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Decision Making Uncertainty Imperfection Deliberation And Scalability
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Book Synopsis Decision Making: Uncertainty, Imperfection, Deliberation and Scalability by : Tatiana V. Guy
Download or read book Decision Making: Uncertainty, Imperfection, Deliberation and Scalability written by Tatiana V. Guy and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-09 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selfish decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: • task allocation to maximize “the wisdom of the crowd”; • design of a society of “edutainment” robots who account for one anothers’ emotional states; • recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; • coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; • efficiently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized medicine; • the effects of personality on risky decision making. The volume is a valuable source for researchers, graduate students and practitioners in machine learning, stochastic control, robotics, and economics, among other fields.
Book Synopsis Computational Linguistics and Intelligent Text Processing by : Alexander Gelbukh
Download or read book Computational Linguistics and Intelligent Text Processing written by Alexander Gelbukh and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-10-09 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The two-volume set LNCS 10761 + 10762 constitutes revised selected papers from the CICLing 2017 conference which took place in Budapest, Hungary, in April 2017. The total of 90 papers presented in the two volumes was carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. In addition, the proceedings contain 4 invited papers. The papers are organized in the following topical sections: Part I: general; morphology and text segmentation; syntax and parsing; word sense disambiguation; reference and coreference resolution; named entity recognition; semantics and text similarity; information extraction; speech recognition; applications to linguistics and the humanities. Part II: sentiment analysis; opinion mining; author profiling and authorship attribution; social network analysis; machine translation; text summarization; information retrieval and text classification; practical applications.
Book Synopsis Statistics and Causality by : Wolfgang Wiedermann
Download or read book Statistics and Causality written by Wolfgang Wiedermann and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-06-07 with total page 478 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: b”STATISTICS AND CAUSALITYA one-of-a-kind guide to identifying and dealing with modern statistical developments in causality Written by a group of well-known experts, Statistics and Causality: Methods for Applied Empirical Research focuses on the most up-to-date developments in statistical methods in respect to causality. Illustrating the properties of statistical methods to theories of causality, the book features a summary of the latest developments in methods for statistical analysis of causality hypotheses. The book is divided into five accessible and independent parts. The first part introduces the foundations of causal structures and discusses issues associated with standard mechanistic and difference-making theories of causality. The second part features novel generalizations of methods designed to make statements concerning the direction of effects. The third part illustrates advances in Granger-causality testing and related issues. The fourth part focuses on counterfactual approaches and propensity score analysis. Finally, the fifth part presents designs for causal inference with an overview of the research designs commonly used in epidemiology. Statistics and Causality: Methods for Applied Empirical Research also includes: New statistical methodologies and approaches to causal analysis in the context of the continuing development of philosophical theories End-of-chapter bibliographies that provide references for further discussions and additional research topics Discussions on the use and applicability of software when appropriate Statistics and Causality: Methods for Applied Empirical Research is an ideal reference for practicing statisticians, applied mathematicians, psychologists, sociologists, logicians, medical professionals, epidemiologists, and educators who want to learn more about new methodologies in causal analysis. The book is also an excellent textbook for graduate-level courses in causality and qualitative logic.
Book Synopsis Novel Approaches in Microbiome Analyses and Data Visualization by : Jessica Galloway-Peña
Download or read book Novel Approaches in Microbiome Analyses and Data Visualization written by Jessica Galloway-Peña and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2019-02-06 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High-throughput sequencing technologies are widely used to study microbial ecology across species and habitats in order to understand the impacts of microbial communities on host health, metabolism, and the environment. Due to the dynamic nature of microbial communities, longitudinal microbiome analyses play an essential role in these types of investigations. Key questions in microbiome studies aim at identifying specific microbial taxa, enterotypes, genes, or metabolites associated with specific outcomes, as well as potential factors that influence microbial communities. However, the characteristics of microbiome data, such as sparsity and skewedness, combined with the nature of data collection, reflected often as uneven sampling or missing data, make commonly employed statistical approaches to handle repeated measures in longitudinal studies inadequate. Therefore, many researchers have begun to investigate methods that could improve incorporating these features when studying clinical, host, metabolic, or environmental associations with longitudinal microbiome data. In addition to the inferential aspect, it is also becoming apparent that visualization of high dimensional data in a way which is both intelligible and comprehensive is another difficult challenge that microbiome researchers face. Visualization is crucial in both the analysis and understanding of metagenomic data. Researchers must create clear graphic representations that give biological insight without being overly complicated. Thus, this Research Topic seeks to both review and provide novels approaches that are being developed to integrate microbiome data and complex metadata into meaningful mathematical, statistical and computational models. We believe this topic is fundamental to understanding the importance of microbial communities and provides a useful reference for other investigators approaching the field.
