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Bounded Rationality In Decision Making Under Uncertainty Towards Optimal Granularity
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Book Synopsis Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity by : Joe Lorkowski
Download or read book Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity written by Joe Lorkowski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-07-01 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with “granules” that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making —so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Bounded Rationality by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Download or read book Bounded Rationality written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2002-07-26 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning. This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people's reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it analyzes social norms, imitation, and other cultural tools as rational strategies; and it shows how smart heuristics can exploit the structure of environments.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Constraints by : Martine Ceberio
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Constraints written by Martine Ceberio and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-01-03 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows, on numerous examples, how to make decisions in realistic situations when we have both uncertainty and constraints. In most these situations, the book's emphasis is on the why-question, i.e., on a theoretical explanation for empirical formulas and techniques. Such explanations are important: they help understand why these techniques work well in some cases and not so well in others, and thus, help practitioners decide whether a technique is appropriate for a given situation. Example of applications described in the book ranges from science (biosciences, geosciences, and physics) to electrical and civil engineering, education, psychology and decision making, and religion—and, of course, include computer science, AI (in particular, eXplainable AI), and machine learning. The book can be recommended to researchers and students in these application areas. Many of the examples use general techniques that can be used in other application areas as well, so it is also useful for practitioners and researchers in other areas who are looking for possible theoretical explanations of empirical formulas and techniques.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty, with a Special Emphasis on Geosciences and Education by : Laxman Bokati
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty, with a Special Emphasis on Geosciences and Education written by Laxman Bokati and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-03-21 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes new techniques for making decisions in situations with uncertainty and new applications of decision-making techniques. The main emphasis is on situations when it is difficult to decrease uncertainty. For example, it is very difficult to accurately predict human economic behavior, so in economics, it is very important to take this uncertainty into account when making decisions. Other areas where it is difficult to decrease uncertainty are geosciences and teaching. The book analyzes the general problem of decision making and shows how its results can be applied to economics, geosciences, and teaching. Since all these applications involve computing, the book also shows how these results can be applied to computing, including deep learning and quantum computing. The book is recommended to researchers, practitioners, and students who want to learn more about decision making under uncertainty—and who want to work on remaining challenges.
Book Synopsis Credible Asset Allocation, Optimal Transport Methods, and Related Topics by : Songsak Sriboonchitta
Download or read book Credible Asset Allocation, Optimal Transport Methods, and Related Topics written by Songsak Sriboonchitta and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-07-29 with total page 762 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes state-of-the-art economic ideas and how these ideas can be (and are) used to make economic decision (in particular, to optimally allocate assets) and to gauge the results of different economic decisions (in particular, by using optimal transport methods). Special emphasis is paid to machine learning techniques (including deep learning) and to different aspects of quantum econometrics—when quantum physics and quantum computing models are techniques are applied to study economic phenomena. Applications range from more traditional economic areas to more non-traditional topics such as economic aspects of tourism, cryptocurrencies, telecommunication infrastructure, and pandemic. This book helps student to learn new techniques, practitioners to become better knowledgeable of the state-of-the-art econometric techniques, and researchers to further develop these important research directions
Book Synopsis Toward Humanoid Robots: The Role of Fuzzy Sets by : Cengiz Kahraman
Download or read book Toward Humanoid Robots: The Role of Fuzzy Sets written by Cengiz Kahraman and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-04-04 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a comprehensive reference guide for modeling humanoid robots using intelligent and fuzzy systems. It provides readers with the necessary intelligent and fuzzy tools for controlling humanoid robots by incomplete, vague, and imprecise information or insufficient data, where classical modeling approaches cannot be applied. The respective chapters, written by prominent researchers, explain a wealth of both basic and advanced concepts including fuzzy control, metaheuristic-based control, neutrosophic control, etc. To foster reader comprehension, all chapters include relevant numerical examples or case studies. Taken together, they form an excellent reference guide for researchers, lecturers, and postgraduate students pursuing research on humanoid robots. Moreover, by extending all the main aspects of humanoid robots to its intelligent and fuzzy counterparts, the book presents a dynamic snapshot of the field that is expected to stimulate new directions, ideas, and developments.
