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Author : Ariel Levite
Publisher : Columbia University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780231063746
Total Pages : 252 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (637 download)
Download or read book Intelligence and Strategic Surprises written by Ariel Levite and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 1987 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Erik J. Dahl
Publisher : Georgetown University Press
ISBN 13 : 1589019989
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Intelligence and Surprise Attack written by Erik J. Dahl and published by Georgetown University Press. This book was released on 2013-07-19 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor, in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states, but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies? Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings had been available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to “connect the dots” of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis, but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff. The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report’s findings.
Author : Richard K. Betts
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135759650
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (357 download)
Download or read book Paradoxes of Strategic Intelligence written by Richard K. Betts and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-08-02 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part of a three part collection in honour of the teachings of Michael I. Handel, one of the foremost strategists of the late 20th century, this collection explores the paradoxes of intelligence analysis, surprise and deception from both historical and theoretical perspectives.
Author : John Gooch
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136282092
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (362 download)
Download or read book Military Deception and Strategic Surprise! written by John Gooch and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-11-12 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published in 2004, Military Deception and Strategic Surprise! is a valuable contribution to the field of Military and Strategic Studies.
Author : Cynthia M. Grabo
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Anticipating Surprise written by Cynthia M. Grabo and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Avner Barnea
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 1793619891
Total Pages : 233 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (936 download)
Download or read book We Never Expected That written by Avner Barnea and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2021-08-30 with total page 233 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The disciplines of strategic intelligence at the governmental level and competitive business intelligence constitute accepted methods of decision-supporting to prevent mistakes and strategic surprise. This research discovered that many researchers in the intelligence field feel that intelligence methodology in both contexts has reached a “glass ceiling.” Thus far, research has focused separately on national intelligence and intelligence in business, without any attempt to benchmark from one field to the other. This book shows that it is possible to use experience gained in the business field to improve intelligence practices in national security, and vice versa through mutual learning. The book’s main innovation is its proposition that mutual learning can be employed in the context of a model distinguishes between concentrated and diffused surprises to provide a breakthrough in the intelligence field, thereby facilitating better prediction of the surprise development. We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence focuses on a comparison between how states, through their intelligence organizations, cope with strategic surprises and how business organizations deal with unexpected movement in their field. Based on this comparison, the author proposes a new model which can better address the challenge of avoiding strategic surprises. This book can contribute significantly to the study of intelligence, which will become more influential in the coming years.
Author : Milo Jones
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804787158
Total Pages : 389 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)
Download or read book Constructing Cassandra written by Milo Jones and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2013-08-21 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Constructing Cassandra analyzes the intelligence failures at the CIA that resulted in four key strategic surprises experienced by the US: the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, the Iranian revolution of 1978, the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and the 9/11 terrorist attacks—surprises still play out today in U.S. policy. Although there has been no shortage of studies exploring how intelligence failures can happen, none of them have been able to provide a unified understanding of the phenomenon. To correct that omission, this book brings culture and identity to the foreground to present a unified model of strategic surprise; one that focuses on the internal make-up the CIA, and takes seriously those Cassandras who offered warnings, but were ignored. This systematic exploration of the sources of the CIA's intelligence failures points to ways to prevent future strategic surprises.
Author : Seena Sharp
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470293179
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)
Download or read book Competitive Intelligence Advantage written by Seena Sharp and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-10-19 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical introduction to the necessity of competitive intelligence for smarter business decisions-from a leading CI expert and speaker In Competitive Intelligence Advantage, Seena Sharp, founder of one of the first Competitive Intelligence firms in the US, provides her expert analysis on the issues and benefits of CI for today's businesses. CI is critical for making smarter business decisions and reducing risks when formulating strategies, leading to more profits and fewer mistakes. This is a practical guide that explains what CI is, why data is not intelligence, why competitor intelligence is a weak sibling to competitive intelligence, when to use it, how to find the most useful information and turn it into actual intelligence, and how to present findings in the most convincing manner. Importantly, Sharp argues that businesses would benefit from shifting their perspective on CI from viewing it as a cost to viewing it as an investment that saves money and provides immediate value. Author Seena Sharp is a noted CI expert who established Sharp Market Intelligence in 1979 Addresses all the most common myths and misconceptions about CI Includes more than sixty examples of when to use CI Completely explains the ins and outs of CI, and why your company will act faster and more aggressively with CI Competitive intelligence is a management tool that is misunderstood and underestimated, yet results in numerous benefits. If you are a senior level executive or operate a business-and you aren't tapping the power of CI to improve your decision making-you are missing a potent advantage.
