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Uncovered Interest Parity Forward Guidance And The Exchange Rate
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Book Synopsis Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Guidance, and the Exchange Rate by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book Uncovered Interest Parity, Forward Guidance, and the Exchange Rate written by Jordi Galí and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Under uncovered interest parity (UIP), the size of the effect on the real exchange rate of an anticipated change in real interest rate differentials is invariant to the horizon at which the change is expected. Empirical evidence using US, euro area and UK data points to a substantial deviation from that invariance prediction: expectations of interest rate differentials in the near (distant) future are shown to have much larger (smaller) effects on the real exchange rate than is implied by UIP. Some possible explanations are discussed.
Book Synopsis Uncovered Interest Parity by : Mr.Peter Isard
Download or read book Uncovered Interest Parity written by Mr.Peter Isard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-05 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides an overview of the uncovered interest parity assumption. It traces the history of the interest parity concept, summarizes evidence on the empirical validity of uncovered interest parity, and discusses the implications for macroeconomic analysis. The uncovered interest parity assumption has been an important building block in multiperiod and continuous time models of open economies, and although its validity is strongly challenged by the empirical evidence, its retention in macroeconomic models is supported on pragmatic grounds, at least for the time being, by the lack of much empirical support for existing models of the exchange risk premium.
Book Synopsis Uncovered Interest Parity by : Peter Isard
Download or read book Uncovered Interest Parity written by Peter Isard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-04 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of the uncovered interest parity assumption. It traces the history of the interest parity concept, summarizes evidence on the empirical validity of uncovered interest parity, and discusses different interpretations of the evidence and the implications for macroeconomic analysis. The uncovered interest parity assumption has been an important building block in multiperiod models of open economies, and although its validity is strongly challenged by the empirical evidence, at least at short time horizons, its retention in macroeconomic models is supported on pragmatic grounds by the lack of much empirical support for existing models of the exchange risk premium.
Book Synopsis Long-horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity by : Guy Meredith
Download or read book Long-horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity written by Guy Meredith and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been almost universally rejected in studies of exchange rate movements, although there is little consensus on why it fails. In contrast to previous studies, which have used relatively short-horizon data, we test UIP using interest rates on longer-maturity bonds for the G-7 countries. These long-horizon regressions yield much more support for UIP -- all the coefficients on interest differentials are of the correct sign, and almost all are closer to the UIP value of unity than to the zero coefficient implied by the random walk hypothesis. We then use a small macroeconomic model to explain the differences between the short- and long-horizon results. Regressions run on data generated by stochastic simulations replicate the important regularities in the actual data, including the sharp differences between short- and long-horizon parameters. In the short run from risk premium shocks in the face of endogenous monetary policy. In the long run, in contrast, exchange rate movements are driven by the "fundamentals," leading to a relationship between interest rates and exchange rates that is more consistent with UIP.
Book Synopsis Do Exchange Rates Move in Line With Uncovered Interest Parity? by : Ronald Huisman
Download or read book Do Exchange Rates Move in Line With Uncovered Interest Parity? written by Ronald Huisman and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to uncovered interest rate Parity (UIP), the expected relative change in an exchange rate is equal to the difference between interest rates between the two currencies. Empirically, UIP is frequently rejected. In this paper, we examine whether exchange rates have at least any tendency to move in the direction predicted by UIP and whether exchange rates tend to move more in line with UIP in periods with large interest rate differentials.
Book Synopsis Violations of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and International Exchange Rate Dependences by : Matthew Ames
Download or read book Violations of Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and International Exchange Rate Dependences written by Matthew Ames and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The uncovered interest rate parity puzzle questions the economic relation existing between short term interest rate differentials and exchange rates. One would indeed expect that the differential of interest rates between two countries should be offset by an opposite evolution of the exchange rate between them, hence ruling out any limited risk profit opportunities. However, it has been shown empirically that this relation is not holding and accordingly has led, over the past two decades, to the reinforcement of a well-known trading strategy in financial markets, namely the currency carry trade. This paper investigates how highly leveraged, mass speculator behaviour affects the dependence structure of currency returns. We propose a rigorous statistical modelling approach using two complementary techniques in order to demonstrate that speculative carry trade volumes are informative in both the covariance and tail dependence of high and low interest rate currency returns, whereas the price based factors previously suggested in the literature hold little explanatory power. We add a new feature to the understanding of the link between the UIP condition and the carry trade strategy, specifically attributed to the large joint exchange rate movements in high and low risk environments.The appendices for this paper are available at the following URL: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2638103" http://ssrn.com/abstract=2638103.
Book Synopsis Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity by : Evan Tanner
Download or read book Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity written by Evan Tanner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-08 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ex-post deviations from uncovered interest parity (UIP) – realized differences between dollar returns on identical assets of different currencies – equal the real interest differential plus real exchange rate growth. Among industrialized countries, UIP deviations are largely explained by unanticipated real exchange rate growth, but among developing countries, real interest differentials are “where the action is.” This observation is due to the greater variability of inflation in developing countries, but may also stem from higher and more variable risks and capital controls in these countries. Also, among developing countries with moderate inflation, offsetting comovements of real interest differentials and real exchange growth support the sticky-price hypothesis.
