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Potential Effects Of Climate Change And Adaptive Strategies For Lake Simcoe And The Wetlands And Streams Within The Watershed
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Book Synopsis Potential Effects of Climate Change and Adaptive Strategies for Lake Simcoe and the Wetlands and Streams Within the Watershed by : Cindy Chu
Download or read book Potential Effects of Climate Change and Adaptive Strategies for Lake Simcoe and the Wetlands and Streams Within the Watershed written by Cindy Chu and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changes in air temperatures, precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events associated with climate change have and will continue to influence aquatic ecosystems. Increased water temperatures, changes in the timing of the spring freshet, the duration of ice-cover, and the composition of wetlands have been already documented in several systems. Lake Simcoe and the wetlands and streams within the Lake Simcoe Watershed are also being affected by climate change. The objectives of this study were to (1) use ecological indicators to assess the potential effects of climate change and (2) apply those results to inform the development of a climate change adaptation strategy for aquatic ecosystems within the Lake Simcoe Watershed. For each ecosystem, physical habitat changes associated with climate change were paired with a biological indicator.--Document.
Book Synopsis Responding to the Effects of Climate Change in the Lake Simcoe Watershed by : Vidya Anderson
Download or read book Responding to the Effects of Climate Change in the Lake Simcoe Watershed written by Vidya Anderson and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "As part of the government's overall strategy to protect and restore the ecological health of the Lake Simcoe Watershed, the Lake Simcoe Protection Act received Royal Assent in December 2008. The Act has provided the authority for the establishment of the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan, which includes provisions to manage for climate change. This plan contains a specific climate change policy to guide provincial government ministries, First Nations and Métis communities, the Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority (LSRCA), municipalities, and interested academic institutions in developing a climate change adaptation strategy for the Lake Simcoe Watershed. In this report, the approach, methods, and results of a multi-partner initiative to assess the vulnerabilities of natural and man-made systems to climate change and list options for climate change adaptation for the Lake Simcoe Watershed are described"--Summary.
Book Synopsis Water, Climate Change, and Forests by : Michael J. Furniss
Download or read book Water, Climate Change, and Forests written by Michael J. Furniss and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a print on demand edition of a hard to find publication. Water from forested watersheds provides irreplaceable habitat for aquatic and riparian species and supports our homes, farms, industries, and energy production. Yet population pressures, land uses, and rapid climate change combine to seriously threaten these waters and the resilience of watersheds in most places. Forest land managers are expected to anticipate and respond to these threats and steward forested watersheds to ensure the sustained protection and provision of water and the services it provides. Contents of this report: (1) Intro.; (2) Background: Forests and Water; Climate Change: Hydrologic Responses and Ecosystem Services; (3) Moving Forward: Think; Collaborate; Act; (4) Closing; (5) Examples of Watershed Stewardship. Illus.
Book Synopsis Implications of Climate Change for Strategic Conservation and Restoration of Tidal Wetlands in the U.S. Portion of the Salish Sea by : Brittany Robinson Jones
Download or read book Implications of Climate Change for Strategic Conservation and Restoration of Tidal Wetlands in the U.S. Portion of the Salish Sea written by Brittany Robinson Jones and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Coastal ecosystems are potentially at risk of sea level rise and other accelerated changes in climate. The overall goal of this thesis was to explore the potential influences of spatially varied climate change impacts on tidal wetlands in the U.S. portion of the Salish Sea and discuss implications for strategic conservation and restoration of current and future wetland areas. Since sediment accretion is a vital mechanism for tidal wetland persistence under sea level rise, the overall objective of Chapter 1 was to determine the relationship between sediment accretion rate and surface elevation in a restored and a natural tidal wetland in the Stillaguamish River delta. In the restored zone, there was a negative linear relationship between sediment accretion rates and surface elevation but a quadratic relationship in the reference zone. Vegetation, including dominant vegetation species and vegetation height, also helped explain the pattern of sediment accretion rates. The objective of Chapter 2 was to conduct a spatial analysis of potential tidal wetland responses to future climate change in the U.S. portion of the Salish Sea in order to simulate the (1) overall change in wetland area, (2) potential for tidal wetlands to persist locally, and (3) opportunity for transgressive migration between initial conditions and 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100 under a low (0.5 m between 2000 and 2100) and high (1.4 m between 2000 and 2100) sea level rise scenario. Total tidal wetland area was projected to decline under both sea level rise scenarios, but some wetland types (e.g., emergent marsh) were projected to expand. Projected local persistence was greater for tidal flat