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The Decline Effect
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Download or read book The Decline Effect written by Dean Brooks and published by FriesenPress. This book was released on with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.
Download or read book The Decline Effect written by Dean Brooks and published by FriesenPress. This book was released on 2023-01-31 with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.
Book Synopsis Psychological Science Under Scrutiny by : Scott O. Lilienfeld
Download or read book Psychological Science Under Scrutiny written by Scott O. Lilienfeld and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-01-03 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Psychological Science Under Scrutiny explores a range of contemporary challenges to the assumptions and methodologies of psychology, in order to encourage debate and ground the discipline in solid science. Discusses the pointed challenges posed by critics to the field of psychological research, which have given pause to psychological researchers across a broad spectrum of sub-fields Argues that those conducting psychological research need to fundamentally change the way they think about data and results, in order to ensure that psychology has a firm basis in empirical science Places the recent challenges discussed into a broad historical and conceptual perspective, and considers their implications for the future of psychological methodology and research Challenges discussed include confirmation bias, the effects of grant pressure, false-positive findings, overestimating the efficacy of medications, and high correlations in functional brain imaging Chapters are authored by internationally recognized experts in their fields, and are written with a minimum of specialized terminology to ensure accessibility to students and lay readers
Book Synopsis The Brussels Effect by : Anu Bradford
Download or read book The Brussels Effect written by Anu Bradford and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2020-01-27 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For many observers, the European Union is mired in a deep crisis. Between sluggish growth; political turmoil following a decade of austerity politics; Brexit; and the rise of Asian influence, the EU is seen as a declining power on the world stage. Columbia Law professor Anu Bradford argues the opposite in her important new book The Brussels Effect: the EU remains an influential superpower that shapes the world in its image. By promulgating regulations that shape the international business environment, elevating standards worldwide, and leading to a notable Europeanization of many important aspects of global commerce, the EU has managed to shape policy in areas such as data privacy, consumer health and safety, environmental protection, antitrust, and online hate speech. And in contrast to how superpowers wield their global influence, the Brussels Effect - a phrase first coined by Bradford in 2012- absolves the EU from playing a direct role in imposing standards, as market forces alone are often sufficient as multinational companies voluntarily extend the EU rule to govern their global operations. The Brussels Effect shows how the EU has acquired such power, why multinational companies use EU standards as global standards, and why the EU's role as the world's regulator is likely to outlive its gradual economic decline, extending the EU's influence long into the future.
Book Synopsis The Decline of Substance Use in Young Adulthood by : Jerald G. Bachman
Download or read book The Decline of Substance Use in Young Adulthood written by Jerald G. Bachman and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2014-04-04 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is intended as a thoughtful extension to Bachman et al.'s well-received monograph Smoking, Drinking, and Drug Use in Young Adulthood. That volume showed that the new freedoms of young adulthood lead to increases in substance use, while the responsibilities of adulthood--marriage, pregnancy, parenthood--contribute to declines in substance use. The Decline of Substance Use in Young Adulthood examines how the changes in social and religious experiences and in attitudes toward substance use observed among young adults are related to changes in substance use, family transitions, living arrangements, college experience, and employment. The research uses a variety of analysis techniques and is based on the nationwide Monitoring the Future surveys of more than 38,000 young people followed from high school into adulthood. The research covers the last quarter of the 20th century, a period when drug use and views about drugs underwent many important changes. In spite of these shifts, the overall patterns of relationships reported in this book are impressive in their consistency across time and in their general similarity for men and women. Specific questions addressed include the following: *As young adults experience new freedoms and responsibilities, do their attitudes about drugs change? *Do their religious views and behaviors shift? *Do their new freedoms and responsibilities affect the amount of time they spend in social activities, including going to parties and bars? *And how are any of these changes linked to changes in cigarette use, alcohol use, marijuana use, and cocaine use?
Book Synopsis The Decline of Arab Oil Revenues by : Abdel Majid Farid
Download or read book The Decline of Arab Oil Revenues written by Abdel Majid Farid and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-06-01 with total page 169 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1986, The Decline of Arab Oil Revenues explores the fall in the economic value of Arab oil reserves in the 1980s. Some of the threats to Arab countries include depletion of oil resources, rise of alternative sources of energy, international policies designed to control oil prices and growing conflicts of interest between producing and consuming countries. The editors suggest that any decline in oil revenues would negatively affect the economic, political, social and psychological structure of Arab societies since they are yet to explore non-oil sources of wealth. Consequently, the editors stress on the importance of researching the desert, which covers 94% of Arab lands, as a potential source of wealth. Given the current global shift towards sustainable forms of energy, this book is a timely reminder of the economic and political implications of such a shift on Arab countries for students of political science, international relations, geography, and economics.
Book Synopsis Science on the Ropes by : Carlos Elías
Download or read book Science on the Ropes written by Carlos Elías and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-05-15 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this controversial essay, Carlos Elías addresses the worldwide phenomenon that is threatening the scientific and economic progress of Western countries. The rise and influence of magic and irrationality in the media, in social networks and at universities is a disturbing phenomenon: many Western students no longer want to pursue STEM (Science, Technologies, Engineering, and Math) careers. This lucid and well-written book addresses one of the key issues of public debate: the deteriorating state of science in Western countries and their governments, and its rise in Asian countries. The author compares two distinct models: the Spanish or Latin model, which closed the door on science with the Counter-Reformation, and that employed by a second group of countries where science was encouraged. Elías suggests that a similar development could now be taking place between Western countries (where the press, television and social science academics are becoming increasingly critical towards science) and Asia, where most prime ministers (and other politicians) are scientists or engineers. This book is intended for STEM educators (both at secondary schools and universities), scientists and academics interested in scientific culture in the era of fake news.
