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The Great Moderation In The Euro Area
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Book Synopsis The Great Moderation in the Euro Area by : Laura González Cabanillas
Download or read book The Great Moderation in the Euro Area written by Laura González Cabanillas and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most OECD countries have experienced a sharp reduction in the volatility of output and inflation over the past three decades. Although this great moderation process has stirred considerable interest in economic and policy circles, research on its causes has so far tended to focus on the US economy and has produced relatively little empirical evidence on the euro area or other non-US OECD countries. This paper contributes to fill in the gap by providing a euro-area view of the great moderation process and by assessing the euro-area experience against developments in other OECD countries. Its main focus is on the possible role of macroeconomic policies. After reviewing a set of key stylised facts of the fall in output growth volatility in the euro area, the paper discusses the possible channels through which economic policies may have contributed to the great moderation and presents the results of an econometric panel analysis of the determinants of output growth volatility. Its main conclusion is that the great moderation is not just the result of a long period of luck in the form of milder shocks but can also partly be ascribed to changes in economic policies, in particular improvements in the conduct of monetary policy and, to a lesser extent, more powerful automatic fiscal stabilisers. In particular, reflecting considerably worse starting positions, improvements in the conduct of monetary policies have been much larger in several Member States than in the US over the past three decades, bringing larger gains in terms of output stability. To a lesser degree, stronger automatic stabilisers also seem to have contributed to the moderation of output fluctuations in some euro-area countries.
Download or read book Europe in Crisis written by Ivan Berend and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-11-12 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyzes the European Great Recession of 2008-12, its economic and social causes, its historical roots, and the policies adopted by the European Union to find a way out of it. It contains explicit debates with several economists and analysts on some of the most controversial questions about the causes of the crisis and the policies applied by the European Union. It presents the cases of Iceland, Greece and Ireland, the countries that first declined into crisis in Europe, each of them in a different way. Iceland is a case study for reckless banking practices, Greece of reckless public spending, and Ireland of reckless household indebtedness. At least seven other countries, mostly from the peripheries of Europe, had similarly reckless banking and spending practices. In the center of the book are the economic and social causes of the crisis. Contemporary advanced capitalism became financialized, de-industrialized and globalized and got rid of the "straitjacket" of regulations. Solid banking was replaced by high-risk, "casino-type" activity. The European common currency also had a structural problem — monetary unification without a federal state and fiscal unification. The other side of the same coin is European hyper-consumerism. A new lifestyle emerged during two super-prosperous periods in the 1950s to 1960s, and during the 1990s to 2006. Trying to find an exit policy, the European Union turned to strict austerity measures to curb the budget deficit and indebtedness. This book critically analyzes the debate around austerity policy. The creation of important supra-national institutions, and of a financial supervisory authority and stability mechanisms, strengthens integration. The correction of the euro’s structural mistake by creating a quasi-fiscal unification is even more important. The introduction of mandatory fiscal rules and their supervision promises a long-term solution for a well-functioning common currency. These measures, meanwhile, create a two-tier European Union with a fast-track core. This book suggests that the European Union will emerge stronger from the crisis. This book will be of particular interest to students and researchers of economics, history, political science and international finance, but will also prove profitable reading for practitioners and the interested public.
Book Synopsis How to Fix the Euro by : Stephen Pickford
Download or read book How to Fix the Euro written by Stephen Pickford and published by Chatham House. This book was released on 2015-01-31 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economic and financial crisis that started in 2007 exposed serious flaws in the euro's original design. This report examines why Europe's economic and monetary union was so badly affected by the crisis, and assesses whether further changes need to be made to the structure of economic governance that underpins it. A Chatham House, Elcano and AREL Report
Book Synopsis Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications by : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
Download or read book Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-11-06 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.
Book Synopsis Economic Crisis in Europe by : Paul van den Noord
Download or read book Economic Crisis in Europe written by Paul van den Noord and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The European economy is emerging from its deepest recession since the 1930s. This volume, which brings together economic analysis from the European Commission services, explains how swift policy response avoided a financial meltdown. Europe also needs an improved co-ordinated crisis-management framework to help it respond to any similar situations that may arise in the future. Economic Crisis in Europe is a much-anticipated volume which shows that the beginnings of such a crisis-management framework are emerging, building on existing institutions and legislation and complemented by new initiatives.
Book Synopsis The Eurozone Crisis by : Kaarlo Tuori
Download or read book The Eurozone Crisis written by Kaarlo Tuori and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-01-09 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive overview of the Eurozone crisis from a multidimensional constitutional perspective which incorporates the underlying economic assumptions and developments.
