Population Forecasting 1895 1945

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Population Forecasting 1895–1945

Author : H.A. de Gans
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401147663
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (11 download)

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Book Synopsis Population Forecasting 1895–1945 by : H.A. de Gans

Download or read book Population Forecasting 1895–1945 written by H.A. de Gans and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Authors, scholars and scientists whose mother tongue is not one of the major languages of international communication are seriously disadvantaged. Some individuals, such as Joseph Conrad or Vladimir Nabokov, have overcome that handicap brilliantly. Others learn to live with it: they can express themselves sufficiently lucidly in a second language to make their voice heard internation ally. At least when they have something original or striking to say they will be certain to reach their peers. Most scientists and scholars fall into that category. Others, again, have to wait until their work has been translated before its value is recognised. This may apply even to those whose mother tongue is widely read. The writings of Frenchmen Lyotard, Derrida, Baudrillard or Foucault on post-modernism, on language, discourse and power, for example, had tremendous world-wide impact only after English translations appeared on the market. De Gans' study of the development of population forecasting in The Nether lands is another striking illustration of the effects a language barrier may have. He demonstrates convincingly that although a -possibly some what awkward Dutchman named Wiebols, was a pioneer of modern cohort component demo graphic forecasting, he never received international recognition for this. In his thesis of 1925 Wiebols employed the newest instruments of demographic analysis in improving forecasting methodology.

Population Forecasting 1895-1945

Author : Henk A. de Gans
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789401147675
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (476 download)

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Book Synopsis Population Forecasting 1895-1945 by : Henk A. de Gans

Download or read book Population Forecasting 1895-1945 written by Henk A. de Gans and published by . This book was released on 2014-01-15 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Forecasts of the Population of the United States, 1945-1975

Author : Pascal Kidder Whelpton
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasts of the Population of the United States, 1945-1975 by : Pascal Kidder Whelpton

Download or read book Forecasts of the Population of the United States, 1945-1975 written by Pascal Kidder Whelpton and published by . This book was released on 1948 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Forecasts of the Population of the United States

Author : Pascal Kidder Whelpton
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (48 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasts of the Population of the United States by : Pascal Kidder Whelpton

Download or read book Forecasts of the Population of the United States written by Pascal Kidder Whelpton and published by . This book was released on 1948 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Forecasts of the Population of the United States, 1945-1975

Author : Pascal Kidder Whelpton
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 113 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (48 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasts of the Population of the United States, 1945-1975 by : Pascal Kidder Whelpton

Download or read book Forecasts of the Population of the United States, 1945-1975 written by Pascal Kidder Whelpton and published by . This book was released on 1948 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Author : Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030424723
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Developments in Demographic Forecasting by : Stefano Mazzuco

Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Populations, Projections, Politics

Author : Henk A. De Gans
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9051707479
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (517 download)

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Book Synopsis Populations, Projections, Politics by : Henk A. De Gans

Download or read book Populations, Projections, Politics written by Henk A. De Gans and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2003 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the interrelations of population change, developments in projection methodology, and politics in the 1920s and 1930s. Together, the contributions in the book represent an important scholarly and critical contribution to the history of d

Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability

Author : Juha M. Alho
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139470353
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability by : Juha M. Alho

Download or read book Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability written by Juha M. Alho and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-03-13 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes.

Model-Based Demography

Author : Thomas K. Burch
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319654330
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Model-Based Demography by : Thomas K. Burch

Download or read book Model-Based Demography written by Thomas K. Burch and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-10-14 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Late in a career of more than sixty years, Thomas Burch, an internationally known social demographer, undertook a wide-ranging methodological critique of demography. This open access volume contains a selection of resulting papers, some previously unpublished, some published but not readily accessible [from past meetings of The International Union for the Scientific Study of Population and its research committees, or from other small conferences and seminars]. Rejecting the idea that demography is simply a branch of applied statistics, his work views it as an autonomous and complete scientific discipline. When viewed from the perspective of modern philosophy of science, specifically the semantic or model-based school, demography is a balanced discipline, with a rich body of techniques and data, but also with more and better theories than generally recognized. As demonstrated in this book, some demographic techniques can also be seen as theoretical models, and some substantive/behavioral models, commonly rejected as theory because of inconsistent observations, are now seen as valuable theoretical models, for example demographic transition theory. This book shows how demography can build a strong theoretical edifice on its broad and deep empirical foundation by adoption of the model-based approach to science. But the full-fruits of this approach will require demographers to make greater use of computer modeling [both macro- and micro-simulation], in the statement and manipulation of theoretical ideas, as well as for numerical computation. This book is open access under a CC BY license.

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

Author : Tommy Bengtsson
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030050750
Total Pages : 349 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting by : Tommy Bengtsson

Download or read book Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-28 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.