Book Synopsis Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity by : Joe Lorkowski
Download or read book Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity written by Joe Lorkowski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-07-01 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with “granules” that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making —so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : David E. Bell
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by David E. Bell and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1995 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These authors draw on nearly 50 years of combined teaching and consulting experience to give readers a straightforward yet systematic approach for making estimates about the likelihood and consequences of future events -- and then using those assessments to arrive at sound decisions. The book's real-world cases, supplemented with expository text and spreadsheets, help readers master such techniques as decision trees and simulation, such concepts as probability, the value of information, and strategic gaming; and such applications as inventory stocking problems, bidding situations, and negotiating.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Charles A. Holloway
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Charles A. Holloway and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1979 with total page 550 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction and basic concepts; Models and probability; Choices and preferences; Preference assessment procedures; Behavioral assumptions and limitations of decision analysis; Risk sharing and incentives; Choices with multiple attributes.
Author :Tatiana Valentine Guy Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :3642246478 Total Pages :195 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (422 download)
Book Synopsis Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers by : Tatiana Valentine Guy
Download or read book Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers written by Tatiana Valentine Guy and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-11-13 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, little research has been done from the perspective of computer science and associated disciplines like machine learning, information theory and neuroscience. This book is a major contribution to such research. Some of the particular topics addressed include: How should we formalise rational decision making of a single imperfect decision maker? Does the answer change for a system of imperfect decision makers? Can we extend existing prescriptive theories for perfect decision makers to make them useful for imperfect ones? How can we exploit the relation of these problems to the control under varying and uncertain resources constraints as well as to the problem of the computational decision making? What can we learn from natural, engineered, and social systems to help us address these issues?
Book Synopsis Planning on Uncertainty by : Ruth Prince Mack
Download or read book Planning on Uncertainty written by Ruth Prince Mack and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1971 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Managing Under Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by : Mohammed Abdellaoui
Download or read book Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-11-25 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Book Synopsis Decision-Making in Conservation and Natural Resource Management by : Nils Bunnefeld
Download or read book Decision-Making in Conservation and Natural Resource Management written by Nils Bunnefeld and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-07-06 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to making good decisions about wildlife management and biodiversity conservation against a backdrop of socio-environmental change.
Book Synopsis Public Participation in Environmental Assessment and Decision Making by : National Research Council
Download or read book Public Participation in Environmental Assessment and Decision Making written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2008-11-07 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Federal agencies have taken steps to include the public in a wide range of environmental decisions. Although some form of public participation is often required by law, agencies usually have broad discretion about the extent of that involvement. Approaches vary widely, from holding public information-gathering meetings to forming advisory groups to actively including citizens in making and implementing decisions. Proponents of public participation argue that those who must live with the outcome of an environmental decision should have some influence on it. Critics maintain that public participation slows decision making and can lower its quality by including people unfamiliar with the science involved. This book concludes that, when done correctly, public participation improves the quality of federal agencies' decisions about the environment. Well-managed public involvement also increases the legitimacy of decisions in the eyes of those affected by them, which makes it more likely that the decisions will be implemented effectively. This book recommends that agencies recognize public participation as valuable to their objectives, not just as a formality required by the law. It details principles and approaches agencies can use to successfully involve the public.
Book Synopsis Decision Making in Action by : Gary A. Klein
Download or read book Decision Making in Action written by Gary A. Klein and published by Ablex Publishing Corporation. This book was released on 1992-08-01 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the new perspective of naturalistic decision making. The point of departure is how people make decisions in complex, time-pressured, ambiguous, and changing environments. The purpose of this book is to present and elaborate on past models developed to explain this type of decision making. The central philosophy of the book is that classical decision theory has been unproductive since it is so heavily grounded in economics and mathematics. The contributors believe there is little to be learned from laboratory studies about how people actually handle difficult and interesting tasks; therefore, the book presents a critique of classical decision theory. The models of naturalistic decision making described by the contributors were derived to explain the behavior of firefighters, business people, jurors, nuclear power plant operators, and command-and-control officers. The models are unique in that they address the way people use experience to frame situations and adopt courses of action. The models explain the strengths of skilled decision makers. Naturalistic decision research requires the examination of field settings, and a section of the book covers methods for conducting meaningful research outside the laboratory. In addition, since his approach has applied value, the book covers issues of training and decision support systems.
Book Synopsis A Theory of Case-Based Decisions by : Itzhak Gilboa
Download or read book A Theory of Case-Based Decisions written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-07-26 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work, a paradigm for modelling decision-making under uncertainty, describes the general theory and its relationship to planning, repeated choice problems, inductive inference, and learning; and highlights its mathematical and philosophical foundations.