Download or read book Management written by Christopher P. Neck and published by SAGE Publications, Incorporated. This book was released on 2020-11-18 with total page 529 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Management, Third Edition introduces students to the planning, organizing, leading, and controlling functions of management with an emphasis on how managers can cultivate an entrepreneurial mindset. The text includes 34 cases profiling a wide range of companies including Lululemon, Nintendo, Netflix, Trader Joe’s, and the NBA. Authors Christopher P. Neck, Jeffrey D. Houghton, and Emma L. Murray use a variety of examples, applications, and insights from real-world managers to help students develop the knowledge, mindset, and skills they need to succeed in today’s fast-paced, dynamic workplace. This title is accompanied by a complete teaching and learning package. Contact your SAGE representative to request a demo. Digital Option / Courseware SAGE Vantage is an intuitive digital platform that delivers this text’s content and course materials in a learning experience that offers auto-graded assignments and interactive multimedia tools, all carefully designed to ignite student engagement and drive critical thinking. Built with you and your students in mind, it offers simple course set-up and enables students to better prepare for class. Learn more. Assignable Video with Assessment Assignable video (available with SAGE Vantage) is tied to learning objectives and curated exclusively for this text to bring concepts to life. Watch a sample video now. Assignable Self-Assessments Assignable self-assessments (available with SAGE Vantage) allow students to engage with the material in a more meaningful way that supports learning. LMS Cartridge Import this title’s instructor resources into your school’s learning management system (LMS) and save time. Don’t use an LMS? You can still access all of the same online resources for this title via the password-protected Instructor Resource Site. Learn more.
Book Synopsis Recent Developments in Data Science and Intelligent Analysis of Information by : Oleg Chertov
Download or read book Recent Developments in Data Science and Intelligent Analysis of Information written by Oleg Chertov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-04 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the proceedings of the XVIII International Conference on Data Science and Intelligent Analysis of Information (ICDSIAI'2018), held in Kiev, Ukraine on June 4-7, 2018. The conference series, which dates back to 2001 when it was known as the Workshop on Intelligent Analysis of Information, was renamed in 2008 to reflect the broadening of its scope and the composition of its organizers and participants. ICDSIAI'2018 brought together a large number of participants from numerous countries in Europe, Asia and the USA. The papers presented addressed novel theoretical developments in methods, algorithms and implementations for the broadly perceived areas of big data mining and intelligent analysis of data and information, representation and processing of uncertainty and fuzziness, including contributions on a range of applications in the fields of decision-making and decision support, economics, education, ecology, law, and various areas of technology. The book is dedicated to the memory of the conference founder, the late Professor Tetiana Taran, an outstanding scientist in the field of artificial intelligence whose research record, vision and personality have greatly contributed to the development of Ukrainian artificial intelligence and computer science.
Book Synopsis Organizational Behavior by : Christopher P. Neck
Download or read book Organizational Behavior written by Christopher P. Neck and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2023-04-04 with total page 531 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Organizational Behavior: A Skill-Building Approach, Third Edition examines how individual characteristics, group dynamics, and organizational factors affect performance, motivation, and job satisfaction. Translating the latest research into practical applications and best practices, authors Christopher P. Neck, Jeffery D. Houghton, and Emma Murray unpack how managers can develop their managerial skills to unleash the potential of their employees.
Book Synopsis Philosophies of Structural Safety and Reliability by : Vladimir Raizer
Download or read book Philosophies of Structural Safety and Reliability written by Vladimir Raizer and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-07-28 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is certain to be found in structural engineering, making it crucial to structure design. This book covers three competing philosophies behind structural safety and reliability: probabilistic analysis, fuzzy set-based treatments, and the convex approach. Explaining the theory behind probabilistic analysis, fuzzy set-based treatments, and the convex approach in detail, alongside their implementation, use, and benefits, the book compares and contrasts these methods, enabling the reader to solve problems associated with uncertainty. These uncertainty issues can be seen in civil engineering structures, risk of earthquakes, impact of rough seas on ships, and turbulence affecting aerospace vehicles. Building on the authors’ many years of experience in the field, Philosophies of Structural Safety and Reliability is an essential guide to structural uncertainty. Topics covered in the book include properties of materials and their structural deterioration, safety factor and reliability, risk evaluation and loads, and their combinations. This book will be of interest to students and professionals in the fields of aerospace, civil, mechanical, marine, and ocean engineering.
Author :Tatiana Valentine Guy Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :3642246478 Total Pages :195 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (422 download)
Book Synopsis Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers by : Tatiana Valentine Guy
Download or read book Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers written by Tatiana Valentine Guy and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-11-13 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, little research has been done from the perspective of computer science and associated disciplines like machine learning, information theory and neuroscience. This book is a major contribution to such research. Some of the particular topics addressed include: How should we formalise rational decision making of a single imperfect decision maker? Does the answer change for a system of imperfect decision makers? Can we extend existing prescriptive theories for perfect decision makers to make them useful for imperfect ones? How can we exploit the relation of these problems to the control under varying and uncertain resources constraints as well as to the problem of the computational decision making? What can we learn from natural, engineered, and social systems to help us address these issues?
