Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps With An Application To Sovereign Debt Crises

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Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises

Author : Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451852916
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises by : Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau

Download or read book Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises written by Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.

Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps

Author : Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps by : Jorge A. Chan-Lau

Download or read book Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps written by Jorge A. Chan-Lau and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.

Credit Risk

Author : Niklas Wagner
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 9781584889953
Total Pages : 600 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (899 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Risk by : Niklas Wagner

Download or read book Credit Risk written by Niklas Wagner and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2008-05-28 with total page 600 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Featuring contributions from leading international academics and practitioners, Credit Risk: Models, Derivatives, and Management illustrates how a risk management system can be implemented through an understanding of portfolio credit risks, a set of suitable models, and the derivation of reliable empirical results. Divided into six sections, the book • Explores the rapidly developing area of credit derivative products, including iTraxx Futures, iTraxx Default Swaptions, and constant proportion debt obligations • Addresses the relationships between the DJ iTraxx credit default swap (CDS) index and the stock market as well as CDS spreads and macroeconomic factors • Investigates systematic and firm-specific default risk factors, compares CDS pricing results from the CreditGrades industry benchmark to a trinomial tree approach, and applies the Hull–White intensity-based model to the pricing of names from the CDX index • Analyzes aggregate default and recovery rates on corporate bond defaults over a twenty-year period, the responses of hazard rates to changes in a set of economic variables, low-default portfolios, and tests on the accuracy of the Basel II framework • Describes benchmark models of implied credit correlation risk, copula-based default dependence concepts, the fit of various copula models, and a common factor model of systematic credit risk • Studies the pricing of options on single-name CDSs, the pricing of credit derivatives, collateralized debt obligation (CDO) price data, the pricing of CDO tranches, applications of Gaussian and Student’s t copula functions, and the pricing of CDOs Using mathematical models and methodologies, this volume provides the essential knowledge to properly manage credit risk and make sound financial decisions.

Credit Default Swaps

Author : Marti Subrahmanyam
Publisher : Now Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9781601989000
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Default Swaps by : Marti Subrahmanyam

Download or read book Credit Default Swaps written by Marti Subrahmanyam and published by Now Publishers. This book was released on 2014-12-19 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit Default Swaps: A Survey is the most comprehensive review of all major research domains involving credit default swaps (CDS). CDS have been growing in importance in the global financial markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly since the credit crisis of 2007-2009. The authors review the extant literature on CDS that has accumulated over the past two decades and divide the survey into seven topics after providing a broad overview in the introduction. The second section traces the historical development of CDS markets and provides an introduction to CDS contract definitions and conventions. The third section discusses the pricing of CDS, from the perspective of no-arbitrage principles, structural, and reduced-form credit risk models. It also summarizes the literature on the determinants of CDS spreads, with a focus on the role of fundamental credit risk factors, liquidity and counterparty risk. The fourth section discusses how the development of the CDS market has affected the characteristics of the bond and equity markets, with an emphasis on market efficiency, price discovery, information flow, and liquidity. Attention is also paid to the CDS-bond basis, the wedge between the pricing of the CDS and its reference bond, and the mispricing between the CDS and the equity market. The fifth section examines the effect of CDS trading on firms' credit and bankruptcy risk, and how it affects corporate financial policy, including bond issuance, capital structure, liquidity management, and corporate governance. The sixth section analyzes how CDS impact the economic incentives of financial intermediaries. The seventh section reviews the growing literature on sovereign CDS and highlights the major differences between the sovereign and corporate CDS markets. The eighth section discusses CDS indices, especially the role of synthetic CDS index products backed by residential mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis. The authors close with our suggestions for promising future research directions on CDS contracts and markets.

Credit Default Swaps

Author : Christopher L. Culp
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319930761
Total Pages : 331 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Default Swaps by : Christopher L. Culp

Download or read book Credit Default Swaps written by Christopher L. Culp and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-07-12 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, unique in its composition, reviews the academic empirical literature on how CDSs actually work in practice, including during distressed times of market crises. It also discusses the mechanics of single-name and index CDSs, the theoretical costs and benefits of CDSs, as well as comprehensively summarizes the empirical evidence on important aspects of these instruments of risk transfer. Full-time academics, researchers at financial institutions, and students will benefit from the dispassionate and comprehensive summary of the academic literature; they can read this book instead of identifying, collecting, and reading the hundreds of academic articles on the important subject of credit risk transfer using derivatives and benefit from the synthesis of the literature provided.

