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The Prediction
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Download or read book Prediction written by Daniel R. Sarewitz and published by . This book was released on 2000-04 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based upon ten case studies, Prediction explores how science-based predictions guide policy making and what this means in terms of global warming, biogenetically modifying organisms and polluting the environment with chemicals.
Book Synopsis Prediction, Learning, and Games by : Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi
Download or read book Prediction, Learning, and Games written by Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-03-13 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.
Book Synopsis Science Fiction and the Prediction of the Future by : Gary Westfahl
Download or read book Science Fiction and the Prediction of the Future written by Gary Westfahl and published by McFarland. This book was released on 2014-01-10 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Science fiction has always challenged readers with depictions of the future. Can the genre actually provide glimpses of the world of tomorrow? This collection of fifteen international and interdisciplinary essays examines the genre's predictions and breaks new ground by considering the prophetic functions of science fiction films as well as SF literature. Among the texts and topics examined are classic stories by Murray Leinster, C. L. Moore, and Cordwainer Smith; 2001: A Space Odyssey and its sequels, Japanese anime and Hong Kong cinema; and electronic fiction.
Download or read book The Prediction written by Darren Sugrue and published by KDC Publishing. This book was released on 2013-06-30 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: **Amazon Best Seller!** Reached #4 in Thrillers & Suspense ★★★★★ 'A captivating page-turner.' DOUGLAS WOLFE Nobody knows the day they’ll die… until now. Mathematical genius Daniel Geller has developed a formula to predict a person’s date of death, only to have it rejected by the faculty at Trinity College. Totally devastated he turns his back on the world he once loved. Twelve years on, Daniel’s old professor John Redmond and his wife are coming to terms with the death of their ten-year-old son. Could Daniel's formula have predicated his death? Revisiting the thesis, the professor makes an astonishing discovery: out of the five fellow students whom Daniel used the formula on, one of them died on the exact date he predicted. One more is due to die in six days: Daniel’s ex-lover Grace. The professor draws Daniel back into the world of mathematics where he is suddenly faced with the dilemma of allowing someone he once loved to die to be one step closer to proving his thesis and enjoying a prestige he once dreamed of… Set in the vibrant cities of Dublin and Amsterdam, The Prediction is a powerful story about coping with shattered dreams, the loss of a loved one, and an illustration of just how unpredictable the human heart can be. ____________________________________________ PRAISE FOR THE PREDICTION: 'Once you get hooked, you won't want to put the book down.' ALLISON JAMES 'There is something brilliant and enticing about a novel where one of the central conflicts is that you very much want for two mutually exclusive things to happen.' ANNE DOUCETTE 'I loved this book! It was emotionally intense, suspenseful, and so very touching and beautiful at the end. I cannot remember the last time a book brought me to tears...' JUDY SCHECHTER 'First Time Author Darren Sugrue hits the mark with a 5 star novel... This book is awesome.' L. FRIER 'The ending twist was just genius... I feel this is one of the few books anyone would enjoy no matter whether you are a romantic, thriller, horror or sci-fi reader.' GADGET GIRL REVIEWS 'Filled with suspense, peppered with a bit of romance and softened by tragedy, it is one of the best crime novels I have ever read... You will not hear this from me very often: this is a must-read! Readers of all genres, unite!' ANCA, REVIEWS WITH A TWIST BLOG 'Heart pounding suspense, lost love, regret, lost, murder, betrayal, it’s all there. Mind blowing plot twists that you have to pause to process... Drop everything, send the kids outside. This is an incredible read.' DOSEOFBELLA 'You really could not ask for more in a book. It is so well written it is hard to believe that this is Darren Sugrue's first book.' ANGIE, READAHOLIC ZONE 'The story is well written, moves at a good pace, with well-developed characters and a twist I really didn’t see coming.' JAMES WALSH
Book Synopsis The Prediction of Speed and Power of Ships by Methods in Use at the United States Experimental Model Basin, Washington by : Harold Eugene Saunders
