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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Approaches to Long Range Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jon Scott Armstrong
Publisher : Wiley-Interscience
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 734 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Long-range Forecasting written by Jon Scott Armstrong and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 1985 with total page 734 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Getting started. Forecasting methods. Evaluation. Comparing methods. Commencement.
Author : George J. McCormack
Publisher : Astrology Classics
ISBN 13 : 193330345X
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (333 download)
Download or read book Text-Book of Long Range Weather Forecasting written by George J. McCormack and published by Astrology Classics. This book was released on 2012-04 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: George J. McCormack, (1887-1974) had a life-long interest in astrology and the weather. Inspired by the astrometeorological work of A.J. Pearce (1840-1923), McCormack meticulously tracked and recorded the weather, from before World War I, until his death more than half a century later. In 1947, after 23 years of research, he published his "key" to long-range weather forecasting, being this book. Confident of his ability, in the spring of 1947 McCormack predicted one of the most severe winters in decades, specifically forecasting the infamous snows of December 26, 1947. He was nationally famous overnight. The techniques he used are in this amazing book. With study, they will become yours. The weather bureau predicts the weather, day by day, by careful observation of current conditions. You can learn to predict based on underlying celestial factors, which can be known months, even years, in advance. In 1963, before the US Weather Bureau, and again in 1964, before the American Meteorological Society, McCormack presented his life's work. Both groups ignored him, to our great loss. Use this book, make a better choice.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Approaches to Long Range Forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Jorge A. Rueda Benavides
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780309673440
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (734 download)
Download or read book Improving Mid-term, Intermediate, and Long-range Cost Forecasting written by Jorge A. Rueda Benavides and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Because transportation investment programs have extended time horizons, state departments of transportation (DOTs) must forecast costs well into the future. This poses a serious challenge: the longer the time horizon, the more uncertainty and risk that forecasted costs will vary from actual, future costs. The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Research Report 953: Improving Mid-Term, Intermediate, and Long-Range Cost Forecasting: Guidebook for State Transportation Agencies presents a cost forecasting method for use by state transportation agencies that better accounts for cost variability and economic volatility over time. Supplemental information to the report includes a cost forecasting toolkit, a guidebook presentation, and videos.
Author : J. E. Murray
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)
Download or read book An Approach to Long-range Forecasting written by J. E. Murray and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note describes a method for making long-range (10-20 years) forecasts of Soviet strategic weapon developments. As the end product of a heuristic reasoning process, the methodology has a requirements orientation, based on clues from Soviet military writing, Soviet technology, and Soviet acquisition practices. Progressing through a sequence of four central inquiries, the methodology examines Soviet mission priorities, weapon deficiencies, and weapon options to forecast Soviet weapon choices. These four inquiries are supported by five background inquiries into Soviet military concepts, Soviet perceptions of threat, current Soviet weapon capabilities, Soviet advanced weapon technology, and available Soviet resources. After describing the overall methodology, this note discusses each of the nine inquiries and presents the author's viewpoint on their boundaries and emphasis.
Author : Stéphane Vannitsem
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 012812248X
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)
Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Long-range Forecasting and Planning written by and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : J.S. Armstrong
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780792374015
Total Pages : 880 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (74 download)
Download or read book Principles of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001 with total page 880 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Author : James Bennett
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 157 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (5 download)
Download or read book Approaches to Long Range Forecasting - A Symposium Held at Alamogordo New Mexico 29-30 April 1969 written by James Bennett and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 157 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Table of Contents: Simulating Alternative Economic Futures; Forecasting Military Requirements: A Critical Viewpoint of the Industry's Approach; Election Night Forecasting; Forecasting Highway Demand; Technological Forecasting in an R & D Laboratory; Producing the First Navy Technological Forecast; Forecasting International Relations: A Proposed Investigation of Three-Mode Factor Analysis; Forecasting Solar Events.
Author : Rob J Hyndman
Publisher : OTexts
ISBN 13 : 0987507117
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (875 download)
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400888816
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-29 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Author : United States. Air Force Dept
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Long-range Forecasting and Planning written by United States. Air Force Dept and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : United States. Air Force Department
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (3 download)
Download or read book Long-range Forecasting and Planning, a Symposium Held at the U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorade, 16-17 August 1966 written by United States. Air Force Department and published by . This book was released on 1967 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : United States. Naval Weather Service Command
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 456 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book U.S. Naval Weather Service Numerical Environmental Products Manual written by United States. Naval Weather Service Command and published by . This book was released on 1975 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : United States. Air Force Department
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Long Range Forecasting Methodology, a Symposium Held at Alamogordo, New Mexico, 11-12 October 1967 written by United States. Air Force Department and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