Author :Management Association, Information Resources Publisher :IGI Global ISBN 13 :1799880990 Total Pages :1534 pages Book Rating :4.7/5 (998 download)
Book Synopsis Research Anthology on Multi-Industry Uses of Genetic Programming and Algorithms by : Management Association, Information Resources
Download or read book Research Anthology on Multi-Industry Uses of Genetic Programming and Algorithms written by Management Association, Information Resources and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2020-12-05 with total page 1534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Genetic programming is a new and evolutionary method that has become a novel area of research within artificial intelligence known for automatically generating high-quality solutions to optimization and search problems. This automatic aspect of the algorithms and the mimicking of natural selection and genetics makes genetic programming an intelligent component of problem solving that is highly regarded for its efficiency and vast capabilities. With the ability to be modified and adapted, easily distributed, and effective in large-scale/wide variety of problems, genetic algorithms and programming can be utilized in many diverse industries. This multi-industry uses vary from finance and economics to business and management all the way to healthcare and the sciences. The use of genetic programming and algorithms goes beyond human capabilities, enhancing the business and processes of various essential industries and improving functionality along the way. The Research Anthology on Multi-Industry Uses of Genetic Programming and Algorithms covers the implementation, tools and technologies, and impact on society that genetic programming and algorithms have had throughout multiple industries. By taking a multi-industry approach, this book covers the fundamentals of genetic programming through its technological benefits and challenges along with the latest advancements and future outlooks for computer science. This book is ideal for academicians, biological engineers, computer programmers, scientists, researchers, and upper-level students seeking the latest research on genetic programming.
Book Synopsis Fuzzy Optimization, Decision-making and Operations Research by : Chiranjibe Jana
Download or read book Fuzzy Optimization, Decision-making and Operations Research written by Chiranjibe Jana and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-11-25 with total page 753 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After developing fuzzy set theory, many contributors focused their research on the extension of fuzzy sets and their computational methodologies, strengthening modern science and technology. In some real-life phenomena, the conventional methods and traditional fuzzy sets cannot be explained, whereas the extension of fuzzy sets and effective new computing methods can explain it adequately. This edited book presents a new view of fuzzy set-measurement methods entitled "Fuzzy Optimization, Decision Making and Operations Research: Theory and Applications", which deals with different perspectives and areas of research. All chapters are divided into three parts: fuzzy optimization, fuzzy decision-making, and fuzzy operation research. The goal of this book is to provide a relevant methodological framework covering the core fields of fuzzy decision-making method, fuzzy optimization method, fuzzy graphics method, fuzzy operations research, fuzzy optimization using graph theory, fuzzy support systems and its real and industrial applications. For many people, fuzzy words' industrial engineering and scientific meanings are still an advanced system for improving modern science and technology. Although fuzzy logic can be applied to many different areas, people do not know how different fuzzy approaches can be applied to various products currently on the market. It is written for professionals who wish to share their expertise, improve their findings, and provide relevant information in the fields of fuzzy methods and their application in decision-making, optimization theory, graph theory and operations research. This book is aimed at experts and practitioners in the fields of fuzzy optimization, fuzzy decision-making, and fuzzy operation research.
Book Synopsis Innovative Perspectives on Interactive Communication Systems and Technologies by : Sarfraz, Muhammad
Download or read book Innovative Perspectives on Interactive Communication Systems and Technologies written by Sarfraz, Muhammad and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2020-04-03 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Digital communication has become increasingly prominent in numerous disciplines throughout society due to the high usage levels of interactive systems. Professionals continue to apply trending technologies to their traditional practices as social interaction becomes more computerized. As new innovations are continually being discovered, researchers and practitioners in various areas of work need to stay up to date on the latest findings within interactive communication systems. Innovative Perspectives on Interactive Communication Systems and Technologies is a collection of innovative research on the interdisciplinary methods of internet-based social interaction technologies and their impact on communicative practices in various professional fields. While highlighting topics including health communication, small group settings, and design philosophies, this book is ideally designed for industry experts, researchers, engineers, scientists, policymakers, practitioners, academicians, and students seeking research on modern advancements of interactive communication technologies through real-world applications.
