Radical Uncertainty Decision Making Beyond The Numbers

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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Author : John Kay
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 1324004789
Total Pages : 407 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by : John Kay

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers written by John Kay and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Radical Uncertainty

Author : Mervyn King
Publisher : Bridge Street Press
ISBN 13 : 9780349143996
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (439 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty by : Mervyn King

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty written by Mervyn King and published by Bridge Street Press. This book was released on 2021-09-02 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Obliquity

Author : John Kay
Publisher : Profile Books
ISBN 13 : 1847651852
Total Pages : 297 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (476 download)

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Book Synopsis Obliquity by : John Kay

Download or read book Obliquity written by John Kay and published by Profile Books. This book was released on 2011-02-03 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you want to go in one direction, the best route may involve going in another. This is the concept of 'obliquity': paradoxical as it sounds, many goals are more likely to be achieved when pursued indirectly. The richest men and women are not the most materialistic; the happiest people are not necessarily those who focus on happiness, and the most profitable companies are not always the most profit-oriented as the recent financial crisis showed us. Whether overcoming geographical obstacles, winning decisive battles or meeting sales targets, history shows that oblique approaches are the most successful, especially in difficult terrain. John Kay applies his provocative, universal theory to everything from international business to town planning and from football to managing forest fire.

Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty

Author : Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 052151732X
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (215 download)

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Book Synopsis Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty by : Itzhak Gilboa

Download or read book Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

Senate Proof

Author : Logan Snyder
Publisher : Greenleaf Book Group
ISBN 13 : 1632990121
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (329 download)

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Book Synopsis Senate Proof by : Logan Snyder

Download or read book Senate Proof written by Logan Snyder and published by Greenleaf Book Group. This book was released on 2015-01-13 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Set against the backdrop of the nation’s capital and the political elite, a generation’s old bootleg distillery finds itself in the midst of a power struggle between the hungry youth and the old guard, turning time-tested allies into foes. Cloaked in secrecy, an exclusive and clandestine network of politicians and law enforcement agents had operated the whiskey distillery without incident for decades, while producing barrel after barrel of illegal spirits, among other ventures. But things were beginning to change. Caroline Mills left a promising career on Wall Street to solve the mystery that had haunted her throughout her entire life—her father’s murder. Newly settled in rural Virginia, she uncovers ties between her new employer, the distillery head, and her father. Before long, Caroline finds herself a target of the distillery’s powerfully entrenched political entourage, sending her running for her life. Unwillingly forced into harm’s way, her new friend, Jackson Cole, relies on his cunning instinct to solve a crime that reaches into the depths of the United States Senate and Supreme Court. As the body count rises, questions begin to swirl around the District and nobody knows whom to trust.

Numbers and the Making of Us

Author : Caleb Everett
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 0674504437
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (745 download)

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Book Synopsis Numbers and the Making of Us by : Caleb Everett

Download or read book Numbers and the Making of Us written by Caleb Everett and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2017-03-13 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “A fascinating book.” —James Ryerson, New York Times Book Review A Smithsonian Best Science Book of the Year Winner of the PROSE Award for Best Book in Language & Linguistics Carved into our past and woven into our present, numbers shape our perceptions of the world far more than we think. In this sweeping account of how the invention of numbers sparked a revolution in human thought and culture, Caleb Everett draws on new discoveries in psychology, anthropology, and linguistics to reveal the many things made possible by numbers, from the concept of time to writing, agriculture, and commerce. Numbers are a tool, like the wheel, developed and refined over millennia. They allow us to grasp quantities precisely, but recent research confirms that they are not innate—and without numbers, we could not fully grasp quantities greater than three. Everett considers the number systems that have developed in different societies as he shares insights from his fascinating work with indigenous Amazonians. “This is bold, heady stuff... The breadth of research Everett covers is impressive, and allows him to develop a narrative that is both global and compelling... Numbers is eye-opening, even eye-popping.” —New Scientist “A powerful and convincing case for Everett’s main thesis: that numbers are neither natural nor innate to humans.” —Wall Street Journal

The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy

Author : Mervyn King
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 0393247031
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (932 download)

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Book Synopsis The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy by : Mervyn King

