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Anticipating Surprise Analysis For Strategic Warning
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Book Synopsis Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning by : Cynthia M. Grabo
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2012-08-12 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assigned to the National Indications Center, Cynthia Grabo served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and in its successor, the Strategic Warning Staff. During this time she saw the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. With three decades of experience in the Intelligence Community, she saw intelligence and warning failures in Korea, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Cuba. In the summer of 1972, the DIA published her "Handbook of Warning Intelligence" as a classified document, followed by two additional classified volumes, one in the fall of 1972 and the last in 1974. These declassified books have now been condensed from the original three volumes into this one. Ms. Grabo's authoritative interpretation of an appropriate analytic strategy for intelligence-based warning is here presented in a commercial reprint of this classic study. (Originally published by the Joint Military Intelligence College)
Book Synopsis Anticipating Surprise by : Cynthia M. Grabo
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Anticipating Surprise by : Cynthia Grabo
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia Grabo and published by Historical Studies. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Anticipating Surprise, originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts during the Cold War, has been declassified and condensed to provide wider audiences with an inside look at intelligence gathering and analysis for strategic warning. Cynthia Grabo defines the essential steps in the warning process, examines distinctive ingredients of the analytic method of intelligence gathering, and discusses the guidelines for assessing the meaning of gathered information. Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on America, intelligence collection and analysis has been hotly debated. In this book, Grabo suggests ways of improving warning assessments that better convey warnings to policymakers and military commanders who are responsible for taking appropriate action to avert disaster.
Book Synopsis Anticipating Surprise by : Cynthia Grabo
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia Grabo and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2013-04-03 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assigned to the National Indications Center, Cynthia Grabo served as a senior researcher and writer for the U.S. Watch Committee throughout its existence (1950 to 1975), and in its successor, the Strategic Warning Staff. During this time she saw the need to capture the institutional memory associated with strategic warning. With three decades of experience in the Intelligence Community, she saw intelligence and warning failures in Korea, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Cuba. In the summer of 1972, the DIA published her "Handbook of Warning Intelligence" as a classified document, followed by two additional classified volumes, one in the fall of 1972 and the last in 1974. These declassified books have now been condensed from the original three volumes into this one. Ms. Grabo's authoritative interpretation of an appropriate analytic strategy for intelligence-based warning is here presented in a commercial reprint of this classic study. (Originally published by the Joint Military Intelligence College)
Book Synopsis Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning by :
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Warning is a skill unto itself, requiring an understanding of the attitudes and disciplines of potential adversaries as well as their capabilities, their history, their culture and their biases. In an era of asymmetric warfare in which our national security and well being can be seriously threatened by hostile groups as well as nations, it is imperative that lessons from the past not be forgotten and the discipline of warning reinvigorated. Warning intelligence differs significantly from current intelligence and the preparation of long-range estimates. It accepts the presumption of surprise and incomplete intelligence and requires exhaustive research upon which to build the case for specific warning. Relationships among events or involving the players may not be readily evident at first and initial signs often consist of fragmentary evidence, conflicting reports, or an absence of something. It is not merely a compilation of facts. It is an abstraction, an intangible, a perception or a belief. While a specific methodology for developing warning may have been tailored to the needs of the Cold War, the same principles apply even to asymmetric conflict. This updated and revised edition of an earlier, classified publication is an excellent primer for both intelligence analysts and policymakers. Events have shown that accurate and timely warning has most often been produced by a minority viewpoint brought to the attention of decisionmakers in some way; it is not the product of a majority consensus. In the rush to build new intelligence mechanisms to combat terrorist attacks and to provide warning for the homeland as well as for forces deployed, the nation and the Intelligence Community would be well served by reviewing this book to gain an understanding of what constitutes warning and how it is arrived at. As the author points out, "warning does not exist until it has been conveyed to the policymaker, and ... he must know that he has been warned."
Book Synopsis Warning Analysis for the Information Age by : John Bodnar
Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age written by John Bodnar and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-01-18 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book bequeaths to the Defense Intelligence Agency, and to the Intelligence Community at large, a substantiated vision, with examples, of how analysts can exploit already-available, massive databases to tackle many of the most vexing problems that we face. Dr. Bodnar builds on the earlier work and insight of Cynthia Grabo, whose book "Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning" was recently published by the Joint Military Intelligence College's Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. The author also usefully integrates into this book the often-cited but rarely-seen original work of the USAF's strategic and operational philosopher Colonel John Boyd. Together with the accompanying, classified case studies that are available to the Community on Intelink, this book reaches farther than any other toward the objective of bringing together substantive expertise with an accessible, methodologically sound analytical strategy in the service of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Those who go on to apply this method will not only derive fresh understanding from existing data, but will also be able to guide future intelligence collection in an appropriately frugal fashion.
