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Strategic Surprise Attack
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Download or read book Surprise Attack written by Ephraim KAM and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-30 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ephraim Kam observes surprise attack through the eyes of its victim in order to understand the causes of the victim's failure to anticipate the coming of war. Emphasing the psychological aspect of warfare, Kam traces the behavior of the victim at various functional levels and from several points of view in order to examine the difficulties and mistakes that permit a nation to be taken by surprise. He argues that anticipation and prediction of a coming war are more complicated than any other issue of strategic estimation, involving such interdependent factors as analytical contradictions, judgemental biases, organizational obstacles, and political as well as military constraints. Surprise Attack: The Victim's Perspective offers implications based on the intelligence perspective, providing both historical background and scientific analysis that draws from the author's vast experience. The book is of utmost value to all those engaged in intelligence work, and to those whose operational or political responsibility brings them in touch with intelligence assessments and the need to authenticate and then adopt them or discount them. Similarly, the book will interest any reader intrigued by decision-making processes that influence individuals and nations at war, and sometimes even shape national destiny. --Ehud Barak, Former Prime Minister of Israel
Book Synopsis Surprise Attack by : Richard K. Betts
Download or read book Surprise Attack written by Richard K. Betts and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Long before Germany's blitzkrieg swept the West, European leaders had received many signals of its imminence. Stalin, too, had abundant warning of German designs on Russia but believed that by avoiding "provocative" defensive measures he could avert the attack that finally came in June 1941. And the stories of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and three Arab-Israeli conflicts are replete with missed opportunities to react to unmistakable warnings. Richad K. Betts analyzes surprise attacks during the mid-twentieth century to illustrate his thesis: surprise attacks occur, not because intelligence services fail to warn, but because of the disbelief of political leaders. "Although the probability is low that the United States will fail to deter direct attack by the Soviet Union," Betts says, "the intensity of the threat warrants painstaking analysis of how to cope with it." His own investigation of the historical, psychological, political, diplomatic, and military aspects of his subject heightens understanding of why surprise attacks succeed and why victim nations fail to respond to warnings. In discussing current policy he focuses on the defense of Western Europe and applies the lessons of history to U.S. defense planning, offering detailed recommendations for changes in strategy. Obviously some of the potential dangers of military surprise cannot be prevented. The important thing, he emphasizes, is that "without forces that exceed requirements (the solution Moscow appears to have chosen), it is vital to ensure that what forces exist can be brought to bear when needed.
Book Synopsis Intelligence and Surprise Attack by : Erik J. Dahl
Download or read book Intelligence and Surprise Attack written by Erik J. Dahl and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2013-07-19 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings.
Book Synopsis Strategic Military Surprise by : Klaus Eugen Knorr
Download or read book Strategic Military Surprise written by Klaus Eugen Knorr and published by Transaction Publishers. This book was released on with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Surprise Attack by : Richard K. Betts
Download or read book Surprise Attack written by Richard K. Betts and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Long before Germany's blitzkrieg swept the West, European leaders had received many signals of its imminence. Stalin, too, had abundant warning of German designs on Russia but believed that by avoiding "provocative" defensive measures he could avert the attack that finally came in June 1941. And the stories of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and three Arab-Israeli conflicts are replete with missed opportunities to react to unmistakable warnings. Richad K. Betts analyzes surprise attacks during the mid-twentieth century to illustrate his thesis: surprise attacks occur, not because intelligence services fail to warn, but because of the disbelief of political leaders. "Although the probability is low that the United States will fail to deter direct attack by the Soviet Union," Betts says, "the intensity of the threat warrants painstaking analysis of how to cope with it." His own investigation of the historical, psychological, political, diplomatic, and military aspects of his subject heightens understanding of why surprise attacks succeed and why victim nations fail to respond to warnings. In discussing current policy he focuses on the defense of Western Europe and applies the lessons of history to U.S. defense planning, offering detailed recommendations for changes in strategy. Obviously some of the potential dangers of military surprise cannot be prevented. The important thing, he emphasizes, is that "without forces that exceed requirements (the solution Moscow appears to have chosen), it is vital to ensure that what forces exist can be brought to bear when needed.
