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The Decline Effect
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Download or read book The Decline Effect written by Dean Brooks and published by FriesenPress. This book was released on with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.
Download or read book The Decline Effect written by Dean Brooks and published by FriesenPress. This book was released on with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.
Book Synopsis History of the Rise and Influence of the Spirit of Rationalism in Europe by : William Edward Hartpole Lecky
Download or read book History of the Rise and Influence of the Spirit of Rationalism in Europe written by William Edward Hartpole Lecky and published by . This book was released on 1870 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Does Using Local Pidgin Effect the Outcome of English Learning? The Case of Nigerian Students by : Leslie Acheson Wey
Download or read book Does Using Local Pidgin Effect the Outcome of English Learning? The Case of Nigerian Students written by Leslie Acheson Wey and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2020-01-29 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academic Paper from the year 2019 in the subject Didactics - English - Pedagogy, Literature Studies, , language: English, abstract: This study examines the effects of Nigerian pidgin on students’ performance in English studies using selected students of Junior Secondary School, Bwari Abuja as case study. In conducting the research the researcher uses qualitative and quantitative approach method and sources data from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data are collected through the use of questionnaire with open-ended variables while secondary data collection is from existing literature on the project topic. Likert-type scale arranged in order of "very significantly", "significantly", "neutral", "insignificantly" and "very insignificantly" are used to get respondents opinion on the variables. The major research questions are: What are the effects of Nigerian Pidgin on students’ performance in English studies? Are students allowed to use Nigerian Pidgin in academic works? The general objective of the study is to find out the impact of Nigerian Pidgin on students’ performance in English studies while the hypotheses posit for the study include: Ho1: There is no significant relationship between Nigerian Pidgin and students’ performance in English Studies. Ho2: There is no significant relationship between students’ use of Nigerian Pidgin on the outcome of their academic performance. The major results of the study indicate that 94% or the respondents posits that Nigerian Pidgin affects academic performance while the test of hypothesis with a degree of freedom 4 percent indicate that there is a significant relationship between Nigerian Pidgin and students’ performance in English studies. The study recommends that the use of Nigerian Pidgin in an academic community such as Junior Secondary School Bwari, Abuja should not be encouraged. The study suggests that a more robust examination on the research topic involving other academic communities be conducted. Besides,, a comparative study on the impact of Pidgin on students’ performance in other English speaking countries should be carried out in order to investigate how its been handled.
Book Synopsis Parapsychology and Self-deception in Science by : Robert A. McConnell
Download or read book Parapsychology and Self-deception in Science written by Robert A. McConnell and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 166 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Unity of Law by : Henry Charles Carey
Download or read book The Unity of Law written by Henry Charles Carey and published by . This book was released on 1872 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book The Baltimore Underwriter written by and published by . This book was released on 1883 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Modern Products Liability Law and Its Effect on the Accident Rate by : George L. Priest
Download or read book Modern Products Liability Law and Its Effect on the Accident Rate written by George L. Priest and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Report of the Board of Trustees of the Agricultural College of Pennsylvania by : Agricultural College of Pennsylvania. Board of Trustees
Download or read book Report of the Board of Trustees of the Agricultural College of Pennsylvania written by Agricultural College of Pennsylvania. Board of Trustees and published by . This book was released on 1895 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Changing Practices in Ground Water Management by :
Download or read book Changing Practices in Ground Water Management written by and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Productivity and Factor Proportions in Less Developed Countries by : Jacques Gouverneur
Download or read book Productivity and Factor Proportions in Less Developed Countries written by Jacques Gouverneur and published by Oxford : Clarendon Press. This book was released on 1971 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book European Economy written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 1042 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Journal of Parapsychology by : Joseph Banks Rhine
Download or read book The Journal of Parapsychology written by Joseph Banks Rhine and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Determinants of Infant Behaviour [I-IV] Proceedings ... by : Brian M. Foss
Download or read book Determinants of Infant Behaviour [I-IV] Proceedings ... written by Brian M. Foss and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Journal of the Society for Psychical Research by : Society for Psychical Research (Great Britain)
Download or read book Journal of the Society for Psychical Research written by Society for Psychical Research (Great Britain) and published by . This book was released on 1954 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Proceedings of the Society for Psychical Research by : Society for Psychical Research (Great Britain)
Download or read book Proceedings of the Society for Psychical Research written by Society for Psychical Research (Great Britain) and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: List of members in v.1-19, 21, 24-
Book Synopsis The Effect of Breeder Hen Age on Reproductive Characteristics and Subsequent Embryo and Hatchling Development and Growth of Turkeys and Pekin Ducks by : Todd Jay Applegate 1999
Download or read book The Effect of Breeder Hen Age on Reproductive Characteristics and Subsequent Embryo and Hatchling Development and Growth of Turkeys and Pekin Ducks written by Todd Jay Applegate 1999 and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
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