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The Puzzle Of Persistently Negative Interest Rate Growth Differentials
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Book Synopsis The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials by : Mr.Julio Escolano
Download or read book The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest Rate-Growth Differentials written by Mr.Julio Escolano and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-11-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The interest rate-growth differential (IRGD) shows a marked correlation with GDP per capita. It has been on average around 1 percentage point for large advanced economies during 1999-2008; but below -7 percentage points among non-advanced economies - exerting a powerful stabilizing influence on government debt ratios. We show that large negative IRGDs are largely due to real interest rates well below market equilibrium - possibly stemming from financial repression and captive and distorted markets, whereas the income catch-up process plays a relatively modest role. We find econometric support for this conjecture. Therefore, the IRGD in non-advanced economies is likely to rise with financial integration and market development, well before their GDP per capita converges to advanced-economy levels.
Book Synopsis Interes-growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies by : Philip Barrett
Download or read book Interes-growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies written by Philip Barrett and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do persistently low nominal interest rates mean that governments can safely borrow more? To addresses this question, I extend the model of Ghosh et al. [2013] to allow for persistent stochastic changes in nominal interest and growth rates. The key model parameter is the long-run difference between nominal interest and growth rates; if negative, maximum sustainable debts (debt limits) are unbounded. I show how both VAR- and spectral-based methods produce negative point estimates of this long-run differential, but cannot reject positive values at standard significance levels. I calibrate the model to the UK using positive but statistically plausible average interest-growth differentials. This produces debt limits which increase by only around 5% GDP as interest rates fall after 2008. In contrast, only a tiny change in the long-run average interest-growth differential – from the 95th to the 97.5th percentile of the distribution – is required to move average debt limits by the same amount.
Book Synopsis Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies by : Philip Barrett
Download or read book Interest-Growth Differentials and Debt Limits in Advanced Economies written by Philip Barrett and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Do persistently low nominal interest rates mean that governments can safely borrow more? To addresses this question, I extend the model of Ghosh et al. [2013] to allow for persistent stochastic changes in nominal interest and growth rates. The key model parameter is the long-run difference between nominal interest and growth rates; if negative, maximum sustainable debts (debt limits) are unbounded. I show how both VAR- and spectral-based methods produce negative point estimates of this long-run differential, but cannot reject positive values at standard significance levels. I calibrate the model to the UK using positive but statistically plausible average interest-growth differentials. This produces debt limits which increase by only around 5% GDP as interest rates fall after 2008. In contrast, only a tiny change in the long-run average interest-growth differential – from the 95th to the 97.5th percentile of the distribution – is required to move average debt limits by the same amount.
Book Synopsis Caribbean Renewal by : Charles Amo Yartey
Download or read book Caribbean Renewal written by Charles Amo Yartey and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-06 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Caribbean economies face high and rising debt-to-GDP ratios that jeopardize prospects for medium-term debt sustainability and growth. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges of fiscal consolidation and debt reduction in the Caribbean. It examines the problem of high debt in the region and discusses policy options for improving debt sustainability, including fiscal consolidation, robust growth, and structural reforms. The book also examines empirically the factors underlying global large debt reduction episodes to draw important policy lessons for the Caribbean. It also reviews the literature on successful fiscal consolidation experiences and provides an overview of past and current consolidation efforts in the Caribbean. The book concludes that the region needs a broad and sustained package of reforms to reduce debt ratios to more manageable levels and strengthen economic resilience.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Sustainability by : Mr.Evan Tanner
Download or read book Fiscal Sustainability written by Mr.Evan Tanner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-22 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro’s 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.
Book Synopsis Debt Is Not Free by : Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia
Download or read book Debt Is Not Free written by Ms.Marialuz Moreno Badia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-03 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With public debt soaring across the world, a growing concern is whether current debt levels are a harbinger of fiscal crises, thereby restricting the policy space in a downturn. The empirical evidence to date is however inconclusive, and the true cost of debt may be overstated if interest rates remain low. To shed light into this debate, this paper re-examines the importance of public debt as a leading indicator of fiscal crises using machine learning techniques to account for complex interactions previously ignored in the literature. We find that public debt is the most important predictor of crises, showing strong non-linearities. Moreover, beyond certain debt levels, the likelihood of crises increases sharply regardless of the interest-growth differential. Our analysis also reveals that the interactions of public debt with inflation and external imbalances can be as important as debt levels. These results, while not necessarily implying causality, show governments should be wary of high public debt even when borrowing costs seem low.
