Decision Making With Imperfect Decision Makers

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Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

Author : Tatiana Valentine Guy
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642246478
Total Pages : 195 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (422 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers by : Tatiana Valentine Guy

Download or read book Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers written by Tatiana Valentine Guy and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-11-13 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, little research has been done from the perspective of computer science and associated disciplines like machine learning, information theory and neuroscience. This book is a major contribution to such research. Some of the particular topics addressed include: How should we formalise rational decision making of a single imperfect decision maker? Does the answer change for a system of imperfect decision makers? Can we extend existing prescriptive theories for perfect decision makers to make them useful for imperfect ones? How can we exploit the relation of these problems to the control under varying and uncertain resources constraints as well as to the problem of the computational decision making? What can we learn from natural, engineered, and social systems to help us address these issues?

Decision Making and Imperfection

Author : Tatiana Guy
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9783642364075
Total Pages : 187 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making and Imperfection by : Tatiana Guy

Download or read book Decision Making and Imperfection written by Tatiana Guy and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-02-02 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process. The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider: · how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions; · how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available; · how to decrease imperfection via automated elicitation of DM preferences; · a human's limited willingness to master the available decision-support tools as an additional source of imperfection; · how the decision maker's emotional state influences the rationality; a DM support of edutainment robot based on its system of values and respecting emotions. The book will appeal to anyone interested in the challenging topic of DM theory and its applications.

Decisions, Decisions

Author : David A. Welch
Publisher : Prometheus Books
ISBN 13 : 1615921524
Total Pages : 296 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (159 download)

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Book Synopsis Decisions, Decisions by : David A. Welch

Download or read book Decisions, Decisions written by David A. Welch and published by Prometheus Books. This book was released on 2009-12-02 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: You''re tempted to accept a promising job offer in another city, but moving would entail considerable sacrifice on the part of your family. What should you do? Your elderly mother can no longer take care of herself but she doesn''t get along with your husband and dreads the prospect of moving into a nursing home. What is the solution? Whether you are faced with decisions momentous or trivial, how you go about resolving everyday dilemmas will definitely affect your level of satisfaction in life. In this engrossing and entertaining guide, David Welch, who has studied the decision-making process at the highest levels, shows how both the science and the art of decision-making are essential to us all. Welch lays out nine steps to effective decision-making and then demonstrates how to apply these steps to real-world situations. He gives readers the intellectual tools to assess their strengths and weaknesses and stresses that self-knowledge is critical for making the right decisions. This enjoyable, clearly written guide will enable decision-makers at every level to find the best possible solution for dilemmas both big and small.

Decision Making and Imperfection

Author : Tatiana V Guy
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3642364063
Total Pages : 187 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (423 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making and Imperfection by : Tatiana V Guy

Download or read book Decision Making and Imperfection written by Tatiana V Guy and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-02-01 with total page 187 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making (DM) is ubiquitous in both natural and artificial systems. The decisions made often differ from those recommended by the axiomatically well-grounded normative Bayesian decision theory, in a large part due to limited cognitive and computational resources of decision makers (either artificial units or humans). This state of a airs is often described by saying that decision makers are imperfect and exhibit bounded rationality. The neglected influence of emotional state and personality traits is an additional reason why normative theory fails to model human DM process. The book is a joint effort of the top researchers from different disciplines to identify sources of imperfection and ways how to decrease discrepancies between the prescriptive theory and real-life DM. The contributions consider: · how a crowd of imperfect decision makers outperforms experts' decisions; · how to decrease decision makers' imperfection by reducing knowledge available; · how to decrease imperfection via automated elicitation of DM preferences; · a human's limited willingness to master the available decision-support tools as an additional source of imperfection; · how the decision maker's emotional state influences the rationality; a DM support of edutainment robot based on its system of values and respecting emotions. The book will appeal to anyone interested in the challenging topic of DM theory and its applications.

Decision Making

Author : Tatiana Valentine Guy
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783319151458
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (514 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making by : Tatiana Valentine Guy

Download or read book Decision Making written by Tatiana Valentine Guy and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selƠ̐lsh decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: ĺØ task allocation to maximize ĺlthe wisdom of the crowdĺl; ĺØ design of a society of ĺledutainmentĺl robots who account for one anothersĺl emotional states; ĺØ recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; ĺØ coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; ĺØ efƠ̐lciently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized medicine; ĺØ the effects of personality on risky decision making. The volume is a valuable source for researchers, graduate students and practitioners in machine learning, stochastic control, robotics, and economics, among other Ơ̐lelds.

