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Bursting The Bubble Rationality In A Seemingly Irrational Market
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Book Synopsis Bursting the Bubble: Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market by : David F. DeRosa
Download or read book Bursting the Bubble: Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market written by David F. DeRosa and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2021-04-02 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The presence of speculative bubbles in capital markets (an important area of interest in financial history) is widely accepted across many circles. Talk of them is pervasive in the media and especially in the popular financial press. Bubbles are thought to be found primarily in the stock market, which is our main interest, although bubbles are said to occur in other markets. Bubbles go hand in hand with the notion that markets can be irrational. The academic community has a great interest in bubbles, and it has produced scholarly literature that is voluminous. For some economists, doing bubble research is like joining the vanguard of a Kuhnian paradigm shift in economic thinking. Not so fast. If bubbles did exist, they would pose a serious challenge to neoclassical finance. Bubbles would contradict the ideas that markets are rational or work in an informationally efficient manner. That’s what makes the topic of bubbles interesting. This book reviews and evaluates the academic literature as well as some popular investment books on the possible existence of speculative bubbles in the stock market. The main question is whether there is convincing empirical evidence that bubbles exist. A second question is whether the theoretical concepts that have been advanced for bubbles make them plausible. The reader will discover that I am skeptical that bubbles actually exist. But I do not think I or anyone else will ever be able to conclusively prove that there has never been a bubble. From studying the literature and from reading history, I find that many famous purported bubbles reflect inaccurate history or mistakes in analysis or simply cannot be shown to have existed. In other instances, bubbles might have existed. But in each of those cases, there are credible rational explanations. And good evidence exists for the idea that even if bubbles do exist, they are not of great importance to understanding the stock market.
Book Synopsis Bursting the Bubble: Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market by : David DeRosa
Download or read book Bursting the Bubble: Rationality in a Seemingly Irrational Market written by David DeRosa and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Irrational Exuberance by : Robert J. Shiller
Download or read book Irrational Exuberance written by Robert J. Shiller and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-01-25 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why the irrational exuberance of investors hasn't disappeared since the financial crisis In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008–9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets—and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity—and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.
Download or read book Boom and Bust written by William Quinn and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-08-06 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why do stock and housing markets sometimes experience amazing booms followed by massive busts and why is this happening more and more frequently? In order to answer these questions, William Quinn and John D. Turner take us on a riveting ride through the history of financial bubbles, visiting, among other places, Paris and London in 1720, Latin America in the 1820s, Melbourne in the 1880s, New York in the 1920s, Tokyo in the 1980s, Silicon Valley in the 1990s and Shanghai in the 2000s. As they do so, they help us understand why bubbles happen, and why some have catastrophic economic, social and political consequences whilst others have actually benefited society. They reveal that bubbles start when investors and speculators react to new technology or political initiatives, showing that our ability to predict future bubbles will ultimately come down to being able to predict these sparks.
Book Synopsis The FinTech Evolution: Technology Push, Market Pull Dynamics, and Inertia by : Tatja Karkkainen
Download or read book The FinTech Evolution: Technology Push, Market Pull Dynamics, and Inertia written by Tatja Karkkainen and published by Tatja Karkkainen. This book was released on 2023-01-17 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work serves as a base for foundational knowledge of the taxonomy, vocabulary and concepts in the interdisciplinary field of financial technology (FinTech). It is specifically written for innovation management in financial services. For this end, it is integral to inspect the evolution of FinTech through technology push, market pull dynamics, and inertia because they play a crucial role in shaping the direction and rate of innovation. Technology push relates to the development and introduction of new technologies that drive innovation in the financial industry. Market pull dynamics, on the other hand, relate to the demand for new financial products and services that arises from changing consumer needs and preferences. The interaction between market pull and technology push can be described as a feedback loop, which can be then affected by inertia. Inertia can be described as resistance to change that is often present in consumers, which can hinder the creation of new technologies and innovations. In this sense, the consumer inertia can affect the relationship between technology push and market demand making it difficult for new financial technology applications to gain traction if they are not seen as offering significant improvements. By understanding the interplay between these three factors, it is possible to gain insight into the current state and future direction of the FinTech industry, and from there Financial Services Industry.