Book Synopsis Handbook of the Economics and Political Economy of Transition by : Paul Hare
Download or read book Handbook of the Economics and Political Economy of Transition written by Paul Hare and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-05-02 with total page 528 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Transition from central planning to a market economy, involving large-scale institutional change and reforms at all levels, is often described as the greatest social science experiment in modern times. As more than two decades have passed since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is now an excellent time to take stock of how the transition process has turned out for the economies that have moved on from socialism and the command economy. This new handbook assembles a team of leading experts, many of whom were closely involved in the transition process as policymakers and policy advisors, to explore the major themes that have characterized the transition process. After identifying the nature of initial conditions and the strengths and weaknesses of institutions, the varying paths and reforms countries have taken are fully analyzed – from the shock therapy, privatization or gradualism of the early years to the burning issues of the present including global integration and sustainable growth. Topics covered include the socialist system pre-transition, economic reforms, institutions, the political economy of transition, performance and growth, enterprise restructuring, and people and transition. The country coverage is also extensive, from the former socialist countries of the USSR and the satellite states of Central and Eastern Europe to the Asian countries of China, Vietnam and others. The rise of China as a key actor in the drama is chronicled, along with the emergence of a new, more confident, oil-rich Russia. The comparative prosperity of the Central European countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic is contrasted with the mixed fortunes of the former USSR, where some countries are stagnating while others boom. This Handbook of the Economics and Political Economy of Transition is the definitive guide to this new order of things in the former Communist world.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Post-crisis Fiscal Policy by : Carlo Cottarelli
Download or read book Post-crisis Fiscal Policy written by Carlo Cottarelli and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-06-27 with total page 575 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Fiscal policy makers have faced an extraordinarily challenging environment over the last few years. At the outset of the global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first time advocated a fiscal expansion across all countries able to afford it, a seeming departure from the long-held consensus among economists that monetary policy rather than fiscal policy was the appropriate response to fluctuations in economic activity. Since then, the IMF has emphasized that the speed of fiscal adjustment should be determined by the specific circumstances in each country. Its recommendation that deficit reduction proceed steadily, but gradually, positions the IMF between the fiscal doves (who argue for postponing fiscal adjustment altogether) and the fiscal hawks (who argue for a front-loaded adjustment). This volume brings together the analysis underpinning the IMF's position on the evolving role of fiscal policy. After establishing its analytical foundation, with chapters on such topics as fiscal risk and debt dynamics, the book analyzes the buildup of fiscal vulnerabilities before the crisis, presents the policy response during the crisis, discusses the fiscal outlook and policy challenges ahead, and offers lessons learned from the crisis and its aftermath. Topics discussed include a historical view of debt accumulation; the timing, size, and composition of fiscal stimulus packages in advanced and emerging economies; the heated debate surrounding the size of fiscal multipliers and the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a countercyclical tool; coordination of fiscal and monetary policies; the sovereign debt crisis in Europe; and institutional reform aimed at fostering fiscal discipline."--Publisher's description.
Book Synopsis Public Debt and R - G at Risk by : Andrea Presbitero
Download or read book Public Debt and R - G at Risk written by Andrea Presbitero and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As interest rate-growth differentials (r-g) turned negative in many countries, governments consider pursuing fiscal expansion and the potential risks involved. Using a large sample of advanced and emerging economies, our analysis suggests that high public debts can lead to adverse future r-g dynamics. Specifically, countries with higher initial public debt experience (i) a shorter duration of negative r-g episodes and a higher probability of reversal, (ii) higher average r-g, and (iii) a more right-skewed r-g distribution, that implies higher downside risks. Furthermore, high-debt countries experience larger increases in interest rates in response to (iv) an unexpected decline in domestic output and (v) an increase of global volatility. Results are stronger when public debts are denominated in foreign currencies.