Download or read book The Prediction of Speed and Power of Ships by Methods in Use at the United States Experimental Model Basin, Washington written by Harold Eugene Saunders and published by . This book was released on 1933 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Memory as Prediction by : Tomaso Vecchi
Download or read book Memory as Prediction written by Tomaso Vecchi and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Theoretical reflections on memory and prediction, linking these concepts to the role of the cerebellum in higher cognition. What is memory? What is memory for? Where is memory in the brain? Although memory is probably the most studied function in cognition, these fundamental questions remain challenging. We can try to answer the question of memory's purpose by defining the function of memory as remembering the past. And yet this definition is not consistent with the many errors that characterize our memory, or with the phylogenetic and ontogenetic origin of memory. In this book, Tomaso Vecchi and Daniele Gatti argue that the purpose of memory is not to remember the past but to predict the future. Vecchi and Gatti link memory and prediction to the role of the cerebellum in higher cognition, relying on recent empirical data to support theoretical reflections. They propose a new model of memory functions that comprises a system devoted to prediction, based in the cerebellum and mediated by the hippocampus, and a parallel system with a major role for cortical structures and mediated by the amygdala. Although memory is often conceived as a kind of storehouse, this storehouse is constantly changing, integrating new information in a continual process of modification. In order to explain these characteristics, Vecchi and Gatti argue, we must change our interpretation of the nature and functions of the memory system.
Book Synopsis Financial Statement Analysis and the Prediction of Financial Distress by : William H. Beaver
Download or read book Financial Statement Analysis and the Prediction of Financial Distress written by William H. Beaver and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2011 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Statement Analysis and the Prediction of Financial Distress discusses the evolution of three main streams within the financial distress prediction literature: the set of dependent and explanatory variables used, the statistical methods of estimation, and the modeling of financial distress. Section 1 discusses concepts of financial distress. Section 2 discusses theories regarding the use of financial ratios as predictors of financial distress. Section 3 contains a brief review of the literature. Section 4 discusses the use of market price-based models of financial distress. Section 5 develops the statistical methods for empirical estimation of the probability of financial distress. Section 6 discusses the major empirical findings with respect to prediction of financial distress. Section 7 briefly summarizes some of the more relevant literature with respect to bond ratings. Section 8 presents some suggestions for future research and Section 9 presents concluding remarks.
Book Synopsis Time Series Prediction by : Andreas S. Weigend
Download or read book Time Series Prediction written by Andreas S. Weigend and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-05-04 with total page 665 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book is a summary of a time series forecasting competition that was held a number of years ago. It aims to provide a snapshot of the range of new techniques that are used to study time series, both as a reference for experts and as a guide for novices.
Book Synopsis Demand Prediction in Retail by : Maxime C. Cohen
Download or read book Demand Prediction in Retail written by Maxime C. Cohen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-01-01 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From data collection to evaluation and visualization of prediction results, this book provides a comprehensive overview of the process of predicting demand for retailers. Each step is illustrated with the relevant code and implementation details to demystify how historical data can be leveraged to predict future demand. The tools and methods presented can be applied to most retail settings, both online and brick-and-mortar, such as fashion, electronics, groceries, and furniture. This book is intended to help students in business analytics and data scientists better master how to leverage data for predicting demand in retail applications. It can also be used as a guide for supply chain practitioners who are interested in predicting demand. It enables readers to understand how to leverage data to predict future demand, how to clean and pre-process the data to make it suitable for predictive analytics, what the common caveats are in terms of implementation and how to assess prediction accuracy.
