Intelligence And Surprise Attack

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Intelligence and Surprise Attack

Author : Erik J. Dahl
Publisher : Georgetown University Press
ISBN 13 : 1589019989
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence and Surprise Attack by : Erik J. Dahl

Download or read book Intelligence and Surprise Attack written by Erik J. Dahl and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2013-07-19 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings.

Surprise Attack

Author : Richard K. Betts
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
ISBN 13 : 9780815719472
Total Pages : 340 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Surprise Attack by : Richard K. Betts

Download or read book Surprise Attack written by Richard K. Betts and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Long before Germany's blitzkrieg swept the West, European leaders had received many signals of its imminence. Stalin, too, had abundant warning of German designs on Russia but believed that by avoiding "provocative" defensive measures he could avert the attack that finally came in June 1941. And the stories of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and three Arab-Israeli conflicts are replete with missed opportunities to react to unmistakable warnings. Richad K. Betts analyzes surprise attacks during the mid-twentieth century to illustrate his thesis: surprise attacks occur, not because intelligence services fail to warn, but because of the disbelief of political leaders. "Although the probability is low that the United States will fail to deter direct attack by the Soviet Union," Betts says, "the intensity of the threat warrants painstaking analysis of how to cope with it." His own investigation of the historical, psychological, political, diplomatic, and military aspects of his subject heightens understanding of why surprise attacks succeed and why victim nations fail to respond to warnings. In discussing current policy he focuses on the defense of Western Europe and applies the lessons of history to U.S. defense planning, offering detailed recommendations for changes in strategy. Obviously some of the potential dangers of military surprise cannot be prevented. The important thing, he emphasizes, is that "without forces that exceed requirements (the solution Moscow appears to have chosen), it is vital to ensure that what forces exist can be brought to bear when needed.

Preventing Surprise Attacks

Author : Richard A. Posner
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 9780742549470
Total Pages : 242 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (494 download)

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Book Synopsis Preventing Surprise Attacks by : Richard A. Posner

Download or read book Preventing Surprise Attacks written by Richard A. Posner and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2005 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Posner discusses the utter futilty of this reform act in a searing critique of the 9/11 Commission, its recommendations, Congress's role in making law, and the law's inability to do what it is intended to do.

Surprise Attack

Author : Ephraim KAM
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674039297
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis Surprise Attack by : Ephraim KAM

Download or read book Surprise Attack written by Ephraim KAM and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-30 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints. Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny. --Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of Israel

Surprise Attack

Author : Larry Hancock
Publisher : Catapult
ISBN 13 : 161902795X
Total Pages : 577 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Surprise Attack by : Larry Hancock

Download or read book Surprise Attack written by Larry Hancock and published by Catapult. This book was released on 2016-09-13 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Surprise Attack explores sixty plus years of military and terror threats against the United States. It examines the intelligence tools and practices that provided warnings of those attacks and evaluates the United States' responses, both in preparedness – and most importantly – the effectiveness of our military and national command authority. Contrary to common claims, the historical record now shows that warnings, often very solid warnings, have preceded almost all such attacks, both domestic and international. Intelligence practices developed early in the Cold War, along with intelligence collection techniques have consistently produced accurate warnings for our national security decision makers. Surprise Attack traces the evolution and application of those practices and explores why such warnings have often failed to either interdict or intercept actual attacks. Going beyond warnings, Surprise Attack explores the real world performance of the nation's military and civilian command and control history – exposing disconnects in the chain of command, failures of command and control and fundamental performance issues with national command authority. America has faced an ongoing series of threats, from the attacks on Hawaii and the Philippines in 1941, through the crises and confrontations of the Cold War, global attacks on American personnel and facilities to the contemporary violence of jihadi terrorism. With a detailed study of those threats, the attacks related to them, and America's response, a picture of what works – and what doesn't – emerges. The attacks have been tragic and we see the defensive preparations and response often ineffective. Yet lessons can be learned from the experience; Surprise Attack represents a comprehensive effort to identify and document those lessons.

Pearl Harbor

Author : Roberta Wohlstetter
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780804705981
Total Pages : 454 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (59 download)

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Book Synopsis Pearl Harbor by : Roberta Wohlstetter

Download or read book Pearl Harbor written by Roberta Wohlstetter and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 1962 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This account of the Pearl Harbor attack denies that the lack of preparation resulted from military negligence or a political plot

Surprise Attack

Author : Larry Hancock
Publisher : Catapult
ISBN 13 : 1619026570
Total Pages : 464 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Surprise Attack by : Larry Hancock

