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Judgment And Decision Making Under Uncertainty Descriptive Normative And Prescriptive Perspectives
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Book Synopsis Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives by : David R. Mandel
Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Perspectives written by David R. Mandel and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2019-09-26 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Decision Making written by David E. Bell and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1988-10-28 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A compilation of different approaches--normative, descriptive,and prescriptive--develops this integrated analysis of decision-making that emphasizes the contributions of various disciplinary interests.
Book Synopsis Judgment and Decision Making by : Peter Juslin
Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making written by Peter Juslin and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2007-09-26 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research on human judgment and decision making has been strongly guided by a normative/descriptive approach, according to which human decision making is compared to the normative models provided by decision theory, statistics, and the probability calculus. A common empirical finding has been that human behavior deviates from the prescriptions by normative models--that judgments and decisions are subject to cognitive biases. It is interesting to note that Swedish research on judgment and decision making made an early departure from this dominating mainstream tradition, albeit in two different ways. The Neo-Brunswikian research highlights the relationship between the laboratory task and the adaptation to a natural environment. The process-tracing approach attempts to identify the cognitive processes before, during, and after a decision. This volume summarizes current Swedish research on judgment and decision making, covering topics, such as dynamic decision making, confidence research, the search for dominance structures and differentiation, and social decision making.
Book Synopsis Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making by : Derek J. Koehler
Download or read book Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making written by Derek J. Koehler and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 680 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Individual Expertise and Public Information on Group Decision-Making by : Ulrich G. Strunz
Download or read book The Impact of Individual Expertise and Public Information on Group Decision-Making written by Ulrich G. Strunz and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-07-04 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this open-access-book the author concludes that expertise could be the key factor for global and interconnected problems. Experimental results have shown that expertise was a stronger predictor than public information regarding change in behavior and strategy adaption. Identifying non-routine problem-solving experts by efficient online assessments could lead to less volatile system performance, from which all decision-makers could potentially profit.
Book Synopsis Judgment and Decision Making by : Baruch Fischhoff
Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making written by Baruch Fischhoff and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-17 with total page 405 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Behavioral decision research offers a distinctive approach to understanding and improving decision making. It combines theory and method from multiple disciples (psychology, economics, statistics, decision theory, management science). It employs both empirical methods, to study how decisions are actually made, and analytical ones, to study how decisions should be made and how consequential imperfections are. This book brings together key publications, selected to represent the major topics and approaches used in the field. Put in one place, with integrating commentary, it shows the common elements in a research program that represents the scope of the field, while offering depth in each. Together, they provide a vision for what has become a burgeoning field.
Book Synopsis Profiting From Uncertainty by : Paul Schoemaker
Download or read book Profiting From Uncertainty written by Paul Schoemaker and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2012-12-25 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity. Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty. More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that. This book was first published in 2002, well ahead of the mega turmoil that befell the world in 2008 and beyond. The methods and tools described here have been used by many companies and are even more relevant today than when originally published. You can’t do without them.
Book Synopsis Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis by : Adiel Teixeira de Almeida
Download or read book Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis written by Adiel Teixeira de Almeida and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-07-01 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book integrates multiple criteria concepts and methods for problems within the Risk, Reliability and Maintenance (RRM) context. The concepts and foundations related to RRM are considered for this integration with multicriteria approaches. In the book, a general framework for building decision models is presented and this is illustrated in various chapters by discussing many different decision models related to the RRM context. The scope of the book is related to ways of how to integrate Applied Probability and Decision Making. In Applied Probability, this mainly includes: decision analysis and reliability theory, amongst other topics closely related to risk analysis and maintenance. In Decision Making, it includes a broad range of topics in MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) and MCDA (Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding; also known as Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis). In addition to decision analysis, some of the topics related to Mathematical Programming area are briefly considered, such as multiobjective optimization, since methods related to these topics have been applied to the context of RRM. The book addresses an innovative treatment for the decision making in RRM, thereby improving the integration of fundamental concepts from the areas of both RRM and decision making. This is accomplished by presenting an overview of the literature on decision making in RRM. Some pitfalls of decision models when applying them to RRM in practice are discussed and guidance on overcoming these drawbacks is offered. The procedure enables multicriteria models to be built for the RRM context, including guidance on choosing an appropriate multicriteria method for a particular problem faced in the RRM context. The book also includes many research advances in these topics. Most of the multicriteria decision models that are described are specific applications that have been influenced by this research and the advances in this field. Multicriteria and Multiobjective Models for Risk, Reliability and Maintenance Decision Analysis is implicitly structured in three parts, with 12 chapters. The first part deals with MCDM/A concepts methods and decision processes. The second part presents the main concepts and foundations of RRM. Finally the third part deals with specific decision problems in the RRM context approached with MCDM/A models.
