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Author : Steven J. Rosenstone
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 720 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (29 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Presidential Elections written by Steven J. Rosenstone and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 720 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ray Fair
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804778027
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)
Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition written by Ray Fair and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-14 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.
Author : Steven J. Rosenstone
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780300026917
Total Pages : 211 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (269 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Presidential Elections written by Steven J. Rosenstone and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes a method for analyzing the forces that influence election results and predicting the outcome of elections for the president of the United States
Author : Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Elections written by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description.
Author : Randall J. Jones
Publisher : Longman Publishing Group
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Who Will be in the White House? written by Randall J. Jones and published by Longman Publishing Group. This book was released on 2002 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presenting models for making predictions about presidential elections, this brief supplementary text is accessible to students without a statistical background and features discussions of Election 2000 throughout. Well-grounded in elections theory, this new text introduces students to the major models used to forecast presidential elections and covers a variety of topics through that lens: approval ratings, exit polls, election cycles, nomination process and campaigns, performance of the economy, etc. Lucidly written, it offers an abundance of figures to illustrate concepts to students and include an easy-to-understand explanation of regression so that no prior knowledge of statistics is necessary to read the text. Professor Jones not only summarizes and utilizes the forecasting techniques employed by experts in the past, but brings in new techniques and tools, making a valuable contribution to the methodologies of presidential election forecasting.
Author : Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (818 download)
Download or read book Predicting the Next President written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2024-07-01 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!
Author : Robert S. Erikson
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226922162
Total Pages : 221 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)
Download or read book The Timeline of Presidential Elections written by Robert S. Erikson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-08-24 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
Author : James E. Campbell
Publisher : Texas A&M University Press
ISBN 13 : 1603444475
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (34 download)
Download or read book The American Campaign, Second Edition written by James E. Campbell and published by Texas A&M University Press. This book was released on 2008 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reporting data and predicting trends through the 2008 campaign, this classroom-tested volume offers again James E. Campbell's "theory of the predictable campaign," incorporating the fundamental conditions that systematically affect the presidential vote: political competition, presidential incumbency, and election-year economic conditions. Campbell's cogent thinking and clear style present students with a readable survey of presidential elections and political scientists' ways of studying them. The American Campaign also shows how and why journalists have mistakenly assigned a pattern of unpredictability and critical significance to the vagaries of individual campaigns. This excellent election-year text provides:a summary and assessment of each of the serious predictive models of presidential election outcomes;a historical summary of many of America's important presidential elections;a significant new contribution to the understanding of presidential campaigns and how they matter.
Author : Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher : Lexington Books
ISBN 13 : 9780739112656
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (126 download)
Download or read book The Keys to the White House written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by Lexington Books. This book was released on 2005 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prominent political analyst and historian Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or keys that have successfully predicted the outcome of presidential elections from 1860 to 2004. Read this book not only for a surprising look at the electoral process, but also for tips on calling the election in 2008.
Author : Lynn Vavreck
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780691139630
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (396 download)
Download or read book The Message Matters written by Lynn Vavreck and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2009-07-26 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Demonstrating how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, this book provides a different way of understanding past elections - and predicting future ones. It offers a theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions.
Author : Andrea Ceron
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1317134141
Total Pages : 178 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (171 download)
Download or read book Politics and Big Data written by Andrea Ceron and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2016-12-19 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.
Author : Jan E. Leighley
Publisher : Oxford University Press (UK)
ISBN 13 : 0199604517
Total Pages : 796 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (996 download)
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior written by Jan E. Leighley and published by Oxford University Press (UK). This book was released on 2012-02-16 with total page 796 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Oxford Handbooks of American Politics are the essential guide to the study of American political life in the 21st Century. With engaging contributions from the major figures in the field The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior provides the key point of reference for anyone working in American Politics today
Author : Anthony Corrado
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 9780815715849
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (158 download)
Download or read book Inside the Campaign Finance Battle written by Anthony Corrado and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2004-05-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2002 Congress enacted the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA), the first major revision of federal campaign finance law in a generation. In March 2001, after a fiercely contested and highly divisive seven-year partisan legislative battle, the Senate passed S. 27, known as the McCain-Feingold legislation. The House responded by passing H.R. 2356, companion legislation known as Shays-Meehan, in February 2002. The Senate then approved the House-passed version, and President George W. Bush signed BCRA into law on March 27, 2002, stating that the bill had "flaws" but overall "improves the current system of financing for federal campaigns." The Reform Act was taken to court within hours of the President's signature. Dozens of interest groups and lawmakers who had opposed passage of the Act in Congress lodged complaints that challenged the constitutionality of virtually every aspect of the new law. Following review by a special three-judge panel, the case is expected to reach the U.S. Supreme Court in 2003. This litigation constitutes the most important campaign finance case since the Supreme Court issued its decision in Buckley v. Valeo more than twenty-five years ago. The testimony, submitted by some of the country's most knowledgeable political scientists and most experienced politicians, constitutes an invaluable body of knowledge about the complexities of campaign finance and the role of money in our political system. Unfortunately, only the lawyers, political scientists, and practitioners actually involved in the litigation have seen most of this writing—until now. Ins ide the Campaign Finance Battle makes key testimony in this historic case available to a general readership, in the process shedding new light on campaign finance practices central to the congressional debate on the reform act and to the landmark litigation challenging its constitutionality.
Author : Herbert F. Weisberg
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780804748568
Total Pages : 324 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (485 download)
Download or read book Models of Voting in Presidential Elections written by Herbert F. Weisberg and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Chapters in this book were originally commissioned for a conference ... held at the Mershon Center on the Ohio State University campus, March 7-10, 2002"--Preface.
Author : James E. Campbell
Publisher : SAGE Publications, Incorporated
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 240 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Before the Vote written by James E. Campbell and published by SAGE Publications, Incorporated. This book was released on 2000 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the last 50 years, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. This book brings together some of the leading figures in political science to present their election forecasts, discuss their methodology and present their critiques of the forecasting enterprise. They consider whether ever more accurate models of predicting voting behaviour damage the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus as to who the winner will be.
Author : Michael E. O'Hanlon
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 0815731310
Total Pages : 416 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (157 download)
Download or read book Brookings Big Ideas for America written by Michael E. O'Hanlon and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2017 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a new administration takes office, what are the biggest issues facing the country? The Brookings Institution offers answers to that question in this volume, which continues the Brookings tradition of providing each incoming administration with a nonpartisan analysis of the major domestic and foreign questions confronting America. On the domestic front, Brookings scholars tackle topics ranging from health care and improving economic opportunity to criminal justice reform, lawful hacking, and improving infrastructure. The alliance system, the relationship with China, nuclear weapons, terrorism, and the ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan and Syria among the foreign policies issues addressed. Throughout, Brookings scholars share their individual ideas on how best to address the agenda that awaits the new administration.
Author : Thomas Holbrook
Publisher : SAGE Publications
ISBN 13 : 1506338178
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (63 download)
Download or read book Do Campaigns Matter? written by Thomas Holbrook and published by SAGE Publications. This book was released on 1996-06-18 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A thorough examination of the impact of campaign politics on presidential elections in the United States is presented in this book. Using actual election results and empirical evidence, the author also incorporates data on additional factors such as media coverage, the impact of nominating conventions on public opinion, presidential debates, and other events such as staff shake-ups, endorsements and scandals. In so doing, Holbrook develops a model for testing campaigns and proves how campaigns play a key role in shaping public opinion and, ultimately, influencing outcomes.
