Radical Uncertainty

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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Author : John Kay
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 1324004789
Total Pages : 407 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers by : John Kay

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers written by John Kay and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2020-03-17 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book, now with a preface on COVID-19. Invented numbers offer a false sense of security; we need instead robust narratives that give us the confidence to manage uncertainty. “An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable." — Christine Kenneally, New York Times Book Review Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one—not least Steve Jobs—knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package—what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?—demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.

Radical Uncertainty

Author : Mervyn King
Publisher : Bridge Street Press
ISBN 13 : 9780349143996
Total Pages : 560 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (439 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Uncertainty by : Mervyn King

Download or read book Radical Uncertainty written by Mervyn King and published by Bridge Street Press. This book was released on 2021-09-02 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

Author : Frank H. Knight
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1602060053
Total Pages : 401 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by : Frank H. Knight

Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy

Author : Mervyn King
Publisher : W. W. Norton & Company
ISBN 13 : 0393247031
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (932 download)

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Book Synopsis The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy by : Mervyn King

Download or read book The End of Alchemy: Money, Banking, and the Future of the Global Economy written by Mervyn King and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2016-03-21 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Mervyn King may well have written the most important book to come out of the financial crisis. Agree or disagree, King’s visionary ideas deserve the attention of everyone from economics students to heads of state.” —Lawrence H. Summers Something is wrong with our banking system. We all sense that, but Mervyn King knows it firsthand; his ten years at the helm of the Bank of England, including at the height of the financial crisis, revealed profound truths about the mechanisms of our capitalist society. In The End of Alchemy he offers us an essential work about the history and future of money and banking, the keys to modern finance. The Industrial Revolution built the foundation of our modern capitalist age. Yet the flowering of technological innovations during that dynamic period relied on the widespread adoption of two much older ideas: the creation of paper money and the invention of banks that issued credit. We take these systems for granted today, yet at their core both ideas were revolutionary and almost magical. Common paper became as precious as gold, and risky long-term loans were transformed into safe short-term bank deposits. As King argues, this is financial alchemy—the creation of extraordinary financial powers that defy reality and common sense. Faith in these powers has led to huge benefits; the liquidity they create has fueled economic growth for two centuries now. However, they have also produced an unending string of economic disasters, from hyperinflations to banking collapses to the recent global recession and current stagnation. How do we reconcile the potent strengths of these ideas with their inherent weaknesses? King draws on his unique experience to present fresh interpretations of these economic forces and to point the way forward for the global economy. His bold solutions cut through current overstuffed and needlessly complex legislation to provide a clear path to durable prosperity and the end of overreliance on the alchemy of our financial ancestors.

Obliquity

Author : John Kay
Publisher : Profile Books
ISBN 13 : 1847651852
Total Pages : 297 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (476 download)

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Book Synopsis Obliquity by : John Kay

Download or read book Obliquity written by John Kay and published by Profile Books. This book was released on 2011-02-03 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: If you want to go in one direction, the best route may involve going in another. This is the concept of 'obliquity': paradoxical as it sounds, many goals are more likely to be achieved when pursued indirectly. The richest men and women are not the most materialistic; the happiest people are not necessarily those who focus on happiness, and the most profitable companies are not always the most profit-oriented as the recent financial crisis showed us. Whether overcoming geographical obstacles, winning decisive battles or meeting sales targets, history shows that oblique approaches are the most successful, especially in difficult terrain. John Kay applies his provocative, universal theory to everything from international business to town planning and from football to managing forest fire.

Jean Baudrillard: pt. 1. Theoretical issues

Author : Mike Gane
Publisher : SAGE Publications Limited
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 440 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Jean Baudrillard: pt. 1. Theoretical issues by : Mike Gane

Download or read book Jean Baudrillard: pt. 1. Theoretical issues written by Mike Gane and published by SAGE Publications Limited. This book was released on 2000-12-19 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A monograph in four volumes subdivided into eight parts covering the critical discourse on central topics in Jean Baudrillards work. The volumes and parts are: Vol. I. Part One: Theoretical Issues. Part Two: Postmodernism. Vol. II. Part Three: Culture. Part Four: War. Vol. III. Part Five: America. Part Six: Seduction. Part Seven: Fiction and Art. Vol. IV, Part Seven: Fiction and Art (cont.). Baudrillard and Other Theorists

Comfortable with Uncertainty

Author : Pema Chödrön
Publisher : Shambhala Publications
ISBN 13 : 1590305558
Total Pages : 255 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Comfortable with Uncertainty by : Pema Chödrön

Download or read book Comfortable with Uncertainty written by Pema Chödrön and published by Shambhala Publications. This book was released on 2008 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tibetan Buddhist nun Pema Chodron offers short, stand-alone readings designed to help readers cultivate compassion and awareness amid the challenges of daily living.

Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty

Author : Itzhak Gilboa
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 052151732X
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (215 download)

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Book Synopsis Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty by : Itzhak Gilboa

Download or read book Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2009-03-16 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques.

The End of Theory

Author : Richard Bookstaber
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691191859
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis The End of Theory by : Richard Bookstaber

Download or read book The End of Theory written by Richard Bookstaber and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-04-02 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An in-depth look at how to account for the human complexities at the heart of today’s financial system Our economy may have recovered from the Great Recession—but not our economics. The End of Theory discusses why the human condition and the radical uncertainty of our world renders the standard economic model—and the theory behind it—useless for dealing with financial crises. What model should replace it? None. At least not any version we’ve been using for the past two hundred years. Richard Bookstaber argues for a new approach called agent-based economics, one that takes as a starting point the fact that we are humans, not the optimizing automatons that standard economics assumes we are. Sweeping aside the historic failure of twentieth-century economics, The End of Theory offers a novel perspective and more realistic framework to help prevent today's financial system from blowing up again.

Practical Wisdom

Author : Barry Schwartz
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 1594485437
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (944 download)

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Book Synopsis Practical Wisdom by : Barry Schwartz

Download or read book Practical Wisdom written by Barry Schwartz and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2011-11-01 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A reasoned and urgent call to embrace and protect the essential human quality that has been drummed out of our lives: wisdom. In their provocative new book, Barry Schwartz and Kenneth Sharpe explore the insights essential to leading satisfying lives. Encouraging individuals to focus on their own personal intelligence and integrity rather than simply navigating the rules and incentives established by others, Practical Wisdom outlines how to identify and cultivate our own innate wisdom in our daily lives.

Speculation, Now

Author : Vyjayanthi Venuturupalli Rao
Publisher : Duke University Press
ISBN 13 : 0822375907
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (223 download)

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Book Synopsis Speculation, Now by : Vyjayanthi Venuturupalli Rao

Download or read book Speculation, Now written by Vyjayanthi Venuturupalli Rao and published by Duke University Press. This book was released on 2015-03-12 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Interdisciplinary in design and concept, Speculation, Now illuminates unexpected convergences between images, concepts, and language. Artwork is interspersed among essays that approach speculation and progressive change from surprising perspectives. A radical cartographer asks whether "the speculative" can be represented on a map. An ethnographer investigates religious possession in Islam to contemplate states between the divine and the seemingly human. A financial technologist queries understandings of speculation in financial markets. A multimedia artist and activist considers the relation between social change and assumptions about the conditions to be changed, and an architect posits purposeful neglect as political strategy. The book includes an extensive glossary with more than twenty short entries in which scholars contemplate such speculation-related notions as insurance, hallucination, prophecy, the paradox of beginnings, and states of half-knowledge. The book's artful, nonlinear design mirrors and reinforces the notion of contingency that animates it. By embracing speculation substantively, stylistically, seriously, and playfully, Speculation, Now reveals its subversive and critical potential. Artists and essayists include William Darity Jr., Filip De Boeck, Boris Groys, Hans Haacke, Darrick Hamilton, Laura Kurgan, Lin + Lam, Gary Lincoff, Lize Mogel, Christina Moon, Stefania Pandolfo, Satya Pemmaraju, Mary Poovey, Walid Raad, Sherene Schostak, Robert Sember, and Srdjan Jovanovic Weiss. Published by Duke University Press and the Vera List Center for Art and Politics at The New School

Radical Innovation

Author : Richard Leifer
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
ISBN 13 : 9780875849034
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (49 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Innovation by : Richard Leifer

Download or read book Radical Innovation written by Richard Leifer and published by Harvard Business Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text aims to prove that established companies can implement revolutionary innovations, and that it is not limited to the realm of startup companies.

Taming Uncertainty

Author : Ralph Hertwig
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262353148
Total Pages : 489 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Taming Uncertainty by : Ralph Hertwig

Download or read book Taming Uncertainty written by Ralph Hertwig and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-08-13 with total page 489 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure? Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty. Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do. Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty. They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others. This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change. They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality—that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments. Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.

