Boom Bust Cycle Asymmetrical Fiscal Response And The Dutch Disease

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Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451982712
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease by : Mr.Rabah Arezki

Download or read book Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the behavior of expenditure policy during boom-bust in commodity price cycles, and its implication for real exchange rate movements. To do so, we introduce a Dutch disease model with downward rigidities in government spending to revenue shock. This model leads to a decoupling between real exchange rate and commodity price movement during busts. We test our model's theoretical predictions and underlying assumptions using panel data for 32 oil-producing countries over the period 1992 to 2009. Results are threefold. First, we find that change in current spending have a stronger impact on the change in real exchange rate compared to capital spending. Second, we find that current spending is downwardly sticky, but increases in boom time, and conversely for capital spending. Third, we find limited evidence that fiscal rules have helped reduce the degree of responsiveness of current spending during booms. In contrast, we find evidence that fiscal rules are associated with a significant reduction in capital expenditure during busts while responsiveness to boosts is more muted. This raises concerns about potential adverse consequences of this asymmetry on economic performance in oil-producing countries.

Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease

Author : Rabah Arezki
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease by : Rabah Arezki

Download or read book Boom-Bust Cycle, Asymmetrical Fiscal Response and the Dutch Disease written by Rabah Arezki and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the behavior of expenditure policy during boom-bust in commodity price cycles, and its implication for real exchange rate movements. To do so, we introduce a Dutch disease model with downward rigidities in government spending to revenue shock. This model leads to a decoupling between real exchange rate and commodity price movement during busts. We test our model's theoretical predictions and underlying assumptions using panel data for 32 oil-producing countries over the period 1992 to 2009. Results are threefold. First, we find that change in current spending have a stronger impact on the change in real exchange rate compared to capital spending. Second, we find that current spending is downwardly sticky, but increases in boom time, and conversely for capital spending. Third, we find limited evidence that fiscal rules have helped reduce the degree of responsiveness of current spending during booms. In contrast, we find evidence that fiscal rules are associated with a significant reduction in capital expenditure during busts while responsiveness to boosts is more muted. This raises concerns about potential adverse consequences of this asymmetry on economic performance in oil-producing countries.

Confronting the Curse

Author : Cullen S. Hendrix
Publisher : Peterson Institute for International Economics
ISBN 13 : 0881326763
Total Pages : 221 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (813 download)

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Book Synopsis Confronting the Curse by : Cullen S. Hendrix

Download or read book Confronting the Curse written by Cullen S. Hendrix and published by Peterson Institute for International Economics. This book was released on 2014 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The political economy of natural resource wealth poses two interrelated challenges for American foreign policy, both involving governance issues in countries that are abundantly endowed with natural resources. The potentially negative impact of natural resources on development is captured in the phrase "the resource curse". The implications are the greatest for the commodity producers themselves, ranging from complications for macroeconomic management to political authoritarianism and, in the extreme, the precipitation of violent civil conflict. For US policy, the resource curse presents challenges with respect to coping with state failure and associated transborder phenomena. The issues extend to broader geopolitics. Resource abundance confers financial and political power on producers. China's emergence as a major importer and investor in extraction, willing to accommodate authoritarian producers, exacerbates the challenge, potentially undercutting international efforts to encourage greater transparency and improved management of natural resource wealth. This issue is of particular importance for US policy toward Africa

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513598406
Total Pages : 134 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015 by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-27 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has weakened after more than a decade of solid growth, although this overall outlook masks considerable variation across the region. Some countries have been negatively affected by falling prices of their main commodity exports. Oil-exporting countries, including Nigeria and Angola, have been hit hard by falling revenues and the resulting fiscal adjustments, while middle-income countries such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia are also facing unfavorable conditions. This October 2015 report discusses the fiscal and monetary policy adjustments necessary for these countries to adapt to the new environment. Chapter 2 looks at competitiveness in the region, analyzing the substantial trade integration that accompanied the recent period of high growth, and policy actions to nurture new sources of growth. Chapter 3 looks at the implications for the region of persistently high income and gender inequality and ways to reduce them.

News Shocks in Open Economies

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513590766
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis News Shocks in Open Economies by : Mr.Rabah Arezki

Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.

Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author : Mr.Montfort Mlachila
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475536356
Total Pages : 79 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Mr.Montfort Mlachila

Download or read book Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Mr.Montfort Mlachila and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-14 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses how sub-Saharan Africa’s financial sector developed in the past few decades, compared with other regions. Sub-Saharan African countries have made substantial progress in financial development over the past decade, but there is still considerable scope for further development, especially compared with other regions. Indeed, until a decade or so ago, the level of financial development in a large number of sub-Saharan African countries had actually regressed relative to the early 1980s. With the exception of the region’s middle-income countries, both financial market depth and institutional development are lower than in other developing regions. The region has led the world in innovative financial services based on mobile telephony, but there remains scope to increase financial inclusion further. The development of mobile telephone-based systems has helped to incorporate a large share of the population into the financial system, especially in East Africa. Pan-African banks have been a driver for homegrown financial development, but they also bring a number of challenges.

Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks

Author : Mr. Amine Mati
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513573357
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks by : Mr. Amine Mati

Download or read book Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks written by Mr. Amine Mati and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-11 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper focuses on identifying potential asymmetric responses of non-commodity output growth in times of positive and negative commodity terms-of-trade shocks. Using a sample of 27 oil-exporting countries and a panel VAR method, the study finds: 1) the short-and medium-run response of real non-commodity GDP growth is larger for negative shocks than positive shocks; 2) this asymmetry is more pronounced in countries with weak pre-existing fundamentals–high levels of public debt and low levels of international reserves–which also serve to amplify the volatility of the response; 3) the output response to positive shocks is stronger following a sustained period of CTOT increases, while the impact of negative shocks on output are more damaging when they occur after a period of CTOT decline.

Boom, Bust, or Prosperity? Managing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Natural Resource Wealth

Author : Charlotte J. Lundgren
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484369327
Total Pages : 85 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Boom, Bust, or Prosperity? Managing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Natural Resource Wealth by : Charlotte J. Lundgren

Download or read book Boom, Bust, or Prosperity? Managing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Natural Resource Wealth written by Charlotte J. Lundgren and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-27 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sizeable natural resource endowments and potentially large financial inflows from their extraction provide an unparalleled opportunity for economic growth and development in a growing number of sub-Saharan African countries. Empirical evidence suggests, however, that translating this resource wealth into stronger economic performance and a higher standard of living has proven challenging. Much has been written about the resource curse. This publication focuses on solutions to the challenges and outlines the main policy considerations and options in managing natural resource wealth, drawing on experience within and outside sub-Saharan Africa and referring closely to the latest analysis and policy advice in this area by the IMF, the World Bank, and leading academic research. A key feature of each chapter is a recommended reading list for those who wish additional, more in-depth material on these issues to further inform policymakers and other stakeholders on the theoretical and analytical underpinnings of the policy advice.

A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries

Author : Mr. Luc Eyraud
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries by : Mr. Luc Eyraud

Download or read book A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries written by Mr. Luc Eyraud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-11-03 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper revisits the debate on the design of fiscal rules in resource-rich countries. Its main objective is to assess alternative systems of rules against their policy objectives, while taking into account country characteristics. One of the contributions of the paper is to propose fiscal frameworks that are centered around the principle of insurance against shocks and less reliant on estimating precisely resource wealth, which tends to be highly volatile.

Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy

Author : Ms.Martine Guerguil
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513529064
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy by : Ms.Martine Guerguil

Download or read book Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy written by Ms.Martine Guerguil and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-01-22 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the impact of different types of flexible fiscal rules on the procyclicality of fiscal policy with propensity scores-matching techniques, thus mitigating traditional self-selection problems. It finds that not all fiscal rules have the same impact: the design matters. Specifically, investment-friendly rules reduce the procyclicality of both overall and investment spending. The effect appears stronger in bad times and when the rule is enacted at the national level. The introduction of escape clauses in fiscal rules does not seem to affect the cyclical stance of public spending. The inclusion of cyclical adjustment features in spending rules yields broadly similar results. The results are mixed for cyclically-adjusted budget balance rules: enacting the latter is associated with countercyclical movements in overall spending, but with procyclical changes in investment spending. Structural factors, such as past debt, the level of development, the volatility of terms of trade, natural resources endowment, government stability, and the legal enforcement and monitoring arrangements backing the rule also influence the link between fiscal rules and countercyclicality. The results are robust to a wide set of alternative specifications.

The International Handbook of Public Financial Management

Author : Richard Allen
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 113731530X
Total Pages : 1125 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (373 download)

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Book Synopsis The International Handbook of Public Financial Management by : Richard Allen

Download or read book The International Handbook of Public Financial Management written by Richard Allen and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-08-15 with total page 1125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook is a virtual encyclopedia of public financial management, written by topmost experts, many with a background in the IMF and World Bank. It provides the first comprehensive guide to the subject that has been published in more than ten years. The book is aimed at a broad audience of academics/students, government officials, development agencies and practitioners. It covers both bread-and-butter topics such as the macroeconomic and legal framework for budgeting, budget preparation and execution, procurement, accounting, reporting, audit and oversight, as well as specialist subjects such as government payroll systems, local government finance, fiscal transparency, the management of fiscal risks, sovereign wealth funds, the management of state-owned enterprises, and political economy aspects of budgeting. The book sets out numerous examples and case studies describing good practice in public financial management, and is highly relevant for use in both advanced and developing countries.

