Approaches To Macrofinancial Surveillance In Article Iv Reports

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Approaches to Macrofinancial Surveillance in Article IV Reports

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498347037
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Approaches to Macrofinancial Surveillance in Article IV Reports by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book Approaches to Macrofinancial Surveillance in Article IV Reports written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-28 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fund has made good progress over the past two years in integrating macrofinancial analysis into Article IV surveillance for a wide range of members. Building on past work to enhance financial sector analysis, Fund staff has sought to develop a consistent and forward-looking view on how the financial sector affects each member’s economic outlook with the aim of strengthening staff’s capacity to provide advice on macro-critical questions. The focus has been on developing a fuller understanding of macrofinancial linkages, and applying this analysis to inform policy advice. Staff has sought to articulate the role of the financial sector in the macroeconomic baseline, and to integrate the financial sector into the risk assessment, taking into account both the impact of macro shocks on the financial sector as well as the effect of financial shocks on macroeconomic stability. Strengthening the analytical foundations of this work has helped staff provide advice in all policy areas, including financial sector policies. Staff has tailored macrofinancial analysis to the circumstances of a diverse set of economies. Area departments have taken the lead in selecting 66 economies for enhanced macrofinancial coverage and in identifying topics, drawing on targeted support from functional departments. The choice of coverage has included legacies from the global financial crisis—such as deleveraging and stretched balance sheets in advanced economies and some emerging markets—and more recent challenges such as commodity price shocks, especially in low income countries, and the risks of housing booms. The financial sector’s contribution to growth and inclusion has become an important question in countries across all income groups. Staff sees benefits in mainstreaming this approach across the membership, while continuing to address analytical gaps and adapting to new challenges. The work of the past two years has underscored the criticality of macrofinancial analysis for a diverse range of members, and laid the basis for progressively mainstreaming macrofinancial surveillance across the membership. Building on this progress, staff sees scope for the Fund to deepen its understanding of the macroeconomic effects of financial shocks, to better adapt microprudential and macroprudential policy advice with an assessment of macro-critical risks including systemic risk, and to deepen the analysis of outward spillovers. Staff will also need to continue to adapt the focus of analysis and tools, and seek relevant data, as economic challenges evolve.

Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484361490
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Download or read book Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-23 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses and disseminates experiences and lessons from low-income countries (LICs) in Sub-Saharan Africa that were selected by the Africa Department in 2015-16 as pilots for enhanced analysis of macro-financial linkages in Article IV staff reports. The paper focuses on the common characteristics across the pilot countries and highlights the tools used in the analysis, the challenges encountered, and the solutions deployed in overcoming them.

License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports

Author : Jelle Barkema
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513573675
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports by : Jelle Barkema

Download or read book License to Spill: How Do We Discuss Spillovers in Article IV Staff Reports written by Jelle Barkema and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-07 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper dives into the Fund’s historical coverage of cross-border spillovers in its surveillance. We use a state-of-the-art deep learning model to analyze the discussion of spillovers in all IMF Article IV staff reports between 2010 and 2019. We find that overall, while the discussion of spillovers decreased over time, it was pronounced in the staff reports of some systemically important economies and during periods of global spillover events. Spillover discussions were more prominent in staff reports covering advanced and emerging market economies, possibly reflecting their role as sources of global spillovers. The coverage of spillovers was higher in the context of the real, financial, and external sectors. Also, countries with larger economies, higher trade and capital account openess and lower inflation are more likely to discuss spillovers in their Article IV staff reports.

Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance

Author : Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484397010
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance by : Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad

Download or read book Growth at Risk: Concept and Application in IMF Country Surveillance written by Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-02-21 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.

Global Waves of Debt

Author : M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464815453
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose

Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

2018 Interim Surveillance Review

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498308260
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis 2018 Interim Surveillance Review by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book 2018 Interim Surveillance Review written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-17 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Fund surveillance has become better adapted to the global conjuncture, and more integrated and risk-based. The recommendations of the 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) focused on helping members navigate the post crisis challenges. Bilateral and multilateral surveillance discussions are underpinned by a shared and deeper understanding of global interconnectedness and linkages across sectors. There has also been progress in core areas such as risk work, fiscal and external sector analysis, and in integration of macrofinancial analysis and of macrostructural policy work that aims to reinvigorate productivity and growth, and promote inclusiveness. The ongoing efforts to align surveillance inputs with risks is also enhancing the Fund’s ability to support members more effectively. Continuing efforts along several dimensions will be needed to further advance surveillance ahead of the 2019 Comprehensive Surveillance Review (CSR). These include planned refinements to external sector assessments, sustaining progress on macrofinancial surveillance, addressing data gaps, and incorporating lessons from pilot efforts including on macrofinancial, macrostructural and emerging issues. Efforts to meet surveillance challenges in low income countries also will continue. Outward spillover work, particularly from the largest economies, should receive greater prominence in Article IV reports. Further work is also needed to make policy advice more persuasive by better leveraging cross-country policy experiences and integrating technical assistance. Lessons from implementing the TSR recommendations should help ensure further progress. A major investment has been made to deepen the analysis that supports surveillance. With a dramatic increase in the range of analytical approaches and tools available, selectivity and tailoring are ever more crucial. The Fund’s internal processes have proven flexible enough to deliver on key areas, but will require continual adaptation to keep pace with evolving challenges. Strategies for human resources, capacity development, knowledge management, and data and statistics should further reinforce surveillance priorities. Looking ahead, the 2019 CSR will further anchor the Fund’s surveillance in a world of rapid technological change. The increased pace of technological progress could have far-reaching implications for the global economy, finance, and policy making, possibly fundamentally altering the surveillance landscape. Coupled with rising inequality and possible adoption of inward-looking policies, the impact on the membership could be profound. Engagement with members, stakeholders, and experts will be central in determining how the 2019 CSR will address these challenges."

