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Unemployment Persistence Following A Shift In Regime
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Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Download or read book Regime Shift written by T. J. Pempel and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pempel contrasts the political economy of Japan during two decades: the 1960s ̧when the nation e¡perienced conservative political dominance and high growth ̧and the early 1990s ̧when the "bubble economy" collapsed and electoral politics changed. The different dynamics of the two periods indicate a regime shift in which the present political economy deviates profoundly from earlier forms. This shift has involved a transformation in socioeconomic alliances ̧political and economic institutions ̧and public policy profile ̧rendering Japanese politics far less predictable than in the past. Pempel weighs the Japanese case against comparative data from the USA ̧Great Britain ̧Sweden and Italy ̧to show how unusual Japan's political economy had been in the 1960s. The te¡t suggests that Japan's present troubles are deeply rooted in the economy's earlier success.
Book Synopsis The Great Inflation by : Michael D. Bordo
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Book Synopsis IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 2 by : Mr.Robert P. Flood
Download or read book IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 2 written by Mr.Robert P. Flood and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-07-11 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores sources of the output collapse in Russia during transition. A modified growth-accounting framework is developed that takes into account changes in factor utilization that are typical of the transition process. The results indicate that declines in factor inputs and productivity were both important determinants of the output fall. The paper analyzes the behavior of real commodity prices over the 1862–1999 progress. It also examines whether average stocks of health and education are converging across countries, and calculates the speed of their convergence using data from 84 countries for 1970–90.
Book Synopsis The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling by : Gunnar Bårdsen
Download or read book The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling written by Gunnar Bårdsen and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2005-04-14 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconometric models, in many ways the flagships of the economist's profession in the 1960s, came under increasing attack from both theoretical economist and practitioners in the late 1970s. Critics referred to their lack of microeconomic theoretical foundations, ad hoc models of expectations, lack of identification, neglect of dynamics and non-stationarity, and poor forecasting properties. By the start of the 1990s, the status of macroeconometric models had declined markedly, and had fallen completely out of, and with, academic economics. Nevertheless, unlike the dinosaurs to which they often have been likened, macroeconometric models have never completely disappeared from the scene. This book describes how and why the discipline of macroeconometric modelling continues to play a role for economic policymaking by adapting to changing demands, in response, for instance, to new policy regimes like inflation targeting. Model builders have adopted new insights from economic theory and taken advantage of the methodological and conceptual advances within time series econometrics over the last twenty years. The modelling of wages and prices takes a central part in the book as the authors interpret and evaluate the last forty years of international research experience in the light of the Norwegian 'main course' model of inflation in a small open economy. The preferred model is a dynamic model of incomplete competition, which is evaluated against alternatives as diverse as the Phillips curve, Nickell-Layard wage curves, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, and monetary inflation models on data from the Euro area, the UK, and Norway. The wage price core model is built into a small econometric model for Norway to analyse the transmission mechanism and to evaluate monetary policy rules. The final chapter explores the main sources of forecast failure likely to occur in a practical modelling situation, using the large-scale nodel RIMINI and the inflation models of earlier chapters as case studies.