Book Synopsis Firms and the Decline in Earnings Inequality in Brazil by : Jorge Alvarez
Download or read book Firms and the Decline in Earnings Inequality in Brazil written by Jorge Alvarez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-14 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We document a large decrease in earnings inequality in Brazil between 1996 and 2012. Using administrative linked employer-employee data, we fit high-dimensional worker and firm fixed effects models to understand the sources of this decrease. Firm effects account for 40 percent of the total decrease and worker effects for 29 percent. Changes in observable worker and firm characteristics contributed little to these trends. Instead, the decrease is primarily due to a compression of returns to these characteristics, particularly a declining firm productivity pay premium. Our results shed light on potential drivers of earnings inequality dynamics.
Book Synopsis The Decline of the West by : Oswald Spengler
Download or read book The Decline of the West written by Oswald Spengler and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1991 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Spengler's work describes how we have entered into a centuries-long "world-historical" phase comparable to late antiquity, and his controversial ideas spark debate over the meaning of historiography.
Author :United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Foreign Relations. Subcommittee on Foreign Economic Policy Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :324 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (17 download)
Book Synopsis The Decline of the Dollar by : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Foreign Relations. Subcommittee on Foreign Economic Policy
Download or read book The Decline of the Dollar written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Foreign Relations. Subcommittee on Foreign Economic Policy and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Preliminary Report on the Cause of the Decline of the Oyster Industry of the York River, Va by : Andrew Wallace Anderson
Download or read book Preliminary Report on the Cause of the Decline of the Oyster Industry of the York River, Va written by Andrew Wallace Anderson and published by . This book was released on 1937 with total page 548 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Preliminary Report on the Cause of the Decline of the Oyster Industry of the York River, Va by : Paul Simon Galtsoff
Download or read book Preliminary Report on the Cause of the Decline of the Oyster Industry of the York River, Va written by Paul Simon Galtsoff and published by . This book was released on 1938 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Nutritional approaches to arresting the decline in fertility of pigs and poultry by : J.A. Taylor-Pickard
Download or read book Nutritional approaches to arresting the decline in fertility of pigs and poultry written by J.A. Taylor-Pickard and published by BRILL. This book was released on 2023-08-28 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Continued genetic development of pigs and poultry has been the foundation of profitable production within a competitive market. However, the challenges of these production increases have undoubtedly taken their toll on reproductive function in all breeding livestock, with the incidence of infertility increasing at an alarming rate. For example, it has recently been estimated that over 40% of sows are culled due to fertility problems, compared to just 12% with feet and leg issues. This edited collection of papers is taken from a series of seminars, devoted to bringing together some of the world’s leading authorities in the field of pig and poultry reproduction. The fundamental aim being to re-examine the current trends in productivity in the pig and poultry industries, and to identify nutritional means to improve fertility. It considers the effects of essential nutrients in optimising productivity, and discusses innovative applications of nutrition that will help to enhance fertility. The success of such innovations within entrepreneurial integrated systems is also covered, together with the importance of producing a quality chick and piglet at birth/hatching. Finally, the role of management and the need for least cost production is discussed. Nutritional Approaches to Arresting the decline in Fertility of Pigs and Poultry is aimed at nutritionists and animal producers as well as students and researchers studying animal and applied biological sciences."
Book Synopsis Assessing the Decline in the National Saving Rate by :
Download or read book Assessing the Decline in the National Saving Rate written by and published by Congress. This book was released on 1993 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the Conference on the Decline in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality by : Manning Feinleib
Download or read book Proceedings of the Conference on the Decline in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality written by Manning Feinleib and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Dissecting the Decline in Average Hours Worked in Europe by : Diva Astinova
Download or read book Dissecting the Decline in Average Hours Worked in Europe written by Diva Astinova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-01-12 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Three years after the COVID-19 crisis, employment and total hours worked in Europe fully recovered, but average hours per worker did not. We analyze the decline in average hours worked across European countries and find that (i) it is not cyclical but predominantly structural, extending a long-term trend that predates COVID-19, (ii) it mainly reflects reduced hours within worker groups, not a compositional shift towards lower-hours jobs and workers, (iii) men—particularly those with young children—and youth drive this drop, (iv) declines in actual hours match declines in desired hours. Policy reforms could help involuntary parttimers and women with young children raise their actual hours towards desired levels, but the aggregate impact on average hours would be limited to 0.5 to 1.5 percent. Overall, there is scant evidence of slack at the intensive margin in European labor markets, and the trend fall in average hours worked seems unlikely to reverse.
Book Synopsis The Decline in Educational Standards by : James D. Williams
Download or read book The Decline in Educational Standards written by James D. Williams and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2019-04-15 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offers a detailed, pragmatic discussion of potential steps to reverse the decline in educational standards.