The Adaptive Decision Maker

Author : John W. Payne
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521425261
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (252 download)

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Book Synopsis The Adaptive Decision Maker by : John W. Payne

Download or read book The Adaptive Decision Maker written by John W. Payne and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1993-05-28 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demonstrates how decision makers balance effort and accuracy considerations and predict the particular choice of strategy.

Harvard Business Essentials, Decision Making

Author :
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 1422160831
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (221 download)

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Book Synopsis Harvard Business Essentials, Decision Making by :

Download or read book Harvard Business Essentials, Decision Making written by and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2005-12-01 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision making is a critical part of management, and bad choices can damage careers and the bottom line. This book offers the tools and advice managers need to avoid common biases and arrive at and implement decisions that are both sound and ethical. The Harvard Business Essentials series provides comprehensive advice, personal coaching, background information, and guidance on the most relevant topics in business. Whether you are a new manager seeking to expand your skills or a seasoned professional looking to broaden your knowledge base, these solution-oriented books put reliable answers at your fingertips.

The Decision Maker's Playbook

Author : Simon Mueller
Publisher : Pearson UK
ISBN 13 : 1292129360
Total Pages : 230 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (921 download)

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Book Synopsis The Decision Maker's Playbook by : Simon Mueller

Download or read book The Decision Maker's Playbook written by Simon Mueller and published by Pearson UK. This book was released on 2019-09-09 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Decision Maker's Playbook is an easy-to-use, “how-to” toolkit to improve managers' decision making, using visualisations, relevant examples and actionable checklists that cater to its main target group: analytically interested, busy managers and entrepreneurs. The Decision Maker's Playbook will help readers navigate a complex world. Along the four chapters of the books, it will help you in: 1. Collective Evidence 2. Connecting the Dots 3. Crafting the Approach 4. Complete the Mission The Decision Maker's Playbook is your personal toolbox to help you make better decisions. It offers practical advice to help you understand, analyse and shape your world. As simplified representations of reality, the models portrayed in this book allow us to see patterns, identify relationships, and view the world from different vantage points. They help us understand and break up complex phenomena into tractable pieces. From Unknown unknowns over Fat Tails to Counterfactuals, this book will make lesser known but highly relevant models available for immediate use – in a visual way, supported by applicable case studies and without jargon.

Brilliant Decision Making

Author : Robbie Steinhouse
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781512941210
Total Pages : 191 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (412 download)

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Book Synopsis Brilliant Decision Making by : Robbie Steinhouse

Download or read book Brilliant Decision Making written by Robbie Steinhouse and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 191 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Wharton on Making Decisions

Author : Stephen J. Hoch
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780471689386
Total Pages : 356 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (893 download)

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Book Synopsis Wharton on Making Decisions by : Stephen J. Hoch

Download or read book Wharton on Making Decisions written by Stephen J. Hoch and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-08-20 with total page 356 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Perspectives from leaders in decision science at Wharton Organized in part through Wharton's Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, the book assembles leading researchers from Wharton's business faculty who demonstrate how to apply the latest approaches in decision-making from four perspectives: personal, managerial, negotiator, and consumer. Each chapter describes how decisions are actually made, presents the ideal scenario, and then provides practical suggestions for improvement. The subjects range from when consumers will choose variety, integrating intuition into decisions, and applying game theory and strategic decisions, to decision factors in negotiations and how choices are made about insurance and health care.

Making Decisions That Matter

Author : Kathleen M. Galotti
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 1135664889
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (356 download)

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Book Synopsis Making Decisions That Matter by : Kathleen M. Galotti

Download or read book Making Decisions That Matter written by Kathleen M. Galotti and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2005-07-11 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The goal of this book is to describe ongoing research that examines real people making real decsions, and compares it with theoretical predications to provide readers with "food for thought" when it comes to their own decision making & to point out quest

The Practical Decision Maker

Author : Thomas R. Harvey
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 1475863195
Total Pages : 157 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (758 download)

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Book Synopsis The Practical Decision Maker by : Thomas R. Harvey

Download or read book The Practical Decision Maker written by Thomas R. Harvey and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2022-07-11 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are you lacking confidence in your decision-making abilities? Leaders often have to make challenging decisions, such as how do we improve employee morale? How do we decrease employee turnover? What needs to happen to ensure employees and stakeholders feel safe to return to work during a pandemic? Great leaders understand how to balance emotion with reason and to make decisions that positively impact their organizations. Making good decisions in difficult situations is no small feat. Change, uncertainty, stress, and anxiety all contribute to this dilemma. The Practical Decision Maker: A Handbook for Decision Making and Problem Solving, 2nd edition will help you achieve a high level of confidence and give you practical tools to make faster and more effective practical decisions. Decision-making has never been more critical, especially for today’s leaders. Updates to this new edition include additions to reflect 21st century technology and the divisive times leaders are in today.