Book Synopsis Extendable Rationality by : Davide Secchi
Download or read book Extendable Rationality written by Davide Secchi and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-10-20 with total page 161 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “How do people make decisions in organizations?” is the question at the core of this book. Do people act rationally? Under what conditions can information and knowledge be shared to improve decision making? Davide Secchi applies concepts and theories from cognitive science, organizational behavior, and social psychology to explore the dynamics of decision making. In particular, he integrates “bounded rationality” (people are only partly rational; they have (a) limited computational capabilities and (b) limited access to information) and “distributed cognition” (knowledge is not confined to an individual, but is distributed across the members of a group) to build upon the pioneering work of Herbert Simon (1916-2001) on rational decision making and contribute fresh insights. This book is divided into two parts. The first part (Chapters 2 to 5) explores how recent studies on biases, prospect theory, heuristics, and emotions provide the so-called “map” of bounded rationality. The second part (Chapter 6 to 8) presents the idea of extendable rationality. In this section, Secchi identifies the limitations of bounded rationality and focuses more heavily on socially-based decision processes and the role of “docility” in teaching, managing, and executing decisions in organizations. The practical implications extend broadly to issues relating to change and innovation, as organizations adapt to evolving market conditions, implementing new systems, and effectively managing limited resources. The final chapter outlines an agenda for future research to help understand the decision making characteristics and capabilities of an organization.
Book Synopsis Simply Rational by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Download or read book Simply Rational written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2015-03-03 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a "heuristic revolution" that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.
Book Synopsis Social and Economic Factors in Decision Making under Uncertainty by : Kinga Posadzy
Download or read book Social and Economic Factors in Decision Making under Uncertainty written by Kinga Posadzy and published by Linköping University Electronic Press. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this thesis is to improve the understanding of human behavior that goes beyond monetary rewards. In particular, it investigates social influences in individual’s decision making in situations that involve coordination, competition, and deciding for others. Further, it compares how monetary and social outcomes are perceived. The common theme of all studies is uncertainty. The first four essays study individual decisions that have uncertain consequences, be it due to the actions of others or chance. The last essay, in turn, uses the advances in research on decision making under uncertainty to predict behavior in riskless choices. The first essay, Fairness Versus Efficiency: How Procedural Fairness Concerns Affect Coordination, investigates whether preferences for fair rules undermine the efficiency of coordination mechanisms that put some individuals at a disadvantage. The results from a laboratory experiment show that the existence of coordination mechanisms, such as action recommendations, increases efficiency, even if one party is strongly disadvantaged by the mechanism. Further, it is demonstrated that while individuals’ behavior does not depend on the fairness of the coordination mechanism, their beliefs about people’s behavior do. The second essay, Dishonesty and Competition. Evidence from a stiff competition environment, explores whether and how the possibility to behave dishonestly affects the willingness to compete and who the winner is in a competition between similarly skilled individuals. We do not find differences in competition entry between competitions in which dishonesty is possible and in which it is not. However, we find that due to the heterogeneity in propensity to behave dishonestly, around 20% of winners are not the best-performing individuals. This implies that the efficient allocation of resources cannot be ensured in a stiff competition in which behavior is unmonitored. The third essay, Tracing Risky Decision Making for Oneself and Others: The Role of Intuition and Deliberation, explores how individuals make choices under risk for themselves and on behalf of other people. The findings demonstrate that while there are no differences in preferences for taking risks when deciding for oneself and for others, individuals have greater decision error when choosing for other individuals. The differences in the decision error can be partly attributed to the differences in information processing; individuals employ more deliberative cognitive processing when deciding for themselves than when deciding for others. Conducting more information processing when deciding for others is related to the reduction in decision error. The fourth essay, The Effect of Decision Fatigue on Surgeons’ Clinical Decision Making, investigates how mental depletion, caused by a long session of decision making, affects surgeon’s decision to operate. Exploiting a natural experiment, we find that surgeons are less likely to schedule an operation for patients who have appointment late during the work shift than for patients who have appointment at the beginning of the work shift. Understanding how the quality of medical decisions depends on when the patient is seen is important for achieving both efficiency and fairness in health care, where long shifts are popular. The fifth essay, Preferences for Outcome Editing in Monetary and Social Contexts, compares whether individuals use the same rules for mental representation of monetary outcomes (e.g., purchases, expenses) as for social outcomes (e.g., having nice time with friends). Outcome editing is an operation in mental accounting that determines whether individuals prefer to first combine multiple outcomes before their evaluation (integration) or evaluate each outcome separately (segregation). I find that the majority of individuals express different preferences for outcome editing in the monetary context than in the social context. Further, while the results on the editing of monetary outcomes are consistent with theoretical predictions, no existing model can explain the editing of social outcomes.