Book Synopsis Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants by : Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti
Download or read book Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants written by Mr.Eugenio M Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-16 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Behavioral Open Economy Model by : Marcin Kolasa
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics in a Behavioral Open Economy Model written by Marcin Kolasa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-06-03 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an extension of the open economy New Keynesian model in which agents are boundedly rational à la Gabaix (2020). Our setup nests rational expectations (RE) as a special case and it can successfully mitigate many “puzzling” aspects of the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates. Since the model implies an uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition featuring behavioral expectations, our results are also consistent with recent empirical evidence showing that several UIP puzzles vanish when actual exchange rate expectations are used (instead of realizations implicitly coupled with the RE assumption). We find that cognitive discounting dampens the effects of current monetary shocks and lowers the efficacy of forward guidance (FG), but its relative importance in mitigating the so-called FG puzzle is decreasing in openness. Finally, we show that accounting for myopia exacerbates the small open economy unit-root problem, makes positive monetary spillovers more likely, and increases the persistence of net foreign assets and the real exchange rate.
Book Synopsis Uncovered Interest Parity by : Alain P. Chaboud
Download or read book Uncovered Interest Parity written by Alain P. Chaboud and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Uncovered Interest Rate Parity - A Literature Review by : Hiruni Kaushala
Download or read book The Uncovered Interest Rate Parity - A Literature Review written by Hiruni Kaushala and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interest rates and exchange rates are considered to be one of the most discussed areas in International Finance. When considering the main theories that explore on these two variables, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) states that the interest rate differential is an unbiased predictor of the spot exchange rate changes. The impact on investors' attitude is that they would be indifferent towards the returns on domestic and foreign assets denominated in same currency thereby eliminating any short term arbitrage profits. Studies of this nature are of significance in the case of Sri Lanka, as a country which is trade dependent accurate forecasts of exchange rates would be of immense importance. Hence this study focuses on reviewing what is revealed by literature so far and what is not.
Book Synopsis Covered Interest Parity, Uncovered Interest Parity, and Exchange Rate Dynamics by : Jonathan Eaton
Download or read book Covered Interest Parity, Uncovered Interest Parity, and Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Jonathan Eaton and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A number of macroeconomic models of open economies under flexible exchange rate assume a strong version of perfect capital mobility which implies that currency speculation commands no risk premium. If this assumption is dropped a number of important results no longer obtain. First, the exchange rate and interest rate cannot be in steady state unless both the government deficit and current account equal zero, not simply their sum, as would otherwise be the case. Second, even in steady state the domestic interest rate can deviate from the foreign interest rate by an amount which de ends upon relative domestic asset supplies. Finally, introducing risk aversion on the part of speculators can reduce the response on impact of the exchange rate to changes in domestic asset supplies. In this sense rational speculators, if they are less risk averse than other agents, can destabilize exchange markets
Book Synopsis The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle, Exchange Rate Forecasting, and Taylor Rules by : Charles Engel
Download or read book The Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle, Exchange Rate Forecasting, and Taylor Rules written by Charles Engel and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent research has found that the Taylor-rule fundamentals have power to forecast changes in U.S. dollar exchange rates out of sample. Our work casts some doubt on that claim. However, we find strong evidence of a related in-sample anomaly. When we include U.S. inflation in the well-known uncovered interest parity regression of the change in the exchange rate on the interest-rate differential, we find that the inflation variable is highly significant and the interest-rate differential is not. Specifically, high U.S. inflation in one month forecasts dollar appreciation in the subsequent month. We introduce a model in which a Taylor rule determines monetary policy, but in which not only monetary shocks but also liquidity shocks drive nominal interest rates. This model can potentially account for the empirical findings.
Book Synopsis A Generalized Uncovered Interest Parity Model of Real Exchange Rates by : Adrian W. Throop
Download or read book A Generalized Uncovered Interest Parity Model of Real Exchange Rates written by Adrian W. Throop and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Term Structure by : Geert Bekaert
Download or read book Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Term Structure written by Geert Bekaert and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) and the expectations hypotheses of the term structure (EHTS) at both short and long horizons. The statistical evidence against UIRP is mixed and is currency- not horizon-dependent. Economically, the deviations from UIRP are less pronounced than previously documented. The evidence against the EHTS is statistically more uniform, but, economically, actual spreads and theoretical spreads (spreads constructed under the null of the EHTS) do not behave very differently, especially at long horizons. Partly because of this, the deviations from the EHTS only play a minor role in explaining deviations from UIRP at long horizons. A random walk model for both exchange rates and interest rates fits the data marginally better than the UIRP-EHTS model
Book Synopsis Interest Rates in Open Economies by : Dipak Das Gupta
Download or read book Interest Rates in Open Economies written by Dipak Das Gupta and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers must address the central questions: How much do world interest rates influence domestic rates? And what are the respective roles of monetary policy, real interest parity, expectations of change in the exchange rate, and "country risk?"
Book Synopsis Co-Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of PPP-Based Exchange Rate Expectations by : Jan Marc Berk
Download or read book Co-Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of PPP-Based Exchange Rate Expectations written by Jan Marc Berk and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-06 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investigates international co-movement in bond yields by testing for uncovered interest parity (UIP), by focusing on long instead of short-term interest rates and by employing exchange rate expectations derived from purchasing power parity (PPP).
