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Predicting The Presidency
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Book Synopsis Predicting the Next President by : Allan J. Lichtman
Download or read book Predicting the Next President written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2024-07-01 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!
Book Synopsis Predicting the Presidency by : George C. Edwards III
Download or read book Predicting the Presidency written by George C. Edwards III and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-03-22 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Millions of Americans—including many experienced politicians—viewed Barack Obama through a prism of high expectations, based on a belief in the power of presidential persuasion. Yet many who were inspired by candidate Obama were disappointed in what he was able to accomplish once in the White House. They could not understand why he often was unable to leverage his position and political skills to move the public and Congress to support his initiatives. Predicting the Presidency explains why Obama had such difficulty bringing about the change he promised, and challenges the conventional wisdom about presidential leadership. In this incisive book, George Edwards shows how we can ask a few fundamental questions about the context of a presidency—the president's strategic position or opportunity structure—and use the answers to predict a president's success in winning support for his initiatives. If presidential success is largely determined by a president's strategic position, what role does persuasion play? Almost every president finds that a significant segment of the public and his fellow partisans in Congress are predisposed to follow his lead. Others may support the White House out of self-interest. Edwards explores the possibilities of the president exploiting such support, providing a more realistic view of the potential of presidential persuasion. Written by a leading presidential scholar, Predicting the Presidency sheds new light on the limitations and opportunities of presidential leadership.
Book Synopsis The Keys to the White House by : Allan J. Lichtman
Download or read book The Keys to the White House written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by Lexington Books. This book was released on 2005 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prominent political analyst and historian Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or keys that have successfully predicted the outcome of presidential elections from 1860 to 2004. Read this book not only for a surprising look at the electoral process, but also for tips on calling the election in 2008.
Book Synopsis Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition by : Ray Fair
Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition written by Ray Fair and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-14 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.
Book Synopsis The Keys to the White House by : Allan Lichtman
Download or read book The Keys to the White House written by Allan Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. This book was released on 2008-02-15 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860—including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection—Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.
Book Synopsis Who Will be in the White House? by : Randall J. Jones
Download or read book Who Will be in the White House? written by Randall J. Jones and published by Longman Publishing Group. This book was released on 2002 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presenting models for making predictions about presidential elections, this brief supplementary text is accessible to students without a statistical background and features discussions of Election 2000 throughout. Well-grounded in elections theory, this new text introduces students to the major models used to forecast presidential elections and covers a variety of topics through that lens: approval ratings, exit polls, election cycles, nomination process and campaigns, performance of the economy, etc. Lucidly written, it offers an abundance of figures to illustrate concepts to students and include an easy-to-understand explanation of regression so that no prior knowledge of statistics is necessary to read the text. Professor Jones not only summarizes and utilizes the forecasting techniques employed by experts in the past, but brings in new techniques and tools, making a valuable contribution to the methodologies of presidential election forecasting.
Book Synopsis The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency by : Allan J. Lichtman
Download or read book The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by Madison Books. This book was released on 1992 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The revolutionary system that reveals how presidential elections really work from the civil war to the 21st century. As controversial as it is compelling this book fundamentally alters our understanding of presidential politics.
Book Synopsis Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things by : Ray C. Fair
Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things written by Ray C. Fair and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Presidential Character by : James David Barber
Download or read book The Presidential Character written by James David Barber and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-10-03 with total page 945 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dr. James David Barber's well-known, provocative examination of who has the potential to be voted into the highest office in the land - and why - is being reissued as the newest addition to the "Longman Classics in Political Science" series. Arguing that patterns in a person's character, world view, and style can allow us to anticipate their performance as president, The Presidential Character offers explanations and predictions of the performance of presidents and presidential candidates. Drawing on historical, biographical, and psychological research, Dr. Barber hoped to help voters make judicious choices in determining the country's highest leaders. Revisiting this classic work in today's important presidential election season begs a reconsideration of Barber's probing and enduring query, "What should we look for in a president?"
Book Synopsis Predicting the Next President by : Allan J Lichtman
Download or read book Predicting the Next President written by Allan J Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. This book was released on 2020-08-15 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the updated 2020 edition of this classic text, Allan J. Lichtman applies his trademark 13 keys to predicting the outcome of presidential elections to every election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 race, dispelling much of the mystery behind electo...
