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Are There Rational Bubbles In Foreign Exchange Markets
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Book Synopsis Bursting the Bubble: Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market by : David F. DeRosa
Download or read book Bursting the Bubble: Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market written by David F. DeRosa and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2021-04-02 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The presence of speculative bubbles in capital markets (an important area of interest in financial history) is widely accepted across many circles. Talk of them is pervasive in the media and especially in the popular financial press. Bubbles are thought to be found primarily in the stock market, which is our main interest, although bubbles are said to occur in other markets. Bubbles go hand in hand with the notion that markets can be irrational. The academic community has a great interest in bubbles, and it has produced scholarly literature that is voluminous. For some economists, doing bubble research is like joining the vanguard of a Kuhnian paradigm shift in economic thinking. Not so fast. If bubbles did exist, they would pose a serious challenge to neoclassical finance. Bubbles would contradict the ideas that markets are rational or work in an informationally efficient manner. That’s what makes the topic of bubbles interesting. This book reviews and evaluates the academic literature as well as some popular investment books on the possible existence of speculative bubbles in the stock market. The main question is whether there is convincing empirical evidence that bubbles exist. A second question is whether the theoretical concepts that have been advanced for bubbles make them plausible. The reader will discover that I am skeptical that bubbles actually exist. But I do not think I or anyone else will ever be able to conclusively prove that there has never been a bubble. From studying the literature and from reading history, I find that many famous purported bubbles reflect inaccurate history or mistakes in analysis or simply cannot be shown to have existed. In other instances, bubbles might have existed. But in each of those cases, there are credible rational explanations. And good evidence exists for the idea that even if bubbles do exist, they are not of great importance to understanding the stock market.
Book Synopsis Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes, Second Edition by : Harold L. Vogel
Download or read book Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes, Second Edition written by Harold L. Vogel and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-16 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
Book Synopsis The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2009-05-15 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The foreign exchange market is the largest, fastest-growing financial market in the world. Yet conventional macroeconomic approaches do not explain why people trade foreign exchange. At the same time, they fail to explain the short-run determinants of the exchange rate. These nine innovative essays use a microstructure approach to analyze the workings of the foreign exchange market, with special emphasis on institutional aspects and the actual behavior of market participants. They examine the volume of transactions, heterogeneity of traders, the time of day and location of trading, the bid-ask spread, and the high level of exchange rate volatility that has puzzled many observers. They also consider the structure of the market, including such issues as nontransparency, asymmetric information, liquidity trading, the use of automated brokers, the relationship between spot and derivative markets, and the importance of systemic risk in the market. This timely volume will be essential reading for anyone interested in the economics of international finance.
Book Synopsis Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes by : Harold L. Vogel
Download or read book Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes written by Harold L. Vogel and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-12-17 with total page 619 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and are defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
Book Synopsis The Foreign Exchange Market by : Richard T. Baillie
Download or read book The Foreign Exchange Market written by Richard T. Baillie and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1989 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The flotation of exchange rates in the early 1970s saw a significant increase in the importance of foreign exchange markets and in the interest shown in them. Apart from the consequent institutional changes, this period also witnessed a revolution in macroeconomic analysis and finance theory based on the concept of rational expectations. This book provides an integrated approach to recent developments in the understanding of foreign exchange markets. It begins by charting the institutional background and looks at the recent history of movements in some of the major exchange rates. The theoretical sections focus on the economic and finance theory of the asset market approach, the macroeconomic models developed from this approach, and on interest rate parity theory. The empirical chapters draw on the authors' own research from a high quality set of exchange rate and interest rate data. The statistical properties of exchange rates are analysed; the relationship between spot and forward rates is examined; and the modelling and impact of new information on the forward and spot relationship is considered. The final chapter is devoted to the estimation and testing of exchange rate models.
Book Synopsis Profit-making Speculation In Foreign Exchange Markets by : Patchara Surajaras
Download or read book Profit-making Speculation In Foreign Exchange Markets written by Patchara Surajaras and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-09-05 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technical analysis is not supposed consistently to beat financial markets. In this book, however, Professors Surajaras and Sweeney seek to establish that carefully chosen rules can produce substantial and consistent measured profits over time. The authors also call into question the traditional academic wisdom that markets in general are efficient.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.
Book Synopsis Empirical Techniques in Finance by : Ramaprasad Bhar
Download or read book Empirical Techniques in Finance written by Ramaprasad Bhar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-28 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes traditional elements of financial econometrics but is not yet another volume in econometrics. Discusses statistical and probability techniques commonly used in quantitative finance. The reader will be able to explore more complex structures without getting inundated with the underlying mathematics.
