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Author : Jerry D. Tate
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Term Expectation and Uncertainty in Human Decision Behavior written by Jerry D. Tate and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (227 download)
Download or read book Term Expectation and Uncertainty in Human Decision Behavior written by and published by . This book was released on 1963 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study was conducted to investigate the manner and degree to which a decision makers sequence of decisions is influenced by objectives of varying remoteness (term expectation) and by informational uncertainty. The effects of these two variables on sequential decision performance were studied in a 4 x 4 factorial experiment. Term expectation was defined as the number of problems over which the decision maker accumulated his score. Uncertainty was manipulate by controlling the number of events from which the subject was to predict a terminal event. Decisions (predictions) were made either at prescribed uncertainty levels or on a freely chosen basis (depending on the prevailing experimental conditions), and a range of choices varying in degree of risk and payoff was available at each uncertainty level. The same five subjects served in all conditions of the experiment. Choices were evaluated in terms of risk, expected value, and average departure from linear progression to mean winning score (DFL). No significant differences were obtained for term expectation, per se. Maximum expected values were achieved at intermediate levels of uncertainty. (Author).
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 2194 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)
Download or read book U.S. Government Research Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 2194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 252 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (3 download)
Download or read book Scientific and Technical Aerospace Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author : Joe Lorkowski
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319622145
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)
Download or read book Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity written by Joe Lorkowski and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-07-01 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses an intriguing question: are our decisions rational? It explains seemingly irrational human decision-making behavior by taking into account our limited ability to process information. It also shows with several examples that optimization under granularity restriction leads to observed human decision-making. Drawing on the Nobel-prize-winning studies by Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have found many examples of seemingly irrational decisions: e.g., we overestimate the probability of rare events. Our explanation is that since human abilities to process information are limited, we operate not with the exact values of relevant quantities, but with “granules” that contain these values. We show that optimization under such granularity indeed leads to observed human behavior. In particular, for the first time, we explain the mysterious empirical dependence of betting odds on actual probabilities. This book can be recommended to all students interested in human decision-making, to researchers whose work involves human decisions, and to practitioners who design and employ systems involving human decision-making —so that they can better utilize our ability to make decisions under uncertainty.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (243 download)
Download or read book Business Service Check List written by and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1420 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Bibliography of Scientific and Industrial Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 1420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Kerstin Preuschoff
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
ISBN 13 : 2889194663
Total Pages : 144 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (891 download)
Download or read book Decision Making under Uncertainty written by Kerstin Preuschoff and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2015-06-16 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty.
Author : United States. Wright Air Development Division. Behavioral Sciences Laboratory
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 92 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Bibliography of Reports written by United States. Wright Air Development Division. Behavioral Sciences Laboratory and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Kenneth R. Hammond
Publisher : Praeger Publishers
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (42 download)
Download or read book Human Judgment and Decision Making written by Kenneth R. Hammond and published by Praeger Publishers. This book was released on 1980 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Pavlov, Yuri P.
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1466629681
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (666 download)
Download or read book Decision Control, Management, and Support in Adaptive and Complex Systems: Quantitative Models written by Pavlov, Yuri P. and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2013-02-28 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In order to ensure the criteria for monitoring and managing the various problems and design for decision control, a mathematical description of exact human knowledge is required for the management of adaptive and complex systems. Decision Control, Management, and Support in Adaptive and Complex Systems: Quantitative Models presents an application and demonstration of a new mathematical technique for descriptions of complex systems. This comprehensive collection contains scientific results in the field of contemporary approaches to adaptive decision making that is essential for researchers, scholars, and students alike.
Author : Panagiotis E. Petrakis
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137460792
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (374 download)
Download or read book Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making written by Panagiotis E. Petrakis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty in Entrepreneurial Decision Making fills an existing gap in understanding three key concepts of business management: entrepreneurship, uncertainty, and strategy. By extending the impact of uncertainty on entrepreneurship and the role of strategy in reducing uncertainty, Petrakis and Konstantakopoulou emphasize that uncertainty can be converted into creative advantage. Given that the business environment is changing both very quickly and very often, any wrong decisions taken can lead to devastation. This exciting new volume explains the reasons why we cannot see the complete the future and our position in it. This uncertainty affects entrepreneurship and how it can be turned into a competitive advantage for businesses sustainability.
