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Underestimated Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future
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Book Synopsis Underestimated Second Edition by : Henry D. Sokolski
Download or read book Underestimated Second Edition written by Henry D. Sokolski and published by . This book was released on 2016-08-19 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players. This, in a nutshell, is the premise of Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what we may be up against and how we think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? Might they be used and, if so, what might we suffer? Finally, what can be done? Underestimated examines each of these questions. NPEC created the first version of Underestimated in November of 2014. An updated version was published by SSI at the end of 2015. This second edition includes the very latest citations and research.
Book Synopsis Underestimated by : Henry D. Sokolski
Download or read book Underestimated written by Henry D. Sokolski and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2015-12-24 with total page 154 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Henry Sokolski has written an excellent, short book about what he sees as our not so peaceful nuclear future. While short in length, it covers a lot of ground, and because it is extensively footnoted, it can lead readers to the broader literature. The book provides a good picture of the growing stockpiles of separated plutonium and the stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, as well as the likely expansion of nuclear power programs in additional countries. When reading the book, my thoughts turned to the Per Bak book, How Nature Works, and the concept of self-organized criticality and its descriptions of computer simulations and experiments leading to avalanches in sandpiles. This may be a useful way of thinking about the possible consequences for nuclear weapon proliferation as the stockpiles of fi ssile material grow.
Book Synopsis Underestimated by : Henry D. Sokolski
Download or read book Underestimated written by Henry D. Sokolski and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players. This, in a nutshell, is the premise of Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what nuclear futures we may face over the next 3 decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How great will the consequences be? What can be done?"--Publisher's web site.
Book Synopsis Underestimated by : Henry D. Sokolski
Download or read book Underestimated written by Henry D. Sokolski and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2018-09-16 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, Second Edition explores what nuclear future we may face over the next three decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How dire will the consequences be? What might help us avoid the worst?
Book Synopsis Underestimated by : Henry D. Sokolski
Download or read book Underestimated written by Henry D. Sokolski and published by . This book was released on 2015-12-28 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the world focused on the nuclear crisis in Iran, it is tempting to think that addressing this case, North Korea, and the problem of nuclear terrorism is all that matters and is what matters most. Perhaps, but if states become more willing to use their nuclear weapons to achieve military advantage, the problem of proliferation will become much more unwieldy. In this case, U.S. security will be hostage not just to North Korea, Iran, or terrorists, but to nuclear proliferation more generally, diplomatic miscalculations, and wars between a much larger number of possible players. This, in a nutshell, is the premise of Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future, which explores what we may be up against over the next few decades and how we currently think about this future. Will nuclear weapons spread in the next 20 years to more nations than just North Korea and possibly Iran? How great will the consequences be? What can be done?
Download or read book Underestimated written by Henry Sokolski and published by . This book was released on 2015-01-23 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Underestimated written by U S Military and published by . This book was released on 2019-07-06 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new, second edition "Underestimated" report is from 2018. Mr. Henry Sokolski has written an excellent, short book about what he sees as our not so peaceful nuclear future. While short in length, it covers a lot of ground, and because it is extensively footnoted, it can lead readers to the broader literature. The book provides a good picture of the growing stockpiles of separated plutonium and the stockpiles of highly-enriched uranium, as well as the likely expansion of nuclear power programs in additional countries. When reading the book, my thoughts turned to the Per Bak book, How Nature Works, and the concept of self-organized criticality and its descriptions of computer simulations and experiments leading to avalanches in sand piles. This may be a useful way of thinking about the possible consequences of nuclear weapons proliferation as the stockpiles of fissile material grow. Also, as we think about the likelihood of the proliferation of nuclear weapons, we should be aware that developing nuclear weapons may be easier as time passes and computing power increases, high energy explosives improve, and diagnostic technology advances. Mr. Sokolski includes a discussion of the question: Does it matter if more countries have nuclear weapons? He points out that a number of respected people say it does not; some say it would be a more stable world. Mr. Sokolski disagrees, and I am with him, for two reasons. First, those who say it will not matter, I believe, tend to assume that deterrence of attacks by others is almost automatic. There is little discussion of the vulnerability of the weapons, delivery systems, command and central systems, and more. Having a well-protected second-strike capability historically was not automatic; it took time and effort, changed operational practices, etc. Second, the Russians have been writing for at least the past 15 years of the need they have for tactical nuclear weapons to defend their large territory, because they say they do not have the resources to defend conventionally. They call for a new generation of nuclear weapons that would be easier to use. They more recently have developed an interest in the early use of tactical nuclear weapons to de-escalate a conflict quickly.From the Preface: It has been more than 3 years since the release of the first edition of Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future. Since then, Kim Jong-un has conducted three nuclear tests, destroyed a nuclear test site, and has pledged to President Donald Trump to denuclearize. Meanwhile, the United States agreed to a multilateral nuclear deal limiting Iran's nuclear program and then pulled out of the deal. Finally, President Trump was elected and has been eager to question all aspects of U.S. policy, including those related to national security and nuclear policy. Other important nuclear developments have occurred as well. These are all reflected in the edits that have been made to this second edition.