Author : Uri Bar-Joseph
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 019067699X
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (96 download)
Download or read book Intelligence Success and Failure written by Uri Bar-Joseph and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-03-03 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study of strategic surprise has long concentrated on important failures that resulted in catastrophes such as Pearl Harbor and the September 11th attacks, and the majority of previously published research in the field determines that such large-scale military failures often stem from defective information-processing systems. Intelligence Success and Failure challenges this common assertion that catastrophic surprise attacks are the unmistakable products of warning failure alone. Further, Uri Bar-Joseph and Rose McDermott approach this topic uniquely by highlighting the successful cases of strategic surprise, as well as the failures, from a psychological perspective. This book delineates the critical role of individual psychopathologies in precipitating failure by investigating important historical cases. Bar-Joseph and McDermott use six particular military attacks as examples for their analysis, including: "Barbarossa," the June 1941 German invasion of the USSR (failure); the fall-winter 1941 battle for Moscow (success); the Arab attack on Israel on Yom Kippur 1973 (failure); and the second Egyptian offensive in the war six days later (success). From these specific cases and others, they analyze the psychological mechanisms through which leaders assess their own fatal mistakes and use the intelligence available to them. Their research examines the factors that contribute to failure and success in responding to strategic surprise and identify the learning process that central decision makers use to facilitate subsequent successes. Intelligence Success and Failure presents a new theory in the study of strategic surprise that claims the key explanation for warning failure is not unintentional action, but rather, motivated biases in key intelligence and central leaders that null any sense of doubt prior to surprise attacks.
Author : Klaus Eugen Knorr
Publisher : Transaction Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9781412835213
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (352 download)
Download or read book Strategic Military Surprise written by Klaus Eugen Knorr and published by Transaction Publishers. This book was released on with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Alain Paul Martin
Publisher : Professional Dev Inst Press
ISBN 13 : 9780865029248
Total Pages : 247 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (292 download)
Download or read book Harnessing the Power of Intelligence, Counterintelligence & Surprise Events written by Alain Paul Martin and published by Professional Dev Inst Press. This book was released on 2002 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Full of practical illustrations from business, government and the military, this book covers the organization, leadership, tools and culture of intelligence. It reveals new instruments, platforms and breakthrough concepts to address intelligence issues at national and corporate levels. It can help companies use intelligence to win customers and allies, and shield their assets from adversaries. Its focus is on detecting threats and opportunities, by legal and ethical means, and earlier than can be learned through reliable media. Readers will learn how to orchestrate and hitchhike on surprise events to create value. Based on Harvard University Global System? management road maps pioneered by the author, the book features extensive endnotes and Web sites, a bibliography, a book index and colorful Harvard road maps on strategy and risk. The book is suitable for general audiences. Technical terms are explained thoroughly. Some stories could be used to stimulate discussions and give college students a primer on intelligence. Real-life examples about people and important issues will be fun to read, talk about, both at work and at home. As Harvard Emeritus Professor William J. Bruns said: "Martin has created a framework and processes that anyone or any organization can adapt and use to create information and intelligence that will prevent or reduce unpleasant surprises in their lives or work."