Book Synopsis An Introduction to Economic Dynamics by : Srinivas Raghavendra
Download or read book An Introduction to Economic Dynamics written by Srinivas Raghavendra and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-03-31 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Introduction to Economic Dynamics provides a framework for students to appreciate and understand the basic intuition behind economic models and to experiment with those models using simulation techniques in MATLAB®. This book goes beyond the often-limited scope of other texts on economic models, which have largely focused on elucidating static equilibrium models. Comparative static analysis inhibits students from asking how the equilibrium position is achieved from an initial out-of-equilibrium position and limits their understanding of the dynamics that underlie such analysis. In this textbook, readers are introduced to ten well-established macroeconomic models – including Keynesian multiplier models, Samuelson’s multiplier and Solow’s growth model – and guided through the dynamical systems behind each model. Every chapter begins with an overview of the economic problem which the model is designed to help solve followed by an explanation of the mathematics of the model. Solutions are provided using simulation and visualisation techniques in MATLAB®, which are interwoven organically with the analysis and are introduced in a step-by-step fashion to guide the reader along the way. Appendices provide an introduction to MATLAB® along with all the necessary codes. The book is ideally suited for courses in economic dynamics, macroeconomic modelling and computational economics, as well as for students of finance, mathematics and engineering who are interested in economic models.
Download or read book Adaptive Markets written by Andrew W. Lo and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-05-14 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new, evolutionary explanation of markets and investor behavior Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can’t agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe. The debate is one of the biggest in economics, and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hangs on the answer. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo transforms the debate with a powerful new framework in which rationality and irrationality coexist—the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, Adaptive Markets shows that the theory of market efficiency is incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo’s new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought—a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation. An ambitious new answer to fundamental questions about economics and investing, Adaptive Markets is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand how markets really work.
Book Synopsis The Map and the Territory by : Alan Greenspan
Download or read book The Map and the Territory written by Alan Greenspan and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we’re conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we’re steering by out-of-date maps, when we’re not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control. The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author’s own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can’t.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming. No map is the territory, but Greenspan’s approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.
Book Synopsis The Stock Market: Bubbles, Volatility, and Chaos by : G.P. Dwyer
Download or read book The Stock Market: Bubbles, Volatility, and Chaos written by G.P. Dwyer and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. and R. W. Hafer The articles and commentaries included in this volume were presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' thirteenth annual economic policy conference, held on October 21-22, 1988. The conference focused on the behavior of asset market prices, a topic of increasing interest to both the popular press and to academic journals as the bull market of the 1980s continued. The events that transpired during October, 1987, both in the United States and abroad, provide an informative setting to test alter native theories. In assembling the papers presented during this conference, we asked the authors to explore the issue of asset pricing and financial market behavior from several vantages. Was the crash evidence of the bursting of a speculative bubble? Do we know enough about the work ings of asset markets to hazard an intelligent guess why they dropped so dramatically in such a brief time? Do we know enough to propose regulatory changes that will prevent any such occurrence in the future, or do we want to even if we can? We think that the articles and commentaries contained in this volume provide significant insight to inform and to answer such questions. The article by Behzad Diba surveys existing theoretical and empirical research on rational bubbles in asset prices.
Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Book Synopsis Puzzles of Inflation, Money, and Debt: Applying the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level by : Thomas S. Coleman
Download or read book Puzzles of Inflation, Money, and Debt: Applying the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level written by Thomas S. Coleman and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2021-11-29 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) provides an update and revision of monetary theory to address puzzles raised by the failure of both the new Keynesian theory (commonly used by central bankers) and neoclassical monetarism (in particular, the quantity theory of money as interpreted by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz)—puzzles such as the low inflation that followed the sustained expansionary monetary policies post-2008. We aim to summarize and explain the FTPL as developed by Eric Leeper, John Cochrane, and others. The FTPL builds on neoclassical monetarism by observing that government liabilities—bonds, notes, bills, and currency—derive their value from the assets that back these liabilities. These assets are chiefly the present value of future tax revenues, minus government spending other than that part of spending used to service the liabilities themselves. This net “profit” of the government is called the primary surplus. This primary surplus can be expressed in real terms (a quantity of goods and services, rather than a money amount). The total real value of the bonds is thus the total real value of the assets backing the bonds: the present value of all future real primary surpluses (which we shorten to PVFS, present value of future surpluses). In a very important sense, the FTPL harkens back to commodity-based theories of money, except now the “commodity” is the real value of future surpluses earned by the government. We can then solve for the price level. It is simply the nominal value of the bonds (the face value or number of bonds issued) divided by the real value of the bonds (the PVFS). If the nominal value of the bonds is held constant and the underlying asset (PVFS) becomes less valuable, prices go up. If the PVFS becomes more valuable, prices go down. We thus calculate the value of “money” (including government liabilities of all maturities) the way one would calculate the value of any security: through discounted cash flow analysis. Note that this approach is consistent with the QTM because, if money is defined in the traditional way as currency and demand deposits and we now hold the PVFS (the backing of the money) constant, then the price level is proportional to the amount of money in circulation. The FTPL is a more complete theory, however, because (1) it incorporates all government liabilities, not traditional money alone, and (2) because it is forward-looking and dynamic rather than considering only conditions in the present.