Book Synopsis Stopping the Bomb by : Nicholas L. Miller
Download or read book Stopping the Bomb written by Nicholas L. Miller and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2018-04-15 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an intense and meticulously sourced study on the topic of nuclear weapons proliferation, beginning with America's introduction of the Atomic Age... His book provides a full explanation of America's policy with a time sequence necessarily focusing on the domino effect of states acquiring a nuclear weapons capability and the import of bureaucratic decisions on international political behavior.― Choice Stopping the Bomb examines the historical development and effectiveness of American efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Nicholas L. Miller offers here a novel theory that argues changes in American nonproliferation policy are the keys to understanding the nuclear landscape from the 1960s onward. The Chinese and Indian nuclear tests in the 1960s and 1970s forced the US government, Miller contends, to pay new and considerable attention to the idea of nonproliferation and to reexamine its foreign policies. Stopping the Bomb explores the role of the United States in combating the spread of nuclear weapons, an area often ignored to date. He explains why these changes occurred and how effective US policies have been in preventing countries from seeking and acquiring nuclear weapons. Miller's findings highlight the relatively rapid move from a permissive approach toward allies acquiring nuclear weapons to a more universal nonproliferation policy no matter whether friend or foe. Four in-depth case studies of US nonproliferation policy—toward Taiwan, Pakistan, Iran, and France—elucidate how the United States can compel countries to reverse ongoing nuclear weapons programs. Miller's findings in Stopping the Bomb have important implications for the continued study of nuclear proliferation, US nonproliferation policy, and beyond.
Book Synopsis Uranium Enrichment and Nuclear Weapon Proliferation by : Allan S. Krass
Download or read book Uranium Enrichment and Nuclear Weapon Proliferation written by Allan S. Krass and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-11-20 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1983, this book presents both the technical and political information necessary to evaluate the emerging threat to world security posed by recent advances in uranium enrichment technology. Uranium enrichment has played a relatively quiet but important role in the history of efforts by a number of nations to acquire nuclear weapons and by a number of others to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons. For many years the uranium enrichment industry was dominated by a single method, gaseous diffusion, which was technically complex, extremely capital-intensive, and highly inefficient in its use of energy. As long as this remained true, only the richest and most technically advanced nations could afford to pursue the enrichment route to weapon acquisition. But during the 1970s this situation changed dramatically. Several new and far more accessible enrichment techniques were developed, stimulated largely by the anticipation of a rapidly growing demand for enrichment services by the world-wide nuclear power industry. This proliferation of new techniques, coupled with the subsequent contraction of the commercial market for enriched uranium, has created a situation in which uranium enrichment technology might well become the most important contributor to further nuclear weapon proliferation. Some of the issues addressed in this book are: A technical analysis of the most important enrichment techniques in a form that is relevant to analysis of proliferation risks; A detailed projection of the world demand for uranium enrichment services; A summary and critique of present institutional non-proliferation arrangements in the world enrichment industry, and An identification of the states most likely to pursue the enrichment route to acquisition of nuclear weapons.
