Rational Choice In An Uncertain World

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Rational Choice in an Uncertain World

Author : Reid Hastie
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 1412959039
Total Pages : 393 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Choice in an Uncertain World by : Reid Hastie

Download or read book Rational Choice in an Uncertain World written by Reid Hastie and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2010 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams.

Rational Choice in an Uncertain World

Author : Reid Hastie
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 9780761922759
Total Pages : 390 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (227 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Choice in an Uncertain World by : Reid Hastie

Download or read book Rational Choice in an Uncertain World written by Reid Hastie and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2001-04-13 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First Edition, Winner of the prestigious William James Award from the American Psychological Association An understanding of the principles of rational decision making can help students improve the quality of their lives. Intended as an introductory textbook, the material in Rational Choice in an Uncertain World is not only of scholarly interest, but practical as well. Created specifically for courses on judgement and decision-making, this book makes research readily accessible to both undergraduate and graduate students. This Second Edition of the award-winning book, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World (1988) by Robyn M. Dawes, is sure to interest and enlighten students at all levels. This new edition features: · New student friendly chapter introductions as well as conclusions and cross-references between chapters. · Award-winning authors are respected professors with over 30 years of experience in the field. · Practical, everyday examples from such areas as finance, medicine, law, and engineering. · Comprehensive and up-to-date information keep this edition abreast of the changing ideas within the discipline · Additional discussion of the descriptive, psychological models of decision making to expand upon the original emphasis on normative, rational, `Expected Utility Theory′ models. Equipped with this knowledge and an understanding of the principles of rational decision making, both undergraduate and graduate students can help improve the quality of their choices and, thus, their life.

Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory

Author : Donald Green
Publisher : Yale University Press
ISBN 13 : 0300187084
Total Pages : 415 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory by : Donald Green

Download or read book Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory written by Donald Green and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 1994-09-28 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive critical evaluation of the use of rational choice theory in political science. Writing in an accessible and nontechnical style, Donald P. Green and Ian Shapiro assess rational choice theory where it is reputed to be most successful: the study of collective action, the behavior of political parties and politicians, and such phenomena as voting cycles and Prisoner's Dilemmas. In their hard-hitting critique, Green and Shapiro demonstrate that the much heralded achievements of rational choice theory are in fact deeply suspect and that fundamental rethinking is needed if rational choice theorists are to contribute to the understanding of politics. In their final chapters, they anticipate and respond to a variety of possible rational choice responses to their arguments, thereby initiating a dialogue that is bound to continue for some time.

Rationality

Author : Steven Pinker
Publisher : Penguin UK
ISBN 13 : 0241380308
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (413 download)

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Book Synopsis Rationality by : Steven Pinker

Download or read book Rationality written by Steven Pinker and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2021-09-28 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A TIMES BOOK OF THE YEAR 2021 'Punchy, funny and invigorating ... Pinker is the high priest of rationalism' Sunday Times 'If you've ever considered taking drugs to make yourself smarter, read Rationality instead. It's cheaper, more entertaining, and more effective' Jonathan Haidt, author of The Righteous Mind In the twenty-first century, humanity is reaching new heights of scientific understanding - and at the same time appears to be losing its mind. How can a species that discovered vaccines for Covid-19 in less than a year produce so much fake news, quack cures and conspiracy theorizing? In Rationality, Pinker rejects the cynical cliché that humans are simply an irrational species - cavemen out of time fatally cursed with biases, fallacies and illusions. After all, we discovered the laws of nature, lengthened and enriched our lives and set the benchmarks for rationality itself. Instead, he explains, we think in ways that suit the low-tech contexts in which we spend most of our lives, but fail to take advantage of the powerful tools of reasoning we have built up over millennia: logic, critical thinking, probability, causal inference, and decision-making under uncertainty. These tools are not a standard part of our educational curricula, and have never been presented clearly and entertainingly in a single book - until now. Rationality matters. It leads to better choices in our lives and in the public sphere, and is the ultimate driver of social justice and moral progress. Brimming with insight and humour, Rationality will enlighten, inspire and empower. 'A terrific book, much-needed for our time' Peter Singer

Strategic Management

Author : Allen Amason
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135234590
Total Pages : 314 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (352 download)

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Book Synopsis Strategic Management by : Allen Amason

Download or read book Strategic Management written by Allen Amason and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-03-17 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leadership, adaptability, value creation. These are the skills necessary for tomorrow's managers. This book is designed to help students think critically and understand fully how to strategically manage their future firms. .