Book Synopsis Irrational Exuberance by : Robert J. Shiller
Download or read book Irrational Exuberance written by Robert J. Shiller and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2005-03-14 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This first edition of this book was a broad study, drawing on a wide range of published research and historical evidence, of the enormous stock market boom that started around 1982 and picked up incredible speed after 1995. Although it took as its specific starting point this ongoing boom, it placed it in the context of stock market booms generally, and it also made concrete suggestions regarding policy changes that should be initiated in response to this and other such booms. The book argued that the boom represents a speculative bubble, not grounded in sensible economic fundamentals. Part one of the book considered structural factors behind the boom. A list of twelve precipitating factors that appear to be its ultimate causes was given. Amplification mechanisms, naturally-occurring Ponzi processes, that enlarge the effects of these precipitating factors, were described. Part Two discussed cultural factors, the effects of the news media, and of "new era" economic thinking. Part Three discussed psychological factors, psychological anchors for the market and herd behavior. Part Four discussed attempts to rationalize exuberance: efficient markets theory and theories that investors are learning. Part Five presented policy options and actions that should be taken. The second edition, 2005, added an analysis of the real estate bubble as similar to the stock market bubble that preceded it, and warned that "Significant further rises in these markets could lead, eventually, to even more significant declines. The bad outcome could be that eventual declines would result in a substantial increase in the rate of personal bankruptcies, which could lead to a secondary string of bankruptcies of financial institutions as well. Another long-run consequence could be a decline in consumer and business confidence, and another, possibly worldwide, recession." Thus, the second edition of this book was among the first to warn of the global financial crisis that began with the subprime mortgage debacle in 2007.
Book Synopsis Asset Price Bubbles by : William Curt Hunter
Download or read book Asset Price Bubbles written by William Curt Hunter and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 650 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.
Book Synopsis Stock Market Rules by : Michael Sheimo
Download or read book Stock Market Rules written by Michael Sheimo and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2004-12-22 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unwritten rules of Wall Street--what works, what doesn't, and how investors can tell the difference. Investing is governed by unofficial rules, passed to investors through brokers, the financial press, and even fellow investors For more than a decade, in two previous editions, Stock Market Rules has helped investors separate the most valuable of these maxims from the meaningless and even potentially harmful. But with recent market turbulence and scandals blindsiding millions of investors, the time has come for a new, updated edition. Stock Market Rules, Third Edition, is that book, an in-depth, up-to-date examination of the 50 axioms that will most help investors gain the edge in today's technologically supercharged markets.
Book Synopsis Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes by : Harold L. Vogel
Download or read book Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes written by Harold L. Vogel and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-12-17 with total page 619 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and are defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
Book Synopsis 23 Things They Don't Tell You about Capitalism by : Ha-Joon Chang
Download or read book 23 Things They Don't Tell You about Capitalism written by Ha-Joon Chang and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2011-01-02 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: INTERNATIONAL BESTSELLER "For anyone who wants to understand capitalism not as economists or politicians have pictured it but as it actually operates, this book will be invaluable."-Observer (UK) If you've wondered how we did not see the economic collapse coming, Ha-Joon Chang knows the answer: We didn't ask what they didn't tell us about capitalism. This is a lighthearted book with a serious purpose: to question the assumptions behind the dogma and sheer hype that the dominant school of neoliberal economists-the apostles of the freemarket-have spun since the Age of Reagan. Chang, the author of the international bestseller Bad Samaritans, is one of the world's most respected economists, a voice of sanity-and wit-in the tradition of John Kenneth Galbraith and Joseph Stiglitz. 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism equips readers with an understanding of how global capitalism works-and doesn't. In his final chapter, "How to Rebuild the World," Chang offers a vision of how we can shape capitalism to humane ends, instead of becoming slaves of the market.
Book Synopsis Capital as Power by : Jonathan Nitzan
Download or read book Capital as Power written by Jonathan Nitzan and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-06-02 with total page 853 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional theories of capitalism are mired in a deep crisis: after centuries of debate, they are still unable to tell us what capital is. Liberals and Marxists both think of capital as an ‘economic’ entity that they count in universal units of ‘utils’ or ‘abstract labour’, respectively. But these units are totally fictitious. Nobody has ever been able to observe or measure them, and for a good reason: they don’t exist. Since liberalism and Marxism depend on these non-existing units, their theories hang in suspension. They cannot explain the process that matters most – the accumulation of capital. This book offers a radical alternative. According to the authors, capital is not a narrow economic entity, but a symbolic quantification of power. It has little to do with utility or abstract labour, and it extends far beyond machines and production lines. Capital, the authors claim, represents the organized power of dominant capital groups to reshape – or creorder – their society. Written in simple language, accessible to lay readers and experts alike, the book develops a novel political economy. It takes the reader through the history, assumptions and limitations of mainstream economics and its associated theories of politics. It examines the evolution of Marxist thinking on accumulation and the state. And it articulates an innovative theory of ‘capital as power’ and a new history of the ‘capitalist mode of power’.