Subnational Population Estimates

Author : David A. Swanson
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9048189543
Total Pages : 420 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (481 download)

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Book Synopsis Subnational Population Estimates by : David A. Swanson

Download or read book Subnational Population Estimates written by David A. Swanson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-05-23 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing a unified and comprehensive treatment of the theory and techniques of sub-national population estimation, this much-needed publication does more than collate disparate source material. It examines hitherto unexplored methodological links between differing types of estimation from both the demographic and sample-survey traditions and is a self-contained primer that combines academic rigor with a wealth of real-world examples that are useful models for demographers. Between censuses, which are expensive, administratively complex, and thus infrequent, demographers and government officials must estimate population using either demographic modeling techniques or statistical surveys that sample a fraction of residents. These estimates play a central role in vital decisions that range from funding allocations and rate-setting to education, health and housing provision. They also provide important data to companies undertaking market research. However, mastering small-area and sub-national population estimation is complicated by scattered, incomplete and outdated academic sources—an issue this volume tackles head-on. Rapidly increasing population mobility is making inter-census estimation ever more important to strategic planners. This book will make the theory and techniques involved more accessible to anyone with an interest in developing or using population estimates.

Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries

Author : E. Tabeau
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0792368339
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (923 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries by : E. Tabeau

Download or read book Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries written by E. Tabeau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-02-28 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

Statistical Demography and Forecasting

Author : Juha Alho
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387283927
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Demography and Forecasting by : Juha Alho

Download or read book Statistical Demography and Forecasting written by Juha Alho and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-05-27 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. Presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. Exercises are included to facilitate its classroom use. Both authors have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.

Forecasts of the Population of the United States 1945-1975

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (453 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasts of the Population of the United States 1945-1975 by :

Download or read book Forecasts of the Population of the United States 1945-1975 written by and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I transmit herewith a report on the future population of the United States. Forecasts of the population, by color, nativity, age, and sex, are presented, by 5 year time intervals, up to 1975, according to various combinations of assumptions as to the future trends of fertility and mortality. The present report is a revision of all earlier report, Estimates of Future Population of the United States, 1940-2000, which was prepared for the National Resources Planning Board by Warren S. Thompson and P.K. Whelpton of the Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems and published in August, 1943. The increasing interest in matters relating to population growth in the future led to an unexpected demand for this earlier report, which soon exhausted the supply. On May 18, 1945, the Census Committee on Demography recommended that the Bureau publish revised estimates of future population, utilizing not only the results of the 1940 census as did the previous report, but also current estimates of population embodying the changes of the war years.

People, Population Change and Policies

Author : Charlotte Höhn
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1402066112
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis People, Population Change and Policies by : Charlotte Höhn

Download or read book People, Population Change and Policies written by Charlotte Höhn and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-03-08 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This two-volume work explores social cohesion and the demographic challenges of low birth rates and population aging. The authors approach the topic from the perspective of citizens and key policy actors, analyzing attitudes from 14 European countries regarding the European integration process, demographic trends, and expectations towards private networks and public policies. Volume 2 focuses on demographic developments, gender issues, and aging.

Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set

Author : Graziella Caselli
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 012765660X
Total Pages : 2857 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (276 download)

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Book Synopsis Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set by : Graziella Caselli

Download or read book Demography: Analysis and Synthesis, Four Volume Set written by Graziella Caselli and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2006-01-03 with total page 2857 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume collection of over 140 original chapters covers virtually everything of interest to demographers, sociologists, and others. Over 100 authors present population subjects in ways that provoke thinking and lead to the creation of new perspectives, not just facts and equations to be memorized. The articles follow a theory-methods-applications approach and so offer a kind of "one-stop shop" that is well suited for students and professors who need non-technical summaries, such as political scientists, public affairs specialists, and others. Unlike shorter handbooks, Demography: Analysis and Synthesis offers a long overdue, thorough treatment of the field. Choosing the analytical method that fits the data and the situation requires insights that the authors and editors of Demography: Analysis and Synthesis have explored and developed. This extended examination of demographic tools not only seeks to explain the analytical tools themselves, but also the relationships between general population dynamics and their natural, economic, social, political, and cultural environments. Limiting themselves to human populations only, the authors and editors cover subjects that range from the core building blocks of population change--fertility, mortality, and migration--to the consequences of demographic changes in the biological and health fields, population theories and doctrines, observation systems, and the teaching of demography. The international perspectives brought to these subjects is vital for those who want an unbiased, rounded overview of these complex, multifaceted subjects. Topics to be covered: * Population Dynamics and the Relationship Between Population Growth and Structure * The Determinants of Fertility * The Determinants of Mortality * The Determinants of Migration * Historical and Geographical Determinants of Population * The Effects of Population on Health, Economics, Culture, and the Environment * Population Policies * Data Collection Methods and Teaching about Population Studies * All chapters share a common format * Each chapter features several cross-references to other chapters * Tables, charts, and other non-text features are widespread * Each chapter contains at least 30 bibliographic citations

European Populations

Author : Van der Kaa
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 940109022X
Total Pages : 210 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis European Populations by : Van der Kaa

Download or read book European Populations written by Van der Kaa and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The changing demographic landscape which Europe is facing today and in the next decades reflects the past. These changes constitute important challenges to European populations and societies. Shifts in fertility and family formation, in health, morbidity and mortality, in internal and international migration as well as changes in age structures, in households, in labour forces, and in population growth and decline, will influence the living conditions and well-being of Europe's population directly or indirectly. The demographic challenge also concerns the environment, local, regional and national developments, education, production and consumption patterns, economic competitiveness, social security, housing, employment and transport, and health and social care provisions. These issues, their mechanisms, determinants and consequences also challenge the scientific study of population. As a major forum and 'market place' for scientific demographic debate, the 1999 European Population Conference (EPC99) was organized to take up this challenge. On the threshold of the third millennium, European populations are united in diversity and face major demographic issues.