able to guide future intelligence collection in an appropriately frugal fashion.
Book Synopsis Weak Signals for Strategic Intelligence by : Humbert Lesca
Download or read book Weak Signals for Strategic Intelligence written by Humbert Lesca and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-01-09 with total page 147 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The expression: "We did not see it coming!" has often been heard in recent years from decision makers at the highest levels of responsibility in the private and public sectors. Yet there were actually early (warning) signals, but they were often ignored or not used due to a lack of appropriate methodology. To avoid such blind spots, this book provides answers to the question "how to anticipate". The concept of a "weak signal" is at the heart of the proposed methods. After presenting examples of this concept, the authors provide original and validated answers to questions of feasibility: How to recognize a weak signal? How to exploit it? Numerous applications are presented.
Book Synopsis Warning Analysis for the Information Age by : John W. Bodnar
Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age written by John W. Bodnar and published by Military Bookshop. This book was released on 2013-08 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book bequeaths to the Defense Intelligence Agency, and to the Intelligence Community at large, a substantiated vision, with examples, of how analysts can exploit already-available, massive databases to tackle many of the most vexing problems that we face. Dr. Bodnar builds on the earlier work and insight of Cynthia Grabo, whose book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning was recently published by the Joint Military Intelligence College's Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. The author also usefully integrates into this book the often-cited but rarely-seen original work of the USAF's strategic and operational philosopher Colonel John Boyd.
Book Synopsis Anticipating Surprise by : Cynthia Grabo
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia Grabo and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2013-04-03 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assigned to the National Indications Center, Cynthia Grabo served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and in its successor, the Strategic Warning Staff. During this time she saw the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. With three decades of experience in the Intelligence Community, she saw intelligence and warning failures in Korea, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Cuba. In the summer of 1972, the DIA published her "Handbook of Warning Intelligence" as a classified document, followed by two additional classified volumes, one in the fall of 1972 and the last in 1974. These declassified books have now been condensed from the original three volumes into this one. Ms. Grabo's authoritative interpretation of an appropriate analytic strategy for intelligence-based warning is here presented in a commercial reprint of this classic study. (Originally published by the Joint Military Intelligence College)
Book Synopsis Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning by : Cynthia M. Grabo
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2012-08-12 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assigned to the National Indications Center, Cynthia Grabo served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and in its successor, the Strategic Warning Staff. During this time she saw the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. With three decades of experience in the Intelligence Community, she saw intelligence and warning failures in Korea, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Cuba. In the summer of 1972, the DIA published her "Handbook of Warning Intelligence" as a classified document, followed by two additional classified volumes, one in the fall of 1972 and the last in 1974. These declassified books have now been condensed from the original three volumes into this one. Ms. Grabo's authoritative interpretation of an appropriate analytic strategy for intelligence-based warning is here presented in a commercial reprint of this classic study. (Originally published by the Joint Military Intelligence College)
Book Synopsis Warning Analysis for the Information Age: Rethinking the Intelligence Process by :
Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age: Rethinking the Intelligence Process written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book bequeaths to the Defense Intelligence Agency, and to the Intelligence Community at large, a substantiated vision, with examples, of how analysts can exploit already-available, massive databases to tackle many of the most vexing problems that we face. Dr. Bodnar builds on the earlier work and insight of Cynthia Grabo, whose book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning [ADA476752] was recently published by the Joint Military Intelligence College's Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. The author also usefully integrates into this book the often-cited but rarely-seen original work of the USAF's strategic and operational philosopher Colonel John Boyd. This book reaches farther than any other toward the objective of bringing together substantive expertise with an accessible, methodologically sound analytical strategy in the service of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Those who go on to apply this method will not only derive fresh understanding from existing data, but will also be able to guide future intelligence collection in an appropriately frugal fashion.
Book Synopsis Protective Intelligence and Threat Assessment Investigations by : Robert A. Fein
Download or read book Protective Intelligence and Threat Assessment Investigations written by Robert A. Fein and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