Book Synopsis Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles: Selected Essays by : Anastasios G Malliaris
Download or read book Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles: Selected Essays written by Anastasios G Malliaris and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2005-10-03 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The compendium of papers in this volume focuses on aspects of economic uncertainty, financial instabilities and asset bubbles.Economic uncertainty is modeled in continuous time using the mathematical techniques of stochastic calculus. A detailed treatment of important topics is provided, including the existence and uniqueness of asymptotic economic growth, the modeling of inflation and interest rates, the decomposition of inflation and its volatility, and the extension of the quantity theory of money to allow for randomness.The reader is also introduced to the methods of chaotic dynamics, and this methodology is applied to asset pricing, the European equity markets, and the multi-fractality in foreign currency markets.Since the techniques of stochastic calculus and chaotic dynamics do not readily accommodate the presence of stochastic bubbles, several papers discuss in depth the presence of financial bubbles in asset prices, and econometric work is performed to link such bubbles to monetary policy.Finally, since bubbles often burst rather than deflate slowly, the last section of the book studies the crash of October 1987 as well as other crashes of national equity markets due to the Persian gulf crisis.
Book Synopsis The Theory And Empirics Of Exchange Rates by : Imad A Moosa
Download or read book The Theory And Empirics Of Exchange Rates written by Imad A Moosa and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2009-07-15 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exchange rate economics is an important field of investigation for academics, professionals and policy-makers. This book provides a comprehensive survey of the theory of and empirical evidence on the determination and effects of exchange rates. The exposition utilizes both diagrammatic and mathematical representations of the underlying models. The book is a comprehensive reference for those engaged in this field of research.
Download or read book The Tobin Tax written by Mahbub ul Haq and published by New York : Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This guide to coping with financial volatility should be of interest to academics and economists with interest in finance and international development.
Book Synopsis Great Bubbles, vol 3 by : Ross B Emmett
Download or read book Great Bubbles, vol 3 written by Ross B Emmett and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2024-08-01 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Periods of euphoria followed by sudden crashes are a familiar phenomenon in economics. Such events have become known as "bubbles". These volumes bring together writings on such phenomena - with works centering upon some of the more colourful examples.
Book Synopsis Asset Price Bubbles by : William Curt Hunter
Download or read book Asset Price Bubbles written by William Curt Hunter and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 650 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.
Book Synopsis The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates by : Richard K. Lyons
Download or read book The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates written by Richard K. Lyons and published by MIT Press (MA). This book was released on 2001 with total page 360 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explaining the puzzling behavior of exchange rates using models from microstructure finance and data from electronic trading.
Book Synopsis On Exchange Rates by : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Download or read book On Exchange Rates written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1993 with total page 468 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These seventeen essays provide an accessible and thorough reference for understanding the role of exchange rates in the international monetary system since 1973, when the rates were allowed to float. The essays analyze such issues as exchange rate movements, exchange risk premia, investor expectations of exchange rates and behavior of exchange rates in different systems. Frankel's sound empirical treatment of exchange rate questions shows that it is possible to produce work that is interesting from a purely intellectual viewpoint while contributing to practical knowledge of the real world of international economics and finance.The essays have been organized in a way that provides an introduction to the field of empirical international finance. Part I documents the steady reduction in barriers to international capital movement and leads logically to part II, which explains how exchange rates are determined. Both monetary and portfolio-based models are surveyed in part II, providing a clear transition to the topic of part III; the possible existence of an exchange risk premium. Part IV applies the tools discussed in earlier sections to explore various policy questions related to exchange rate expectations such as whether foreign exchange intervention matters and whether the European monetary system had become credible by 1991. Each part begins with a detailed introduction explaining not only the central issues of that section but also suggesting connections with other essays in the book.Jeffrey A. Frankel is Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.
Download or read book Complex Economics written by Alan Kirman and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-09-13 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The economic crisis is also a crisis for economic theory. Most analyses of the evolution of the crisis invoke three themes, contagion, networks and trust, yet none of these play a major role in standard macroeconomic models. What is needed is a theory in which these aspects are central. The direct interaction between individuals, firms and banks does not simply produce imperfections in the functioning of the economy but is the very basis of the functioning of a modern economy. This book suggests a way of analysing the economy which takes this point of view. The economy should be considered as a complex adaptive system in which the agents constantly react to, influence and are influenced by, the other individuals in the economy. In such systems which are familiar from statistical physics and biology for example, the behaviour of the aggregate cannot be deduced from the behaviour of the average, or "representative" individual. Just as the organised activity of an ants’ nest cannot be understood from the behaviour of a "representative ant" so macroeconomic phenomena should not be assimilated to those associated with the "representative agent". This book provides examples where this can clearly be seen. The examples range from Schelling’s model of segregation, to contributions to public goods, the evolution of buyer seller relations in fish markets, to financial models based on the foraging behaviour of ants. The message of the book is that coordination rather than efficiency is the central problem in economics. How do the myriads of individual choices and decisions come to be coordinated? How does the economy or a market, "self organise" and how does this sometimes result in major upheavals, or to use the phrase from physics, "phase transitions"? The sort of system described in this book is not in equilibrium in the standard sense, it is constantly changing and moving from state to state and its very structure is always being modified. The economy is not a ship sailing on a well-defined trajectory which occasionally gets knocked off course. It is more like the slime described in the book "emergence", constantly reorganising itself so as to slide collectively in directions which are neither understood nor necessarily desired by its components.