The New Rational Manager

Author : Charles Higgins Kepner
Publisher : Princeton, N.J. (P.O. Box 704, Research Rd., Princeton 08540) : Princeton Research Press
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (49 download)

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Book Synopsis The New Rational Manager by : Charles Higgins Kepner

Download or read book The New Rational Manager written by Charles Higgins Kepner and published by Princeton, N.J. (P.O. Box 704, Research Rd., Princeton 08540) : Princeton Research Press. This book was released on 1981 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Insight into the art of managing people, information and capital resources from two highly respected management consultants.

Acting in an Uncertain World

Author : Michel Callon
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262515962
Total Pages : 301 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)

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Book Synopsis Acting in an Uncertain World by : Michel Callon

Download or read book Acting in an Uncertain World written by Michel Callon and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2011-01-21 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A call for a new form of democracy in which “hybrid forums” composed of experts and laypeople address such sociotechnical controversies as hazardous waste, genetically modified organisms, and nanotechnology. Controversies over such issues as nuclear waste, genetically modified organisms, asbestos, tobacco, gene therapy, avian flu, and cell phone towers arise almost daily as rapid scientific and technological advances create uncertainty and bring about unforeseen concerns. The authors of Acting in an Uncertain World argue that political institutions must be expanded and improved to manage these controversies, to transform them into productive conversations, and to bring about “technical democracy.” They show how “hybrid forums”—in which experts, non-experts, ordinary citizens, and politicians come together—reveal the limits of traditional delegative democracies, in which decisions are made by quasi-professional politicians and techno-scientific information is the domain of specialists in laboratories. The division between professionals and laypeople, the authors claim, is simply outmoded. The authors argue that laboratory research should be complemented by everyday experimentation pursued in the real world, and they describe various modes of cooperation between the two. They explore a range of concrete examples of hybrid forums that have dealt with sociotechnical controversies including nuclear waste disposal in France, industrial waste and birth defects in Japan, a childhood leukemia cluster in Woburn, Massachusetts, and mad cow disease in the United Kingdom. The authors discuss the implications for political decision making in general and describe a “dialogic” democracy that enriches traditional representative democracy. To invent new procedures for consultation and representation, they suggest, is to contribute to an endless process that is necessary for the ongoing democratization of democracy.

Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty

Author : Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 052151732X
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (215 download)

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Book Synopsis Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty by : Itzhak Gilboa

Download or read book Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

How Reason Almost Lost Its Mind

Author : Paul Erickson
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022604677X
Total Pages : 268 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis How Reason Almost Lost Its Mind by : Paul Erickson

Download or read book How Reason Almost Lost Its Mind written by Paul Erickson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-11-22 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the United States at the height of the Cold War, roughly between the end of World War II and the early 1980s, a new project of redefining rationality commanded the attention of sharp minds, powerful politicians, wealthy foundations, and top military brass. Its home was the human sciences—psychology, sociology, political science, and economics, among others—and its participants enlisted in an intellectual campaign to figure out what rationality should mean and how it could be deployed. How Reason Almost Lost Its Mind brings to life the people—Herbert Simon, Oskar Morgenstern, Herman Kahn, Anatol Rapoport, Thomas Schelling, and many others—and places, including the RAND Corporation, the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, the Cowles Commission for Research and Economics, and the Council on Foreign Relations, that played a key role in putting forth a “Cold War rationality.” Decision makers harnessed this picture of rationality—optimizing, formal, algorithmic, and mechanical—in their quest to understand phenomena as diverse as economic transactions, biological evolution, political elections, international relations, and military strategy. The authors chronicle and illuminate what it meant to be rational in the age of nuclear brinkmanship.

Uncertain Belief

Author : David J. Bartholomew
Publisher : Clarendon Press
ISBN 13 : 0191584738
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (915 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertain Belief by : David J. Bartholomew

Download or read book Uncertain Belief written by David J. Bartholomew and published by Clarendon Press. This book was released on 1996-03-14 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The certainties which once underpinned Christian belief have crumbled in a world where science sets the standard for what is true. A rational case for belief must therefore be constructed out of uncertainties. Probability theory provides the tools for measuring and combining uncertainties and is thus the key to progress. This book examines four much debated topics where the logic of uncertain inference can be brought to bear. These are: miracles, the paranormal, God's existence, and the Bible. Given the great diversity of evidence, it is not surprising that opposite conclusions have been drawn by supposedly rational people. An assessment of the state of argument from a probabilistic perspective is overdue. In this book Professor Bartholomew examines and refutes some of the more extravagent claims, evaluates the weight of some of the quantitive evidence, and provides an answer to the fundamental question: is it rational to be a Christian?

Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty

Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540684360
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (46 download)

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Book Synopsis Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty by : Mohammed Abdellaoui

Download or read book Advances in Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-29 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.

Return to Reason

Author : Stephen Edelston Toulmin
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674044428
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (74 download)

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Book Synopsis Return to Reason by : Stephen Edelston Toulmin

Download or read book Return to Reason written by Stephen Edelston Toulmin and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-30 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stephen Toulmin argues that the potential for reason to improve our lives has been hampered by a serious imbalance in our pursuit of knowledge. The centuries-old dominance of rationality has diminished the value of reasonableness. Toulmin issues a powerful call to redress the balance between rationality and reasonableness.

Moral Minds

Author : Marc D. Hauser
Publisher : Harper Collins
ISBN 13 : 0061864781
Total Pages : 530 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (618 download)

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Book Synopsis Moral Minds by : Marc D. Hauser

Download or read book Moral Minds written by Marc D. Hauser and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2009-10-13 with total page 530 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Harvard scientist illuminates the biological basis for human morality in this groundbreaking book. With the diversity of moral attitudes found across cultures around the globe, it is easy to assume that moral perspectives are socially developed—a matter of nurture rather than nature. But in Moral Minds, Marc Hauser presents compelling evidence to the contrary, and offers a revolutionary new theory: that humans have evolved a universal moral instinct. Hauser argues that certain biologically innate moral principles propel us toward judgments of right and wrong independent of gender, education, and religion. Combining his cutting-edge research with the latest findings in cognitive psychology, linguistics, neuroscience, evolutionary biology, economics, and anthropology, Hauser explores the startling implications of his provocative theory vis-à-vis contemporary bioethics, religion, the law, and our everyday lives.

House of Cards

Author : Robyn Dawes
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 9781439188880
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (888 download)

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Book Synopsis House of Cards by : Robyn Dawes

Download or read book House of Cards written by Robyn Dawes and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2009-11-24 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robin Dawes spares no one in this powerful critique of modern psychotherapeutic practice. As Dawes points out, we have all been swayed by the "pop psych" view of the world--believing, for example, that self-esteem is an essential precursor to being a productive human being, that events in one's childhood affect one's fate as an adult, and that "you have to love yourself before you can love another."

Taming Uncertainty

Author : Ralph Hertwig
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262353148
Total Pages : 489 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Taming Uncertainty by : Ralph Hertwig

Download or read book Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.

Rational Analysis for a Problematic World

Author : Jonathan Rosenhead
Publisher : Wiley
ISBN 13 : 9780471922865
Total Pages : 386 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (228 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Analysis for a Problematic World by : Jonathan Rosenhead

Download or read book Rational Analysis for a Problematic World written by Jonathan Rosenhead and published by Wiley. This book was released on 1999-04-22 with total page 386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An up-to-date overview of a range of methods for structuring decisions and problems, useful for strategic thinking and management. Presents six problem-structuring methodologies in a way that makes it easy to determine if that method is appropriate for a given situation. Covers strategic options development and analysis, soft systems methodology, robustness analysis, metagame analysis, hypergame analysis, and strategic choice, including the analysis of interconnected decision areas.

Rational Theory of International Politics

Author : Charles L. Glaser
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400835135
Total Pages : 329 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Theory of International Politics by : Charles L. Glaser

Download or read book Rational Theory of International Politics written by Charles L. Glaser and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-04-26 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Within the realist school of international relations, a prevailing view holds that the anarchic structure of the international system invariably forces the great powers to seek security at one another's expense, dooming even peaceful nations to an unrelenting struggle for power and dominance. Rational Theory of International Politics offers a more nuanced alternative to this view, one that provides answers to the most fundamental and pressing questions of international relations. Why do states sometimes compete and wage war while at other times they cooperate and pursue peace? Does competition reflect pressures generated by the anarchic international system or rather states' own expansionist goals? Are the United States and China on a collision course to war, or is continued coexistence possible? Is peace in the Middle East even feasible? Charles Glaser puts forward a major new theory of international politics that identifies three kinds of variables that influence a state's strategy: the state's motives, specifically whether it is motivated by security concerns or "greed"; material variables, which determine its military capabilities; and information variables, most importantly what the state knows about its adversary's motives. Rational Theory of International Politics demonstrates that variation in motives can be key to the choice of strategy; that the international environment sometimes favors cooperation over competition; and that information variables can be as important as material variables in determining the strategy a state should choose.