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Risk And Presidential Decision Making
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Book Synopsis Risk and Presidential Decision-making by : Luca Trenta
Download or read book Risk and Presidential Decision-making written by Luca Trenta and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-05-20 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims at gauging whether the nature of US foreign policy decision-making has changed after the Cold War as radically as a large body of literature seems to suggest, and develops a new framework to interpret presidential decision-making in foreign policy. It locates the study of risk in US foreign policy in a wider intellectual landscape that draws on contemporary debates in historiography, international relations and Presidential studies. Based on developments in the health and environment literature, the book identifies the President as the ultimate risk-manager, demonstrating how a President is called to perform a delicate balancing act between risks on the domestic/political side and risks on the strategic/international side. Every decision represents a ‘risk vs. risk trade-off,’ in which the management of one ‘target risk’ leads to the development ‘countervailing risks.’ The book applies this framework to the study three major crises in US foreign policy: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979, and the massacre at Srebrenica in 1995. Each case-study results from substantial archival research and over twenty interviews with policymakers and academics, including former President Jimmy Carter and former Senator Bob Dole. This book is ideal for postgraduate researchers and academics in US foreign policy, foreign policy decision-making and the US Presidency as well as Departments and Institutes dealing with the study of risk in the social sciences. The case studies will also be of great use to undergraduate students.
Book Synopsis Presidential Leadership, Illness, and Decision Making by : Rose McDermott
Download or read book Presidential Leadership, Illness, and Decision Making written by Rose McDermott and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2007-12-03 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines the impact of medical and psychological illness on foreign policy decision making. Illness provides specific, predictable, and recognizable shifts in attention, time perspective, cognitive capacity, judgment, and emotion, which systematically affect impaired leaders. In particular, this book discusses the ways in which processes related to aging, physical and psychological illness, and addiction influence decision making. This book provides detailed analysis of four cases among the American presidency. Woodrow Wilson's October 1919 stroke affected his behavior during the Senate fight over ratifying the League of Nations. Franklin Roosevelt's severe coronary disease influenced his decisions concerning the conduct of war in the Pacific from 1943–1945 in particular. John Kennedy's illnesses and treatments altered his behavior at the 1961 Vienna conference with Soviet Premier Khrushchev. And Nixon's psychological impairments biased his decisions regarding the covert bombing of Cambodia in 1969–1970.
Book Synopsis Risk and Presidential Decision-making by : Luca Trenta
Download or read book Risk and Presidential Decision-making written by Luca Trenta and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-05-20 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book aims at gauging whether the nature of US foreign policy decision-making has changed after the Cold War as radically as a large body of literature seems to suggest, and develops a new framework to interpret presidential decision-making in foreign policy. It locates the study of risk in US foreign policy in a wider intellectual landscape that draws on contemporary debates in historiography, international relations and Presidential studies. Based on developments in the health and environment literature, the book identifies the President as the ultimate risk-manager, demonstrating how a President is called to perform a delicate balancing act between risks on the domestic/political side and risks on the strategic/international side. Every decision represents a ‘risk vs. risk trade-off,’ in which the management of one ‘target risk’ leads to the development ‘countervailing risks.’ The book applies this framework to the study three major crises in US foreign policy: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979, and the massacre at Srebrenica in 1995. Each case-study results from substantial archival research and over twenty interviews with policymakers and academics, including former President Jimmy Carter and former Senator Bob Dole. This book is ideal for postgraduate researchers and academics in US foreign policy, foreign policy decision-making and the US Presidency as well as Departments and Institutes dealing with the study of risk in the social sciences. The case studies will also be of great use to undergraduate students.
