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Developments In Demographic Forecasting
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Book Synopsis Developments in Demographic Forecasting by : Stefano Mazzuco
Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Book Synopsis Demographic Forecasting by : Federico Girosi
Download or read book Demographic Forecasting written by Federico Girosi and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-08-24 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more
Book Synopsis Beyond Six Billion by : National Research Council
Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-10-11 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Book Synopsis Statistical Demography and Forecasting by : Juha Alho
Download or read book Statistical Demography and Forecasting written by Juha Alho and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-05-27 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. Presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. Exercises are included to facilitate its classroom use. Both authors have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.
Book Synopsis Populations, Projections, Politics by : Henk A. De Gans
Download or read book Populations, Projections, Politics written by Henk A. De Gans and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2003 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the interrelations of population change, developments in projection methodology, and politics in the 1920s and 1930s. Together, the contributions in the book represent an important scholarly and critical contribution to the history of d
Book Synopsis Beyond Six Billion by : National Research Council
Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-09-11 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Book Synopsis Frontiers of Population Forecasting by : Wolfgang Lutz
Download or read book Frontiers of Population Forecasting written by Wolfgang Lutz and published by Population. This book was released on 1999 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Population Dynamics and Projection Methods by : John Stillwell
Download or read book Population Dynamics and Projection Methods written by John Stillwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level. This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.
Book Synopsis Population Forecasting 1895–1945 by : Henk A. de Gans
Download or read book Population Forecasting 1895–1945 written by Henk A. de Gans and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1999-01-31 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The book will be of interest to scientists, researchers and students in demography and applied demography, statistics, economy, social geography and urban and regional planning and science studies."--BOOK JACKET.
Book Synopsis Aging and the Macroeconomy by : National Research Council
Download or read book Aging and the Macroeconomy written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-01-10 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United States is in the midst of a major demographic shift. In the coming decades, people aged 65 and over will make up an increasingly large percentage of the population: The ratio of people aged 65+ to people aged 20-64 will rise by 80%. This shift is happening for two reasons: people are living longer, and many couples are choosing to have fewer children and to have those children somewhat later in life. The resulting demographic shift will present the nation with economic challenges, both to absorb the costs and to leverage the benefits of an aging population. Aging and the Macroeconomy: Long-Term Implications of an Older Population presents the fundamental factors driving the aging of the U.S. population, as well as its societal implications and likely long-term macroeconomic effects in a global context. The report finds that, while population aging does not pose an insurmountable challenge to the nation, it is imperative that sensible policies are implemented soon to allow companies and households to respond. It offers four practical approaches for preparing resources to support the future consumption of households and for adapting to the new economic landscape.
Book Synopsis State and Local Population Projections by : Stanley K. Smith
Download or read book State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-11 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
Book Synopsis Demographic Change and the American Future by : R. Scott Fosler
Download or read book Demographic Change and the American Future written by R. Scott Fosler and published by University of Pittsburgh Pre. This book was released on 1990-07-15 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The essays in this volume analyze the growing stresses of demographic trends in the United States and their implications for policymakers. They describe projections for U.S. birth rates, changing family patterns, age-dependency ratio, immigration, geographical distribution, income distribution, and international standing. This book was published under the auspices of the Committee for Economic Development in Washington, DC.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries by : E. Tabeau
Download or read book Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries written by E. Tabeau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-11 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Book Synopsis A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections by : Stanley K. Smith
Download or read book A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting by : John Bryant
Download or read book Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting written by John Bryant and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-06-27 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques
Book Synopsis Demographic Forecasting by : Federico Girosi
Download or read book Demographic Forecasting written by Federico Girosi and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more
Book Synopsis Recent Developments and the New Direction in Soft-Computing Foundations and Applications by : Shahnaz N. Shahbazova
Download or read book Recent Developments and the New Direction in Soft-Computing Foundations and Applications written by Shahnaz N. Shahbazova and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-07-10 with total page 555 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gathers authoritative contributions in the field of Soft Computing. Based on selected papers presented at the 7th World Conference on Soft Computing, which was held on May 29–31, 2018, in Baku, Azerbaijan, it describes new theoretical advances, as well as cutting-edge methods and applications. New theories and algorithms in fuzzy logic, cognitive modeling, graph theory and metaheuristics are discussed, and applications in data mining, social networks, control and robotics, geoscience, biomedicine and industrial management are described. This book offers a timely, broad snapshot of recent developments, including thought-provoking trends and challenges that are yielding new research directions in the diverse areas of Soft Computing.
