Hysteresis And Business Cycles

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Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra

Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Business Cycles and Financial Crises

Author : A. W. Mullineux
Publisher : Bookboon
ISBN 13 : 8776818853
Total Pages : 146 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (768 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles and Financial Crises by : A. W. Mullineux

Download or read book Business Cycles and Financial Crises written by A. W. Mullineux and published by Bookboon. This book was released on 1990 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries

Author : Dmitry Plotnikov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484371747
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries by : Dmitry Plotnikov

Download or read book Hysteresis in Unemployment and Jobless Recoveries written by Dmitry Plotnikov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-06 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium rational expectations model with search and multiple equilibria where aggregate shocks have a permanent effect on the unemployment rate. If agents' wealth decreases, the unemployment rate increases for a potentially indefinite period. This makes unemployment rate dynamics path dependent as in Blanchard and Summers (1987). I argue that this feature explains the persistence of the unemployment rate in the U.S. after the Great Recession and over the entire postwar period.

The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle

Author : Paul A. Volcker
Publisher : New York : Free Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 104 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle by : Paul A. Volcker

Download or read book The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle written by Paul A. Volcker and published by New York : Free Press. This book was released on 1978 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Aftershocks of Monetary Unification

Author : Mr.Tamim Bayoumi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475586914
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Aftershocks of Monetary Unification by : Mr.Tamim Bayoumi

Download or read book Aftershocks of Monetary Unification written by Mr.Tamim Bayoumi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-13 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Once upon a time, in the 1990s, it was widely agreed that neither Europe nor the United States was an optimum currency area, although moderating this concern was the finding that it was possible to distinguish a regional core and periphery (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1993). Revisiting these issues, we find that the United States is remains closer to an optimum currency area than the Euro Area. More intriguingly, the Euro Area shows striking changes in correlations and responses which we interpret as reflecting hysteresis with a financial twist, in which the financial system causes aggregate supply and demand shocks to reinforce each other. An implication is that the Euro Area needs vigorous, coordinated regulation of its banking and financial systems by a single supervisor—that monetary union without banking union will not work.

Business Cycles

Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226978907
Total Pages : 614 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Victor Zarnowitz

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 1992-06-15 with total page 614 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Victor Zarnowitz has long been a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting. These papers represent a carefully integrated and up-to-date study of business cycles, reexamining some of his earlier research as well as addressing recent developments in the literature and in history. In part one, Zarnowitz reviews with characteristic insight various theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories as well as more recent rational expectations and real business cycle theories. In doing so, he examines how the business cycle may have changed as the size of government, the exercise of fiscal and monetary policies, the openness of the economy to international forces, and the industrial structure have evolved over time. Emphasizing important research from the 1980s, Zarnowitz discusses in part two various measures of the trends and cycles in economic activity, including output, prices, inventories, investment in residential and nonresidential structures, equipment, and other economic variables. Here the author explores the duration and severity of U.S. business cycles over more than 150 years, and evaluates the ability of macro models to simulate past behavior of the economy. In part three the performance of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators is described and assessed and evidence is presented on the value of their composite measures. Finally, part four offers an analysis of the degree of success of large commercial forecasting firms and of many individual economists in predicting the course of inflation, real growth, unemployment, interest rates, and other key economic variables. Business Cycles is a timely study, certain tobecome a basic reference for professional forecasters and economists in government, academia, and the business community.

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780262560375
Total Pages : 409 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (63 download)

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Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986 by :

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986 written by and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Business Cycles

Author : Wesley Clair Mitchell
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 524 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Wesley Clair Mitchell

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and published by . This book was released on 1927 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "First printing, July, 1927.""A rewriting, based on new and fuller statistical material, of his book on 'Business cycles, ' published in 1913"--Foreword.