Book Synopsis Warning Analysis for the Information Age by : John W. Bodnar
Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age written by John W. Bodnar and published by Military Bookshop. This book was released on 2013-08 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book bequeaths to the Defense Intelligence Agency, and to the Intelligence Community at large, a substantiated vision, with examples, of how analysts can exploit already-available, massive databases to tackle many of the most vexing problems that we face. Dr. Bodnar builds on the earlier work and insight of Cynthia Grabo, whose book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning was recently published by the Joint Military Intelligence College's Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. The author also usefully integrates into this book the often-cited but rarely-seen original work of the USAF's strategic and operational philosopher Colonel John Boyd.
Book Synopsis Warning Analysis for the Information Age: Rethinking the Intelligence Process by :
Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age: Rethinking the Intelligence Process written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book bequeaths to the Defense Intelligence Agency, and to the Intelligence Community at large, a substantiated vision, with examples, of how analysts can exploit already-available, massive databases to tackle many of the most vexing problems that we face. Dr. Bodnar builds on the earlier work and insight of Cynthia Grabo, whose book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning [ADA476752] was recently published by the Joint Military Intelligence College's Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. The author also usefully integrates into this book the often-cited but rarely-seen original work of the USAF's strategic and operational philosopher Colonel John Boyd. This book reaches farther than any other toward the objective of bringing together substantive expertise with an accessible, methodologically sound analytical strategy in the service of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Those who go on to apply this method will not only derive fresh understanding from existing data, but will also be able to guide future intelligence collection in an appropriately frugal fashion.
Book Synopsis Warning Analysis for the Information Age: Rethinking the Intelligence Process by :
Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age: Rethinking the Intelligence Process written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book bequeaths to the Defense Intelligence Agency, and to the Intelligence Community at large, a substantiated vision, with examples, of how analysts can exploit already-available, massive databases to tackle many of the most vexing problems that we face. Dr. Bodnar builds on the earlier work and insight of Cynthia Grabo, whose book Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning [ADA476752] was recently published by the Joint Military Intelligence College's Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. The author also usefully integrates into this book the often-cited but rarely-seen original work of the USAF's strategic and operational philosopher Colonel John Boyd. This book reaches farther than any other toward the objective of bringing together substantive expertise with an accessible, methodologically sound analytical strategy in the service of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Those who go on to apply this method will not only derive fresh understanding from existing data, but will also be able to guide future intelligence collection in an appropriately frugal fashion.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Warning Intelligence by : Cynthia Grabo
Download or read book Handbook of Warning Intelligence written by Cynthia Grabo and published by Scarecrow Press. This book was released on 2010-03-16 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Warning Intelligence: Assessing the Threat to National Security was written during the Cold War and classified for 40 years, this manual is now available to scholars and practitioners interested in both history and intelligence. Cynthia Grabo, author of the abridged version, Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, goes into detail on the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting. The book discusses the problems of military analysis, problems of understanding specific problems of political, civil and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment."
Book Synopsis Strategic Warning Intelligence by : John A. Gentry
Download or read book Strategic Warning Intelligence written by John A. Gentry and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2019-03-01 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John A. Gentry and Joseph S. Gordon update our understanding of strategic warning intelligence analysis for the twenty-first century. Strategic warning—the process of long-range analysis to alert senior leaders to trending threats and opportunities that require action—is a critical intelligence function. It also is frequently misunderstood and underappreciated. Gentry and Gordon draw on both their practitioner and academic backgrounds to present a history of the strategic warning function in the US intelligence community. In doing so, they outline the capabilities of analytic methods, explain why strategic warning analysis is so hard, and discuss the special challenges strategic warning encounters from senior decision-makers. They also compare how strategic warning functions in other countries, evaluate why the United States has in recent years emphasized current intelligence instead of strategic warning, and recommend warning-related structural and procedural improvements in the US intelligence community. The authors examine historical case studies, including postmortems of warning failures, to provide examples of the analytic points they make. Strategic Warning Intelligence will interest scholars and practitioners and will be an ideal teaching text for intermediate and advanced students.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Warning Intelligence by : Cynthia Grabo
Download or read book Handbook of Warning Intelligence written by Cynthia Grabo and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2015-09-09 with total page 455 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new and final edition is a follow-up to the author’s first book, Anticipating Surprise (University Press of America, 2002) and the Handbook of Warning Intelligence (Scarecrow Press, 2010). The first book was an abridged version of Grabo’s 1972 manuscript, of which only 200 pages were allowed to be published by the government. The second book was published after it was agreed that the last 10 chapters would remain classified. These final 10 chapters have recently been released by the government and complete the manuscript as it was originally intended to be published by the author in 1972. The Handbook of Warning Intelligence was written during the cold war and was classified for 40 years. Originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts, it explains the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting, discusses military analysis, as well as the difficulties in understanding political, civil, and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment." Much of what Grabo wrote in her book seems to appear in many of the numerous commission reports that emerged after the 9/11 attacks. However, her book was written in response to the "surprise attack" of the Soviet Union's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. According to the author, that event was no surprise. And while analysts have to take some of the blame for their failure to strenuously present their case that the threat was real and imminent, what occurred was a failure by policymakers to listen to the warning intelligence reports that were written at the time. In these last chapters, Grabo discusses scenarios where the United States will need to take action, especially describing Soviet indicators of such action. She also talks on how to influence policymakers to take, or not take, action based on intelligence. After the Soviet Union fell, the government was hesitant to release this information—especially considering what's going on with Putin today.