Book Synopsis The Liquidation of Government Debt by : Ms.Carmen Reinhart
Download or read book The Liquidation of Government Debt written by Ms.Carmen Reinhart and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-01-21 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads by : Nazim Belhocine
Download or read book The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads written by Nazim Belhocine and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do financial markets respond to concerns over debt sustainability and the level of public debt in emerging markets? We introduce a measure of debt sustainability – the difference between the debt stabilizing primary balance and the primary balance–in an otherwise standard spread regression model applied to a panel of 26 emerging market economies. We find that debt sustainability is an important determinant of spreads. In addition, using a panel smooth transition regression model, we find that the sensitivity of spreads to debt sustainability doubles as public debt increases above 45 percent of GDP. These results suggest that market interest rates react more to debt sustainability concerns in a country with a high level of debt compared to a country with a low level of debt.
Book Synopsis Cracking the China Conundrum by : Yukon Huang
Download or read book Cracking the China Conundrum written by Yukon Huang and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-06-22 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's rise is altering global power relations, reshaping economic debates, and commanding tremendous public attention. Despite extensive media and academic scrutiny, the conventional wisdom about China's economy is often wrong. Cracking the China Conundrum provides a holistic and contrarian view of China's major economic, political, and foreign policy issues. Yukon Huang trenchantly addresses widely accepted yet misguided views in the analysis of China's economy. He examines arguments about the causes and effects of China's possible debt and property market bubbles, trade and investment relations with the Western world, the links between corruption and political liberalization in a growing economy and Beijing's more assertive foreign policies. Huang explains that such misconceptions arise in part because China's economic system is unprecedented in many ways-namely because it's driven by both the market and state- which complicates the task of designing accurate and adaptable analysis and research. Further, China's size, regional diversity, and uniquely decentralized administrative system poses difficulties for making generalizations and comparisons from micro to macro levels when trying to interpret China's economic state accurately. This book not only interprets the ideologies that experts continue building misguided theories upon, but also examines the contributing factors to this puzzle. Cracking the China Conundrum provides an enlightening and corrective viewpoint on several major economic and political foreign policy concerns currently shaping China's economic environment.
Book Synopsis Annual Report by : State Bank of Pakistan
Download or read book Annual Report written by State Bank of Pakistan and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Author :International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475559224 Total Pages :106 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis Ireland by : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Download or read book Ireland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-12-19 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement discusses Ireland’s fiscal policy, financial reforms, economic growth, and employment. The policy implementation of Ireland continued to remain strong, even though the country has been susceptible to global financial shocks. Ireland’s steadfast policy implementation has helped access to market funding; however, public debt continued to remain high. The authorities have been finalizing a consolidation package for 2013, with measures that are durable, equitable, and as growth-friendly as possible.
Book Synopsis Benign Neglect of the Long-term Interest Rate by : Philip Turner
Download or read book Benign Neglect of the Long-term Interest Rate written by Philip Turner and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Large-scale central bank purchases of government bonds have made the long-term interest rate key in the monetary policy debate. How central banks react to bond market movements has varied greatly from one episode to another. Driving the term premium in long-term rates negative may stimulate aggregate demand. And a negative term premium encourages borrowers to lengthen the maturity of their debts. Such a reduction in maturity risks makes the financial system more resilient to shocks, and in particular can help emerging economies finance their heavy infrastructure and housing investment needs more safely. But an extended period of very low long rates and high public debt creates financial stability risks. Interest rate risk in the banking system has grown, and some institutional investors face significant exposures. Central banks in the advanced economies now hold a high proportion of bonds issued by their governments, most of which have so far failed to arrest the rise in the ratio of government debt to GDP. Implementing an effective exit strategy will be difficult. Current policy frameworks should be reconsidered, with a view to clarifying the importance of the long-term interest rate for monetary policy, for financial stability and for government debt management."- -Abstract.
