Impact Of Covid 19 Nowcasting And Big Data To Track Economic Activity In Sub Saharan Africa

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Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author : Brandon Buell
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513582496
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Brandon Buell

Download or read book Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Brandon Buell and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.

Overcoming Data Sparsity: A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author : Karim Barhoumi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Overcoming Data Sparsity: A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Karim Barhoumi

Download or read book Overcoming Data Sparsity: A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Karim Barhoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-05-06 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 crisis has had a tremendous economic impact for all countries. Yet, assessing the full impact of the crisis has been frequently hampered by the delayed publication of official GDP statistics in several emerging market and developing economies. This paper outlines a machine-learning framework that helps track economic activity in real time for these economies. As illustrative examples, the framework is applied to selected sub-Saharan African economies. The framework is able to provide timely information on economic activity more swiftly than official statistics.

Africa's Pulse, No. 21, Spring 2020

Author : Cesar Calderon
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464815682
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Africa's Pulse, No. 21, Spring 2020 by : Cesar Calderon

Download or read book Africa's Pulse, No. 21, Spring 2020 written by Cesar Calderon and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-04-07 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a toll on human life and brought major disruption to economic activity across the world. Despite a late arrival, the COVID-19 virus has spread rapidly across Sub-Saharan Africa in recent weeks. Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to decline from 2.4 percent in 2019 to -2.1 to -5.1 percent in 2020, the first recession in the region in 25 years. The coronavirus is hitting the region’s three largest economies —Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola— in a context of persistently weak growth and investment. In particular, countries that depend on oil and mining exports would be hit the hardest. The negative impact of the COVID-19 crisis on household welfare would be equally dramatic. African policymakers need to develop a two-pronged strategy of “saving lives and protecting livelihoods.†? This strategy includes relief measures and recovery measures aimed at strengthening health systems, providing income support to workers and liquidity support to viable businesses. However, financing of these policies will be challenging amid deteriorating fiscal positions and heightened public debt vulnerabilities. Therefore, African countries will require financial assistance from their development partners -including COVID-19 related multilateral assistance and a debt service stand still with creditors.

Gendered impacts of COVID-19: Insights from 7 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

Author : Alvi, Muzna Fatima
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 144 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Gendered impacts of COVID-19: Insights from 7 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia by : Alvi, Muzna Fatima

Download or read book Gendered impacts of COVID-19: Insights from 7 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia written by Alvi, Muzna Fatima and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2022-02-18 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is widely recognized that periods of crisis affect men and women differently, mediated by their access to resources and information, as well as social and institutional structures that may systematically disadvantage women from being able to access relief, institutional support, and rehabilitation. To capture the gendered impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns, we conducted phone surveys in seven countries spread across Asia and Africa. The study was designed as a longitudinal panel study with five rounds of data collection in Ghana, Nepal, Nigeria, and Senegal, and three rounds of data collection in Kenya, Niger, and Uganda. Both men and women were administered the same survey, with some modifications made across countries to adapt to local contexts. This report gives an overview of our findings covering several topics including income loss, coping strategies, labor and time use, food and water insecurity and child education outcomes. We find widespread reports of income loss, which declined over time, but increased again as countries experienced a resurgence in COVID-19 cases and fatality. We find that households first depleted savings when faced with income loss and over time, use of savings reduced while other measures began to be adopted. Women reported greater food and water insecurity compared to men, including worrying about insufficient food and eating less than usual. This is particularly worrying since a large proportion of women also did not have adequately diverse diets. Moderate to severe water insecurity was reported in many of the countries, and as with food insecurity, women were more likely to report issues with accessing water for drinking and other household activities. In some countries, additional modules were added to capture country specific issues of policy relevance, such agriculture extension, mental health, and child marriage. The results make it clear that proactive investments will be needed, including social safety nets, favorable credit policies, nutrition and water investments, to ensure that the crisis does not further widen the gender gap in resources and achievements in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries.

