Long Range Forecasting

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Text-Book of Long Range Weather Forecasting

Author : George J. McCormack
Publisher : Astrology Classics
ISBN 13 : 193330345X
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (333 download)

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Book Synopsis Text-Book of Long Range Weather Forecasting by : George J. McCormack

Download or read book Text-Book of Long Range Weather Forecasting written by George J. McCormack and published by Astrology Classics. This book was released on 2012-04 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: George J. McCormack, (1887-1974) had a life-long interest in astrology and the weather. Inspired by the astrometeorological work of A.J. Pearce (1840-1923), McCormack meticulously tracked and recorded the weather, from before World War I, until his death more than half a century later. In 1947, after 23 years of research, he published his "key" to long-range weather forecasting, being this book. Confident of his ability, in the spring of 1947 McCormack predicted one of the most severe winters in decades, specifically forecasting the infamous snows of December 26, 1947. He was nationally famous overnight. The techniques he used are in this amazing book. With study, they will become yours. The weather bureau predicts the weather, day by day, by careful observation of current conditions. You can learn to predict based on underlying celestial factors, which can be known months, even years, in advance. In 1963, before the US Weather Bureau, and again in 1964, before the American Meteorological Society, McCormack presented his life's work. Both groups ignored him, to our great loss. Use this book, make a better choice.

Long-range Forecasting

Author : Jon Scott Armstrong
Publisher : Wiley-Interscience
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 734 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Long-range Forecasting by : Jon Scott Armstrong

Download or read book Long-range Forecasting written by Jon Scott Armstrong and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1985 with total page 734 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Getting started. Forecasting methods. Evaluation. Comparing methods. Commencement.

Long-Range Dependence and Sea Level Forecasting

Author : Ali Ercan
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3319015052
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Long-Range Dependence and Sea Level Forecasting by : Ali Ercan

Download or read book Long-Range Dependence and Sea Level Forecasting written by Ali Ercan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-08-30 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study shows that the Caspian Sea level time series possess long range dependence even after removing linear trends, based on analyses of the Hurst statistic, the sample autocorrelation functions, and the periodogram of the series. Forecasting performance of ARMA, ARIMA, ARFIMA and Trend Line-ARFIMA (TL-ARFIMA) combination models are investigated. The forecast confidence bands and the forecast updating methodology, provided for ARIMA models in the literature, are modified for the ARFIMA models. Sample autocorrelation functions are utilized to estimate the differencing lengths of the ARFIMA models. The confidence bands of the forecasts are estimated using the probability densities of the residuals without assuming a known distribution. There are no long-term sea level records for the region of Peninsular Malaysia and Malaysia’s Sabah-Sarawak northern region of Borneo Island. In such cases the Global Climate Model (GCM) projections for the 21st century can be downscaled to the Malaysia region by means of regression techniques, utilizing the short records of satellite altimeters in this region against the GCM projections during a mutual observation period. This book will be useful for engineers and researchers working in the areas of applied statistics, climate change, sea level change, time series analysis, applied earth sciences, and nonlinear dynamics.

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Author : Stéphane Vannitsem
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 012812248X
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts by : Stéphane Vannitsem

Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Making Climate Forecasts Matter

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030917340X
Total Pages : 189 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Making Climate Forecasts Matter by : National Research Council

Download or read book Making Climate Forecasts Matter written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1999-05-27 with total page 189 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been usedâ€"and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.

Superforecasting

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Expert Political Judgment

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Political Judgment by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

מעינות ומפעלי מים בהרי יהודה

Author : ברית התנועה הקבוצת. מדור לידעת הארץ
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 87 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (73 download)

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Book Synopsis מעינות ומפעלי מים בהרי יהודה by : ברית התנועה הקבוצת. מדור לידעת הארץ

Download or read book מעינות ומפעלי מים בהרי יהודה written by ברית התנועה הקבוצת. מדור לידעת הארץ and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 87 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System

Author : William K.-M. Lau
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 354027250X
Total Pages : 437 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (42 download)

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Book Synopsis Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System by : William K.-M. Lau

Download or read book Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System written by William K.-M. Lau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-06-10 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive review of intra-seasonal variability (ISV); the contents are balanced between observation, theory and modeling. Starting with an overview of ISV and historical observations, the book addresses the coupling between ocean and atmosphere, and the worldwide role of ISV in monsoon variability. Also considered are the connections between oscillations like the Madden, Julian and El Nino/Southern and short-term climate.

Approaches to Long Range Forecasting

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Approaches to Long Range Forecasting by :

Download or read book Approaches to Long Range Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Long-range Forecasting and Planning

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Long-range Forecasting and Planning by :

Download or read book Long-range Forecasting and Planning written by and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Long Range Forecasting Methodology

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Long Range Forecasting Methodology by :

Download or read book Long Range Forecasting Methodology written by and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Long-range Forecasting and Planning

Author : United States. Air Force Dept
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Long-range Forecasting and Planning by : United States. Air Force Dept

Download or read book Long-range Forecasting and Planning written by United States. Air Force Dept and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Urban Meteorology

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309252202
Total Pages : 190 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Urban Meteorology by : National Research Council

Download or read book Urban Meteorology written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2012-06-13 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to the United Nations, three out of five people will be living in cities worldwide by the year 2030. The United States continues to experience urbanization with its vast urban corridors on the east and west coasts. Although urban weather is driven by large synoptic and meso-scale features, weather events unique to the urban environment arise from the characteristics of the typical urban setting, such as large areas covered by buildings of a variety of heights; paved streets and parking areas; means to supply electricity, natural gas, water, and raw materials; and generation of waste heat and materials. Urban Meteorology: Forecasting, Monitoring, and Meeting Users' Needs is based largely on the information provided at a Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate community workshop. This book describes the needs for end user communities, focusing in particular on needs that are not being met by current urban-level forecasting and monitoring. Urban Meteorology also describes current and emerging meteorological forecasting and monitoring capabilities that have had and will likely have the most impact on urban areas, some of which are not being utilized by the relevant end user communities. Urban Meteorology explains that users of urban meteorological information need high-quality information available in a wide variety of formats that foster its use and within time constraints set by users' decision processes. By advancing the science and technology related to urban meteorology with input from key end user communities, urban meteorologists can better meet the needs of diverse end users. To continue the advancement within the field of urban meteorology, there are both short-term needs-which might be addressed with small investments but promise large, quick returns-as well as future challenges that could require significant efforts and investments.

Completing the Forecast

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council

Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Long-range Forecasting and Planning, a Symposium Held at the U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorade, 16-17 August 1966

Author : United States. Air Force Department
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Long-range Forecasting and Planning, a Symposium Held at the U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorade, 16-17 August 1966 by : United States. Air Force Department

Download or read book Long-range Forecasting and Planning, a Symposium Held at the U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorade, 16-17 August 1966 written by United States. Air Force Department and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Long Range Forecasting Methodology, a Symposium Held at Alamogordo, New Mexico, 11-12 October 1967

Author : United States. Air Force Department
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Long Range Forecasting Methodology, a Symposium Held at Alamogordo, New Mexico, 11-12 October 1967 by : United States. Air Force Department

Download or read book Long Range Forecasting Methodology, a Symposium Held at Alamogordo, New Mexico, 11-12 October 1967 written by United States. Air Force Department and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: