Projection And Estimation Of International Migration

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Projection and Estimation of International Migration

Author : Jonathan J. Azose
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 144 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (984 download)

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Book Synopsis Projection and Estimation of International Migration by : Jonathan J. Azose

Download or read book Projection and Estimation of International Migration written by Jonathan J. Azose and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I propose techniques for improving both estimation and projection of international migration. By applying a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to net migration data, I produce projections of international migration that are global in scope and have well quantified uncertainty. My projections are of an appropriate form to be included as the migration component in probabilistic population projections, as has by done by Azose et al. (2016). (The current practice of the United Nations Population Division is to produce probabilistic population projections which include deterministic projections of migration.) The net migration model may be improved by incorporating a correlation matrix, but estimating such a matrix is difficult because the dimension of the matrix is large while the number of available data points is small. I demonstrate a method for estimating a correlation matrix which includes a prior belief that correlations which are large in magnitude are more likely among countries which are "close", either because of geographical or historical ties. Including correlations improves projections when net migration is aggregated across regions. I also propose a method for improving existing estimates of bilateral migration flows based on migrant stock data. A current state-of-the-art estimation method (Abel, 2013) relies on an unrealistic assumption that the total number of migrants is as small as possible, resulting in estimates with many structural zeroes. By weakening that assumption, I produce estimates of migration flows between all pairs of countries that allow for substantial return migration flows.

Revised Estimates and Projections of International Migration, 1980-2000

Author : Fred Arnold
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 94 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Revised Estimates and Projections of International Migration, 1980-2000 by : Fred Arnold

Download or read book Revised Estimates and Projections of International Migration, 1980-2000 written by Fred Arnold and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1989 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Here are country -by -country recommendations for revising the World Bank's previous estimates and projections of net international migration for the period 1980-2000, for use in the Bank's World development projections. Net migration figures for most major sending and receiving countries should be revised upward.

International Migration in Europe

Author : James Raymer
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470985542
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (79 download)

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Book Synopsis International Migration in Europe by : James Raymer

Download or read book International Migration in Europe written by James Raymer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At present there is no unified treatment, drawing together models to allow a consistent and reliable set of migration flows, across countries. This text seeks to do exactly that, potentially improving policies, planning and understanding about migration processes worldwide, via the presentation of migration estimation and modeling techniques. These modeling techniques are explored from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. The vital concepts such as missing data and collection methods (and their possible harmonization) are discussed in depth, and there are whole chapters dedicated to both modeling asylum flows and forecasts about the future of international migration.

Beyond Six Billion

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309069904
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond Six Billion by : National Research Council

Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-10-11 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

The Future of Migration to Europe

Author : matteo villa
Publisher : Ledizioni
ISBN 13 : 8855262025
Total Pages : 106 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis The Future of Migration to Europe by : matteo villa

Download or read book The Future of Migration to Europe written by matteo villa and published by Ledizioni. This book was released on 2020-05-14 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?

On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration

Author : Herbert Brücker
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (425 download)

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Book Synopsis On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration by : Herbert Brücker

Download or read book On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration written by Herbert Brücker and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Population Dynamics and Projection Methods

Author : John Stillwell
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9048189306
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (481 download)

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Book Synopsis Population Dynamics and Projection Methods by : John Stillwell

Download or read book Population Dynamics and Projection Methods written by John Stillwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level. This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe

Author : Marek Kupiszewski
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9048189489
Total Pages : 349 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (481 download)

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Book Synopsis International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe by : Marek Kupiszewski

Download or read book International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe written by Marek Kupiszewski and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-02-11 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.

International Migration Outlook 2019

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264851011
Total Pages : 414 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis International Migration Outlook 2019 by : OECD

Download or read book International Migration Outlook 2019 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2019-10-15 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2019 edition of the International Migration Outlook analyses recent developments in migration movements and policies in OECD countries and some non-OECD economies. It also examines the evolution of labour market outcomes of immigrants in OECD countries.

Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9789400733954
Total Pages : 316 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (339 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View by : Jakub Bijak

Download or read book Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-12-01 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe

Author : Marek Kupiszewski
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9789048189472
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (894 download)

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Book Synopsis International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe by : Marek Kupiszewski

Download or read book International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe written by Marek Kupiszewski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-02-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.

Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View

Author : Jakub Bijak
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9789048188987
Total Pages : 316 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (889 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View by : Jakub Bijak

Download or read book Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-11-30 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Author : Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030424723
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Developments in Demographic Forecasting by : Stefano Mazzuco

Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

The Frontiers of Applied Demography

Author : David A. Swanson
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319433296
Total Pages : 519 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis The Frontiers of Applied Demography by : David A. Swanson

Download or read book The Frontiers of Applied Demography written by David A. Swanson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-11 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book details cutting-edge methods and findings that may shape the future of applied demography. Inside, readers will discover new insights into the databases, substantive issues, and methodological approaches that can help them to improve how they use demography in decision making and planning problems in both public and private settings. The topics and perspectives are found in the book’s 23 chapters, which are organized into three major sections: (I) Demographic Information for Decision-Making: Case Studies; (II) Data: Issues and Analyses; and (III) Projection and Estimation Methods: Evaluations, Examples, and Discussions. Coverage includes chapters on migration, demographic market analysis, future courtroom needs, trends in the needs of the elderly, access to health care, longitudinal data systems, census costs, and new approaches to small area estimation and projection methods. The case studies represent a wide range of countries, including Australia, Canada, China, England, India, Japan, and the United States of America. Overall, this edited volume collects papers that were presented at different conferences, including the 8th international conference on population geographies (University of Queensland, 2015), the 2014 Applied Demography Conference (San Antonio, Texas, USA), and the annual conference of the Canadian Population Society. Applied demography touches many aspects of our lives and its practitioners continue to push methodological and empirical boundaries. This book documents the steady evolution of this field. It shows demographers, sociologists, economists, planners, marketers, and others how they can improve the quality and relevance of demographic information now and in the future.

A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections

Author : Stanley K. Smith
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400775512
Total Pages : 417 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections by : Stanley K. Smith

Download or read book A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.

ILO Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers

Author : Natalia Popova (Labor economist)
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789221326717
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (267 download)

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Book Synopsis ILO Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers by : Natalia Popova (Labor economist)

Download or read book ILO Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers written by Natalia Popova (Labor economist) and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If the right policies are in place, labour migration can help countries respond to shifts in labour supply and demand, stimulate innovation and sustainable development, and transfer and update skills. However, a lack of international standards regarding concepts, definitions and methodologies for measuring labour migration data still needs to be addressed. This report gives global and regional estimates, broken down by income group, gender and age. It also describes the data, sources and methodology used, as well as the corresponding limitations. The report seeks to contribute to the 2018 Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration and to achieving SDG targets 8.8 and 10.7

International Migration Statistics

Author : Richard E. Bilsborrow
Publisher : International Labour Organization
ISBN 13 : 9789221095170
Total Pages : 462 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (951 download)

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Book Synopsis International Migration Statistics by : Richard E. Bilsborrow

Download or read book International Migration Statistics written by Richard E. Bilsborrow and published by International Labour Organization. This book was released on 1997 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work examines the role played by the state and private sectors in organizing labour migration, and the economic and social issues raised by such migration policies and programmes. It explores the question of whether, and how, migrant workers should be controlled and regulated to safeguard the interests of the sending state without infringing the basic rights of the individual.