Book Synopsis It Can't Happen Here by : Sinclair Lewis
Download or read book It Can't Happen Here written by Sinclair Lewis and published by Penguin. This book was released on 2014-01-07 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “The novel that foreshadowed Donald Trump’s authoritarian appeal.”—Salon It Can’t Happen Here is the only one of Sinclair Lewis’s later novels to match the power of Main Street, Babbitt, and Arrowsmith. A cautionary tale about the fragility of democracy, it is an alarming, eerily timeless look at how fascism could take hold in America. Written during the Great Depression, when the country was largely oblivious to Hitler’s aggression, it juxtaposes sharp political satire with the chillingly realistic rise of a president who becomes a dictator to save the nation from welfare cheats, sex, crime, and a liberal press. Called “a message to thinking Americans” by the Springfield Republican when it was published in 1935, It Can’t Happen Here is a shockingly prescient novel that remains as fresh and contemporary as today’s news. Includes an Introduction by Michael Meyer and an Afterword by Gary Scharnhorst
Book Synopsis Forecasting Presidential Elections by : Steven J. Rosenstone
Download or read book Forecasting Presidential Elections written by Steven J. Rosenstone and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes a method for analyzing the forces that influence election results and predicting the outcome of elections for the president of the United States
Book Synopsis Presidential Leadership in Political Time by : Stephen Skowronek
Download or read book Presidential Leadership in Political Time written by Stephen Skowronek and published by University Press of Kansas. This book was released on 2020-01-30 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this expanded third edition, renowned scholar Stephen Skowronek, addresses Donald J. Trump’s presidency. Skowronek’s insights have fundamentally altered our understanding of the American presidency. His “political time” thesis has been particularly influential, revealing how presidents reckon with the work of their predecessors, situate their power within recent political events, and assert their authority in the service of change. A classic widely used in courses on the presidency, Skowronek’s book has greatly expanded our understanding of and debates over the politics of leadership. It clarifies the typical political problems that presidents confront in political time, as well as the likely effects of their working through them, and considers contemporary innovations in our political system that bear on the leadership patterns from the more distant past. Drawing out parallels in the politics of leadership between Andrew Jackson and Franklin Roosevelt and between James Polk and John Kennedy, it develops a new and revealing perspective on the presidential leadership of Clinton, Bush, Obama, and now Trump. In this third edition Skowronek carefully examines the impact of recent developments in government and politics on traditional leadership postures and their enactment, given the current divided state of the American polity, the impact of the twenty-four-hour news cycle, of a more disciplined and homogeneous Republican party, of conservative advocacy of the “unitary theory” of the executive, and of progressive disillusionment with the presidency as an institution. A provocative review of presidential history, Skowronek’s book brims with fresh insights and opens a window on the institution of the executive office and the workings of the American political system as a whole. Intellectually satisfying for scholars, it also provides an accessible volume for students and general readers interested in the American presidency.
Book Synopsis The Presidency of Donald J. Trump by : Julian E. Zelizer
Download or read book The Presidency of Donald J. Trump written by Julian E. Zelizer and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2022-04-12 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Donald Trump took office in 2017 amid an increasingly polarized political field. He quickly carved out a loyal base among the radical wing of the Republican party, dominated the news cycle with an endless stream of controversies, and, with the support of his voting base and party, presided over one of the most publicized, dramatic, and contentious one-term presidencies in American history. In The Presidency of Donald J. Trump, Julian Zelizer gathers leading American historians to put President Trump and his administration into political and historical context. These scholars offer strikingly original assessments of the central issues that shaped the Trump years, including the #MeToo and #BlackLivesMatter movements, Trump's crusade against media he dubbed "fake news," the border wall and immigration more broadly, the rapid rise of open white supremacy, the national COVID-19 response, the calls to "defund the police," the efforts to contest the outcome of the election, and the January 6th insurrection, among others. Together, these essays argue that the Trump presidency was not unprecedented, but it represented and emerged from the long-term development of the Republican Party and American polarization more broadly"--
Book Synopsis The Timeline of Presidential Elections by : Robert S. Erikson
Download or read book The Timeline of Presidential Elections written by Robert S. Erikson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-08-24 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
Book Synopsis The Reactionary Mind by : Corey Robin
Download or read book The Reactionary Mind written by Corey Robin and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018 with total page 353 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now updated to include Trump's election and the rise of global populism, Corey Robin's 'The Reactionary Mind' traces conservatism back to its roots in the reaction against the French Revolution.
Download or read book Predicting Success written by David Lahey and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-09-22 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Make the right hires every time, with an analytical approach totalent Predicting Success is a practical guide to finding theperfect member for your team. By applying the principles and toolsof human analytics to the workplace, you'll avoid bad culture fits,mismatched skillsets, entitled workers, and other hiring misstepsthat drain the team of productivity and morale. This book providesguidance toward implementing tools like the Predictive Index®,behavior analytics, hiring assessments, and other practicalresources to build your best team and achieve the best outcomes.Written by a human analytics specialist who applies theseprinciples daily, this book is the manager's guide to aligningpeople with business strategy to find the exact person your team ismissing. An avalanche of research describes an evolving businesslandscape that will soon be populated by workers in jobs that don'tfit. This is bad news for both the workers and the companies, asbad hires affect outcomes on the individual and organizationallevel, and can potentially hinder progress long after the situationhas been rectified. Predicting Success is a guide toavoiding that by integrating analytical tools into the hiringprocess from the start. Hire without the worry of mismatched expectations Apply practical analytics tools to the hiring process Build the right team and avoid disconnected or dissatisfiedworkers Stop seeing candidates as "chances," and start seeing them asopportunities Analytics has proved to be integral in the finance, tech,marketing, and banking industries, but when applied to talentacquisition, it can build the team that takes the company to thenext level. If the future will be full of unhappy workers inunderperforming companies, getting out from under that weight aheadof time would confer a major advantage. Predicting Successprovides evidence-based strategies that help you find precisely thetalent you need.