Download or read book The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy written by Mervyn King and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2016-03-21 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Mervyn King may well have written the most important book to come out of the financial crisis. Agree or disagree, King’s visionary ideas deserve the attention of everyone from economics students to heads of state.” —Lawrence H. Summers Something is wrong with our banking system. We all sense that, but Mervyn King knows it firsthand; his ten years at the helm of the Bank of England, including at the height of the financial crisis, revealed profound truths about the mechanisms of our capitalist society. In The End of Alchemy he offers us an essential work about the history and future of money and banking, the keys to modern finance. The Industrial Revolution built the foundation of our modern capitalist age. Yet the flowering of technological innovations during that dynamic period relied on the widespread adoption of two much older ideas: the creation of paper money and the invention of banks that issued credit. We take these systems for granted today, yet at their core both ideas were revolutionary and almost magical. Common paper became as precious as gold, and risky long-term loans were transformed into safe short-term bank deposits. As King argues, this is financial alchemy—the creation of extraordinary financial powers that defy reality and common sense. Faith in these powers has led to huge benefits; the liquidity they create has fueled economic growth for two centuries now. However, they have also produced an unending string of economic disasters, from hyperinflations to banking collapses to the recent global recession and current stagnation. How do we reconcile the potent strengths of these ideas with their inherent weaknesses? King draws on his unique experience to present fresh interpretations of these economic forces and to point the way forward for the global economy. His bold solutions cut through current overstuffed and needlessly complex legislation to provide a clear path to durable prosperity and the end of overreliance on the alchemy of our financial ancestors.

How We Learn

Author : Stanislas Dehaene
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0525559892
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (255 download)

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Book Synopsis How We Learn by : Stanislas Dehaene

Download or read book How We Learn written by Stanislas Dehaene and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2020-01-28 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “There are words that are so familiar they obscure rather than illuminate the thing they mean, and ‘learning’ is such a word. It seems so ordinary, everyone does it. Actually it’s more of a black box, which Dehaene cracks open to reveal the awesome secrets within.”--The New York Times Book Review An illuminating dive into the latest science on our brain's remarkable learning abilities and the potential of the machines we program to imitate them The human brain is an extraordinary learning machine. Its ability to reprogram itself is unparalleled, and it remains the best source of inspiration for recent developments in artificial intelligence. But how do we learn? What innate biological foundations underlie our ability to acquire new information, and what principles modulate their efficiency? In How We Learn, Stanislas Dehaene finds the boundary of computer science, neurobiology, and cognitive psychology to explain how learning really works and how to make the best use of the brain’s learning algorithms in our schools and universities, as well as in everyday life and at any age.

Sex Offender Laws

Author : Dr. Richard Wright
Publisher : Springer Publishing Company
ISBN 13 : 9780826111104
Total Pages : 552 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (111 download)

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Book Synopsis Sex Offender Laws by : Dr. Richard Wright

Download or read book Sex Offender Laws written by Dr. Richard Wright and published by Springer Publishing Company. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This volume of readings provides an excellent source of information about sex offender laws and policies."--International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology "Sex Offender Laws...is a good source for balanced, objective, and thorough critique of our current sex offender policies as well as a source for accurate information about a very heterogeneous population...The message that sexual abuse is often a multifaceted and complex issue and that policy based on quick fixes or knee jerk reactions do not often work will be informative and enlightening to many readers." --Sex Roles "[T]his fine book by Richard Wright and his distinguished collaborators provides the evidence that wise policy-makers would want to consider. It covers every major field of research concerning sex offenders and sexual offenses and provides evidence of bad practices and policiesÖ.Intellectually honest politicians should read this book." --Michael Tonry, LL.B, Professor of Law and Public Policy University of Minnesota Law School (From the Foreword) In response to many high-profile cases of sexual assault, federal and state governments have placed a number of unique criminal sanctions on sex offenders. These include residency restrictions, exclusionary zones, electronic monitoring, and chemical castration. However, the majority of sex offender policies are not based on empirical evidence, nor have they demonstrated any significant reductions in offender recidivism. In fact, some of these policies have unintended consequences, which actually increase the likelihood of sexual offenses. In this book, Wright critically analyzes existing policies, and assesses the most effective approaches in preventing sex offender recidivism. This provocative and timely book draws from the fields of criminal justice, law, forensic psychology, and social work to examine how current laws and policies are enacted and what to-date is known about their efficacy. The team of expert contributors includes Karen Terry, author of Sexual Offenses and Offenders, and others who bring a wealth of insight to the field of sex offense. In response to the failed policies of sex offender laws, this book presents alternative models and approaches to sex offense laws and policies. Wright also explores critical, cutting-edge topics, such as internet sexual solicitation, the death penalty, and community responses to sex offense. Key Features: An introduction and overview of the history of sex offender laws Analyzes the role of the media in sex offense and sex offender policies Examines the political "untouchability" of sex offender laws and their adverse effects Features interviews with victims of sexual assault, investigating their points of views on what kinds of reforms need to be made to sex offender laws Thought-provoking and insightful, Sex Offender Laws serves as a vital resource for policy makers, researchers, and students of criminal justice, law, and social work.

