Uncertain Judgements

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Uncertain Judgements

Author : Anthony O'Hagan
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470033304
Total Pages : 338 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertain Judgements by : Anthony O'Hagan

Download or read book Uncertain Judgements written by Anthony O'Hagan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2006-08-30 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

Uncertain Justice

Author : Laurence Tribe
Publisher : Macmillan
ISBN 13 : 0805099093
Total Pages : 416 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (5 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertain Justice by : Laurence Tribe

Download or read book Uncertain Justice written by Laurence Tribe and published by Macmillan. This book was released on 2014-06-03 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A revelatory assessment of how the Supreme Court under Chief Justice John Roberts is significantly influencing the nation's laws and reinterpreting the Constitution includes in-depth analysis of recent rulings to explore their less-understood debates and relevance. 50,000 first printing.

Rational Choice in an Uncertain World

Author : Reid Hastie
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 1412959039
Total Pages : 393 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Choice in an Uncertain World by : Reid Hastie

Download or read book Rational Choice in an Uncertain World written by Reid Hastie and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2010 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams.

Judgment Under Uncertainty

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521284141
Total Pages : 574 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (841 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment Under Uncertainty by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1982-04-30 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.

Heuristics and Biases

Author : Thomas Gilovich
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521796798
Total Pages : 884 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (967 download)

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Book Synopsis Heuristics and Biases by : Thomas Gilovich

Download or read book Heuristics and Biases written by Thomas Gilovich and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2002-07-08 with total page 884 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, first published in 2002, compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer important questions about intuitive judgment.

Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives

Author : David R. Mandel
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 288963034X
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (896 download)

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Book Synopsis Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives by : David R. Mandel

Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives written by David R. Mandel and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2019-09-26 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Oxford Handbook of Cognitive Psychology

Author : Daniel Reisberg
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 0195376749
Total Pages : 1106 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (953 download)

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Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Cognitive Psychology by : Daniel Reisberg

Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Cognitive Psychology written by Daniel Reisberg and published by . This book was released on 2013-04-04 with total page 1106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook is an essential, comprehensive resource for students and academics interested in topics in cognitive psychology, including perceptual issues, attention, memory, knowledge representation, language, emotional influences, judgment, problem solving, and the study of individual differences in cognition.

Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making

Author : Dirk Wendt
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9789027706034
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (6 download)

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Book Synopsis Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making by : Dirk Wendt

Download or read book Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making written by Dirk Wendt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1975-12-31 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.

Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Author : John Kay
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 1324004789
Total Pages : 407 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by : John Kay

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers written by John Kay and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Bayesian Models for Categorical Data

Author : Peter Congdon
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470092386
Total Pages : 446 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Models for Categorical Data by : Peter Congdon

Download or read book Bayesian Models for Categorical Data written by Peter Congdon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-12-13 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of Bayesian methods for the analysis of data has grown substantially in areas as diverse as applied statistics, psychology, economics and medical science. Bayesian Methods for Categorical Data sets out to demystify modern Bayesian methods, making them accessible to students and researchers alike. Emphasizing the use of statistical computing and applied data analysis, this book provides a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian methods of categorical outcomes. * Reviews recent Bayesian methodology for categorical outcomes (binary, count and multinomial data). * Considers missing data models techniques and non-standard models (ZIP and negative binomial). * Evaluates time series and spatio-temporal models for discrete data. * Features discussion of univariate and multivariate techniques. * Provides a set of downloadable worked examples with documented WinBUGS code, available from an ftp site. The author's previous 2 bestselling titles provided a comprehensive introduction to the theory and application of Bayesian models. Bayesian Models for Categorical Data continues to build upon this foundation by developing their application to categorical, or discrete data - one of the most common types of data available. The author's clear and logical approach makes the book accessible to a wide range of students and practitioners, including those dealing with categorical data in medicine, sociology, psychology and epidemiology.