Applied Big Data Analytics and Its Role in COVID-19 Research

Author : Zhao, Peng
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1799887952
Total Pages : 349 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (998 download)

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Book Synopsis Applied Big Data Analytics and Its Role in COVID-19 Research by : Zhao, Peng

Download or read book Applied Big Data Analytics and Its Role in COVID-19 Research written by Zhao, Peng and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2022-04-29 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There has been a multitude of studies focused on the COVID-19 pandemic across fields and disciplines as all sectors of life have had to adjust the way things are done and adapt to the constantly shifting environment. These studies are crucial as they provide support and perspectives on how things are changing and what needs to be done to stay afloat. Connecting COVID-19-related studies and big data analytics is crucial for the advancement of industrial applications and research areas. Applied Big Data Analytics and Its Role in COVID-19 Research introduces the most recent industrial applications and research topics on COVID-19 with big data analytics. Featuring coverage on a broad range of big data technologies such as data gathering, artificial intelligence, smart diagnostics, and mining mobility, this publication provides concrete examples and cases of usage of data-driven projects in COVID-19 research. This reference work is a vital resource for data scientists, technical managers, researchers, scholars, practitioners, academicians, instructors, and students.

Intelligent Data Analysis for COVID-19 Pandemic

Author : M. Niranjanamurthy
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811615748
Total Pages : 370 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (116 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligent Data Analysis for COVID-19 Pandemic by : M. Niranjanamurthy

Download or read book Intelligent Data Analysis for COVID-19 Pandemic written by M. Niranjanamurthy and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-06-22 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents intelligent data analysis as a tool to fight against COVID-19 pandemic. The intelligent data analysis includes machine learning, natural language processing, and computer vision applications to teach computers to use big data-based models for pattern recognition, explanation, and prediction. These functions are discussed in detail in the book to recognize (diagnose), predict, and explain (treat) COVID-19 infections, and help manage socio-economic impacts. It also discusses primary warnings and alerts; tracking and prediction; data dashboards; diagnosis and prognosis; treatments and cures; and social control by the use of intelligent data analysis. It provides analysis reports, solutions using real-time data, and solution through web applications details.

Accessing the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Policy Reponses in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781464845680
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (456 download)

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Book Synopsis Accessing the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Policy Reponses in Sub-Saharan Africa by :

Download or read book Accessing the Economic Impact of COVID-19 and Policy Reponses in Sub-Saharan Africa written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Testing Big Data in a Big Crisis

Author : Luca Barbaglia
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (134 download)

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Book Synopsis Testing Big Data in a Big Crisis by : Luca Barbaglia

Download or read book Testing Big Data in a Big Crisis written by Luca Barbaglia and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the COVID-19 pandemic, economists have struggled to obtain reliable economic predictions, with standard models becoming outdated and their forecasting performance deteriorating rapidly. This paper presents two novelties that could be adopted by forecasting institutions in unconventional times. The first innovation is the construction of an extensive data set for macroeconomic forecasting in Europe. We collect more than a thousand time series from conventional and unconventional sources, complementing traditional macroeconomic variables with timely big data indicators and assessing their added value at nowcasting. The second novelty consists of a methodology to merge an enormous amount of non-encompassing data with a large battery of classical and more sophisticated forecasting methods in a seamlessly dynamic Bayesian framework. Specifically, we introduce an innovative "selection prior" that is used not as a way to influence model outcomes, but as a selecting device among competing models. By applying this methodology to the COVID-19 crisis, we show which variables are good predictors for nowcasting Gross Domestic Product and draw lessons for dealing with possible future crises.