Radical Uncertainty

Author : John Kay
Publisher : National Geographic Books
ISBN 13 : 1324004770
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty by : John Kay

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty written by John Kay and published by National Geographic Books. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Other People's Money

Author : John Kay
Publisher : PublicAffairs
ISBN 13 : 1610396049
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Other People's Money by : John Kay

Download or read book Other People's Money written by John Kay and published by PublicAffairs. This book was released on 2015-09-22 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The finance sector of Western economies is too large and attracts too many of the smartest college graduates. Financialization over the past three decades has created a structure that lacks resilience and supports absurd volumes of trading. The finance sector devotes too little attention to the search for new investment opportunities and the stewardship of existing ones, and far too much to secondary-market dealing in existing assets. Regulation has contributed more to the problems than the solutions. Why? What is finance for? John Kay, with wide practical and academic experience in the world of finance, understands the operation of the financial sector better than most. He believes in good banks and effective asset managers, but good banks and effective asset managers are not what he sees. In a dazzling and revelatory tour of the financial world as it has emerged from the wreckage of the 2008 crisis, Kay does not flinch in his criticism: we do need some of the things that Citigroup and Goldman Sachs do, but we do not need Citigroup and Goldman to do them. And many of the things done by Citigroup and Goldman do not need to be done at all. The finance sector needs to be reminded of its primary purpose: to manage other people's money for the benefit of businesses and households. It is an aberration when the some of the finest mathematical and scientific minds are tasked with devising algorithms for the sole purpose of exploiting the weakness of other algorithms for computerized trading in securities. To travel further down that road leads to ruin. A Financial Times Book of the Year, 2015 An Economist Best Book of the Year, 2015 A Bloomberg Best Book of the Year, 2015

Contempt of Court

Author : Mark Curriden
Publisher : Anchor
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 440 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Contempt of Court by : Mark Curriden

Download or read book Contempt of Court written by Mark Curriden and published by Anchor. This book was released on 2001-02-20 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A look at a 1906 Supreme Court decision that transformed justice in America examines the case of Ed Johnson, an African American man accused of raping a white woman, his lynching, and the response of the Supreme Court.

The Irrational Economist

Author : Erwann Michel-Kerjan
Publisher : Public Affairs
ISBN 13 : 1586487809
Total Pages : 338 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (864 download)

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Book Synopsis The Irrational Economist by : Erwann Michel-Kerjan

Download or read book The Irrational Economist written by Erwann Michel-Kerjan and published by Public Affairs. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors explore how discoveries in decision sciences will enhance traditional ideas about economics and challenges the conventional wisdom about how to make the right decisions in an emerging new era, in a book that includes informative charts.

Model Rules of Professional Conduct

Author : American Bar Association. House of Delegates
Publisher : American Bar Association
ISBN 13 : 9781590318737
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (187 download)

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Book Synopsis Model Rules of Professional Conduct by : American Bar Association. House of Delegates

Download or read book Model Rules of Professional Conduct written by American Bar Association. House of Delegates and published by American Bar Association. This book was released on 2007 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Model Rules of Professional Conduct provides an up-to-date resource for information on legal ethics. Federal, state and local courts in all jurisdictions look to the Rules for guidance in solving lawyer malpractice cases, disciplinary actions, disqualification issues, sanctions questions and much more. In this volume, black-letter Rules of Professional Conduct are followed by numbered Comments that explain each Rule's purpose and provide suggestions for its practical application. The Rules will help you identify proper conduct in a variety of given situations, review those instances where discretionary action is possible, and define the nature of the relationship between you and your clients, colleagues and the courts.

Beyond Uncertainty

Author : Katie Steele
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108608043
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (86 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond Uncertainty by : Katie Steele

Download or read book Beyond Uncertainty written by Katie Steele and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-09-09 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main aim of this Element is to introduce the topic of limited awareness, and changes in awareness, to those interested in the philosophy of decision-making and uncertain reasoning. While it has long been of interest to economists and computer scientists, this topic has only recently been subject to philosophical investigation. Indeed, at first sight limited awareness seems to evade any systematic treatment: it is beyond the uncertainty that can be managed. On the one hand, an agent has no control over what contingencies she is and is not aware of at a given time, and any awareness growth takes her by surprise. On the other hand, agents apparently learn to identify the situations in which they are more and less likely to experience limited awareness and subsequent awareness growth. How can these two sides be reconciled? That is the puzzle we confront in this Element.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030052524
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.

Material Law

Author : John Brigham
Publisher : Temple University Press
ISBN 13 : 9781592139644
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (396 download)

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Book Synopsis Material Law by : John Brigham

Download or read book Material Law written by John Brigham and published by Temple University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-28 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Law is part of the process by which people construct their views of the world. In Material Law, distinguished scholar John Brigham focuses on the places where law and material life intersect, and how law creates and alters our social reality. Brigham looks at an eclectic group of bodies and things—from maps and territories and trends in courthouse architecture to a woman’s womb and a judge’s body—to make connections between the material and the legal. Theoretically sophisticated, and consistently fascinating, Material Law integrates law and society, political science, and popular culture in a truly interdisciplinary fashion. Brigham examines how the meaning of law is influenced by politics, reviewing, for example, whether the authority of global law supersedes that of national law in the context of Anglo-American cultural colonialism. What emerges is a well-reasoned look at how the authority of law constitutes what we see as real in our lives.