Book Synopsis Abolishing Nuclear Weapons by : George Perkovich
Download or read book Abolishing Nuclear Weapons written by George Perkovich and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-10-03 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nuclear disarmament is firmly back on the international agenda. But almost all current thinking on the subject is focused on the process of reducing the number of weapons from thousands to hundreds. This rigorous analysis examines the challenges that exist to abolishing nuclear weapons completely, and suggests what can be done now to start overcoming them. The paper argues that the difficulties of 'getting to zero' must not preclude many steps being taken in that direction. It thus begins by examining steps that nuclear-armed states could take in cooperation with others to move towards a world in which the task of prohibiting nuclear weapons could be realistically envisaged. The remainder of the paper focuses on the more distant prospect of prohibiting nuclear weapons, beginning with the challenge of verifying the transition from low numbers to zero. It moves on to examine how the civilian nuclear industry could be managed in a nuclear-weapons-free world so as to prevent rearmament. The paper then considers what political-security conditions would be required to make a nuclear-weapons ban enforceable and explores how enforcement might work in practice. Finally, it addresses the latent capability to produce nuclear weapons that would inevitably exist after abolition, and asks whether this is a barrier to disarmament, or whether it can be managed to meet the security needs of a world newly free of the bomb.
Book Synopsis Double Jeopardy by : Daniel B. Poneman
Download or read book Double Jeopardy written by Daniel B. Poneman and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-05-28 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Making the case that we can use nuclear power to combat climate change even as we reduce the risks of nuclear terror. Humanity faces two existential threats: nuclear annihilation and catastrophic climate change. Both have human origins, and both are linked to the use of nuclear energy. Inherent in the use of atomic fission is the risk that the technology and materials can be diverted to terrorists or hostile nations and used to make nuclear weapons. The key question is whether we can use nuclear energy to reduce the threat of climate change without increasing the risk that nuclear weapons will be used. In Double Jeopardy, Daniel Poneman argues that the world needs an “all-of-the-above” energy policy, one that advances the goal of decarbonizing the environment through all available means—including nuclear power. Poneman makes a compelling case that we can enhance the ability of nuclear power to combat climate change even as we reduce the risks of nuclear terror. Doing so will require well-crafted laws and policies, implemented with an ethos of constant vigilance and embedded in a culture that weaves safety and security goals into the fabric of our nuclear programs. This will enable government and industry to work together to maximize energy and climate benefits while minimizing safety and security risks.
Book Synopsis Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice by :
Download or read book Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2004 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nearly 40 years after the concept of finite deterrence was popularized by the Johnson administration, nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) thinking appears to be in decline. The United States has rejected the notion that threatening population centers with nuclear attacks is a legitimate way to assure deterrence. Most recently, it withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, an agreement based on MAD. American opposition to MAD also is reflected in the Bush administration's desire to develop smaller, more accurate nuclear weapons that would reduce the number of innocent civilians killed in a nuclear strike. Still, MAD is influential in a number of ways. First, other countries, like China, have not abandoned the idea that holding their adversaries' cities at risk is necessary to assure their own strategic security. Nor have U.S. and allied security officials and experts fully abandoned the idea. At a minimum, acquiring nuclear weapons is still viewed as being sensible to face off a hostile neighbor that might strike one's own cities. Thus, our diplomats have been warning China that Japan would be under tremendous pressure to go nuclear if North Korea persisted in acquiring a few crude weapons of its own. Similarly, Israeli officials have long argued, without criticism, that they would not be second in acquiring nuclear weapons in the Middle East. Indeed, given that Israelis surrounded by enemies that would not hesitate to destroy its population if they could, Washington finds Israel's retention of a significant nuclear capability totally "understandable."