Book Synopsis Intelligence and Strategic Surprises by : Ariel Levite
Download or read book Intelligence and Strategic Surprises written by Ariel Levite and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 1987 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Strategic Surprise Attack by : Stanley L. Mushaw
Download or read book Strategic Surprise Attack written by Stanley L. Mushaw and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study reviews the open literature of surprise attacks and concentrates on the works of Roberta Wohlstetter, Barton Whaley, Michael Handel, Richard Betts, Alex Hybel, and Ariel Levite. The characteristics and causes of surprise are summarized and areas for additional research are identified. The author asserts that Western defense planning is geared to deterrence of an all-out, bolt-from-the-blue attack which is the most improbable form of surprise. Keywords: Literature surveys, Military intelligence; Deception; Strategic warning; Tactical warning. (EDC).
Book Synopsis Transformation and Strategic Surprise by : Colin S. Gray
Download or read book Transformation and Strategic Surprise written by Colin S. Gray and published by . This book was released on 2005-04-29 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Though discounted by Clausewitz in the circumstances of his era, strategic surprise has enjoyed considerable popularity over the past century. The possibility of achieving decisive results from attacks launched on short, or zero, warning has appeared to improve greatly with advances in technology. It follows that surprise has been recognized as offering what seem to be both golden opportunities and lethal dangers. Since surprise is an ironbound necessity for the tactical success of terrorism, it is understandable that it attracts a major degree of attention today. There is no real novelty about this. After all, for 40 years the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organizatiion (NATO) allies perpetually worried about surprise attack on the Central Front in Europe, as well as about a surprise first strike designed to disarm the United States of its ability to retaliate with its strategic nuclear forces. As a general rule, this monograph does not repeat or attempt to second guess the existing scholarship on how to correct bureaucratic and other pathologies in the world of intelligence. Furthermore, it does not contest the declared purposes or the details of the Army's radical transformation plan, both of which it judges to be admirable. It is not that kind of analysis. Instead, this discussion takes an unusually broad view of the problem, actually the condition, of strategic surprise, and relates it to the process of military transformation that currently is still in its early stages. The analysis has a strong thesis and conclusion. Specifically, it argues that in period after period, and with few exceptions in war after war, the kind of strategic surprise to which the United States is most at risk, and which is most damaging to U.S. national security, is the unexpected depth and pervasiveness of the connection between war and politics. Americans usually are superior in making war: they are far less superior in making the peace that they want out of the war that they wage. The monograph argues that the current military transformation, though certainly welcome, cannot itself correct the long-standing U.S. weakness in the proper use of force as an instrument of policy. The discussion claims that, notwithstanding its probable virtues in the enhancement of military prowess, the current military transformation bids fair to be irrelevant to America's really serious strategic problem or condition. What the global superpower needs is a military establishment that it can use in ways conducive to the standards of international order it seeks to uphold, and with the political consequences that U.S. policy intends. Whether that establishment is more, or less, network-centric, or has, more or less, on-call precision firepower, truly is a matter of less than overwhelming importance. Politics rules! More accurately phrased, perhaps, policy should rule! War is political behavior that must serve policy. Since the conduct of war should not be a self-regarding apolitical activity, preparation for it in peacetime, as well as its exercise in anger, needs to be suffused with the sense of purpose that is provided only by the realm of policy. To summarize: this monograph has taken no issue with the grand design of the transforming Army, rather the salient topics are the use made of the Army by American policymakers, and the way that the Army chooses to behave, both in combat and afterwards. The argument unfolds cumulatively with seven points presented in all but self-explanatory, descriptive language.
Book Synopsis Transformation and Strategic Surprise by :
Download or read book Transformation and Strategic Surprise written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2005 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Though discounted by Clausewitz in the circumstances of his era, strategic surprise has enjoyed considerable popularity over the past century. The possibility of achieving decisive results from attacks launched on short, or zero, warning has appeared to improve greatly with advances in technology. It follows that surprise has been recognized as offering what seem to be both golden opportunities and lethal dangers. Since surprise is an ironbound necessity for the tactical success of terrorism, it is understandable that it attracts a major degree of attention today. There is no real novelty about this. After all, for 40 years the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies perpetually worried about surprise attack on the Central Front in Europe, as well as about a surprise first strike designed to disarm the United States of its ability to retaliate with its strategic nuclear forces.
