Predicting Presidential Elections And Other Things

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Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition

Author : Ray Fair
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0804778027
Total Pages : 232 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition by : Ray Fair

Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition written by Ray Fair and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-14 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things

Author : Ray C. Fair
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (115 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things by : Ray C. Fair

Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things written by Ray C. Fair and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Predicting the Next President

Author : Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (818 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting the Next President by : Allan J. Lichtman

Download or read book Predicting the Next President written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2024-07-01 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!

Forecasting Presidential Elections

Author : Steven J. Rosenstone
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 720 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (29 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Presidential Elections by : Steven J. Rosenstone

Download or read book Forecasting Presidential Elections written by Steven J. Rosenstone and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 720 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Who Will be in the White House?

Author : Randall J. Jones
Publisher : Longman Publishing Group
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 188 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Who Will be in the White House? by : Randall J. Jones

Download or read book Who Will be in the White House? written by Randall J. Jones and published by Longman Publishing Group. This book was released on 2002 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presenting models for making predictions about presidential elections, this brief supplementary text is accessible to students without a statistical background and features discussions of Election 2000 throughout. Well-grounded in elections theory, this new text introduces students to the major models used to forecast presidential elections and covers a variety of topics through that lens: approval ratings, exit polls, election cycles, nomination process and campaigns, performance of the economy, etc. Lucidly written, it offers an abundance of figures to illustrate concepts to students and include an easy-to-understand explanation of regression so that no prior knowledge of statistics is necessary to read the text. Professor Jones not only summarizes and utilizes the forecasting techniques employed by experts in the past, but brings in new techniques and tools, making a valuable contribution to the methodologies of presidential election forecasting.

Understanding Elections through Statistics

Author : Ole J. Forsberg
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000205746
Total Pages : 209 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Elections through Statistics by : Ole J. Forsberg

Download or read book Understanding Elections through Statistics written by Ole J. Forsberg and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-02 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable: Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math—or to focus on it End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections. Author Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.

The Timeline of Presidential Elections

Author : Robert S. Erikson
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226922162
Total Pages : 221 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)

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Book Synopsis The Timeline of Presidential Elections by : Robert S. Erikson

Download or read book The Timeline of Presidential Elections written by Robert S. Erikson and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-08-24 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.

The Keys to the White House

Author : Allan Lichtman
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
ISBN 13 : 1461644577
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (616 download)

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Book Synopsis The Keys to the White House by : Allan Lichtman

Download or read book The Keys to the White House written by Allan Lichtman and published by Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. This book was released on 2008-02-15 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860—including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection—Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.

Forecasting Presidential Elections

Author : Steven J. Rosenstone
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780300026917
Total Pages : 211 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (269 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Presidential Elections by : Steven J. Rosenstone

Download or read book Forecasting Presidential Elections written by Steven J. Rosenstone and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 211 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes a method for analyzing the forces that influence election results and predicting the outcome of elections for the president of the United States

The Keys to the White House, 1996

Author : Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis The Keys to the White House, 1996 by : Allan J. Lichtman

Download or read book The Keys to the White House, 1996 written by Allan J. Lichtman and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: You don't need to be a pollster, pundit or political scientist to predict the next president. Find out why campaigns are not necessary.

Forecasting Elections

Author : Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 184 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Elections by : Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Download or read book Forecasting Elections written by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description.

Predicting Party Sizes

Author : Rein Taagepera
Publisher : Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN 13 : 0199287740
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (992 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Party Sizes by : Rein Taagepera

Download or read book Predicting Party Sizes written by Rein Taagepera and published by Oxford University Press on Demand. This book was released on 2007-08-23 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Predicting Party Sizes connects party systems and government duration to electoral systems. This book provides an overview of electoral systems, worldwide, and supplies evidence for models that tie simple electoral systems to the number and sizes of parties and government duration.

How to Predict Elections

Author : Louis Hyman Bean
Publisher : Praeger
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis How to Predict Elections by : Louis Hyman Bean

Download or read book How to Predict Elections written by Louis Hyman Bean and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1948 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Web Information Systems Engineering -- WISE 2014

Author : Boualem Benatallah
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319117467
Total Pages : 553 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Web Information Systems Engineering -- WISE 2014 by : Boualem Benatallah

Download or read book Web Information Systems Engineering -- WISE 2014 written by Boualem Benatallah and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-09-11 with total page 553 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the proceedings of the 15th International Conference on Web Information Systems Engineering, WISE 2014, held in Thessaloniki, Greece, in October 2014. The 52 full papers, 16 short and 14 poster papers, presented in the two-volume proceedings LNCS 8786 and 8787 were carefully reviewed and selected from 196 submissions. They are organized in topical sections named: Web mining, modeling and classification; Web querying and searching; Web recommendation and personalization; semantic Web; social online networks; software architectures amd platforms; Web technologies and frameworks; Web innovation and applications; and challenge.