Book Synopsis Risk-Taking in International Politics by : Rose McDermott
Download or read book Risk-Taking in International Politics written by Rose McDermott and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses the way leaders deal with risk in making foreign policy decisions
Book Synopsis Introduction to Risk Analysis by : Daniel M. Byrd
Download or read book Introduction to Risk Analysis written by Daniel M. Byrd and published by Government Institutes. This book was released on 2000-08-01 with total page 463 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written for safety and loss-control, environmental, and quality managers, this is the first comprehensive, integrated guide to developing a complete environmental risk analysis for regulated substances and processes. Unlike other books, Introduction to Risk Analysis looks at risk from a regulatory perspective, allowing both professionals in regulatory agencies concerned with risk_including OSHA, EPA, USDA, DOT, FDA, and state environmental agencies_and professionals in any agency-regulated industry to understand and implement the methods required for proper risk assessment. The authors examine risk and the structure of analysis. Emphasizing the predictive nature of risk, they discuss the quantitative nature of risk and explore quantitative-analysis topics, including data graphing, logarithmic thinking, risk estimating, and curve fitting. Chapters include discussions on functions, models, and uncertainties; the regulatory process; risk assessment; exposure; dosimetry; epidemiology; toxicology; risk characterization; comparative risk assessment; ecological risk assessment; risk management; and risk communication. Six in-depth case studies, an annotated bibliography, and more than 50 figures are also included.
Book Synopsis Mending the Broken Dialogue by : Janine A. Davidson
Download or read book Mending the Broken Dialogue written by Janine A. Davidson and published by Council on Foreign Relations. This book was released on 2016-11-01 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although friction often frustrates civil-military relations, it is an inevitable and important part of the policymaking process. The system breaks down when there is too much friction or too little: when civilian and military leaders descend into open conflict or when one side acquiesces to the other and embraces groupthink. The system works best when both sides in the civil-military dialogue are able to speak candidly in an environment that fosters empathy and empowerment.
Book Synopsis Science and Decisions by : National Research Council
Download or read book Science and Decisions written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-03-24 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.
Book Synopsis U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes by : Stephen Walker
Download or read book U.S. Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes written by Stephen Walker and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-15 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, the authors offer a map for diagnosing foreign policy mistakes and a compass for steering clear of them.
Book Synopsis Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making by : Alex Mintz
Download or read book Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making written by Alex Mintz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-22 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making presents a psychological approach to foreign policy decision making. This approach focuses on the decision process, dynamics, and outcome. The book includes a wealth of extended real-world case studies and examples that are woven into the text. The cases and examples, which are written in an accessible style, include decisions made by leaders of the United States, Israel, New Zealand, Cuba, Iceland, United Kingdom, and others. In addition to coverage of the rational model of decision making, levels of analysis of foreign policy decision making, and types of decisions, the book includes extensive material on alternatives to the rational choice model, the marketing and framing of decisions, cognitive biases, and domestic, cultural, and international influences on decision making in international affairs. Existing textbooks do not present such an approach to foreign policy decision making, international relations, American foreign policy, and comparative foreign policy.
Book Synopsis Risk and Resolution by : R. Greg Brown
Download or read book Risk and Resolution written by R. Greg Brown and published by Page Publishing Inc. This book was released on 2019-05-20 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: America repeatedly finds itself mired in military interventions long after public buy-in to the national interest has waned. Why is the timely disengagement of military forces so difficult to achieve? Traditional international relations theories diminish the role of the individual leader in favor of the state or international institutions. Behavioral science theories have in recent years experienced a resurgence. However, the dominant behavioral explanation of foreign policy decision-making, prospect theory, while it focuses on how people tend to make decisions under risk, still minimizes the influence of the individual president. Decisions to disengage military forces are presidential decisions, just like the decisions to commit forces to foreign interventions. If we accept this, then it is important to understand if, and if so why, some presidents inherently are more or less acceptant of the risks disengagement presents. This book operationalizes a competing personality-based model of decision-making under risk. Referred to here as the trait-based model, it is assessed using disengagement opportunities in three varied levels of military intervention across four presidencies: humanitarian relief turned nation-building under George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton in Somalia, compellent air campaigns turned peace-making/keeping in Bosnia and Kosovo under Clinton, and major combat operations turned irregular warfare in Iraq under George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Data for the model predominantly comes from existing presidential personality profiles based on the dominant model of personality theory, the five-factor model, augmented by Myers-Briggs Type Inventory data from public sources. This study aims to explain the roughly 30 percent of cases which defy prospect theory's predictions and to better explain those cases where prospect theory might heretofore have sufficed. The results suggest specific personality traits do in fact point to presidents' predispositions toward risk, which in turn help explain their disengagement decisions. This work may be only the second to apply the five-factor model to presidential foreign policy decision-making and is the first to do so in the context of disengagement decisions. Hopefully it will foster further work in both areas.