Book Synopsis Inequality After the Transition by : Ekrem Karakoç
Download or read book Inequality After the Transition written by Ekrem Karakoç and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-10-03 with total page 309 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After the Transition is an all-encompassing examination of the origins, increase, and persistence of inequality in new democracies. It challenges the conventional thinking found in much of the democratization-inequality literature, and offers a new theory. It speaks simultaneously to literature of democratization, party systems, social policy, and inequality to explain why democracies are not able to fulfill their promise to the disadvantaged and why they cannot achieve income equality. It investigates social policy programs such as pensions, unemployment benefits, and other social transfers in Poland and the Czech Republic in Post-Communist Europe, and Turkey and Spain in Southern Europe. The volume traces the origins and development of social policy, from the formation of nation-states to the present, and considers how different political regimes, whether totalitarian; post-totalitarian; or authoritarian, designed welfare policies to prioritize civil servants and the working classes in formal sectors at the expense of the majority poor. It then demonstrates how these legacies perpetuate and widen disparities in access to welfare policies, and thus income inequality in countries where low mobilization by the poor and unstable party systems prevail. This study employs interviews with Polish, Czech, Turkish, and Spanish union leaders; bureaucrats; and business people while also conducting an original survey in Turkey to dissect the linkage between organized groups and parties. Employing a multi-method approach, two paired case studies on these countries also demystify why and how new populist parties have successfully appealed to voters and affected the trajectory of social policy, party systems and inequality. Comparative Politics is a series for researchers, teachers, and students of political science that deals with contemporary government and politics. Global in scope, books in the series are characterised by a stress on comparative analysis and strong methodological rigour. The series is published in association with the European Consortium for Political Research. For more information visit: www.ecprnet.eu. The series is edited by Emilie van Haute, Professor of Political Science, Université libre de Bruxelles; Ferdinand Müller-Rommel, Director of the Center for the Study of Democracy, Leuphana University; and Susan Scarrow, John and Rebecca Moores Professor of Political Science, University of Houston.
Book Synopsis Monetary Regimes in Transition by : Michael D. Bordo
Download or read book Monetary Regimes in Transition written by Michael D. Bordo and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-11-02 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important contribution to comparative economic history examines different countries' experiences with different monetary regimes. The contributors lay particular emphasis on how the regimes fared when placed under stress such as wars and or other changes in the economic environment. Covering the experience of ten countries over the period 1700SH1990, the book employs the latest techniques of economic analysis in order to understand why particular monetary regimes and policies succeeded or failed.
Book Synopsis Explaining Unemployment in Spain by : Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks
Download or read book Explaining Unemployment in Spain written by Mr.Jeffrey R. Franks and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-09-01 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spain has the most serious and persistent unemployment problem in Europe, with an unemployment rate that reached 24.6 percent in early 1994. This paper explores the characteristics of this unemployment problem, its causes, and provides a brief discussion of recent labor market reform measures and their likely Impact. A demographic shift in recent years has produced a large rise in female labor force participation and a decrease in agricultural jobs to which the economy has been unable to adjust. The effects of generous unemployment benefits and the large underground economy may explain 6–12 percentage points of the resulting unemployment, but the remainder must be explained by failures and rigidities in the labor market. The paper presents econometric evidence that unemployment displays hysteresis, and that wages are not responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. This evidence supports the claim that insider-outsider factors and rigidities in the legal structure of the labor market are responsible for much of the high unemployment rate. Recent reforms have improved the functioning of the labor market, but they are unlikely to be sufficient to reduce unemployment to single digit rates without further action.
Book Synopsis The Case for a Job Guarantee by : Pavlina R. Tcherneva
Download or read book The Case for a Job Guarantee written by Pavlina R. Tcherneva and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-06-05 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the most enduring ideas in economics is that unemployment is both unavoidable and necessary for the smooth functioning of the economy. This assumption has provided cover for the devastating social and economic costs of job insecurity. It is also false. In this book, leading expert Pavlina R. Tcherneva challenges us to imagine a world where the phantom of unemployment is banished and anyone who seeks decent, living-wage work can find it - guaranteed. This is the aim of the Job Guarantee proposal: to provide a voluntary employment opportunity in public service to anyone who needs it. Tcherneva enumerates the many advantages of the Job Guarantee over the status quo and proposes a blueprint for its implementation within the wider context of the need for a Green New Deal. This compact primer is the ultimate guide to the benefits of one of the most transformative public policies being discussed today. It is essential reading for all citizens and activists who are passionate about social justice and building a fairer economy.
Book Synopsis After the Arab Uprisings by : Shamiran Mako
Download or read book After the Arab Uprisings written by Shamiran Mako and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-07-22 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A holistic and cross-disciplinary approach to understanding why a regional democratic transition did not occur after the Arab Spring protests, this accessible study highlights the salience of regime type, civil society, women's mobilizations, and external intervention across seven countries for undergraduate and postgraduate students and scholars.
Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council
Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.