The Pricing of Credit Default Swaps During Distress

Author : Jochen R. Andritzky
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis The Pricing of Credit Default Swaps During Distress by : Jochen R. Andritzky

Download or read book The Pricing of Credit Default Swaps During Distress written by Jochen R. Andritzky and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-11 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credit default swaps (CDS) provide the buyer with insurance against certain types of credit events by entitling him to exchange any of the bonds permitted as deliverable against their par value. Unlike bonds, whose risk spreads are assumed to be the product of default risk and loss rate, CDS are par instruments, and their spreads reflect the partial recovery of the delivered bond's face value. This paper addresses the implications of the difference between bond and CDS spreads and shows the extent to which the recovery assumption matters for determining CDS spreads. A no-arbitrage argument is applied to extract recovery rates from CDS and bond markets, using data from Brazil's distress in 2002-03. Results are related to the observation that preemptive restructurings are now more common than straight defaults in sovereign bond markets and that this leads to a decoupling of CDS and bond spreads.

Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with an Application to Sovereign Debt Crises

Author : Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with an Application to Sovereign Debt Crises by : Jorge A. Chan-Lau

Download or read book Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with an Application to Sovereign Debt Crises written by Jorge A. Chan-Lau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.

Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk

Author : Mr.Emre Alper
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463933770
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (639 download)

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Book Synopsis Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk by : Mr.Emre Alper

Download or read book Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk written by Mr.Emre Alper and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the pricing of sovereign credit risk over the period 2008-2010 for selected advanced economies by examining two widely-used indicators: sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and relative asset swap (RAS) spreads. Cointegration analysis suggests the existence of an imperfect market arbitrage relationship between the cash (RAS) and the derivatives (CDS) markets, with price discovery taking place in the latter. Likewise, panel regressions aimed at uncovering the fundamental drivers of the two indicators show that the CDS market, although less liquid, has provided a better signal for sovereign credit risk during the period of the recent financial crisis.

The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions

Author : Jiri Podpiera
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455201367
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions by : Jiri Podpiera

Download or read book The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions written by Jiri Podpiera and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data estimator show that LCFIs’ business models, earnings potential, and economic uncertainty (represented by market expectations about the future risks of a particular LCFI and market views on prospects for economic growth) are among the most significant determinants of credit risk. The findings of the paper are broadly consistent with those of the literature on bank failure, where the determinants of the latter include the entire CAMELS structure - that is, Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. By establishing a link between the financial and market fundamentals of LCFIs and their CDS spreads, the paper offers a potential tool for fundamentals-based vulnerability and early warning system for LCFIs.

Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010

Author : Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475505531
Total Pages : 128 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 by : Mr.Udaibir S. Das

Download or read book Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010 written by Mr.Udaibir S. Das and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.

Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises

Author : Michael Frenkel
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3662099500
Total Pages : 263 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises by : Michael Frenkel

Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises written by Michael Frenkel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-14 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign risk and financial crises play a key role in current international economic developments, particularly in the case of economic downturns. As the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s revealed once again, financial crises are the rule rather than the exception in capitalist economies. The event also revealed that international public debt agreements are contingent claims. In a world of increasing economic interdependencies, the issues of financial crises and country defaults are of critical importance. This volume goes to the heart of the academic discussion on sovereign risk and financial crises by centering on quantitative-empirical aspects, evaluating prominent approaches, and by proposing new methods. Part I of the volume identifies key factors and processes that are central in analyzing sovereign risk while Part II focuses on the determinants and effects of financial crises.

Rating the Rating Agencies

Author : Mr.Amadou N. R. Sy
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 145185451X
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Rating the Rating Agencies by : Mr.Amadou N. R. Sy

Download or read book Rating the Rating Agencies written by Mr.Amadou N. R. Sy and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-06-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipate currency crises. When debt crises are defined as sovereign distress-when spreads are higher than 1,000 basis points-we find that countries experience reduced capital market access and high interest rates on their external debt for typically more than two quarters. We also find that lagged ratings and ratings changes, including negative outlooks and credit watches, anticipate such debt crises.

Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets

Author : Mr.Andrea Pescatori
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451846444
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets by : Mr.Andrea Pescatori

Download or read book Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets written by Mr.Andrea Pescatori and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-03-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Crises on external sovereign debt are typically defined as defaults. Such a definition accurately captures debt-servicing difficulties in the 1980s, a period of numerous defaults on bank loans. However, defining defaults as debt crises is problematic for the 1990s, when sovereign bond markets emerged. In contrast to the 1980s, the 1990s are characterized by significant foreign debt-servicing difficulties but fewer sovereign defaults. In order to capture this evolution of debt markets, we define debt crises as events occurring when either a country defaults or its bond spreads are above a critical threshold. We find that our definition outperforms the default-based definition in capturing debt-servicing difficulties and, consequently, in fitting the post-1994 period. In particular, liquidity indicators are significant in explaining our definition of debt crises, while they do not play any role in explaining defaults after 1994.