Book Synopsis Forward-Looking Decision Making by : Robert E. Hall
Download or read book Forward-Looking Decision Making written by Robert E. Hall and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-08 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Individuals and families make key decisions that impact many aspects of financial stability and determine the future of the economy. These decisions involve balancing current sacrifice against future benefits. People have to decide how much to invest in health care, exercise, their diet, and insurance. They must decide how much debt to take on, and how much to save. And they make choices about jobs that determine employment and unemployment levels. Forward-Looking Decision Making is about modeling this individual or family-based decision making using an optimizing dynamic programming model. Robert Hall first reviews ideas about dynamic programs and introduces new ideas about numerical solutions and the representation of solved models as Markov processes. He surveys recent research on the parameters of preferences--the intertemporal elasticity of substitution, the Frisch elasticity of labor supply, and the Frisch cross-elasticity. He then examines dynamic programming models applied to health spending, long-term care insurance, employment, entrepreneurial risk-taking, and consumer debt. Linking theory with data and applying them to real-world problems, Forward-Looking Decision Making uses dynamic optimization programming models to shed light on individual behaviors and their economic implications.
Book Synopsis Negotiation and Foreign Policy Decision Making by : Melania-Gabriela Ciot
Download or read book Negotiation and Foreign Policy Decision Making written by Melania-Gabriela Ciot and published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing. This book was released on 2014-06-02 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Foreign policy decisions are influenced by many factors. The real world is complex and many variables have to be considered when making a decision. A psychological approach to decision-making facilitates the understanding and explaining of the complexity of foreign and global policies precisely because of the prolonged transitional stage of the contemporary international system. The course of world politics is shaped by the decisions of leaders. Uncertainty involved in decision-making in foreign policy can relate to the motivations, beliefs, intentions or calculations of the opponents. If it is not possible to understand how decisions are made, then maybe it is at least feasible to understand these decisions and, perhaps more importantly, predict various results with regards to international politics. This book provides a new perspective on the study of international relations by analyzing the subjective elements (idiosyncrasies) that occur in decision-making at the individual level. The use of psychological methods of analysing the foreign policy decision-making process proposes a necessary investigation path into international relations.
Book Synopsis Presidential Decision Making by : Roger B. Porter
Download or read book Presidential Decision Making written by Roger B. Porter and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-12-30 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This inside account of decision making in the White House describes the organizational challenges the President faces. The Economic Policy Board was one of the most systematic and sustained attempts to organize advice for the President in recent decades. The author examines the Board's deliberations over three controversial policy issues, drawing on scores of interviews with cabinet officials and career civil servants.
Book Synopsis Risk-based Decisionmaking in Water Resources IX by : Yacov Y. Haimes
Download or read book Risk-based Decisionmaking in Water Resources IX written by Yacov Y. Haimes and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by : Institute of Medicine
Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of the American Presidency by : George C. Edwards
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of the American Presidency written by George C. Edwards and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-08-04 with total page 892 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With engaging, new contributions from major figures in the field, 'The Oxford Handbook of the American Presidency' provides the key point of reference for anyone working in American politics today.
Book Synopsis Presidential Decisionmaking In Foreign Policy by : Alexander L George
Download or read book Presidential Decisionmaking In Foreign Policy written by Alexander L George and published by Westview Press. This book was released on 1980-02-21 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 0813325919 Presidential Personality and Performance