Download or read book Surprise Attack written by Larry Hancock and published by Catapult. This book was released on 2015-09-01 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Surprise Attack explores sixty plus years of military and terror threats against the United States. It examines the intelligence tools and practices that provided warnings of those attacks and evaluates the United States' responses, both in preparedness – and most importantly – the effectiveness of our military and national command authority. Contrary to common claims, the historical record now shows that warnings, often very solid warnings, have preceded almost all such attacks, both domestic and international. Intelligence practices developed early in the Cold War, along with intelligence collection techniques have consistently produced accurate warnings for our national security decision makers. Surprise Attack traces the evolution and application of those practices and explores why such warnings have often failed to either interdict or intercept actual attacks. Going beyond warnings, Surprise Attack explores the real world performance of the nation's military and civilian command and control history – exposing disconnects in the chain of command, failures of command and control and fundamental performance issues with national command authority. America has faced an ongoing series of threats, from the attacks on Hawaii and the Philippines in 1941, through the crises and confrontations of the Cold War, global attacks on American personnel and facilities to the contemporary violence of jihadi terrorism. With a detailed study of those threats, the attacks related to them, and America's response, a picture of what works – and what doesn't – emerges. The attacks have been tragic and we see the defensive preparations and response often ineffective. Yet lessons can be learned from the experience; Surprise Attack represents a comprehensive effort to identify and document those lessons.

Intelligence Success and Failure

Author : Uri Bar-Joseph
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 019067699X
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (96 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence Success and Failure by : Uri Bar-Joseph

Download or read book Intelligence Success and Failure written by Uri Bar-Joseph and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-03-03 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of strategic surprise has long concentrated on important failures that resulted in catastrophes such as Pearl Harbor and the September 11th attacks, and the majority of previously published research in the field determines that such large-scale military failures often stem from defective information-processing systems. Intelligence Success and Failure challenges this common assertion that catastrophic surprise attacks are the unmistakable products of warning failure alone. Further, Uri Bar-Joseph and Rose McDermott approach this topic uniquely by highlighting the successful cases of strategic surprise, as well as the failures, from a psychological perspective. This book delineates the critical role of individual psychopathologies in precipitating failure by investigating important historical cases. Bar-Joseph and McDermott use six particular military attacks as examples for their analysis, including: "Barbarossa," the June 1941 German invasion of the USSR (failure); the fall-winter 1941 battle for Moscow (success); the Arab attack on Israel on Yom Kippur 1973 (failure); and the second Egyptian offensive in the war six days later (success). From these specific cases and others, they analyze the psychological mechanisms through which leaders assess their own fatal mistakes and use the intelligence available to them. Their research examines the factors that contribute to failure and success in responding to strategic surprise and identify the learning process that central decision makers use to facilitate subsequent successes. Intelligence Success and Failure presents a new theory in the study of strategic surprise that claims the key explanation for warning failure is not unintentional action, but rather, motivated biases in key intelligence and central leaders that null any sense of doubt prior to surprise attacks.

Ambush

Author : Rose Mary Sheldon
Publisher : Casemate Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1783036486
Total Pages : 448 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (83 download)

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Book Synopsis Ambush by : Rose Mary Sheldon

Download or read book Ambush written by Rose Mary Sheldon and published by Casemate Publishers. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A historian of military intelligence presents a revelatory account of ancient Greek battle tactics, including the use of espionage and irregular warfare. There are two images of warfare that dominate Greek history. The better known is that of Achilles, the Homeric hero skilled in face-to-face combat and outraged by deception on the battlefield. The alternative model, also taken from Homeric epic, is Odysseus, ‘the man of twists and turns’ who saw no shame in winning by stealth, surprise or deceit. It is common for popular writers to assume that the hoplite phalanx was the only mode of warfare used by the Greeks. The fact is, however, that the use of spies, intelligence gathering, ambush, and surprise attacks at dawn or at night were also a part of Greek warfare. While such tactics were not the supreme method of defeating an enemy, they were routinely employed when the opportunity presented itself.

Uncertain Shield

Author : Richard A. Posner
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 9780742551275
Total Pages : 274 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (512 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertain Shield by : Richard A. Posner

Download or read book Uncertain Shield written by Richard A. Posner and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2006 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new book from Richard Posner brings the story up to date. He argues that the emerging structure of that reformed intelligence system-heavily influenced by the report of another commission on the intelligence failure related to Saddam Hussein's abandonment of weapons of mass destruction-is excessively centralized and will not be effective. Posner brings light to the issues at hand and offers solutions.

Understanding Intelligence Failure

Author : James J. Wirtz
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317375726
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (173 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Intelligence Failure by : James J. Wirtz

Download or read book Understanding Intelligence Failure written by James J. Wirtz and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-11-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection, comprising key works by James J. Wirtz, explains how different threat perceptions can lead to strategic surprise attack, intelligence failure and the failure of deterrence. This volume adopts a strategist’s view of the issue of surprise and intelligence failure by placing these phenomena in the context of conflict between strong and weak actors in world affairs. A two-level theory explains the incentives and perceptions of both parties when significant imbalances of military power exist between potential combatants, and how this situation sets the stage for strategic surprise and intelligence failure to occur. The volume illustrates this theory by applying it to the Kargil Crisis, attacks launched by non-state actors, and by offering a comparison of Pearl Harbor and the September 11, 2001 attacks. It explores the phenomenon of deterrence failure; specifically, how weaker parties in an enduring or nascent conflict come to believe that deterrent threats posed by militarily stronger antagonists will be undermined by various constraints, increasing the attractiveness of utilising surprise attack to achieve their objectives. This work also offers strategies that could mitigate the occurrence of intelligence failure, strategic surprise and the failure of deterrence. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, security studies and IR in general.