COVID-19 and the Future of Work in Africa

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (124 download)

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Book Synopsis COVID-19 and the Future of Work in Africa by :

Download or read book COVID-19 and the Future of Work in Africa written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sub-Saharan Africa has been severe; however, countries are weathering the storm so far. Real GDP is estimated to contract by 2.0 percent in 2020-close to the lower bound of the forecast range in April 2020, and less than the contraction in advanced economies and other emerging markets and developing economies, excluding China. Available data from the second half of 2020 point to rebound in economic activity that explain why the contraction in the region was in the lower bound of the forecasts. It reflected a slower spread of the virus and lower COVID-19-related mortality in the region, strong agricultural growth, and a faster-than-expected recovery in commodity prices. Economic activity in the region is expected to rise to a range between2.3 and 3.4 percent in 2021, depending on the policy measures adopted by countries and the international community. However, prospects for a slow vaccine rollout, the resurgence of pandemic, and limited scope for additional fiscal support, could hold back the recovery in the region. Policies to support the economy in the near term should be complemented by structural reforms that encourage sustained investment, create jobs and enhance competitiveness. Reducing the countries' debt burden will release resources for public investment, in areas such as education, health, and infrastructure. Investments in human capital will help lower the risk of long-lasting damage from the pandemic which may become apparent over the longer term, and can enhance competitiveness and productivity. The next twelve months will be a critical period for leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area in order to deepen African countries' integration into regional and global value chains. Finally, reforms that address digital infrastructure gaps and make the digital economy more inclusive "ensuring affordability but also building skills for all segments of society, are critical to improve connectivity, boost digital technology adoption, and generate more and better jobs for men and women.

Covid-19 and the Informal Economy

Author : Jürgen Schwettmann
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783962506223
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Covid-19 and the Informal Economy by : Jürgen Schwettmann

Download or read book Covid-19 and the Informal Economy written by Jürgen Schwettmann and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity

Author : Juan Antolin-Diaz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 80 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (124 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity by : Juan Antolin-Diaz

Download or read book Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity written by Juan Antolin-Diaz and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A key question for households, firms, and policy makers is: how is the economy doing now? We develop a Bayesian dynamic factor model and compute daily estimates of US GDP growth. Our framework gives prominence to features of modern business cycles absent in linear Gaussian models, including secular movements in growth, time-varying uncertainty, and fat tails. We also incorporate newly available high-frequency data on consumer behavior. The model beats benchmark econometric models and survey expectations at predicting GDP growth over two decades, and advances our understanding of macroeconomic data during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Computational Statistical Methodologies and Modeling for Artificial Intelligence

Author : Priyanka Harjule
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000831078
Total Pages : 389 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Computational Statistical Methodologies and Modeling for Artificial Intelligence by : Priyanka Harjule

Download or read book Computational Statistical Methodologies and Modeling for Artificial Intelligence written by Priyanka Harjule and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-03-31 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers computational statistics-based approaches for Artificial Intelligence. The aim of this book is to provide comprehensive coverage of the fundamentals through the applications of the different kinds of mathematical modelling and statistical techniques and describing their applications in different Artificial Intelligence systems. The primary users of this book will include researchers, academicians, postgraduate students, and specialists in the areas of data science, mathematical modelling, and Artificial Intelligence. It will also serve as a valuable resource for many others in the fields of electrical, computer, and optical engineering. The key features of this book are: Presents development of several real-world problem applications and experimental research in the field of computational statistics and mathematical modelling for Artificial Intelligence Examines the evolution of fundamental research into industrialized research and the transformation of applied investigation into real-time applications Examines the applications involving analytical and statistical solutions, and provides foundational and advanced concepts for beginners and industry professionals Provides a dynamic perspective to the concept of computational statistics for analysis of data and applications in intelligent systems with an objective of ensuring sustainability issues for ease of different stakeholders in various fields Integrates recent methodologies and challenges by employing mathematical modeling and statistical techniques for Artificial Intelligence

Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464816034
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020 by : World Bank

