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Author : Peter Mark Roget
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 730 pages
Book Rating : 4.M/5 ( download)
Download or read book Thesaurus of English Words and Phrases written by Peter Mark Roget and published by . This book was released on 1921 with total page 730 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Torleif Halkjelsvik
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319749536
Total Pages : 117 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)
Download or read book Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-02-28 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author : William Cheung
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128179465
Total Pages : 584 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)
Download or read book Predicting Future Oceans written by William Cheung and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-08-17 with total page 584 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting Future Oceans: Sustainability of Ocean and Human Systems Amidst Global Environmental Change provides a synthesis of our knowledge of the future state of the oceans. The editors undertake the challenge of integrating diverse perspectives—from oceanography to anthropology—to exhibit the changes in ecological conditions and their socioeconomic implications. Each contributing author provides a novel perspective, with the book as a whole collating scholarly understandings of future oceans and coastal communities across the world. The diverse perspectives, syntheses and state-of-the-art natural and social sciences contributions are led by past and current research fellows and principal investigators of the Nereus Program network. This includes members at 17 leading research institutes, addressing themes such as oceanography, biodiversity, fisheries, mariculture production, economics, pollution, public health and marine policy. This book is a comprehensive resource for senior undergraduate and postgraduate readers studying social and natural science, as well as practitioners working in the field of natural resources management and marine conservation. Provides a synthesis of our knowledge on the future state of the oceans Includes recommendations on how to move forwards Highlights key social aspects linked to ocean ecosystems, including health, equity and sovereignty
Author : David Ropeik
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 9780071635646
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (356 download)
Download or read book How Risky Is It, Really?: Why Our Fears Don't Always Match the Facts written by David Ropeik and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2010-03-05 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Clear, balanced, and lively." -- Steven Pinker, bestselling author of How the Mind Works ARE YOU AFRAID OF THE "RIGHT" RISKS? Do you worry more about radiation from nuclear power or from the sun? Are you more afraid of getting cancer than heart disease? Are you safer talking on your cell phone or using a hands-free device when you drive? Do you think global warming is a serious threat to your health? GET THE FACTS BEHIND YOUR FEARS—AND DISCOVER . . . HOW RISKY IS IT, REALLY? International risk expert David Ropeik takes an in-depth look at our perceptions of risk and explains the hidden factors that make us unnecessarily afraid of relatively small threats and not afraid enough of some really big ones. This read is a comprehensive, accessible, and entertaining mixture of what's been discovered about how and why we fear—too much or too little. It brings into focus the danger of The Perception Gap: when our fears don’t match the facts, and we make choices that create additional risks. This book will not decide for you what is really risky and what isn't. That's up to you. HOW RISKY IS IT, REALLY? will tell you how you make those decisions. Understanding how we perceive risk is the first step toward making wiser and healthier choices for ourselves as individuals and for society as a whole. TEST YOUR OWN "RISK RESPONSE" IN DOZENS OF SELF-QUIZZES!
Author : Trish MacGregor
Publisher : Crossroad Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 313 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book Sensing the Future written by Trish MacGregor and published by Crossroad Press. This book was released on 2020-05-01 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover Your Untapped Potential to Predict the Future Have you ever had a hunch that became reality? You may be ignoring signs from the universe about what is to come. Trish and Rob MacGregor, authors and founders of the blog Synchro Secrets, explain how to train your brain and recognize signs in order to enhance your innate precognitive abilities. Over 400 years ago, Nostradamus wrote predictions that are still relevant, and even today, there are those who experience dreams and physical symptoms prior to catastrophic events such as 9/11. Whether you have had prophetic dreams about a loved one or wish to learn more about these mysterious abilities, Sensing the Future will show you how to harness the power of your intuition. We all have the ability to predict the future if we open ourselves up to the signs of the universe.
Author : Tomaso Vecchi
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262044757
Total Pages : 211 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)
Download or read book Memory as Prediction written by Tomaso Vecchi and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theoretical reflections on memory and prediction, linking these concepts to the role of the cerebellum in higher cognition. What is memory? What is memory for? Where is memory in the brain? Although memory is probably the most studied function in cognition, these fundamental questions remain challenging. We can try to answer the question of memory's purpose by defining the function of memory as remembering the past. And yet this definition is not consistent with the many errors that characterize our memory, or with the phylogenetic and ontogenetic origin of memory. In this book, Tomaso Vecchi and Daniele Gatti argue that the purpose of memory is not to remember the past but to predict the future. Vecchi and Gatti link memory and prediction to the role of the cerebellum in higher cognition, relying on recent empirical data to support theoretical reflections. They propose a new model of memory functions that comprises a system devoted to prediction, based in the cerebellum and mediated by the hippocampus, and a parallel system with a major role for cortical structures and mediated by the amygdala. Although memory is often conceived as a kind of storehouse, this storehouse is constantly changing, integrating new information in a continual process of modification. In order to explain these characteristics, Vecchi and Gatti argue, we must change our interpretation of the nature and functions of the memory system.
