Demographic Forecasting

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Demographic Forecasting

Author : Federico Girosi
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780691130958
Total Pages : 294 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (39 download)

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Book Synopsis Demographic Forecasting by : Federico Girosi

Download or read book Demographic Forecasting written by Federico Girosi and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-08-24 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more

Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Author : Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030424723
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Developments in Demographic Forecasting by : Stefano Mazzuco

Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Demographic Forecasting

Author : Federico Girosi
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691186782
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Demographic Forecasting by : Federico Girosi

Download or read book Demographic Forecasting written by Federico Girosi and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2018-06-05 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting

Author : John Bryant
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0429841337
Total Pages : 348 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (298 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting by : John Bryant

Download or read book Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting written by John Bryant and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-06-27 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com. "This book will be welcome for the scientific community of forecasters...as it presents a new approach which has already given important results and which, in my opinion, will increase its importance in the future." ~Daniel Courgeau, Institut national d'études démographiques

Statistical Demography and Forecasting

Author : Juha Alho
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387283927
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Demography and Forecasting by : Juha Alho

Download or read book Statistical Demography and Forecasting written by Juha Alho and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-05-27 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. Presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. Exercises are included to facilitate its classroom use. Both authors have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.

Beyond Six Billion

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309069904
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond Six Billion by : National Research Council

Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-10-11 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

Population Forecasting 1895–1945

Author : Henk A. de Gans
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792355373
Total Pages : 322 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (553 download)

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Book Synopsis Population Forecasting 1895–1945 by : Henk A. de Gans

Download or read book Population Forecasting 1895–1945 written by Henk A. de Gans and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1999-01-31 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The book will be of interest to scientists, researchers and students in demography and applied demography, statistics, economy, social geography and urban and regional planning and science studies."--BOOK JACKET.

Better Population Forecasting for Areas and Communities

Author : Henry Van Beuren Stanbery
Publisher : U.S. Government Printing Office
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 94 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Better Population Forecasting for Areas and Communities by : Henry Van Beuren Stanbery

Download or read book Better Population Forecasting for Areas and Communities written by Henry Van Beuren Stanbery and published by U.S. Government Printing Office. This book was released on 1952 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Regional Population Projection Models

Author : Andrei Rogers
Publisher : SAGE Publications, Incorporated
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 108 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Population Projection Models by : Andrei Rogers

Download or read book Regional Population Projection Models written by Andrei Rogers and published by SAGE Publications, Incorporated. This book was released on 1985-08 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Andrei Rogers, one of the world's leading authorities on population trends, offers a powerful technique for carrying out regional population projections. He gives a clear step-by-step analysis and demonstrations of actual projections of future populations at the regional level. The examples show how to calculate regional population growth rates, age compositions, and spatial distributions using data from several developed and less developed countries.

Accuracy of Population Projection Methods at the U.S. Census Bureau

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Accuracy of Population Projection Methods at the U.S. Census Bureau by :

Download or read book Accuracy of Population Projection Methods at the U.S. Census Bureau written by and published by . This book was released on 1987* with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

Author : E. Tabeau
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0792368339
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (923 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries by : E. Tabeau

Download or read book Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries written by E. Tabeau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-02-28 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

National Population Forecasting in Industrialized Countries

Author : Nico Keilman
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 388 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis National Population Forecasting in Industrialized Countries by : Nico Keilman

Download or read book National Population Forecasting in Industrialized Countries written by Nico Keilman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1992-06 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on a review conducted in 1988 of national population forecasting processes applied by statistical agencies in 30 countries.

State and Local Population Projections

Author : Stanley K. Smith
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0306473720
Total Pages : 433 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis State and Local Population Projections by : Stanley K. Smith

Download or read book State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-21 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.

Population Forecasting Methods

Author : Van Buren Stanbery
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Population Forecasting Methods by : Van Buren Stanbery

Download or read book Population Forecasting Methods written by Van Buren Stanbery and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Populations, Projections, Politics

Author : Jochen Fleischhacker
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9051707509
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (517 download)

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Book Synopsis Populations, Projections, Politics by : Jochen Fleischhacker

Download or read book Populations, Projections, Politics written by Jochen Fleischhacker and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2003 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Demographic Projection Techniques for Regions and Smaller Areas

Author : H. Craig Davis
Publisher : UBC Press
ISBN 13 : 9780774805018
Total Pages : 132 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Demographic Projection Techniques for Regions and Smaller Areas by : H. Craig Davis

Download or read book Demographic Projection Techniques for Regions and Smaller Areas written by H. Craig Davis and published by UBC Press. This book was released on 1995 with total page 132 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Chapter 3, the author outlines a four-step projection procedure which is used throughout the remainder of the book. Chapter 4 describes how to project population size by comparing the growth pattern of the population under study with that of another population. The next chapter covers one of the most commonly employed techniques of population projection - the cohort-survival model, which is used not only to project the size of a population but also its composition in terms of age and sex groupings. The final chapter focuses on migration, generally the most volatile component of the basic demographic equation. Primarily written for courses in planning, this book is also useful for anyone having to make decisions affected by population trends, whether they involve planning for future growth or alerting local decisionmakers to external uncertainties that could have a serious impact on the future of their community.

A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections

Author : Stanley K. Smith
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400775512
Total Pages : 417 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections by : Stanley K. Smith

Download or read book A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.