Elicitation

Author : Luis C. Dias
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319650521
Total Pages : 542 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Elicitation by : Luis C. Dias

Download or read book Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-11-16 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.

Superforecasting

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Uncertain Judgements

Author : Anthony O'Hagan
Publisher : Wiley
ISBN 13 : 9780470029992
Total Pages : 338 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (299 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertain Judgements by : Anthony O'Hagan

Download or read book Uncertain Judgements written by Anthony O'Hagan and published by Wiley. This book was released on 2006-09-01 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

Inside the Critics’ Circle

Author : Phillipa K. Chong
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691212503
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)

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Book Synopsis Inside the Critics’ Circle by : Phillipa K. Chong

Download or read book Inside the Critics’ Circle written by Phillipa K. Chong and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-09-14 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An inside look at the politics of book reviewing, from the assignment and writing of reviews to why critics think we should listen to what they have to say Taking readers behind the scenes in the world of fiction reviewing, Inside the Critics’ Circle explores the ways critics evaluate books despite the inherent subjectivity involved and the uncertainties of reviewing when seemingly anyone can be a reviewer. Drawing on interviews with critics from such venues as the New York Times, Los Angeles Times, and Washington Post, Phillipa Chong delves into the complexities of the review-writing process, including the considerations, values, and cultural and personal anxieties that shape what critics do. Chong explores how critics are paired with review assignments, why they accept these time-consuming projects, how they view their own qualifications for reviewing certain books, and the criteria they employ when making literary judgments. She discovers that while their readers are of concern to reviewers, they are especially worried about authors on the receiving end of reviews. As these are most likely peers who will be returning similar favors in the future, critics’ fears and frustrations factor into their willingness or reluctance to write negative reviews. At a time when traditional review opportunities are dwindling while other forms of reviewing thrive, book reviewing as a professional practice is being brought into question. Inside the Critics’ Circle offers readers a revealing look into critics’ responses to these massive transitions and how, through their efforts, literary values get made.

Choices, Values, and Frames

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521627498
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (274 download)

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Book Synopsis Choices, Values, and Frames by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Choices, Values, and Frames written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000-09-25 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the definitive exposition of 'prospect theory', a compelling alternative to the classical utility theory of choice. Building on the 1982 volume, Judgement Under Uncertainty, this book brings together seminal papers on prospect theory from economists, decision theorists, and psychologists, including the work of the late Amos Tversky, whose contributions are collected here for the first time. While remaining within a rational choice framework, prospect theory delivers more accurate, empirically verified predictions in key test cases, as well as helping to explain many complex, real-world puzzles. In this volume, it is brought to bear on phenomena as diverse as the principles of legal compensation, the equity premium puzzle in financial markets, and the number of hours that New York cab drivers choose to drive on rainy days. Theoretically elegant and empirically robust, this volume shows how prospect theory has matured into a new science of decision making.

Valuing Ecosystem Services

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030909318X
Total Pages : 291 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Valuing Ecosystem Services by : National Research Council

Download or read book Valuing Ecosystem Services written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2005-05-14 with total page 291 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nutrient recycling, habitat for plants and animals, flood control, and water supply are among the many beneficial services provided by aquatic ecosystems. In making decisions about human activities, such as draining a wetland for a housing development, it is essential to consider both the value of the development and the value of the ecosystem services that could be lost. Despite a growing recognition of the importance of ecosystem services, their value is often overlooked in environmental decision-making. This report identifies methods for assigning economic value to ecosystem servicesâ€"even intangible onesâ€"and calls for greater collaboration between ecologists and economists in such efforts.

Human Judgment and Social Policy

Author : Kenneth R. Hammond
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0195143272
Total Pages : 449 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (951 download)

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Book Synopsis Human Judgment and Social Policy by : Kenneth R. Hammond

Download or read book Human Judgment and Social Policy written by Kenneth R. Hammond and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1996 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics, the author presents a comprehensive examination of the underlying dynamics of judgment, dramatizing its important role in the formation of social policies which affect us all.