Author : Edgardo Bucciarelli
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319608827
Total Pages : 143 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)
Download or read book Decision Economics: In the Tradition of Herbert A. Simon's Heritage written by Edgardo Bucciarelli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-06-13 with total page 143 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The special session on Decision Economics (DECON) is a scientific forum held annually and intended to share ideas, projects, research results, models and experiences associated with the complexity of behavioural decision processes and socio‐economic phenomena. DECON 2017 was held at the Polytechnic of Porto, ISEP, Portugal, as part of the 14th International Conference on Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence. For the second consecutive year, the Editors of this book have drawn inspiration from Herbert A. Simon’s immense body of work and argue that Simon precipitated something akin to a revolution in microeconomics focused on the concept of decision‐making. Further, it is worth noting that the recognition of relevant decision‐making takes place in a range of critical subject areas and research fields, including economics, finance, information systems, small and international business management, operations, and production. Therefore, decision‐making issues are of fundamental importance in all branches of economics addressed both deductively and inductively. Not surprisingly, the study of decision‐making has seen growing empirical research efforts in the economic literature over the last sixty years and, more recently, a variety of insightful cutting‐edge experimental, behavioural and computational approaches. Additionally, the awareness regarding generalizations and reductions to express economic concepts has led, on the one hand, to an increasing risk of spreading the language of mathematics as a rhetorical tool and, on the other hand, to an oversimplification and overlooking of some crucial details, especially when it comes to human decisions and, hence, economic behaviour. That awareness, however, has helped to produce an extraordinary volume of empirical research aimed at discovering how economic agents cope with complex decisions. In this sense, the international scientific community acknowledges Herbert A. Simon’s research endeavours to understand the processes involved in economic decision‐making and their implications for the advancement of economic professions. Within the field of decision‐making, indeed, Simon’s rejection of the standard decision‐making models used in neoclassical economics inspired social scientists worldwide to develop research programmes in order to study decision‐making empirically. The main achievements concern decision‐making for individuals, firms, markets, governments, institutions, and, last but not least, science and research.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)
Download or read book Aerospace Medicine and Biology written by and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A selection of annotated references to unclassified reports and journal articles that were introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system and announced in Scientific and technical aerospace reports (STAR) and International aerospace abstracts (IAA)
Author : Reid Hastie
Publisher : SAGE
ISBN 13 : 9780761922759
Total Pages : 390 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (227 download)
Download or read book Rational Choice in an Uncertain World written by Reid Hastie and published by SAGE. This book was released on 2001-04-13 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First Edition, Winner of the prestigious William James Award from the American Psychological Association An understanding of the principles of rational decision making can help students improve the quality of their lives. Intended as an introductory textbook, the material in Rational Choice in an Uncertain World is not only of scholarly interest, but practical as well. Created specifically for courses on judgement and decision-making, this book makes research readily accessible to both undergraduate and graduate students. This Second Edition of the award-winning book, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World (1988) by Robyn M. Dawes, is sure to interest and enlighten students at all levels. This new edition features: · New student friendly chapter introductions as well as conclusions and cross-references between chapters. · Award-winning authors are respected professors with over 30 years of experience in the field. · Practical, everyday examples from such areas as finance, medicine, law, and engineering. · Comprehensive and up-to-date information keep this edition abreast of the changing ideas within the discipline · Additional discussion of the descriptive, psychological models of decision making to expand upon the original emphasis on normative, rational, `Expected Utility Theory′ models. Equipped with this knowledge and an understanding of the principles of rational decision making, both undergraduate and graduate students can help improve the quality of their choices and, thus, their life.