Vienna in the Age of Uncertainty

Author : Deborah R. Coen
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226111784
Total Pages : 394 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (261 download)

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Book Synopsis Vienna in the Age of Uncertainty by : Deborah R. Coen

Download or read book Vienna in the Age of Uncertainty written by Deborah R. Coen and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-09-15 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Vienna in the Age of Uncertainty traces the vital and varied roles of science through the story of three generations of the eminent Exner family, whose members included Nobel Prize–winning biologist Karl Frisch, the teachers of Freud and of physicist Erwin Schrödinger, artists of the Vienna Secession, and a leader of Vienna’s women’s movement. Training her critical eye on the Exners through the rise and fall of Austrian liberalism and into the rise of the Third Reich, Deborah R. Coen demonstrates the interdependence of the family’s scientific and domestic lives, exploring the ways in which public notions of rationality, objectivity, and autonomy were formed in the private sphere. Vienna in the Age of Uncertainty presents the story of the Exners as a microcosm of the larger achievements and tragedies of Austrian political and scientific life in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.

Uncertainty

Author : David Lindley
Publisher : Anchor
ISBN 13 : 0307389480
Total Pages : 274 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (73 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : David Lindley

Download or read book Uncertainty written by David Lindley and published by Anchor. This book was released on 2008-02-12 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gripping, entertaining, and vividly-told narrative of a radical discovery that sent shockwaves through the scientific community and forever changed the way we understand the world. Werner Heisenberg’s “uncertainty principle” challenged centuries of scientific understanding, placed him in direct opposition to Albert Einstein, and put Niels Bohr in the middle of one of the most heated debates in scientific history. Heisenberg’s theorem stated that there were physical limits to what we could know about sub-atomic particles; this “uncertainty” would have shocking implications. In a riveting and lively account, David Lindley captures this critical episode and explains one of the most important scientific discoveries in history, which has since transcended the boundaries of science and influenced everything from literary theory to television.

How We Learn

Author : Stanislas Dehaene
Publisher : Penguin
ISBN 13 : 0525559906
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (255 download)

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Book Synopsis How We Learn by : Stanislas Dehaene

Download or read book How We Learn written by Stanislas Dehaene and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2021-02-02 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “There are words that are so familiar they obscure rather than illuminate the thing they mean, and ‘learning’ is such a word. It seems so ordinary, everyone does it. Actually it’s more of a black box, which Dehaene cracks open to reveal the awesome secrets within.”--The New York Times Book Review An illuminating dive into the latest science on our brain's remarkable learning abilities and the potential of the machines we program to imitate them The human brain is an extraordinary learning machine. Its ability to reprogram itself is unparalleled, and it remains the best source of inspiration for recent developments in artificial intelligence. But how do we learn? What innate biological foundations underlie our ability to acquire new information, and what principles modulate their efficiency? In How We Learn, Stanislas Dehaene finds the boundary of computer science, neurobiology, and cognitive psychology to explain how learning really works and how to make the best use of the brain’s learning algorithms in our schools and universities, as well as in everyday life and at any age.

Radical Knowing

Author : Christian de Quincey
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 1594777160
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (947 download)

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Book Synopsis Radical Knowing by : Christian de Quincey

Download or read book Radical Knowing written by Christian de Quincey and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2005-08-16 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A radical reassessment of what we mean by "consciousness" and how we experience it in relation to others • Shows the importance of integrating different ways of knowing--such as feeling and intuition, reason and the senses--in our approach to life • Discusses the technique of Bohmian Dialogue where you can learn not only to "feel your thinking," but also to experience true communion with others In Radical Knowing Christian de Quincey makes a provocative claim: We are not who we think we are. Instead, we are what we feel. Giving disciplined attention to feelings reveals the most fundamental fact of life and reality: We are our relationships. Most of us think we are individuals first and foremost who then come together to form relationships. De Quincey turns this "obvious fact" on its head and shows that relationship comes first, and that our individual sense of self--our "private" consciousness--actually arises from shared consciousness. This shared, collective consciousness is at the heart of indigenous ways of life and their worldviews. De Quincey explains that participating in shared consciousness literally builds the fabric of reality, and that understanding this process is key to unlocking our potential for higher consciousness and spiritual evolution. He presents the technique of Bohmian Dialogue, developed by groundbreaking quantum physicist David Bohm, as one method for experiencing this powerful process. He also explores the mystery of synchronicity, offering a new understanding of the relationship between matter and mind and the underlying nature of reality.