High Level Status Report to the IEO Evaluation of Fund's Recurring Issues

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498347045
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis High Level Status Report to the IEO Evaluation of Fund's Recurring Issues by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book High Level Status Report to the IEO Evaluation of Fund's Recurring Issues written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-27 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a high-level report on progress in addressing recurring issues identified by the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO). The Board endorsed the proposal in the Chairman’s Summing Up for the Independent Evaluation Office Report on Recurring Issues from a Decade of Evaluation – Lessons for the IMF (BUFF/14/58, 6/11/14) that staff prepare a separate high-level report on the status of initiatives that address the recurring issues identified by the IEO, noting that the first staff report could be prepared within two years, followed by similar reports every five years thereafter. The September 2015 Management Implementation Plan set out the actions management would take to follow-up on the Board-endorsed recommendation. The IEO’s 2014 evaluation of Recurring Issues from a Decade of Evaluation: Lessons for the IMF identified five recurring issues: a) Executive Board guidance and oversight; b) Organizational silos; c) Attention to risks and uncertainty; d) Country and institutional context; and e) Evenhandedness. This high-level report provides a broad account of actions taken to address these recurring issues since the publication of the 2014 IEO report; it is not intended as an exhaustive account of initiatives undertaken. Takeaways. The report concludes that the Fund has made progress in addressing the recurring issues identified by the IEO, and acknowledges the need for taking actions on an ongoing basis to achieve the related objectives. The discussion of the Management Implementation Plan (MIP) left open the question of whether subsequent reports should be prepared, perhaps every five years. The Evaluation Committee concluded that the forthcoming external evaluation of the IEO could look at the monitoring mechanisms more holistically, to provide further input into considering whether or not to continue the preparation every five years of this high-level report.

Towards Macroprudential Stress Testing

Author : Mr.Ivo Krznar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484307100
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Towards Macroprudential Stress Testing by : Mr.Ivo Krznar

Download or read book Towards Macroprudential Stress Testing written by Mr.Ivo Krznar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-06-30 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macro-feedback effects have been identified as a key missing element for more effective macro-prudential stress testing. To fill this gap, this paper develops a framework that facilitates the analysis of both the direct effects of macroeconomic shocks on the solvency of individual banks and feedback effects that allow for the amplification and propagation of shocks that can result from bank deleveraging and credit crunches. The framework ensures consistency in the key relationships between macroeconomic and financial variables, and banks’ balance sheets. This is accomplished by embedding a standard stress-testing framework based on individual banks’ data in a semi-structural macroeconomic model. The framework has numerous applications that can strengthen stress testing and macro financial analysis. Moreover, it provides an avenue for many extensions that address the challenges of incorporating other second-round effects important for comprehensive systemic risk analysis, such as interactions between solvency, liquidity and contagion risks. To this end, the paper presents some preliminary simulations of feedback effects arising from the link between the liquidity and solvency risk.

The Gambia

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484350340
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis The Gambia by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Download or read book The Gambia written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-04 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper assesses the macrofinancial linkages in The Gambia. Significant macrofinancial linkages persist in The Gambia, first and foremost between the public sector and the banks. Banks are highly exposed to the government through large holdings of short-term government debt, which is a legacy of the large financing needs of the previous administration. In addition, large claims have built up between government and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on the one hand, and banks and the corporate sector including SOEs on the other. There has been persistent financial distress within the SOE cluster. Weak SOE performance has also led to arrears both to central government and within the SOE cluster.

Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author : Mindaugas Leika
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151353291X
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Mindaugas Leika

Download or read book Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Mindaugas Leika and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-11 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper finds that supervisory stress tests are conducted in more than half of sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in western and southern Africa, and that the number of individual stress tests has grown exponentially since the early 2010s. By contrast, few central banks publish assessments of macro-financial linkages; the focus leans more toward discussing trends and weaknesses within the financial sector than on outside risks that may negatively affect its performance.

Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 129 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-12 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data provision by member countries is a key input into the IMF’s surveillance activities. The 2024 Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes took place against the backdrop of profound shifts in the global economy, highlighting the important need for adequate macroeconomic and financial data to inform analysis and policymaking. This Review achieved a substantial, but manageable, update to the overall envelope of data that members are required to provide to the Fund in the areas of public sector, foreign exchange intervention, and macrofinancial indicators. Addressing these data gaps will reduce blind spots and support even-handedness in Fund surveillance. The Review also introduced a more structured and transparent assessment of data adequacy for surveillance. This strengthened framework will facilitate policy dialogue with the authorities on data issues and improve prioritization of capacity development efforts. Finally, the Review confirmed the long-standing practice of not applying the remedial framework when members do not provide certain data categories that the Fund considers outdated.

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2017

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484306147
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2017 by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2017 written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-05 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the past financial year, the IMF’s 189 member countries faced a number of pressing challenges. IMF work on these challenges - slower trade, declining productivity, gender inequality, inclusive growth, and debt management - is a central focus of this 2017 Annual Report.

Kingdom of Lesotho

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484344952
Total Pages : 13 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Kingdom of Lesotho by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Download or read book Kingdom of Lesotho written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-05 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper provides further background on the macrofinancial sector analysis that informed Lesotho’s 2017 Article IV consultation. Lesotho’s financial sector is small, concentrated, and lacks financial inclusion, although mobile banking services and financial cooperatives offer some encouraging potential. Lesotho’s most important vulnerabilities are exposure to developments in South Africa and dependence on revenues from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). Shocks to SACU revenues can become a source of systemic risk by affecting the fiscal position and the balance of payments. The financial system will be affected by both channels, with substantial implications if the shock is permanent. This paper focuses on two potential consequences of a severe SACU revenue shock for the financial system: A decline in reserves that may threaten the sustainability of the hard currency peg with the South African rand, and the impact of a forced fiscal consolidation on household income and the quality of credit to households, affecting both bank and nonbank lenders. It turns out that financial shallowness and lack of inclusion may be a defining feature of the formal banking system; thereby raising questions about potential trade-offs between inclusiveness and financial stability.

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021

Author : International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513568817
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 by : International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 written by International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-04 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations

Download 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations PDF Online Free

Author : International Monetary
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513582712
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations by : International Monetary

Download or read book 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy Advice in Article IV Consultations written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses progress made in deepening and integrating systemic risk analysis and macroprudential policy advice in Article IV consultations following up on the findings of the IEO evaluation. The assessment informs the Comprehensive Surveillance Review and the FSAP Review in their recommendations to strengthen these areas in Article IV consultations. The findings point to notable improvements made since the launch of the macrofinancial mainstreaming initiative, particularly in staff reports for advanced economies and in covering bank and credit-related risks.

Burkina Faso

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484394348
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Burkina Faso by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Download or read book Burkina Faso written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-22 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper examines Burkina Faso’s banking system and traces its macro-financial linkages. The analysis builds upon the macro-financial linkages work conducted in the context of the Article IV consultation with the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Overall, the banking system remains profitable and well-capitalized, but its ability to support the real economy needs to be improved if the authorities are to reach their development goals. Moreover, financial inclusion remains low, and despite recent progress on basic access to the financial system, significant barriers to accessing credit remain; particularly for women, rural inhabitants, and the agricultural sector. The available data indicates that the banking system remains well-capitalized and profitable. Systemic risks remain broadly contained, and new banks have come into operation, but there is significant scope to improve the banking system’s ability to support the real economy and financial inclusion. Deteriorating security conditions could undermine banks’ ability to expand into underserved remote areas.

Canada

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498321119
Total Pages : 85 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Canada by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Download or read book Canada written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-24 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Financial System Stability Assessment paper discusses that Canada has enjoyed favorable macroeconomic outcomes over the past decades, and its vibrant financial system continues to grow robustly. However, macrofinancial vulnerabilities—notably, elevated household debt and housing market imbalances—remain substantial, posing financial stability concerns. Various parts of the financial system are directly exposed to the housing market and/or linked through housing finance. The financial system would be able to manage severe macrofinancial shocks. Major deposit-taking institutions would remain resilient, but mortgage insurers would need additional capital in a severe adverse scenario. Housing finance is broadly resilient, notwithstanding some weaknesses in the small non-prime mortgage lending segment. Although banks’ overall capital buffers are adequate, additional required capital for mortgage exposures, along with measures to increase risk-based differentiation in mortgage pricing, would be desirable. This would help ensure adequate through-the cycle buffers, improve mortgage risk-pricing, and limit procyclical effects induced by housing market corrections.