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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Approaches to Long Range Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jon Scott Armstrong
Publisher : Wiley-Interscience
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 734 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Long-range Forecasting written by Jon Scott Armstrong and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1985 with total page 734 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Getting started. Forecasting methods. Evaluation. Comparing methods. Commencement.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Approaches to Long Range Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : United States. Air Force
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 174 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Approaches to Long Range Forecasting written by United States. Air Force and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Stéphane Vannitsem
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 012812248X
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)
Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner
Author : United States. Weather Bureau
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 146 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Reports on Critical Studies of Methods of Long-range Weather Forecasting Conducted by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics Under Bankhead-Jones Special Research Fund written by United States. Weather Bureau and published by . This book was released on 1940 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)
Download or read book Approaches to Long Range Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : J.S. Armstrong
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792374015
Total Pages : 880 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (74 download)
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Author : T S Khachaturov
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349026492
Total Pages : 468 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (49 download)
Download or read book Methods of Long-Term Planning and Forecasting written by T S Khachaturov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-30 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309161347
Total Pages : 193 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-09-08 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author : Ali Ercan
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3319015052
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Long-Range Dependence and Sea Level Forecasting written by Ali Ercan and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-08-30 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study shows that the Caspian Sea level time series possess long range dependence even after removing linear trends, based on analyses of the Hurst statistic, the sample autocorrelation functions, and the periodogram of the series. Forecasting performance of ARMA, ARIMA, ARFIMA and Trend Line-ARFIMA (TL-ARFIMA) combination models are investigated. The forecast confidence bands and the forecast updating methodology, provided for ARIMA models in the literature, are modified for the ARFIMA models. Sample autocorrelation functions are utilized to estimate the differencing lengths of the ARFIMA models. The confidence bands of the forecasts are estimated using the probability densities of the residuals without assuming a known distribution. There are no long-term sea level records for the region of Peninsular Malaysia and Malaysia’s Sabah-Sarawak northern region of Borneo Island. In such cases the Global Climate Model (GCM) projections for the 21st century can be downscaled to the Malaysia region by means of regression techniques, utilizing the short records of satellite altimeters in this region against the GCM projections during a mutual observation period. This book will be useful for engineers and researchers working in the areas of applied statistics, climate change, sea level change, time series analysis, applied earth sciences, and nonlinear dynamics.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Author : Rob J Hyndman
Publisher : OTexts
ISBN 13 : 0987507117
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (875 download)
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author : Jorge A. Rueda Benavides
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780309673440
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (734 download)
Download or read book Improving Mid-term, Intermediate, and Long-range Cost Forecasting written by Jorge A. Rueda Benavides and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Because transportation investment programs have extended time horizons, state departments of transportation (DOTs) must forecast costs well into the future. This poses a serious challenge: the longer the time horizon, the more uncertainty and risk that forecasted costs will vary from actual, future costs. The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Research Report 953: Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies presents a cost forecasting method for use by state transportation agencies that better accounts for cost variability and economic volatility over time. Supplemental information to the report includes a cost forecasting toolkit, a guidebook presentation, and videos.
Author : J. E. Murray
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book An Approach to Long-range Forecasting written by J. E. Murray and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note describes a method for making long-range (10-20 years) forecasts of Soviet strategic weapon developments. As the end product of a heuristic reasoning process, the methodology has a requirements orientation, based on clues from Soviet military writing, Soviet technology, and Soviet acquisition practices. Progressing through a sequence of four central inquiries, the methodology examines Soviet mission priorities, weapon deficiencies, and weapon options to forecast Soviet weapon choices. These four inquiries are supported by five background inquiries into Soviet military concepts, Soviet perceptions of threat, current Soviet weapon capabilities, Soviet advanced weapon technology, and available Soviet resources. After describing the overall methodology, this note discusses each of the nine inquiries and presents the author's viewpoint on their boundaries and emphasis.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Long-range Forecasting and Planning written by and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