Book Synopsis On Monetary Integration and Macroeconomic Policy by : Mattias Erlandsson
Download or read book On Monetary Integration and Macroeconomic Policy written by Mattias Erlandsson and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Policy after the Crash by : Richard Barwell
Download or read book Macroeconomic Policy after the Crash written by Richard Barwell and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-16 with total page 477 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reviews the key policy debates during the post-crash era, describing the issues that policymakers grappled with, the decisions that they took and the details of the policy instruments that were created. Focusing specifically on issues in monetary and fiscal policy, chapters demonstrate that very little that was done during this period conformed to the simple textbook treatment of macroeconomic policy: central banks cutting policy rates or finance ministers cutting the rate of income tax. The author guides the reader through the revolution in the conduct of macroeconomic policy in an engaging and approachable manner, and illuminates the key innovations in the toolkit and themes in the debate over past years with great detail, from negative rates to quantitative easing, and from austerity versus financial repression, restructuring and default to productivity puzzles and deflation.
Book Synopsis Regime Transition in Central Asia by : Dagikhudo Dagiev
Download or read book Regime Transition in Central Asia written by Dagikhudo Dagiev and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-10-30 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presenting a study of regime transition, political transformation, and the challenges that faced the post-Communist republics of Central Asia on independence, this book focuses on the process of transition in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and the obstacles that these newly-independent states are facing in the post-Communist period. The book analyses how in the early stages of their independence, the governments of Central Asia declared that they would build democratic states, but that in practice, they demonstrated that they are more inclined towards authoritarianism. With the declaration of independence, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, like many other former Soviet national republics, were faced with the issues of nationalism, ethnicity, identity and territorial delimitation. This book looks at how the discourse of patrimonial nationalism in post-Communist Tajikistan and Uzbekistan has been the elites’ strategy to address all these issues: to maintain the stateness of their respective countries; to preserve the unity of their nation; to fill the ideological void of post-Communism; to prevent the rise of Islam; and to legitimize their authoritarian practice. Arguing against the claim that the Central Asian states have undergone divergent paths of transition, the book discusses how they are in fact all authoritarian, although exhibiting different degrees of authoritarianism. This book provides a useful contribution to studies on Central Asian Politics and International Relations.
Book Synopsis Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence by : Mr.Rudolfs Bems
Download or read book Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence written by Mr.Rudolfs Bems and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an empirical assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct a novel index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies starting in 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks for countries with flexible exchange rates. We find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.
Book Synopsis Sustainability of the Theories Developed by Mathematical Finance and Mathematical Economics with Applications by : Wing-Keung Wong
Download or read book Sustainability of the Theories Developed by Mathematical Finance and Mathematical Economics with Applications written by Wing-Keung Wong and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-12-15 with total page 382 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The topics studied in this Special Issue include a wide range of areas in finance, economics, tourism, management, marketing, and education. The topics in finance include stock market, volatility and excess returns, REIT, warrant and options, herding behavior and trading strategy, supply finance, and corporate finance. The topics in economics including economic growth, income poverty, and political economics.
Book Synopsis After Austerity by : Peter Taylor-Gooby
Download or read book After Austerity written by Peter Taylor-Gooby and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-08-04 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: European welfare states are undergoing profound change, driven by globalization, technical changes, and population ageing. More immediately, the aftermath of the Great Recession and unprecedented levels of immigration have imposed additional pressures. This book examines welfare state transformations across a representative range of European countries and at the EU level, and considers likely new directions in social policy. It reviews the dominant neo-liberal austerity response and discusses social investment, fightback, welfare chauvinism, and protectionism. It argues that the class solidarities and cleavages that shaped the development of welfare states are no longer powerful. Tensions surrounding divisions between old and young, women and men, immigrants and denizens, and between the winners in a new, more competitive, world and those who feel left behind are becoming steadily more important. European countries have entered a period of political instability and this is reflected in policy directions. Austerity predominates nearly everywhere, but patterns of social investment, protectionism, neo-Keynesian intervention, and fightback vary between countries. The volume identify areas of convergence and difference in European welfare state futures in this up-to-date study - essential reading to grasp the pace and directions of change.