Business Cycles

Author : James Arthur Estey
Publisher : Englewood Cliffs, N.J., Prentice-Hall
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 518 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : James Arthur Estey

Download or read book Business Cycles written by James Arthur Estey and published by Englewood Cliffs, N.J., Prentice-Hall. This book was released on 1956 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

Author : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513555839
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications by : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard

Download or read book Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-06 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.

Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations

Author : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451875657
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations by : Mr.Pau Rabanal

Download or read book Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-12-01 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Author : Laurent Ferrara
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319790757
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara

Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Economic Cycles

Author : Solomos Solomou
Publisher : Manchester University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780719041518
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (415 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Cycles by : Solomos Solomou

Download or read book Economic Cycles written by Solomos Solomou and published by Manchester University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?

Business Cycles

Author : Joseph A. Schumpeter
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 672 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Joseph A. Schumpeter

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Joseph A. Schumpeter and published by . This book was released on 1939 with total page 672 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities

Author : J. Barkley Rosser
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461337968
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (613 download)

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Book Synopsis From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities by : J. Barkley Rosser

Download or read book From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities written by J. Barkley Rosser and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Now, however, weface an Age of Discontinuity in world economy and tech nology. We might succeed in making it an age of great economic growth as weil. But the one thing that is certain so far is that it will be a period of change-in technology and in economic policy, in industry structures and in economic theo ry, in the knowledge needed to govern and manage, and in economic issues. While we have been busy finishing the great nineteenth-century economic ed ijice, the foundations have shifted beneath our feet." Peter F. Drucker, 1968 The A~e Qf DiscQntinuity, p. 10 This project has had a lQng gestatiQn period, probably ultimately dating to a YQuthful QbsessiQn with watershed divides and bQundaries. My awareness Qf the problem Qf discQntinuity in eCQnQmics dates tQ my first enCQunter with the capi tal theQry paradQxes in the late 1960s, the fruits Qf which can be seen in Chapter 8 Qf this book. This awareness led tQ a frostratiQn Qver the apparent lack Qf a mathematics Qf discQntinuity, a lack that was in the process of rapidly being QverCQme at that time.

Business Cycles

Author : Friedrich August Hayek
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (88 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Friedrich August Hayek

Download or read book Business Cycles written by Friedrich August Hayek and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years following its publication, F.A. Hayek & rsquo; s pioneering work on business cycles was regarded as an important challenge to what was later known as Keynesian macroeconomics. Today, as debates rage on over the monetary origins of the current economic and financial crisis, economists are once again paying heed to Hayek & rsquo; s thoughts on the repercussions of excessive central bank interventions. The latest editions in the University of Chicago Press & rsquo; s ongoing series The Collected Works of F.A. Hayek, these volumes bring together Hayek & rsquo; s work on what causes periods.

Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle

Author : Jordi Galí
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400866278
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle by : Jordi Galí

Download or read book Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle written by Jordi Galí and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-06-09 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The classic introduction to the New Keynesian economic model This revised second edition of Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle provides a rigorous graduate-level introduction to the New Keynesian framework and its applications to monetary policy. The New Keynesian framework is the workhorse for the analysis of monetary policy and its implications for inflation, economic fluctuations, and welfare. A backbone of the new generation of medium-scale models under development at major central banks and international policy institutions, the framework provides the theoretical underpinnings for the price stability–oriented strategies adopted by most central banks in the industrialized world. Using a canonical version of the New Keynesian model as a reference, Jordi Galí explores various issues pertaining to monetary policy's design, including optimal monetary policy and the desirability of simple policy rules. He analyzes several extensions of the baseline model, allowing for cost-push shocks, nominal wage rigidities, and open economy factors. In each case, the effects on monetary policy are addressed, with emphasis on the desirability of inflation-targeting policies. New material includes the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and an analysis of unemployment’s significance for monetary policy. The most up-to-date introduction to the New Keynesian framework available A single benchmark model used throughout New materials and exercises included An ideal resource for graduate students, researchers, and market analysts