Author : Richard K. Betts
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
ISBN 13 : 9780815719472
Total Pages : 340 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (194 download)
Download or read book Surprise Attack written by Richard K. Betts and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Long before Germany's blitzkrieg swept the West, European leaders had received many signals of its imminence. Stalin, too, had abundant warning of German designs on Russia but believed that by avoiding "provocative" defensive measures he could avert the attack that finally came in June 1941. And the stories of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and three Arab-Israeli conflicts are replete with missed opportunities to react to unmistakable warnings. Richad K. Betts analyzes surprise attacks during the mid-twentieth century to illustrate his thesis: surprise attacks occur, not because intelligence services fail to warn, but because of the disbelief of political leaders. "Although the probability is low that the United States will fail to deter direct attack by the Soviet Union," Betts says, "the intensity of the threat warrants painstaking analysis of how to cope with it." His own investigation of the historical, psychological, political, diplomatic, and military aspects of his subject heightens understanding of why surprise attacks succeed and why victim nations fail to respond to warnings. In discussing current policy he focuses on the defense of Western Europe and applies the lessons of history to U.S. defense planning, offering detailed recommendations for changes in strategy. Obviously some of the potential dangers of military surprise cannot be prevented. The important thing, he emphasizes, is that "without forces that exceed requirements (the solution Moscow appears to have chosen), it is vital to ensure that what forces exist can be brought to bear when needed.
Author : Dheeraj Paramesha Chaya
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1000728668
Total Pages : 275 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (7 download)
Download or read book India’s Intelligence Culture and Strategic Surprises written by Dheeraj Paramesha Chaya and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-09-29 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines India’s foreign intelligence culture and strategic surprises in the 20th century. The work looks at whether there is a distinct way in which India ‘thinks about’ and ‘does’ intelligence, and, by extension, whether this affects the prospects of it being surprised. Drawing on a combination of archival data, secondary source information and interviews with members of the Indian security and intelligence community, the book provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of Indian intelligence culture from the ancient period to colonial times and, subsequently, the post-colonial era. This evolutionary culture has played a significant role in explaining the India’s foreign intelligence failure during the occurrences of strategic surprises, such as the 1962 Sino-Indian War and the 1999 Kargil War, while it successfully prepared for surprise attacks like Operation Chenghiz Khan by Pakistan in 1971. The result is that the book argues that the strategic culture of a nation and its interplay with intelligence organisations and operations is important to understanding the conditions for intelligence failures and strategic surprises. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, Asian politics and International Relations.
Author :
Publisher : DIANE Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1428910166
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (289 download)
Download or read book Transformation and Strategic Surprise written by and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2005 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Though discounted by Clausewitz in the circumstances of his era, strategic surprise has enjoyed considerable popularity over the past century. The possibility of achieving decisive results from attacks launched on short, or zero, warning has appeared to improve greatly with advances in technology. It follows that surprise has been recognized as offering what seem to be both golden opportunities and lethal dangers. Since surprise is an ironbound necessity for the tactical success of terrorism, it is understandable that it attracts a major degree of attention today. There is no real novelty about this. After all, for 40 years the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies perpetually worried about surprise attack on the Central Front in Europe, as well as about a surprise first strike designed to disarm the United States of its ability to retaliate with its strategic nuclear forces.
Author : Paul Bracken
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521709606
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (96 download)
Download or read book Managing Strategic Surprise written by Paul Bracken and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2008-08-07 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.
Author : Richard A. Posner
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 9780742549470
Total Pages : 242 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (494 download)
Download or read book Preventing Surprise Attacks written by Richard A. Posner and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2005 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Posner discusses the utter futilty of this reform act in a searing critique of the 9/11 Commission, its recommendations, Congress's role in making law, and the law's inability to do what it is intended to do.
Author : Michael I. Handel
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136286314
Total Pages : 500 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (362 download)
Download or read book War, Strategy and Intelligence written by Michael I. Handel and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-11-12 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investigating the logic, conduct and nature of war on the highest political and strategic levels, these essays put less emphasis on operational and tactical aspects. They look at the impact of technology on warfare, the political nature of war and the limits of rational analysis in studying war.