Book Synopsis We Never Expected That by : Avner Barnea
Download or read book We Never Expected That written by Avner Barnea and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2021-08-30 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The disciplines of strategic intelligence at the governmental level and competitive business intelligence constitute accepted methods of decision-supporting to prevent mistakes and strategic surprise. This research discovered that many researchers in the intelligence field feel that intelligence methodology in both contexts has reached a “glass ceiling.” Thus far, research has focused separately on national intelligence and intelligence in business, without any attempt to benchmark from one field to the other. This book shows that it is possible to use experience gained in the business field to improve intelligence practices in national security, and vice versa through mutual learning. The book’s main innovation is its proposition that mutual learning can be employed in the context of a model distinguishes between concentrated and diffused surprises to provide a breakthrough in the intelligence field, thereby facilitating better prediction of the surprise development. We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence focuses on a comparison between how states, through their intelligence organizations, cope with strategic surprises and how business organizations deal with unexpected movement in their field. Based on this comparison, the author proposes a new model which can better address the challenge of avoiding strategic surprises. This book can contribute significantly to the study of intelligence, which will become more influential in the coming years.
Book Synopsis Harnessing the Power of Intelligence, Counterintelligence & Surprise Events by : Alain Paul Martin
Download or read book Harnessing the Power of Intelligence, Counterintelligence & Surprise Events written by Alain Paul Martin and published by Professional Dev Inst Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Full of practical illustrations from business, government and the military, this book covers the organization, leadership, tools and culture of intelligence. It reveals new instruments, platforms and breakthrough concepts to address intelligence issues at national and corporate levels. It can help companies use intelligence to win customers and allies, and shield their assets from adversaries. Its focus is on detecting threats and opportunities, by legal and ethical means, and earlier than can be learned through reliable media. Readers will learn how to orchestrate and hitchhike on surprise events to create value. Based on Harvard University Global System? management road maps pioneered by the author, the book features extensive endnotes and Web sites, a bibliography, a book index and colorful Harvard road maps on strategy and risk. The book is suitable for general audiences. Technical terms are explained thoroughly. Some stories could be used to stimulate discussions and give college students a primer on intelligence. Real-life examples about people and important issues will be fun to read, talk about, both at work and at home. As Harvard Emeritus Professor William J. Bruns said: "Martin has created a framework and processes that anyone or any organization can adapt and use to create information and intelligence that will prevent or reduce unpleasant surprises in their lives or work."
Author :John W. Bodnar Publisher :Joint Military Intelligence College Center for Strategic Intelligence Research ISBN 13 : Total Pages :208 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (31 download)
Book Synopsis Warning Analysis for the Information Age by : John W. Bodnar
Download or read book Warning Analysis for the Information Age written by John W. Bodnar and published by Joint Military Intelligence College Center for Strategic Intelligence Research. This book was released on 2003 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Looks at the challenges posed to the intelligence community by the changed strategic circumstances of the information age.
Book Synopsis Warning about War by : Christoph O. Meyer
Download or read book Warning about War written by Christoph O. Meyer and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-08-29 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how and when public and non-public warnings about future conflicts affect decision-making in Western states and international organisations.
Download or read book Ethics of Spying written by Jan Goldman and published by Scarecrow Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Intelligence professionals are employees of the government working in a business that some would consider unethical-the business of spying. This book looks at the dilemmas that exist when one is asked to perform a civil service that is in conflict with what that individual believes to be "ethical." This is the first book to offer the best essays, articles, and speeches on ethics and intelligence that demonstrate the complex moral dilemmas in intelligence collection, analysis, and operations that confront government employees. Some are recently declassified and never before published, and all are written by authors whose backgrounds are as varied as their insights, including Robert M. Gates, former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency; John P. Langan, the Joseph Cardinal Bernardin Professor of Catholic Social Thought at the Kennedy Institute of Ethics, Georgetown University; and Loch K. Johnson, Regents Professor of Political Science at the University of Georgia and recipient of the Owens Award for contributions to the understanding of U.S. intelligence activities. To the intelligence professional, this is a valuable collection of literature for building an ethical code that is not dependent on any specific agency, department, or country. Managers, supervisors, and employees of all levels should read this book. Creating the foundation for the study of ethics and intelligence by filling in the gap between warfare and philosophy, Ethics of Spying makes the statement that the intelligence professional has ethics.