Download or read book Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2020-12-23 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition of the biennial Poverty and Shared Prosperity report brings sobering news. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic and its associated economic crisis, compounded by the effects of armed conflict and climate change, are reversing hard-won gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. The fight to end poverty has suffered its worst setback in decades after more than 20 years of progress. The goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030, already at risk before the pandemic, is now beyond reach in the absence of swift, significant, and sustained action, and the objective of advancing shared prosperity—raising the incomes of the poorest 40 percent in each country—will be much more difficult. Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020: Reversals of Fortune presents new estimates of COVID-19's impacts on global poverty and shared prosperity. Harnessing fresh data from frontline surveys and economic simulations, it shows that pandemic-related job losses and deprivation worldwide are hitting already poor and vulnerable people hard, while also shifting the profile of global poverty to include millions of 'new poor.' Original analysis included in the report shows that the new poor are more urban, better educated, and less likely to work in agriculture than those living in extreme poverty before COVID-19. It also gives new estimates of the impact of conflict and climate change, and how they overlap. These results are important for targeting policies to safeguard lives and livelihoods. It shows how some countries are acting to reverse the crisis, protect those most vulnerable, and promote a resilient recovery. These findings call for urgent action. If the global response fails the world's poorest and most vulnerable people now, the losses they have experienced to date will be minimal compared with what lies ahead. Success over the long term will require much more than stopping COVID-19. As efforts to curb the disease and its economic fallout intensify, the interrupted development agenda in low- and middle-income countries must be put back on track. Recovering from today's reversals of fortune requires tackling the economic crisis unleashed by COVID-19 with a commitment proportional to the crisis itself. In doing so, countries can also plant the seeds for dealing with the long-term development challenges of promoting inclusive growth, capital accumulation, and risk prevention—particularly the risks of conflict and climate change.

Exploring Effective Municipal Planning and Implementation

Author : Munzhedzi, Pandelani Harry
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 416 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (693 download)

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Book Synopsis Exploring Effective Municipal Planning and Implementation by : Munzhedzi, Pandelani Harry

Download or read book Exploring Effective Municipal Planning and Implementation written by Munzhedzi, Pandelani Harry and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2024-07-31 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Among municipalities in developing nations, systemic issues such as corruption, mismanagement, and limited accountability plague local governance, impeding development efforts and hindering effective service delivery. This perpetual cycle of failure undermines the aspirations outlined in municipal plans, erodes public trust, and perpetuates socio-economic disparities. Despite recognizing these challenges, tangible solutions remain elusive, leaving communities trapped in a cycle of underdevelopment and frustration. Exploring Effective Municipal Planning and Implementation offers a comprehensive exploration of these pressing issues, and consolidates expertise and insights of academics and practitioners. Through rigorous analysis and innovative approaches, this book dissects the root causes of municipal failures, and identifies practical mechanisms for improvement. Delving into municipal planning, budgeting, and governance, this book equips readers with the knowledge and tools needed to drive meaningful change in local governance practices. This book focuses on transforming struggling municipalities into entities of effective governance and sustainable development. Harness the collective wisdom of experts from around the globe with this book, and discover the hope you have been seeking for your community to break free from cycle of municipal hardship.

Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance

Author : El Bachir Boukherouaa
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589063953
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance by : El Bachir Boukherouaa

Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.

The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation

Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616356154
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)

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Book Synopsis The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar

Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

How to Achieve Inclusive Growth

Author : Valerie Cerra
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192846930
Total Pages : 901 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (928 download)

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Book Synopsis How to Achieve Inclusive Growth by : Valerie Cerra

Download or read book How to Achieve Inclusive Growth written by Valerie Cerra and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2022-01-22 with total page 901 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. Rising inequality and widespread poverty, social unrest and polarization, gender and ethnic disparities, declining social mobility, economic fragility, unbalanced growth due to technology and globalization, and existential danger from climate change are urgent global concerns of our day. These issues are intertwined. They therefore require a holistic framework to examine their interplay and bring the various strands together. Leading academic economists have partnered with experts from several international institutions to explain the sources and scale of these challenges. They gather a wide array of empirical evidence and country experiences to lay out practical policy solutions and to devise a comprehensive and unified plan of action for combatting these economic and social disparities. This authoritative book is accessible to policy makers, students, and the general public interested in how to craft a brighter future by building a sustainable, green, and inclusive society in the years ahead.