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Using Meteorology Probability Forecasts In Operational Hydrology
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Book Synopsis Using Meteorology Probability Forecasts in Operational Hydrology by : Thomas E. Croley
Download or read book Using Meteorology Probability Forecasts in Operational Hydrology written by Thomas E. Croley and published by Amer Society of Civil Engineers. This book was released on 2000-01-01 with total page 206 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Download or read book Hydrometeorology written by Kevin Sene and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-12-12 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes recent developments in hydrometeorological forecasting techniques for a range of timescales, from short term to seasonal and longer terms. It conveniently brings together both meteorological and hydrological aspects in a single volume.
Book Synopsis Intercomparison of Conceptual Models Used in Operational Hydrological Forecasting by : World Meteorological Organization
Download or read book Intercomparison of Conceptual Models Used in Operational Hydrological Forecasting written by World Meteorological Organization and published by World Meteorological Organization. This book was released on 1975 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Assessment of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Operations and Services by : National Research Council
Download or read book Assessment of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Operations and Services written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1996-12-03 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Floods are by far the most devastating of all weather-related hazards in the United States. The National Weather Service (NWS) is charged by Congress to provide river and flood forecasts and warnings to the public to protect life and property and to promote the nation's economic and environmental well-being (such as through support for water resources management). As part of a modernization of its technologies and organizational structure, the NWS is undertaking a thorough updating of its hydrologic products and services and the activities that produce them. The National Weather Service Modernization Committee of the National Research Council undertook a comprehensive assessment of the NWS' plans and progress for the modernization of hydrologic and hydrometeorological operations and services. The committee's conclusions and recommendations and their related analysis and rationale are presented in this report.
Book Synopsis Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts by : Stéphane Vannitsem
Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner
Book Synopsis Long-range Water-supply Forecasting by : M. Dyhr-Nielsen
Download or read book Long-range Water-supply Forecasting written by M. Dyhr-Nielsen and published by World Meteorological Organization. This book was released on 1982 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comparison of the three methods, including data and computational requirements and accuracy, is given in section 3.
Book Synopsis Flood Forecasting by : Thomas E Adams
Download or read book Flood Forecasting written by Thomas E Adams and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2016-04-04 with total page 478 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective describes flood forecast systems and operations as they currently exist at national and regional centers around the globe, focusing on the technical aspects of flood forecast systems. This book includes the details of data flow, what data is used, quality control, the hydrologic and hydraulic models used, and the unique problems of each country or system, such as glacial dam failures, ice jams, sparse data, and ephemeral streams and rivers. Each chapter describes the system, including details about its strengths and weaknesses, and covers lessons learned. This helpful resource facilitates sharing knowledge that will lead to improvements of existing systems and provides a valuable reference to those wishing to develop new forecast systems by drawing on best practices. Covers global systems allowing readers to see a worldwide perspective with different approaches used by existing flood forecast systems Provides historical coverage allowing readers to understand why forecast systems have developed as they have and to see how specific systems have dealt with common problems encountered Presents a vision of what appears to be the future of hydrologic forecasting and difficulties facing hydrologic forecasting Provides a helpful resource to facilitate improvements to existing systems based on a best practices approach
Book Synopsis Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting by : Qingyun Duan
Download or read book Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting written by Qingyun Duan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-06 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hydrometeorological prediction involves the forecasting of the state and variation of hydrometeorological elements -- including precipitation, temperature, humidity, soil moisture, river discharge, groundwater, etc.-- at different space and time scales. Such forecasts form an important scientific basis for informing public of natural hazards such as cyclones, heat waves, frosts, droughts and floods. Traditionally, and at most currently operational centers, hydrometeorological forecasts are deterministic, “single-valued” outlooks: i.e., the weather and hydrological models provide a single best guess of the magnitude and timing of the impending events. These forecasts suffer the obvious drawback of lacking uncertainty information that would help decision-makers assess the risks of forecast use. Recently, hydrometeorological ensemble forecast approaches have begun to be developed and used by operational collection of hydrometeorological services. In contrast to deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts are a multiple forecasts of the same events. The ensemble forecasts are generated by perturbing uncertain factors such as model forcings, initial conditions, and/or model physics. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they not only offer an estimate of the most probable future state of the hydrometeorological system, but also quantify the predictive uncertainty of a catastrophic hydrometeorological event occurring. The Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), initiated in 2004, has signaled a new era of collaboration toward the development of hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts. By bringing meteorologists, hydrologists and hydrometeorological forecast users together, HEPEX aims to improve operational hydrometeorological forecast approaches to a standard that can be used with confidence by emergencies and water resources managers. HEPEX advocates a hydrometeorological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) framework that consists of several basic building blocks. These components include:(a) an approach (typically statistical) for addressing uncertainty in meteorological inputs and generating statistically consistent space/time meteorological inputs for hydrological applications; (b) a land data assimilation approach for leveraging observation to reduce uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions of the hydrological system; (c) approaches that address uncertainty in model parameters (also called ‘calibration’); (d) a hydrologic model or other approach for converting meteorological inputs into hydrological outputs; and finally (e) approaches for characterizing hydrological model output uncertainty. Also integral to HEPS is a verification system that can be used to evaluate the performance of all of its components. HEPS frameworks are being increasingly adopted by operational hydrometeorological agencies around the world to support risk management related to flash flooding, river and coastal flooding, drought, and water management. Real benefits of ensemble forecasts have been demonstrated in water emergence management decision making, optimization of reservoir operation, and other applications.