Front-line Intelligence

Author : Stedman Chandler
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Front-line Intelligence by : Stedman Chandler

Download or read book Front-line Intelligence written by Stedman Chandler and published by . This book was released on 1946 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Intelligence

Author : Mark M. Lowenthal
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1506379575
Total Pages : 501 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (63 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence by : Mark M. Lowenthal

Download or read book Intelligence written by Mark M. Lowenthal and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2016-09-29 with total page 501 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mark M. Lowenthal’s trusted guide is the go-to resource for understanding how the intelligence community’s history, structure, procedures, and functions affect policy decisions. In this Seventh Edition, Lowenthal examines cyber space and the issues it presents to the intelligence community such as defining cyber as a new collection discipline; the implications of the Senate Intelligence Committee’s staff report on enhanced interrogation techniques; the rise of the Islamic State; and the issues surrounding the nuclear agreement with Iran. New sections have been added offering a brief summary of the major laws governing U.S. intelligence today such as domestic intelligence collection, whistleblowers vs. leakers, and the growing field of financial intelligence.

Intelligence and Strategic Surprises

Author : Ariel Levite
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780231063746
Total Pages : 252 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (637 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence and Strategic Surprises by : Ariel Levite

Download or read book Intelligence and Strategic Surprises written by Ariel Levite and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 1987 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Handbook of Warning Intelligence

Author : Cynthia Grabo
Publisher : Scarecrow Press
ISBN 13 : 0810870959
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (18 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Warning Intelligence by : Cynthia Grabo

Download or read book Handbook of Warning Intelligence written by Cynthia Grabo and published by Scarecrow Press. This book was released on 2010-03-16 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Warning Intelligence: Assessing the Threat to National Security was written during the Cold War and classified for 40 years, this manual is now available to scholars and practitioners interested in both history and intelligence. Cynthia Grabo, author of the abridged version, Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning, goes into detail on the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting. The book discusses the problems of military analysis, problems of understanding specific problems of political, civil and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment."

Preventing Surprise Attacks

Author : Richard A. Posner
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1461666058
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (616 download)

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Book Synopsis Preventing Surprise Attacks by : Richard A. Posner

Download or read book Preventing Surprise Attacks written by Richard A. Posner and published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. This book was released on 2005-03-22 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The commission to investigate the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States issued its final report in July of 2004, in which it recommended a dramatic overhaul of the nation's intelligence system. Congress responded by hastily enacting the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004, which adopts many of the 9/11 commission's specific recommendations, though with a number of alterations. Richard A. Posner, in the first full-length study of the post-9/11 movement for intelligence reform, argues that the 9/11 commission's analysis, on which Congress relied, was superficial and its organizational proposals unsound. The commission, followed by Congress, exaggerated the benefits of centralizing control over intelligence; neglected the relevant scholarship dealing with surprise attacks, organization theory, the principles of intelligence, and the experience of foreign nations, some of which have a longer history of fighting terrorism than the United States; and as a result ignored the psychological, economic, historical, sociological, and comparative dimensions of the issue of intelligence reform. Posner explains, however, that a ray of hope remains: the reorganization provisions of the new Act are so vague, as a result of intense politicking, that the actual shape of the reorganized system will depend critically on decisions made by the President in implementing the Act. In a searing critique, Posner exposes the pitfalls created by the new legislation, identifies the issues overlooked by the 9/11 commission and Congress, and suggests directions for real reform. This book is published in cooperation with the Hoover Institution

Pearl Harbor Declassified

Author : James M. D’Angelo
Publisher : McFarland
ISBN 13 : 1476642370
Total Pages : 235 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (766 download)

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Book Synopsis Pearl Harbor Declassified by : James M. D’Angelo

Download or read book Pearl Harbor Declassified written by James M. D’Angelo and published by McFarland. This book was released on 2021-07-26 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Did President Roosevelt and other high-ranking U.S. government officials know about Japanese plans to attack Pearl Harbor, and fail to warn U.S. Navy leadership? Drawing on recently declassified materials and revelations from other writers, this book traces the flow of intelligence and concludes the imminent attack was allowed to happen to win the support of the American public in a war against Japan. An epilogue describes the fate of Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Pacific Fleet Admiral Husband E. Kimmel, the intelligence he received from Washington before the attack, and the intelligence he did not.