Whatever it Takes

Author : Morgan W. McCall
Publisher : Prentice Hall
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Whatever it Takes by : Morgan W. McCall

Download or read book Whatever it Takes written by Morgan W. McCall and published by Prentice Hall. This book was released on 1985 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This provocative book takes the stance that managerial decision making is seldom amenable to such strategies. In modern organizations, decision making requires acting without all the facts, juggling many problems at once, shooting from the hip, and nursing political processes."--Back cover.

A Primer on Decision Making

Author : James G. March
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1439108331
Total Pages : 425 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (391 download)

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Book Synopsis A Primer on Decision Making by : James G. March

Download or read book A Primer on Decision Making written by James G. March and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 1994-05-23 with total page 425 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building on lecture notes from his acclaimed course at Stanford University, James March provides a brilliant introduction to decision making, a central human activity fundamental to individual, group, organizational, and societal life. March draws on research from all the disciplines of social and behavioral science to show decision making in its broadest context. By emphasizing how decisions are actually made -- as opposed to how they should be made -- he enables those involved in the process to understand it both as observers and as participants. March sheds new light on the decision-making process by delineating four deep issues that persistently divide students of decision making: Are decisions based on rational choices involving preferences and expected consequences, or on rules that are appropriate to the identity of the decision maker and the situation? Is decision making a consistent, clear process or one characterized by ambiguity and inconsistency? Is decision making significant primarily for its outcomes, or for the individual and social meanings it creates and sustains? And finally, are the outcomes of decision processes attributable solely to the actions of individuals, or to the combined influence of interacting individuals, organizations, and societies? March's observations on how intelligence is -- or is not -- achieved through decision making, and possibilities for enhancing decision intelligence, are also provided. March explains key concepts of vital importance to students of decision making and decision makers, such as limited rationality, history-dependent rules, and ambiguity, and weaves these ideas into a full depiction of decision making. He includes a discussion of the modern aspects of several classic issues underlying these concepts, such as the relation between reason and ignorance, intentionality and fate, and meaning and interpretation. This valuable textbook by one of the seminal figures in the history of organizational decision making will be required reading for a new generation of scholars, managers, and other decision makers.

The Managerial Decision-making Process

Author : E. Frank Harrison
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 582 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Managerial Decision-making Process by : E. Frank Harrison

Download or read book The Managerial Decision-making Process written by E. Frank Harrison and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 582 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rather than present decision making strictly as a quantitative science, this text views it as a multidimensional process involving values, psychology, sociology, social psychology, and politics. Using a process modela focus on the process of a decision rather than the outcomethe book presents a variety of perspectives useful for making and evaluating decisions in all kinds of organizations.

Smart Decisions

Author : Thomas N. Martin
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137537000
Total Pages : 185 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (375 download)

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Book Synopsis Smart Decisions by : Thomas N. Martin

Download or read book Smart Decisions written by Thomas N. Martin and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's world is complex and getting more so each day. Huge multinational corporations, international crisis and fast breaking events require most people to make decisions on a daily basis without the tools to understand the long term impact that today's decision might create. Because most people have never really been trained in how to make important complex decisions most people rely on experience, and 'gut reaction' which is okay for many decisions, but not okay for decision that will have meaningful impact on organizations and individual. Decision makers need to develop the art and science of strategic decision making. Here, Professor Thomas Martin explains the need for decision makers to modify their thinking about how they deal with acquiring and analyzing information in each of the decision-making process steps. This approach requiring thinking modification will lengthen the process, make it more complex, and to some more arduous, but the comprehensiveness of the new thinking approach should lead to improved and more effective decision making. In this book, Dr. Martin presents a thinking modification framework that asserts that in the decision-making process, there are three situational states — a current state, future state, and a transitional state that one must deliberate in finding a solution. For each of these situational states, Martin develops an identical five-step process to determine the best decision to make. The steps of this process include: • Change-Needing Situational Analysis • Challenge Framing & Causal Analysis • Generating Solution Ideas • Choosing a Solution Set • Implementation and Aftermath Planning This book will appeal to decision makers, leaders, and students of management who want a specific framework that details the process behind making strategic, well-informed decisions.

Noise

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Little, Brown
ISBN 13 : 031645138X
Total Pages : 429 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (164 download)

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Book Synopsis Noise by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.