The Credit Market Handbook

Author : H. Gifford Fong
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0471787191
Total Pages : 254 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (717 download)

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Book Synopsis The Credit Market Handbook by : H. Gifford Fong

Download or read book The Credit Market Handbook written by H. Gifford Fong and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-02-02 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In The Credit Market Handbook, financial expert and Editor H. Gifford Fong has assembled a group of prominent professionals and academics familiar with the credit arena. In each chapter, a different expert analyzes a different issue related to today's dynamic credit market, including portfolio credit risk, valuation models, and the importance of modeling credit default. In bringing together these noted authors and their work, Fong provides you with a rich framework of research in the area of credit analysis. Some of the topics discussed within this comprehensive guide include: * Estimating default probabilities implicit in equity prices * Structural versus reduced form models: a new information-based perspective * Valuing high-yield bonds * Predictions of default probabilities in structural models of debt * And much more Filled with in-depth insight and expert advice, this invaluable resource offers you the critical information you need to succeed within today's credit market.

IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 2

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589066502
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 2 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 2 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-09-26 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vol. 54, No. 2 includes three notable contributions from the Seventh Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC) hosted by the IMF in November 2006. Its lead paper, by Olivier Blanchard of Harvard University, is the 2006 Mundell-Fleming Lecture (delivered at the ARC), which analyzes current-account deficits in the advanced economies. Other papers in this issue look at the relationship between international financial integration and the real economy. Other papers discuss whether (or not): i) the next capital account crisis can be predicted; ii) accepted definitions of debt crises are adequate; iii) the Doha Round of trade talks (if they are ever successfully completed) will lead to preference erosion; and finally iv) there is room for political opportunism in countries deciding between money-based or exchange-rate-based stabilization programs.

Latin American Economic Outlook 2009

Author : OECD
Publisher : OECD Publishing
ISBN 13 : 9264051686
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Latin American Economic Outlook 2009 by : OECD

Download or read book Latin American Economic Outlook 2009 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2008-10-28 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The 2009 edition of the Latin American Economic Outlook shows that governments in the region could do much more to exploit the ability of fiscal policy to boost economic growth and combat poverty and inequality.

Financial reforms, stabilization and development in 21st-century Turkey

Author : Haluk Haksal
Publisher : Vernon Press
ISBN 13 : 1622736532
Total Pages : 486 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (227 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial reforms, stabilization and development in 21st-century Turkey by : Haluk Haksal

Download or read book Financial reforms, stabilization and development in 21st-century Turkey written by Haluk Haksal and published by Vernon Press. This book was released on 2019-03-28 with total page 486 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The central argument of this book is that while central bank independence can contribute to stabilization, inflation-targeting monetary policy is quite powerless in promoting economic development. The basic message is simple: Policy makers should not strive to achieve price stability at any cost, as stability in product markets does not necessarily translate into economic development. The recent experience of Turkey is illuminating and other developing countries, in particular those using inflation targeting monetary policy framework, can draw useful lessons from this experience. Early chapters summarize the deregulation process from 1980 to 2001. The Turkish Central Bank is placed at the center of the analysis as monetary policies have a significant impact both on stability and development. Although the 1994 and 2001 financial crises have been extensively studied elsewhere, they are nevertheless summarized to underscore the importance of central bank independence. Later chapters investigate the impact of an independent central bank on stabilization and development from 2001 onwards. Upon visiting the Turkish Central Bank's website, readers are greeted with the following statement: "The primary objective of the Bank is to achieve and maintain price stability." By the end of this book the reader should be able to assess the relative merits of a monetary policy that focuses on price stability, versus an alternative where price stability is accompanied by other objectives targeting development, for instance, monitoring also unemployment rates, which would undermine its independence to some degree. The study aims to provide a perspective on the need for such an alternative in line also with the vision of some international agencies on development, such as the UNCTAD and the ILO. This is the first book-length study examining the financial reforms Turkey undertook in its path towards EU accession. This unique work will be of interest to economists and other experts in financial history, (de)regulation, institutional economics and economic development, as well as a broad range of scholars interested in the dramatic transformation of Turkey's economy and society in the 21st century.