Book Synopsis Clinical Prediction Models by : Ewout W. Steyerberg
Download or read book Clinical Prediction Models written by Ewout W. Steyerberg and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-07-22 with total page 558 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second edition of this volume provides insight and practical illustrations on how modern statistical concepts and regression methods can be applied in medical prediction problems, including diagnostic and prognostic outcomes. Many advances have been made in statistical approaches towards outcome prediction, but a sensible strategy is needed for model development, validation, and updating, such that prediction models can better support medical practice. There is an increasing need for personalized evidence-based medicine that uses an individualized approach to medical decision-making. In this Big Data era, there is expanded access to large volumes of routinely collected data and an increased number of applications for prediction models, such as targeted early detection of disease and individualized approaches to diagnostic testing and treatment. Clinical Prediction Models presents a practical checklist that needs to be considered for development of a valid prediction model. Steps include preliminary considerations such as dealing with missing values; coding of predictors; selection of main effects and interactions for a multivariable model; estimation of model parameters with shrinkage methods and incorporation of external data; evaluation of performance and usefulness; internal validation; and presentation formatting. The text also addresses common issues that make prediction models suboptimal, such as small sample sizes, exaggerated claims, and poor generalizability. The text is primarily intended for clinical epidemiologists and biostatisticians. Including many case studies and publicly available R code and data sets, the book is also appropriate as a textbook for a graduate course on predictive modeling in diagnosis and prognosis. While practical in nature, the book also provides a philosophical perspective on data analysis in medicine that goes beyond predictive modeling. Updates to this new and expanded edition include: • A discussion of Big Data and its implications for the design of prediction models • Machine learning issues • More simulations with missing ‘y’ values • Extended discussion on between-cohort heterogeneity • Description of ShinyApp • Updated LASSO illustration • New case studies
Book Synopsis The Economics of Artificial Intelligence by : Ajay Agrawal
Download or read book The Economics of Artificial Intelligence written by Ajay Agrawal and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2024-03-05 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely investigation of the potential economic effects, both realized and unrealized, of artificial intelligence within the United States healthcare system. In sweeping conversations about the impact of artificial intelligence on many sectors of the economy, healthcare has received relatively little attention. Yet it seems unlikely that an industry that represents nearly one-fifth of the economy could escape the efficiency and cost-driven disruptions of AI. The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: Health Care Challenges brings together contributions from health economists, physicians, philosophers, and scholars in law, public health, and machine learning to identify the primary barriers to entry of AI in the healthcare sector. Across original papers and in wide-ranging responses, the contributors analyze barriers of four types: incentives, management, data availability, and regulation. They also suggest that AI has the potential to improve outcomes and lower costs. Understanding both the benefits of and barriers to AI adoption is essential for designing policies that will affect the evolution of the healthcare system.
Book Synopsis Prediction in Second Language Processing and Learning by : Edith Kaan
Download or read book Prediction in Second Language Processing and Learning written by Edith Kaan and published by John Benjamins Publishing Company. This book was released on 2021-09-15 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is ample evidence that language users, including second-language (L2) users, can predict upcoming information during listening and reading. Yet it is still unclear when, how, and why language users engage in prediction, and what the relation is between prediction and learning. This volume presents a collection of current research, insights, and directions regarding the role of prediction in L2 processing and learning. The contributions in this volume specifically address how different (L1-based) theoretical models of prediction apply to or may be expanded to account for L2 processing, report new insights on factors (linguistic, cognitive, social) that modulate L2 users’ engagement in prediction, and discuss the functions that prediction may or may not serve in L2 processing and learning. Taken together, this volume illustrates various fruitful approaches to investigating and accounting for differences in predictive processing within and across individuals, as well as across populations.