Book Synopsis Judgment and Decision Making by : Terry Connolly
Download or read book Judgment and Decision Making written by Terry Connolly and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 814 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work examines issues such as medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labour negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision-making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
Book Synopsis Emerging Perspectives on Judgment and Decision Research by : Sandra L. Schneider
Download or read book Emerging Perspectives on Judgment and Decision Research written by Sandra L. Schneider and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2003-06-16 with total page 740 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Table of contents
Book Synopsis Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty by : Mark Machina
Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty written by Mark Machina and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-11-14 with total page 896 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Book Synopsis Rational Choice in an Uncertain World by : Reid Hastie
Download or read book Rational Choice in an Uncertain World written by Reid Hastie and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 2009-11-17 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The authors are highly respected as leading figures in the field of judgment and decision making. There are many existing books on topics related to judgment and decision making, but this book makes a unique contribution to this field because of its systematic and scholarly approach, and its breadth of coverage." —Robert Goldstone, Indiana University "Reid Hastie and Robyn Dawes are two of the most eminent researchers in the field. I know these authors to be excellent writers and I have no doubt that their writing style will be suitable for my students." —William Goldstein, University of Chicago In the new edition of this award-winning text, renowned authors Reid Hastie and Robyn Dawes compare and contrast the basic principles of rationality with actual behavior in making decisions. This book explores theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. New to This Edition Chapter introductions, conclusions, and cross-references between chapters make the text more student friendly An abundance of examples from areas such as finance, medicine, law, and engineering anchor concepts to the real world Increased consideration of descriptive, psychological models of decision making augment the original emphasis on normative, rational, "Expected Utility Theory" models, bring the book up to date Balance among the three major approaches to judgment and decision making: cognitive psychological analyses of mental processes and heuristics, descriptive algebraic models of judgment and decision processes, and rational models of decision making
Download or read book Decision Making written by David E. Bell and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Winning Decisions by : J. Edward Russo
Download or read book Winning Decisions written by J. Edward Russo and published by Currency. This book was released on 2001-12-26 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Business revolves around making decisions, often risky decisions, usually with incomplete information and too often in less time than we need. Executives at every level, in every industry, are confronted with information overload, less leeway for mistakes, and a business environment that changes rapidly. In light of this increased pressure and volatility, the old-fashioned ways of making decisions–depending on intuition, common sense, and specialized expertise–are simply no longer sufficient. Distilling over thirty years of groundbreaking research, Winning Decisions, written by two seasoned business advisers and world leaders in behavioral decision studies, is a comprehensive, one-of-a-kind guide to the proven methods of making critical business decisions confidently, quickly–and correctly. Decision-making is a business skill which managers often take for granted in themselves and others–but it's not as easy as some might think. The authors, whose expertise has been sought out by over a hundred companies, including Arthur Andersen, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, and Unilever, contend that decision-making, like any other skill, must be developed and honed if it is to be used effectively. Winning Decisions offers step-by-step analyses of how people typically make decisions, and provides invaluable advice on how to improve your chances of getting your next big decision right the first time. The book is packed with worksheets, tools, questionnaires, case studies, and anecdotes analyzing major decisions made by organizations like British Airways, NASA, Shell Oil, and Pepsi. Some of the proven, straightforward techniques covered in Winning Decisions include how to: Reframe issues to ensure that the real problem is being addressedImprove the quality and quantity of your options Convert expert yet conflicting opinions into useful insights Make diversity of views and conflict work to your advantage Foster efficient and effective group decision-making Learn from past decisions--your own and those of others With Winning Decisions, managers and other professionals now have access to a proven set of skills and strategies they need for making the right decision, right away.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Book Synopsis Rational Choice in an Uncertain World by : Reid Hastie
Download or read book Rational Choice in an Uncertain World written by Reid Hastie and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2001-04-13 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First Edition, Winner of the prestigious William James Award from the American Psychological Association An understanding of the principles of rational decision making can help students improve the quality of their lives. Intended as an introductory textbook, the material in Rational Choice in an Uncertain World is not only of scholarly interest, but practical as well. Created specifically for courses on judgement and decision-making, this book makes research readily accessible to both undergraduate and graduate students. This Second Edition of the award-winning book, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World (1988) by Robyn M. Dawes, is sure to interest and enlighten students at all levels. This new edition features: · New student friendly chapter introductions as well as conclusions and cross-references between chapters. · Award-winning authors are respected professors with over 30 years of experience in the field. · Practical, everyday examples from such areas as finance, medicine, law, and engineering. · Comprehensive and up-to-date information keep this edition abreast of the changing ideas within the discipline · Additional discussion of the descriptive, psychological models of decision making to expand upon the original emphasis on normative, rational, `Expected Utility Theory′ models. Equipped with this knowledge and an understanding of the principles of rational decision making, both undergraduate and graduate students can help improve the quality of their choices and, thus, their life.
Book Synopsis Professional Judgment by : Jack Dowie
Download or read book Professional Judgment written by Jack Dowie and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1988-01-14 with total page 584 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent debate in both Europe and North America has focussed on how clinicians make judgments and decisions, how these may be evaluated and how they could be improved. This volume provides students, teachers and practitioners with a comprehensive introduction to the main descriptive and prescriptive approaches to judgment and decision making in clinical medicine. The contributors, who include psychologists, economists, decision theorists, statisticians, lawyers and sociologists, as well as medical specialists, provide examples of recent empirical research and its applications, as well as outlining the relevant concepts and theories. Policy-capturing models, data-based aids, expert ('knowledg-based') systems and decision analysis are the main techniques introduced, with attention to both their methodological bases and practical evaluation. Also included in the collection are a series of papers which consider the economic, ethical and legal contexts of clinical activity and the education and wider socialization of clinicians. Issues surrounding the 'cost-effective' use of resources, the obtaining of 'informed consent' from patients and ethical behaviour under uncertainty are highlighted.