Book Synopsis The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects by : Richard E. Baldwin
Download or read book The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects written by Richard E. Baldwin and published by CEPR. This book was released on 2009 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Interest and Prices by : Michael Woodford
Download or read book Interest and Prices written by Michael Woodford and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-12 with total page 805 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, any pretense of a connection of the world's currencies to any real commodity has been abandoned. Yet since the 1980s, most central banks have abandoned money-growth targets as practical guidelines for monetary policy as well. How then can pure "fiat" currencies be managed so as to create confidence in the stability of national units of account? Interest and Prices seeks to provide theoretical foundations for a rule-based approach to monetary policy suitable for a world of instant communications and ever more efficient financial markets. In such a world, effective monetary policy requires that central banks construct a conscious and articulate account of what they are doing. Michael Woodford reexamines the foundations of monetary economics, and shows how interest-rate policy can be used to achieve an inflation target in the absence of either commodity backing or control of a monetary aggregate. The book further shows how the tools of modern macroeconomic theory can be used to design an optimal inflation-targeting regime--one that balances stabilization goals with the pursuit of price stability in a way that is grounded in an explicit welfare analysis, and that takes account of the "New Classical" critique of traditional policy evaluation exercises. It thus argues that rule-based policymaking need not mean adherence to a rigid framework unrelated to stabilization objectives for the sake of credibility, while at the same time showing the advantages of rule-based over purely discretionary policymaking.
Book Synopsis Institutional Change After the Great Recession by : Luis Cárdenas del Rey
Download or read book Institutional Change After the Great Recession written by Luis Cárdenas del Rey and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2023-05-31 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book combines demand-led growth models and the institutionalist approach, in order to explain the macroeconomic performance of the main European countries in recent years followed by which a coherent explanation of the institutional change since the Great Recession, including the economic policy response to the economic and financial crisis (2008) and to the debt crisis (2010) is provided. A "Comparative Political Economy" (CPE) analytical framework and provide an institutional base to the different European growth models is built, in general terms over the period 1995-2018. The results allow us to link diverse growth dynamics to the changes of the institutional framework as a consequence of the economic and financial crises. In each chapter for country case studies (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, Sweden, UK and Poland) there;'s an ntroduction with a general characterization of the country and the most relevant changes that have occurred subsequently (main legislative milestones or changes in the behaviour of social agents) especially the process of dualization or deregulation of European economies. In addition, an analysis of the macroeconomic evolution and the situation of the labour market before and after the crisis from a demand-side perspective is included, concluding with the linkages between both issues and the characterization of the growth model. This book is of special interest to all the students and university professors who will use this book to be able to follow a multitude of subjects from Applied Economy to International Economic Structure but can also be useful for researchers, doctoral students and teaching staff who want to expand knowledge in the fields of comparative political economy, institutions and the European Union. In general, this book is aimed at anyone interested in expanding their knowledge of the evolution of Europe today.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Strategy by : Frederic S. Mishkin
Download or read book Monetary Policy Strategy written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book by a leading authority on monetary policy offers a unique view of the subject from the perspectives of both scholar and practitioner. Frederic Mishkin is not only an academic expert in the field but also a high-level policymaker. He is especially well positioned to discuss the changes in the conduct of monetary policy in recent years, in particular the turn to inflation targeting. Monetary Policy Strategydescribes his work over the last ten years, offering published papers, new introductory material, and a summing up, "Everything You Wanted to Know about Monetary Policy Strategy, But Were Afraid to Ask," which reflects on what we have learned about monetary policy over the last thirty years. Mishkin blends theory, econometric evidence, and extensive case studies of monetary policy in advanced and emerging market and transition economies. Throughout, his focus is on these key areas: the importance of price stability and a nominal anch fiscal and financial preconditions for achieving price stability; central bank independence as an additional precondition; central bank accountability; the rationale for inflation targeting; the optimal inflation target; central bank transparency and communication; and the role of asset prices in monetary policy.
Download or read book And Yet it Moves written by David Miles and published by Geneva Reports on the World Ec. This book was released on 2018-10-30 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last decade, the developed world has been hit by the deepest recession since the Great Depression and a rollercoaster in commodity prices. And yet, core inflation has been both low and fairly stable. A rule of thumb that inflation is always near 2%, though more often than not just a bit below, has been quite reliable. The young, or those with short memories, could be forgiven for looking condescendingly at their older friends who speak of inflation as a major economic problem. But, like Galileo Galilei told his contemporaries who thought the Earth was immovable, "Eppur si muove" ("and yet it moves"). Since most societies regard stable inflation as a goal, it is tempting to describe this solid anchoring of inflation as a great achievement of monetary policy. But what if it was just luck? Will the great anchoring soon lead a great bout of inflation, just as the Great Moderation was followed by the Great Recession? Do we need to change the way in which policy is set to better handle changed circumstances since the financial crash? The 19th Geneva Report on the World Economy starts by analysing outcomes across countries for the last ten years. Inflation is compared with its behaviour in the period before the financial crash to assess the extent to which it really has been stable, what the proximate causes are, and whether it will stay low in future. The report then assesses theories of inflation in light of these facts, and tries to make sense of them. Next, the report turns to the question we posed at the start: was it good policy or good luck that prevented severe deflation and kept inflation relatively steady? A description of what policies were adopted and how they interacted with economic shocks informs the conclusions on appropriate policies--both monetary and fiscal--for the future. The report pays particular attention tothe role of central banks and the extent of their activities.
Book Synopsis Asset Price Bubbles by : William Curt Hunter
Download or read book Asset Price Bubbles written by William Curt Hunter and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 650 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.
