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Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View
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Book Synopsis Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View by : Jakub Bijak
Download or read book Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-10-23 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Book Synopsis Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View by : Jakub Bijak
Download or read book Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-11-30 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Book Synopsis International Migration in Europe by : James Raymer
Download or read book International Migration in Europe written by James Raymer and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At present there is no unified treatment, drawing together models to allow a consistent and reliable set of migration flows, across countries. This text seeks to do exactly that, potentially improving policies, planning and understanding about migration processes worldwide, via the presentation of migration estimation and modeling techniques. These modeling techniques are explored from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. The vital concepts such as missing data and collection methods (and their possible harmonization) are discussed in depth, and there are whole chapters dedicated to both modeling asylum flows and forecasts about the future of international migration.
Book Synopsis Bayesian methods in international migration forecasting by : Jakub Bijak
Download or read book Bayesian methods in international migration forecasting written by Jakub Bijak and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe by : Marek Kupiszewski
Download or read book International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe written by Marek Kupiszewski and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-02-11 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.
Book Synopsis The Future of Migration to Europe by : matteo villa
Download or read book The Future of Migration to Europe written by matteo villa and published by Ledizioni. This book was released on 2020-05-14 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?
Book Synopsis International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe by : Marek Kupiszewski
Download or read book International Migration and the Future of Populations and Labour in Europe written by Marek Kupiszewski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-02-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The changes of populations are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. On the national level, international migration is a factor of increasing demographic, economic, social and political importance. This book addresses the debate on the impact of international migration and economic activity on population and labour force resources in future. It presents a study conducted for 27 European countries, looking 50 years ahead (2002-2052). An extended discussion of theories and factors underlying the assumed evolution of the components of change and economic activity is included as well as a detailed analysis of the historical trends. These theoretical and empirical considerations lead to defining scenarios of future mortality, fertility, economic activity and international migration, which have been fed into a projection model, producing various future population dynamics and labour force trajectories. In addition, simulations have been made to estimate the size of replacement migration needed to maintain selected demographic and labour market parameters in the countries of Europe. The results presented in this book allow researchers, governments and policy makers to evaluate to what extent various migration and labour market policies may be instrumental in achieving the desired population and labour size and structures. The secondary purpose of this volume is to reveal the methodology and argumentation lying behind a complex population forecasting and simulation exercise, which is not done frequently, but is critical for the assessment of the forecasts and also valuable from a purely didactic point of view.
Book Synopsis Research Handbook on International Migration and Digital Technology by : McAuliffe, Marie
Download or read book Research Handbook on International Migration and Digital Technology written by McAuliffe, Marie and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2021-12-07 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This forward-looking Research Handbook showcases cutting-edge research on the relationship between international migration and digital technology. It sheds new light on the interlinkages between digitalisation and migration patterns and processes globally, capturing the latest research technologies and data sources. Featuring international migration in all facets from the migration of tech sector specialists through to refugee displacement, leading contributors offer strategic insights into the future of migration and mobility.
Book Synopsis Forecasting international migration by : Jakub Bijak
Download or read book Forecasting international migration written by Jakub Bijak and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography by : Jakub Bijak
Download or read book Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography written by Jakub Bijak and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-12-09 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.
Book Synopsis Developments in Demographic Forecasting by : Stefano Mazzuco
Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Migration Studies by : Peter Scholten
Download or read book Introduction to Migration Studies written by Peter Scholten and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-06-03 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access textbook provides an introduction to theories, concepts and methodological approaches concerning various facets of migration and migration-related diversities. It starts with an introduction to migration studies and continues with an introductory reading of migration drivers, migration infrastructures, migration flows, and several transversal topics such as gender and migration. It also covers politics, policies and governance as well as specific research methods. As an interactive guide, this book develops an innovative format that brings a connection with various online sources. This means that whereas the chapters bring together literature in a coherent way, they are also connected to IMISCOE's online interactive Migration Research Hub for further reading and for more empirical material on migration and diversity. As such, this textbook provides a very useful introductory reading for undergraduate and graduate students as well as for policymakers, policy advisors, and all those interested in studies on migration and migration-related diversities.
Book Synopsis International Migration and Challenges in the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century by : Isil Zeynep Turkan Ipek
Download or read book International Migration and Challenges in the Beginning of the Twenty-First Century written by Isil Zeynep Turkan Ipek and published by Lexington Books. This book was released on 2018-10-18 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: International migration has been subject to many studies, conducted by academics, students, policy makers, and in civil society. As the migration flows continue to increase amongst countries, new dynamics shape international politics, economy, and culture. In this context, the main purpose of this book is to present a contemporary understanding of international migration through an interdisciplinary analysis. The authors investigate migration and its dynamics in different perspectives (cultural, economic, political, judicial, and sociological) by considering the latest changes in the international relations agenda. This book sheds light on different minor aspects of international migration in a critical perspective.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting by : John Bryant
Download or read book Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting written by John Bryant and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-06-27 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques
Book Synopsis Labor Markets, Migration, and Mobility by : William Cochrane
Download or read book Labor Markets, Migration, and Mobility written by William Cochrane and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-03-02 with total page 237 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume is devoted to three key themes central to studies in regional science: the sub-national labor market, migration, and mobility, and their analysis. The book brings together essays that cover a wide range of topics including the development of uncertainty in national and subnational population projections; the impacts of widening and deepening human capital; the relationship between migration, neighborhood change, and area-based urban policy; the facilitating role played by outmigration and remittances in economic transition; and the contrasting importance of quality of life and quality of business for domestic and international migrants. All of the contributions here are by leading figures in their fields and employ state-of-the art methodologies. Given the variety of topics and themes covered this book, it will appeal to a broad range of readers interested in both regional science and related disciplines such as demography, population economics, and public policy.
Book Synopsis Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting by : Tommy Bengtsson
Download or read book Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-28 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Book Synopsis CONVR 2023 - Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Construction Applications of Virtual Reality by : Pietro Capone
Download or read book CONVR 2023 - Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Construction Applications of Virtual Reality written by Pietro Capone and published by Firenze University Press. This book was released on with total page 1279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within the overarching theme of “Managing the Digital Transformation of Construction Industry” the 23rd International Conference on Construction Applications of Virtual Reality (CONVR 2023) presented 123 high-quality contributions on the topics of: Virtual and Augmented Reality (VR/AR), Building Information Modeling (BIM), Simulation and Automation, Computer Vision, Data Science, Artificial Intelligence, Linked Data, Semantic Web, Blockchain, Digital Twins, Health & Safety and Construction site management, Green buildings, Occupant-centric design and operation, Internet of Everything. The editors trust that this publication can stimulate and inspire academics, scholars and industry experts in the field, driving innovation, growth and global collaboration among researchers and stakeholders.