Global Economic Prospects, January 2024

Author : World Bank Group
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 146482018X
Total Pages : 420 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 by : World Bank Group

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, January 2024 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2024-02-13 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

Beyond the Resource Curse

Author : Brenda Shaffer
Publisher : University of Pennsylvania Press
ISBN 13 : 0812206177
Total Pages : 476 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (122 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond the Resource Curse by : Brenda Shaffer

Download or read book Beyond the Resource Curse written by Brenda Shaffer and published by University of Pennsylvania Press. This book was released on 2011-12-30 with total page 476 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When countries discover that they possess large deposits of oil and natural gas, the news is usually welcome. Yet, paradoxically, if they rely on their wealth of natural resources, they often set down a path of poor economic performance and governance challenges. Only a few resource-rich countries have managed to develop their economies fully and provide a better and sustainable standard of living for large segments of their populations. This phenomenon, known as the resource curse, is a core challenge for energy-exporting states. Beyond the Resource Curse focuses on this relationship between natural wealth and economic security, discussing the particular pitfalls and consistent perils facing oil- and gas-exporting states. The contributors to this volume look beyond the standard fields of research related to the resource curse. They also shed new light on the specific developmental problems of resource-rich exporting states around the globe, including Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cambodia, East Timor, Iran, Norway, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. Policy makers and academics think of energy security solely in terms of the interests of energy importers. Beyond the Resource Curse shows that the constant volatility in energy markets creates energy security challenges for exporters as well.

Direct Distribution of Resource Revenues

Author : Mr.Sanjeev Gupta
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484367200
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Direct Distribution of Resource Revenues by : Mr.Sanjeev Gupta

Download or read book Direct Distribution of Resource Revenues written by Mr.Sanjeev Gupta and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-10 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Some scholars have argued that direct distribution of natural resource revenues to the population would help resource-rich countries escape the “resource curse.” This discussion note analyzes whether this proposal is a viable policy alternative for resource-rich countries. The first priority for policymakers is to establish fiscal policy objectives to support macroeconomic stability and development objectives. In this regard, the establishment of an adequate fiscal framework that informs decisions on how much to save and invest, or how to smooth out revenue volatility, and deal with exhaustibility issues should precede any discussion of direct distribution of resource wealth to the population.

World Economic Outlook, October 2015

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151351539X
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2015 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-06 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.

Business Cycle with Bank Intermediation in Oil Economies

Author : Mr.Hamid R Tabarraei
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484377729
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycle with Bank Intermediation in Oil Economies by : Mr.Hamid R Tabarraei

Download or read book Business Cycle with Bank Intermediation in Oil Economies written by Mr.Hamid R Tabarraei and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-10-02 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The structural model in this paper proposes a micro-founded framework that incorporates an active banking sector with an oil-producing sector. The primary goal of adding a banking sector is to examine the role of an interbank market on shocks, introduce a national development fund and study its link to the banking sector and the government. The government and the national development fund directly play key roles in the propagation of the oil shock. In contrast, the banking sector and the labor market, through perfect substitution between the oil and non-oil sectors, have major indirect impacts in spreading shocks.

Fiscal Management in Resource-Rich Countries

Author : Rolando Ossowski
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464804966
Total Pages : 180 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Fiscal Management in Resource-Rich Countries by : Rolando Ossowski

Download or read book Fiscal Management in Resource-Rich Countries written by Rolando Ossowski and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 180 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The extractive industries (EI) sector occupies an outsize space in the economies of many developing countries. Policy makers, economists, and public finance professionals working in such countries are frequently confronted with issues that require an in-depth understanding of the sector, its economics, governance, and policy challenges, as well as the implications of natural resource wealth for fiscal and public financial management. The objective of the two-volume Essentials for Economists, Public Finance Professionals, and Policy Makers, published in the World Bank Studies series, is to provide a concise overview of the EI-related topics these professionals are likely to encounter. This second volume, Fiscal Management in Resource-Rich Countries, addresses critical fiscal challenges typically associated with large revenue flows from the EI sector. The volume discusses fiscal policy across four related dimensions: short-run stabilization, the management of fiscal risks and vulnerabilities, the promotion of long-term sustainability, and the importance of good public financial management and public investment management systems. The volume subsequently examines several institutional mechanisms used to aid fiscal management, including medium-term expenditure frameworks, resource funds, fiscal rules, and fiscal councils. The volume also discusses the earmarking of revenue, resource revenue projections as applied to the government budget, and fiscal transparency, and outlines several fiscal indicators used to assess the fiscal stance of resource-rich countries. The authors hope that economists, public finance professionals, and policy makers working in resource-rich countries—including decision makers in ministries of finance, international organizations, and other relevant entities—will find the volume useful to their understanding and analysis of fiscal management in resource-rich countries.