Author : Vaclav Smil
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262291622
Total Pages : 323 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (622 download)
Download or read book Global Catastrophes and Trends written by Vaclav Smil and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2012-09-21 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at global changes that may occur over the next fifty years—whether sudden and cataclysmic world-changing events or gradually unfolding trends. Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a “fatal discontinuity,” a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance, including the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change—in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change—and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.
Author : Michael Lewis
Publisher : Guilford Press
ISBN 13 : 9781572303713
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (37 download)
Download or read book Altering Fate written by Michael Lewis and published by Guilford Press. This book was released on 1998-07-13 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Few people question the pervasive belief that early childhood exerts an inordinate power over adult achievements, relationships, and mental health. Once robbed of our potential by the inadequacies of our upbringing, the theory goes, we risk being trapped in maladaptive patterns and unfulfilling lives. But does early experience really seal our fate? Daring to challenge prevailing models of child development, this provocative book argues that what enables us to survive--and sets us free from our pasts--is our astonishing adaptability to change, shaped by the uniquely human attributes of consciousness, will, and desire.
Author : Elizabeth Clare Prophet
Publisher : SCB Distributors
ISBN 13 : 1932890807
Total Pages : 382 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (328 download)
Download or read book Predict Your Future written by Elizabeth Clare Prophet and published by SCB Distributors. This book was released on 2010-11-11 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Is it really possible to predict your future? As we look at the universe around us, we see a rhythm to all of life. We discover that all things move in cycles. The law of cycles governs both the spiritual and material universes, for our world is a reflection of the world beyond, of higher realms, of spiritual dimensions. In this groundbreaking work, Elizabeth Clare Prophet shows how you can apply the law of cycles to your own life through a science known as the Cosmic Clock. This science will help you chart the cycles of your karma, the cause-and-effect sequences in your life, just as it will allow you to map the inner dimensions of your dharma, your duty to fulfill your reason for being. This is not predestination. But you can, by charting your personal Cosmic Clock, learn to see the patterns in your life and prepare for the challenges and the opportunities that come your way each day. Equipped with the powerful tools and techniques revealed in this book, you can make the most of your future and be the master of your fate, your cycles, your destiny. Includes 60 figures and illustrations, many in color."
Author : Eric Siegel
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119145686
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (191 download)
Download or read book Predictive Analytics written by Eric Siegel and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-13 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer "The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.
Author : Andromeda Romano-Lax
Publisher : Soho Press
ISBN 13 : 1616959029
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (169 download)
Download or read book Plum Rains written by Andromeda Romano-Lax and published by Soho Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a tour-de-force tapestry of science fiction and historical fiction, Andromeda Romano-Lax presents a story set in Japan and Taiwan that spans a century of empire, conquest, progress, and destruction. 2029: In Japan, a historically mono-cultural nation, childbirth rates are at an all-time low and the elderly are living increasingly longer lives. This population crisis has precipitated the mass immigration of foreign medical workers from all over Asia, as well as the development of finely tuned artificial intelligence to step in where humans fall short. In Tokyo, Angelica Navarro, a Filipina nurse who has been in Japan for the last five years, works as caretaker for Sayoko Itou, a moody, secretive woman about to turn 100 years old. One day, Sayoko receives a present: a cutting-edge robot “friend” that will teach itself to anticipate Sayoko’s every need. Angelica wonders if she is about to be forced out of her much-needed job by an inanimate object—one with a preternatural ability to uncover the most deeply buried secrets of the humans around it. Meanwhile, Sayoko becomes attached to the machine. The old woman has been hiding secrets of her own for almost a century—and she’s too old to want to keep them anymore. What she reveals is a hundred-year saga of forbidden love, hidden identities, and the horrific legacy of WWII and Japanese colonialism—a confession that will tear apart her own life and Angelica’s. Is the helper robot the worst thing that could have happened to the two women—or is it forcing the changes they both desperately needed?