Introduction to Data Science

Author : Rafael A. Irizarry
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000708039
Total Pages : 794 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Data Science by : Rafael A. Irizarry

Download or read book Introduction to Data Science written by Rafael A. Irizarry and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-11-20 with total page 794 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction to Data Science: Data Analysis and Prediction Algorithms with R introduces concepts and skills that can help you tackle real-world data analysis challenges. It covers concepts from probability, statistical inference, linear regression, and machine learning. It also helps you develop skills such as R programming, data wrangling, data visualization, predictive algorithm building, file organization with UNIX/Linux shell, version control with Git and GitHub, and reproducible document preparation. This book is a textbook for a first course in data science. No previous knowledge of R is necessary, although some experience with programming may be helpful. The book is divided into six parts: R, data visualization, statistics with R, data wrangling, machine learning, and productivity tools. Each part has several chapters meant to be presented as one lecture. The author uses motivating case studies that realistically mimic a data scientist’s experience. He starts by asking specific questions and answers these through data analysis so concepts are learned as a means to answering the questions. Examples of the case studies included are: US murder rates by state, self-reported student heights, trends in world health and economics, the impact of vaccines on infectious disease rates, the financial crisis of 2007-2008, election forecasting, building a baseball team, image processing of hand-written digits, and movie recommendation systems. The statistical concepts used to answer the case study questions are only briefly introduced, so complementing with a probability and statistics textbook is highly recommended for in-depth understanding of these concepts. If you read and understand the chapters and complete the exercises, you will be prepared to learn the more advanced concepts and skills needed to become an expert.

Predictive Analytics

Author : Eric Siegel
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119145686
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (191 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictive Analytics by : Eric Siegel

Download or read book Predictive Analytics written by Eric Siegel and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-01-13 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Mesmerizing & fascinating..." —The Seattle Post-Intelligencer "The Freakonomics of big data." —Stein Kretsinger, founding executive of Advertising.com Award-winning | Used by over 30 universities | Translated into 9 languages An introduction for everyone. In this rich, fascinating — surprisingly accessible — introduction, leading expert Eric Siegel reveals how predictive analytics (aka machine learning) works, and how it affects everyone every day. Rather than a “how to” for hands-on techies, the book serves lay readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction is booming. It reinvents industries and runs the world. Companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities are seizing upon the power. These institutions predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die. Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats risk, boosts sales, fortifies healthcare, streamlines manufacturing, conquers spam, optimizes social networks, toughens crime fighting, and wins elections. How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, flourishing unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn. Predictive analytics (aka machine learning) unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future drives millions of decisions more effectively, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate. In this lucid, captivating introduction — now in its Revised and Updated edition — former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they even know it themselves. Why early retirement predicts a shorter life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. Five reasons why organizations predict death — including one health insurance company. How U.S. Bank and Obama for America calculated the way to most strongly persuade each individual. Why the NSA wants all your data: machine learning supercomputers to fight terrorism. How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide how long convicts remain in prison. 182 examples from Airbnb, the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, the IRS, LinkedIn, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, PayPal, Pfizer, Spotify, Uber, UPS, Wikipedia, and more. How does predictive analytics work? This jam-packed book satisfies by demystifying the intriguing science under the hood. For future hands-on practitioners pursuing a career in the field, it sets a strong foundation, delivers the prerequisite knowledge, and whets your appetite for more. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics constantly affects our daily lives. Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.

Inside the Campaign Finance Battle

Author : Anthony Corrado
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 13 : 9780815715849
Total Pages : 512 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (158 download)

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Book Synopsis Inside the Campaign Finance Battle by : Anthony Corrado

Download or read book Inside the Campaign Finance Battle written by Anthony Corrado and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2004-05-26 with total page 512 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2002 Congress enacted the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA), the first major revision of federal campaign finance law in a generation. In March 2001, after a fiercely contested and highly divisive seven-year partisan legislative battle, the Senate passed S. 27, known as the McCain-Feingold legislation. The House responded by passing H.R. 2356, companion legislation known as Shays-Meehan, in February 2002. The Senate then approved the House-passed version, and President George W. Bush signed BCRA into law on March 27, 2002, stating that the bill had "flaws" but overall "improves the current system of financing for federal campaigns." The Reform Act was taken to court within hours of the President's signature. Dozens of interest groups and lawmakers who had opposed passage of the Act in Congress lodged complaints that challenged the constitutionality of virtually every aspect of the new law. Following review by a special three-judge panel, the case is expected to reach the U.S. Supreme Court in 2003. This litigation constitutes the most important campaign finance case since the Supreme Court issued its decision in Buckley v. Valeo more than twenty-five years ago. The testimony, submitted by some of the country's most knowledgeable political scientists and most experienced politicians, constitutes an invaluable body of knowledge about the complexities of campaign finance and the role of money in our political system. Unfortunately, only the lawyers, political scientists, and practitioners actually involved in the litigation have seen most of this writing—until now. Ins ide the Campaign Finance Battle makes key testimony in this historic case available to a general readership, in the process shedding new light on campaign finance practices central to the congressional debate on the reform act and to the landmark litigation challenging its constitutionality.