Book Synopsis Probably Not by : Lawrence N. Dworsky
Download or read book Probably Not written by Lawrence N. Dworsky and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2019-09-04 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A revised edition that explores random numbers, probability, and statistical inference at an introductory mathematical level Written in an engaging and entertaining manner, the revised and updated second edition of Probably Not continues to offer an informative guide to probability and prediction. The expanded second edition contains problem and solution sets. In addition, the book’s illustrative examples reveal how we are living in a statistical world, what we can expect, what we really know based upon the information at hand and explains when we only think we know something. The author introduces the principles of probability and explains probability distribution functions. The book covers combined and conditional probabilities and contains a new section on Bayes Theorem and Bayesian Statistics, which features some simple examples including the Presecutor’s Paradox, and Bayesian vs. Frequentist thinking about statistics. New to this edition is a chapter on Benford’s Law that explores measuring the compliance and financial fraud detection using Benford’s Law. This book: Contains relevant mathematics and examples that demonstrate how to use the concepts presented Features a new chapter on Benford’s Law that explains why we find Benford’s law upheld in so many, but not all, natural situations Presents updated Life insurance tables Contains updates on the Gantt Chart example that further develops the discussion of random events Offers a companion site featuring solutions to the problem sets within the book Written for mathematics and statistics students and professionals, the updated edition of Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference, Second Edition combines the mathematics of probability with real-world examples. LAWRENCE N. DWORSKY, PhD, is a retired Vice President of the Technical Staff and Director of Motorola’s Components Research Laboratory in Schaumburg, Illinois, USA. He is the author of Introduction to Numerical Electrostatics Using MATLAB from Wiley.
Download or read book Portfolio Society written by Ivan Ascher and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2016-09-02 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A bold extension of Marx's Capital for the twenty-first century: at once a critique of modern finance and of the societies under its spell. As financial markets expand and continue to refashion the world in their own image, the wealth of capitalist societies no longer presents itself, as it did to Karl Marx in the nineteenth century, as a “monstrous collection of commodities.” Instead, it appears as an equally monstrous collection of financial securities, and the critique of political economy must proceed accordingly. But what would it mean to write Capital in the twenty-first century? Are we really to believe that risk, rather than labor, is now regarded as the true fount of economic value? Can it truly be the case that the credit relation—at least in the global North—has replaced the wage relation as the key site of exploitation and political struggle? And finally, if precarity is indeed the name of today's proletarian condition, what possible future does it actually portend, what analysis does it require? Through a series of creative substitutions, in Portfolio Society Ivan Ascherextends Marx's critical project in bold and unexpected ways. Ascher not only explains some of the often mystifying processes of contemporary finance, he also invites us to consider what becomes of capitalism itself in those places where the relation of capital to its own future is now mediated by financial markets. In the end, we may find that much has changed and much has not; relations of domination endure, and mystifications abound, but the devil is in the details, and that is where Ascher directs our attention. At once a critique of modern finance and of the societies under its spell, Portfolio Society succeeds in revealing the potential limits of Capital, while reveling still in its limitless potential.
Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock
Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 331 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
Book Synopsis Filtering and Prediction: A Primer by : Bert Fristedt
Download or read book Filtering and Prediction: A Primer written by Bert Fristedt and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on 2007 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Filtering and prediction is about observing moving objects when the observations are corrupted by random errors. The main focus is then on filtering out the errors and extracting from the observations the most precise information about the object, which itself may or may not be moving in a somewhat random fashion. Next comes the prediction step where, using information about the past behavior of the object, one tries to predict its future path. The first three chapters of the book deal with discrete probability spaces, random variables, conditioning, Markov chains, and filtering of discrete Markov chains. The next three chapters deal with the more sophisticated notions of conditioning in nondiscrete situations, filtering of continuous-space Markov chains, and of Wiener process. Filtering and prediction of stationary sequences is discussed in the last two chapters. The authors believe that they have succeeded in presenting necessary ideas in an elementary manner without sacrificing the rigor too much. Such rigorous treatment is lacking at this level in the literature. in the past few years the material in the book was offered as a one-semester undergraduate/beginning graduate course at the University of Minnesota. Some of the many problems suggested in the text were used in homework assignments.
Book Synopsis Fate & Prediction by : Fred Gettings
Download or read book Fate & Prediction written by Fred Gettings and published by . This book was released on 1980 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