Author : Octavia E. Butler
Publisher : Grand Central Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1538765500
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (387 download)
Download or read book Parable of the Talents written by Octavia E. Butler and published by Grand Central Publishing. This book was released on 2023-03-28 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1998, this shockingly prescient novel's timely message of hope and resistance in the face of fanaticism is more relevant than ever. In 2032, Lauren Olamina has survived the destruction of her home and family, and realized her vision of a peaceful community in northern California based on her newly founded faith, Earthseed. The fledgling community provides refuge for outcasts facing persecution after the election of an ultra-conservative president who vows to "make America great again." In an increasingly divided and dangerous nation, Lauren's subversive colony--a minority religious faction led by a young black woman--becomes a target for President Jarret's reign of terror and oppression. Years later, Asha Vere reads the journals of a mother she never knew, Lauren Olamina. As she searches for answers about her own past, she also struggles to reconcile with the legacy of a mother caught between her duty to her chosen family and her calling to lead humankind into a better future.
Author : Morton Schapiro
Publisher : Northwestern University Press
ISBN 13 : 0810131978
Total Pages : 212 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (11 download)
Download or read book The Fabulous Future? written by Morton Schapiro and published by Northwestern University Press. This book was released on 2015-05-05 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Will the future be one of economic expansion, greater tolerance, liberating inventions, and longer, happier lives? Or do we face economic stagnation, declining quality of life, and a technologically enhanced totalitarianism worse than any yet seen? The Fabulous Future? America and the World in 2040 draws its inspiration from a more optimistic time, and tome, The Fabulous Future: America in 1980, in which Fortune magazine celebrated its twenty-fifth anniversary by publishing the predictions of thought leaders of its time. In the present volume, the world’s leading specialists from diverse fields project developments in their areas of expertise, from religion and the media to the environment and nanotechnology. Will we be happier, and what exactly does happiness have to do with our economic future? Where is higher education heading and how should it develop? And what is the future of prediction itself? These exciting essays provoke sharper questions, reflect unexpectedly on one another, and testify to our present anxieties about the surprising world to come.
Author : Thomas Hatch
Publisher : Corwin Press
ISBN 13 : 1071838504
Total Pages : 209 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (718 download)
Download or read book The Education We Need for a Future We Can′t Predict written by Thomas Hatch and published by Corwin Press. This book was released on 2021-01-19 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Improve Schools and Transform Education In order for educational systems to change, we must reevaluate deep-seated beliefs about learning, teaching, schooling, and race that perpetuate inequitable opportunities and outcomes. Hatch, Corson, and Gerth van den Berg challenge the narrative when it comes to the "grammar of schooling"--or the conventional structures, practices, and beliefs that define educational experiences for so many children—to cast a new vision of what school could be. The book addresses current systemic problems and solutions as it: Highlights global examples of successful school change Describes strategies that improve educational opportunities and performance Explores promising approaches in developing new learning opportunities Outlines conditions for supporting wide-scale educational improvement This provocative book approaches education reform by highlighting what works, while also demonstrating what can be accomplished if we redefine conventional schools. We can make the schools we have more efficient, more effective, and more equitable, all while creating powerful opportunities to support all aspects of students’ development. "You won’t find a better book on system change in education than this one. We learn why schools don’t change; how they can improve; what it takes to change a system; and, in the final analysis, the possibilities of system change. Above all, The Education We Need renders complexity into clarity as the writing is so clear and compelling. A powerful read on a topic of utmost importance." ~Michael Fullan, Professor Emeritus, OISE/Universtiy of Toronto "I cannot recommend this book highly enough – Tom tackles long-standing and emerging educational issues in new ways with an impressive understanding of the challenging complexities, but also feasible possibilities, for ensuring excellence and equity for all students." ~Carol Campbell, Associate Professor, Ontario Institute for Studies in Education, University of Toronto
Author : James T. Braha
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780935895070
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (95 download)
Download or read book How to Predict Your Future written by James T. Braha and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "How to use the vishotri dasa system, the predictive method that allows startlingly accurate predictions about periods in a person’s life."--Publisher description.
Author : Avi Goldfarb
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022620684X
Total Pages : 510 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)
Download or read book Economic Analysis of the Digital Economy written by Avi Goldfarb and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2015-05-08 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a small and growing literature that explores the impact of digitization in a variety of contexts, but its economic consequences, surprisingly, remain poorly understood. This volume aims to set the agenda for research in the economics of digitization, with each chapter identifying a promising area of research. "Economics of Digitization "identifies urgent topics with research already underway that warrant further exploration from economists. In addition to the growing importance of digitization itself, digital technologies have some features that suggest that many well-studied economic models may not apply and, indeed, so many aspects of the digital economy throw normal economics in a loop. "Economics of Digitization" will be one of the first to focus on the economic implications of digitization and to bring together leading scholars in the economics of digitization to explore emerging research.