Book Synopsis Preventing Surprise Attacks by : Richard A. Posner
Download or read book Preventing Surprise Attacks written by Richard A. Posner and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2005 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Posner discusses the utter futilty of this reform act in a searing critique of the 9/11 Commission, its recommendations, Congress's role in making law, and the law's inability to do what it is intended to do.
Book Synopsis Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts by : Mark F. Cancian
Download or read book Coping with Surprise in Great Power Conflicts written by Mark F. Cancian and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2018-03-23 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Surprise has always been an element of warfare, but the return of great power competition—and the high-level threat that it poses—gives urgency to thinking about surprise now. Because the future is highly uncertain, and great powers have not fought each other for over 70 years, surprise is highly likely in a future great power conflict. This study, therefore, examines potential surprises in a great power conflict, particularly in a conflict’s initial stages when the interaction of adversaries’ technologies, prewar plans, and military doctrines first becomes manifest. It is not an attempt to project the future. Rather, it seeks to do the opposite: explore the range of possible future conflicts to see where surprises might lurk.
Book Synopsis Pearl Harbor by : Roberta Wohlstetter
Download or read book Pearl Harbor written by Roberta Wohlstetter and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 1962 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This account of the Pearl Harbor attack denies that the lack of preparation resulted from military negligence or a political plot
Book Synopsis Terror in Our Time; the Secret Service of Surprise Attack by : Richard Wilmer Rowan
Download or read book Terror in Our Time; the Secret Service of Surprise Attack written by Richard Wilmer Rowan and published by Legare Street Press. This book was released on 2023-07-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1940, this book focuses on the military strategies of surprise attacks, such as the Pearl Harbor attack, and their impact on global politics. Rowan, a former naval officer, provides a detailed analysis of the factors that contributed to surprise attacks, including the use of air power and intelligence gathering. He argues for a greater emphasis on preparedness and the use of new technologies in order to prevent devastating surprise attacks in the future. The book is a valuable historical record of military strategy during World War II and a thought-provoking analysis of the continuing relevance of surprise attack in modern warfare. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Book Synopsis Surprise, Security, and the American Experience by : John Lewis Gaddis
Download or read book Surprise, Security, and the American Experience written by John Lewis Gaddis and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2005-10-31 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this provocative book, a distinguished Cold War historian argues that September 11, 2001, was not the first time a surprise attack shattered American assumptions about national security and reshaped American grand strategy.
Download or read book Surprise Attack written by Larry Hancock and published by Catapult. This book was released on 2016-09-13 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Surprise Attack explores sixty plus years of military and terror threats against the United States. It examines the intelligence tools and practices that provided warnings of those attacks and evaluates the United States' responses, both in preparedness – and most importantly – the effectiveness of our military and national command authority. Contrary to common claims, the historical record now shows that warnings, often very solid warnings, have preceded almost all such attacks, both domestic and international. Intelligence practices developed early in the Cold War, along with intelligence collection techniques have consistently produced accurate warnings for our national security decision makers. Surprise Attack traces the evolution and application of those practices and explores why such warnings have often failed to either interdict or intercept actual attacks. Going beyond warnings, Surprise Attack explores the real world performance of the nation's military and civilian command and control history – exposing disconnects in the chain of command, failures of command and control and fundamental performance issues with national command authority. America has faced an ongoing series of threats, from the attacks on Hawaii and the Philippines in 1941, through the crises and confrontations of the Cold War, global attacks on American personnel and facilities to the contemporary violence of jihadi terrorism. With a detailed study of those threats, the attacks related to them, and America's response, a picture of what works – and what doesn't – emerges. The attacks have been tragic and we see the defensive preparations and response often ineffective. Yet lessons can be learned from the experience; Surprise Attack represents a comprehensive effort to identify and document those lessons.
Book Synopsis Managing Strategic Surprise by : Paul Bracken
Download or read book Managing Strategic Surprise written by Paul Bracken and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-08-07 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.
Book Synopsis Anticipating Surprise by : Cynthia M. Grabo
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