Book Synopsis Coming of Age by : Jean Pisani-Ferry
Download or read book Coming of Age written by Jean Pisani-Ferry and published by . This book was released on 2008-11-04 with total page 123 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Om udviklingen i "euro-området" 20 år efter Delors-rapporten om den økonomiske og monetære union, ØMU'en, 10 år efter ratifikationen af Maastricht-traktaten og næsten 10 år efter euroens indførelse
Book Synopsis Opting Out of the Great Inflation by : Andreas Beyer
Download or read book Opting Out of the Great Inflation written by Andreas Beyer and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the turbulent 1970s and 1980s the Bundesbank established an outstanding reputation in the world of central banking. Germany achieved a high degree of domestic stability and provided safe haven for investors in times of turmoil in the international financial system. Eventually the Bundesbank provided the role model for the European Central Bank. Hence, we examine an episode of lasting importance in European monetary history. The purpose of this paper is to highlight how the Bundesbank monetary policy strategy contributed to this success. We analyze the strategy as it was conceived, communicated and refined by the Bundesbank itself. We propose a theoretical framework (following Söderström, 2005) where monetary targeting is interpreted, first and foremost, as a commitment device. In our setting, a monetary target helps anchoring inflation and inflation expectations. We derive an interest rate rule and show empirically that it approximates the way the Bundesbank conducted monetary policy over the period 1975-1998. We compare the Bundesbank's monetary policy rule with those of the FED and of the Bank of England. We find that the Bundesbank's policy reaction function was characterized by strong persistence of policy rates as well as a strong response to deviations of inflation from target and to the activity growth gap. In contrast, the response to the level of the output gap was not significant. In our empirical analysis we use real-time data, as available to policymakers at the time. -- Inflation ; Price Stability ; Monetary Policy ; Monetary Targeting ; Policy Rules.
Book Synopsis Money, Finance, and the Real Economy by : Anton Brender
Download or read book Money, Finance, and the Real Economy written by Anton Brender and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Money matters... but so does finance Starting with the link between money and economic activity, this study shows how today's financial systems have shaped the way that monetary policy is transmitted to the real economy. The information gathering and decisionmaking processes within the financial system play a key role in determining both how credit is allocated and how the risks implied by credit are borne. The study points to what went wrong during the credit boom of the 2000s, which was the counterpart to a huge accumulation of savings, concentrated mainly in emerging economies. This accumulation could well continue. Making better use of the coming savings is a challenge that authorities will have to meet if they want finance to better serve the real economy.
Book Synopsis Europe and the Euro by : Alberto Alesina
Download or read book Europe and the Euro written by Alberto Alesina and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-04-15 with total page 477 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is rare for countries to give up their currencies and thus their ability to influence such critical aspects of their economies as interest and exchange rates. Yet ten years ago a number of European countries did exactly that when they adopted the euro. Despite some dissent, there were a number of arguments in favor of this policy change: it would facilitate exchange of goods, money, and people by decreasing costs; it would increase trade; and it would enhance efficiency and competitiveness at the international level. A decade is an ideal time frame over which to evaluate the success of the euro and whether it has lived up to expectations. To that aim, Europe and the Euro looks at a number of important issues, including the effects of the euro on reform of goods and labor markets; its influence on business cycles and trade among members; and whether the single currency has induced convergence or divergence in the economic performance of member countries. While adoption of the euro may not have met the expectations of its most optimistic proponents, the benefits have been many, and there is reason to believe that the euro is robust enough to survive recent economic shocks. This volume is an essential reference on the first ten years of the euro and the workings of a monetary union.
Book Synopsis Central Banking in Turbulent Times by : Francesco Papadia
Download or read book Central Banking in Turbulent Times written by Francesco Papadia and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-03-09 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks came out of the Great Recession with increased power and responsibilities. Indeed, central banks are often now seen as 'the only game in town', and a place to put innumerable problems vastly exceeding their traditional remit. These new powers do not fit well, however, with the independence of central banks, remote from the democratic control of government. Central Banking in Turbulent Times examines fundamental questions about the central banking system, asking whether the model of an independent central bank devoted to price stability is the final resting point of a complex development that started centuries ago. It dissects the hypothesis that the Great Recession has prompted a reassessment of that model; a renewed emphasis on financial stability has emerged, possibly vying for first rank in the hierarchy of objectives of central banks. This raises the risk of dilemmas, since the Great Recession brought into question implicit assumptions that the pursuit of price stability would also lead to financial stability. In addition, the border between monetary and fiscal policy was blurred both in the US and in Europe. Central Banking in Turbulent Times asks whether the model prevailing before the Great Recession has been irrevocably altered. Are we entering, as Charles Goodhart has hypothesized, into the 'fourth epoch' of central banking? Are changes to central banks part of a move away from the global liberal order that seemed to have prevailed at the turn of the century? Central Banking in Turbulent Times seeks to answer these questions as it examines how changes can allow for the maintenance of price stability, while adapting to the long-term consequences of the Great Recession.