Download or read book Hydrometeorology written by Kevin Sene and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-12-09 with total page 427 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This second edition explores some of the latest techniques used to provide forecasts for a wide range of water-related applications in areas such as floods, droughts, water resources and environmental impacts. The practical uses can range from decisions on whether to issue a flood warning through to providing longer-term advice such as on when to plant and harvest crops or how to operate reservoirs for water supply and hydropower schemes. It provides an introduction to the topic for practitioners and researchers and useful background for courses in areas such as civil engineering, water resources, meteorology and hydrology. As in the first edition, the first section considers topics such as monitoring and forecasting techniques, demand forecasting and how forecasts are interpreted when issuing warnings or advice. Separate chapters are now included for meteorological and catchment monitoring techniques allowing a more in-depth discussion of topics such as weather radar and water quality observations. The chapters on meteorological and hydrological forecasting now include a greater emphasis on rainfall forecasting and ensemble and probabilistic techniques. Regarding the interpretation of forecasts, an updated chapter discusses topics such as approaches to issuing warnings and the use of decision support systems and risk-based techniques. Given the rapid pace of development in flash flood fore casting techniques, flash floods and slower responding riverine floods are now considered in separate chapters. This includes more detail on forecasting floods in large river basins and on methods for providing early warnings of debris flows, surface water flooding and ice jam and dam break floods. Later chapters now include more information on developing areas such as environmental modelling and seasonal flow forecasting. As before examples of operational systems are provided throughout and the extensive sets of references which were a feature of the first edition have been revised and updated. Key themes • floods • droughts • meteorological observations • catchment monitoring • meteorological forecasts • hydrological forecasts • demand forecasts • reservoirs • water resources • water quality • decision support • data assimilation • probabilistic forecasts Kevin Sene is a civil engineer and researcher with wide experience in flood risk management, water resources and hydrometeorology. He has previously published books on flood warning, forecasting and emergency response and flash floods (Springer 2008, 2013).
Book Synopsis Operational Weather Forecasting by : Peter Michael Inness
Download or read book Operational Weather Forecasting written by Peter Michael Inness and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-end process of forecast production, and bringing together a description of all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; with plenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues and examples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole process of forecast production, from understanding the nature of the forecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which to initialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (or models) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time and then interpreting the model output and putting it into a form which is relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is the generation of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales, often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecasting having been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations in practices between different forecasting centres. Thus the authors have tried to be as generic as possible when describing aspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despite the reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part to play in producing weather forecasts and this is described, along with the issue of forecast verification – how forecast centres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use this book to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-day applications of weather forecast production. In addition, professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional users of weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member of the RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series a valuable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecasting process Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the book discusses the practical choices that operational forecasting centres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use and when they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studies to contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemble methods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of ‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satellite imagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experience in both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather and Climate’
Book Synopsis On the Use of Probability Statements in Weather Forecasts by : Charles F. Roberts
Download or read book On the Use of Probability Statements in Weather Forecasts written by Charles F. Roberts and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Modernized End-to-end Forecast Process for Quantitative Precipitation Information by :
Download or read book The Modernized End-to-end Forecast Process for Quantitative Precipitation Information written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Numerical Weather Prediction Activities Report by : United States. National Weather Service
Download or read book Numerical Weather Prediction Activities Report written by United States. National Weather Service and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Operational Hydrology Report written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the First Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference by :
Download or read book Proceedings of the First Federal Interagency Hydrologic Modeling Conference written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Precipitation Estimation and Forecasting by : C. G. Collier
Download or read book Precipitation Estimation and Forecasting written by C. G. Collier and published by Secretariat to World Meteorological Organization. This book was released on 2000 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