Book Synopsis Atoms for Peace and War, 1953-1961 by : Richard G. Hewlett
Download or read book Atoms for Peace and War, 1953-1961 written by Richard G. Hewlett and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2023-09-01 with total page 742 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title is part of UC Press's Voices Revived program, which commemorates University of California Press’s mission to seek out and cultivate the brightest minds and give them voice, reach, and impact. Drawing on a backlist dating to 1893, Voices Revived makes high-quality, peer-reviewed scholarship accessible once again using print-on-demand technology. This title was originally published in 1989.
Download or read book Eliminating Nuclear Threats written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Nuclear Heuristics Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter by : Robert Zarate
Download or read book Nuclear Heuristics Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter written by Robert Zarate and published by . This book was released on 2009-04 with total page 660 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication is an edited volume of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetters' key writings relating to nuclear proliferation and national security affairs, with commentaries by the Wohlstetters' colleagues and students. It also serves as a testament to the continuing relevance of the work of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter in the fields of nuclear and security policy analysis. Albert and Roberta wrote hundreds of articles and studies on U.S. policy on the Balkans, as well as the Persian Gulf; strategic command and control; intelligence and warning; NATO nuclear planning; U.S.-Russian arms control; strategic and theater missile defenses; the economics and military dangers of civilian nuclear energy; nuclear safeguards and nuclear nonproliferation; and military nuclear strategy and methods of policy analysis and design. Increased concern about the spread of nuclear weapons in the Far and Middle East, the controversy surrounding civilian nuclear cooperation with India, the global revival of nuclear power and debate over its economics and security implications, the controversies surrounding how the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty's obligations and rights are being cynically read by Iran and other states - all of these issues have prompted Washington pundits and national security analysts to cite the Wohlstetters' work. The same can also be said of the security concerns recently raised by Islamic fundamentalism, the continued instability of the Balkans, the questions surrounding NATO's future and America's alliances in the Far East, the relevance of nuclear deterrence after the Cold War, and the emergence of ballistic missile defense as a key ingredient in strategic forces and alliance relations. This volume can hardly cover all the insights that the Wohlstetters' work might shed on these topics. Instead, it is designed to make some of the most significant of Albert and Roberta's writings many of which were previously unpublished much more accessible.
Book Synopsis Witness to Transformation by : Stephan Haggard
Download or read book Witness to Transformation written by Stephan Haggard and published by Peterson Institute. This book was released on 2010-07-20 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Human rights and the protection of refugees is not a concern of left or right, or of the US only; it is an issue of importance to all Koreans, and indeed all countries. Haggard and Noland provide compelling evidence of the ongoing transformation of North Korean society and offer thoughtful proposals as to how the outside world might facilitate peaceful evolution."--Yoon Young-kwan, former Foreign Minister, Rob Moo-byun government --Book Jacket
Book Synopsis Confessions of a Recovering Environmentalist and Other Essays by : Paul Kingsnorth
Download or read book Confessions of a Recovering Environmentalist and Other Essays written by Paul Kingsnorth and published by Graywolf Press. This book was released on 2017-08-01 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A provocative and urgent essay collection that asks how we can live with hope in “an age of ecocide” Paul Kingsnorth was once an activist—an ardent environmentalist. He fought against rampant development and the depredations of a corporate world that seemed hell-bent on ignoring a looming climate crisis in its relentless pursuit of profit. But as the environmental movement began to focus on “sustainability” rather than the defense of wild places for their own sake and as global conditions worsened, he grew disenchanted with the movement that he once embraced. He gave up what he saw as the false hope that residents of the First World would ever make the kind of sacrifices that might avert the severe consequences of climate change. Full of grief and fury as well as passionate, lyrical evocations of nature and the wild, Confessions of a Recovering Environmentalist gathers the wave-making essays that have charted the change in Kingsnorth’s thinking. In them he articulates a new vision that he calls “dark ecology,” which stands firmly in opposition to the belief that technology can save us, and he argues for a renewed balance between the human and nonhuman worlds. This iconoclastic, fearless, and ultimately hopeful book, which includes the much-discussed “Uncivilization” manifesto, asks hard questions about how we’ve lived and how we should live.