and emergent marsh compared to transitional scrub-shrub and tidal swamp. While the projected area for transgressive migration was small, this process may serve as a buffer for wetland loss by providing dry land for the establishment of new wetland areas. Identifying variability in the adaptive capacity and opportunity for transgressive migration of tidal wetlands to climate change impacts is an important tool for prioritizing sites in order to protect wetlands and enhance their persistence and health into the future along with the ecosystem services they provide. The objectives of Chapter 3 were to model the projected changes in tidal wetlands in the U.S. portion of the Salish Sea without levee protection and to apply the findings of Chapter 2 to a framework of strategic conservation and restoration of tidal wetlands. The projected change in total wetland area between initial conditions and 2100 switched from a decline with levee protection to an expansion without levee protection in the San Juan and Whidbey sub-basins and the Skagit and Stillaguamish River deltas under both sea level rise scenarios. The Skagit, Stillaguamish, and Snohomish river deltas were identified as high priority for conservation and restoration based on historical potential and degradation level under a climate change context, followed by the Nooksack and Samish. In order for conservation and restoration efforts of tidal wetlands to be successful and persist into the future, this study shows that climate change should be considered to identify current and future tidal wetland areas that are projected to exist under the influence of accelerated sea level rise. Identifying priority deltas for tidal wetland conservation and restoration under a climate change framework will be beneficial for the allocation of resources in the short- and long-term.
Book Synopsis Climate Change Handbook for Regional Water Planning by :
Download or read book Climate Change Handbook for Regional Water Planning written by and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This handbook considers both climate change adaptation (reduction of impacts) and mitigation [greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction]. Quantitative tools and techniques for addressing both are introduced and discussed in order to prepare comprehensive IRWMPs [integrated regional water management plans]. A guide to assess the vulnerability of a watershed or region to climate change impacts is presented in this handbook, and guidelines to prioritize vulnerabilities are introduced. This handbook relies on approaches that have been developed and applied to regional watershed planning processes. This handbook also presents case studies that provide illustrative examples in which the latest science and methods on climate change, including uncertainty and adaptive management approaches, have been applied outside academia. While the available suite of climate change tools and analytical techniques for incorporating climate change is continually advancing and improving, the underlying planning processes outlined in this handbook should continue to provide a solid basis for comprehensive watershed planning. Improved decisions about water resources management systems, whether adapting them to future climate change or mitigating climate change through reductions in GHG emissions, should result from application of the framework in this handbook. This handbook presents the range of decisions that need to be made and the factors that go into making those decisions at a local or regional level." -- Foreword.
Book Synopsis Distinctive Impacts of Extreme Warm Season Precipitation and Climate Change on the Vulnerable Water Resources of the Southwestern United States by : Michael D. Sierks
Download or read book Distinctive Impacts of Extreme Warm Season Precipitation and Climate Change on the Vulnerable Water Resources of the Southwestern United States written by Michael D. Sierks and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation explores the influence of extreme precipitation and the potential impacts of climate change on the vulnerable water resources of the southwestern United States. Specifically, it focuses on 1) the characteristics, origins, and impacts of historical extreme warm-season precipitation in the Lake Mead watershed, 2) improving existing bias correction techniques for projected future streamflows, and 3) investigating the vulnerability of California's largest reservoir, Lake Shasta, to climate change under existing and adaptive operating protocols. Although the North American Monsoon (NAM) is the main driver of summertime climate variability in the American southwest, considerable knowledge gaps exist regarding its impact at the northern extent of the core region (northwestern Mexico, southern Arizona, and New Mexico). The first part of this dissertation catalogues historical extreme precipitation events in the Lake Mead watershed (located at the NAM's northern boundary) and identifies unique synoptic drivers of extreme precipitation between the canonical NAM region and watersheds to the north. From here, the dissertation shifts its focus from the historical period to future climate projections. Motivated by a desire to connect bias correction techniques to the underlying dynamics within earth systems models, a novel statistical method is developed for projected streamflow wherein data are windowed based on hydrograph-relative time, rather than Julian day. This method yields improved preservation of original climate model data for both extreme and non-extreme events. Utilizing these bias corrected streamflow projections, and a simplified model of operations at California's largest reservoir, Lake Shasta, developed by the author, coming threats to water supply and flood risk under existing operations and several forms of adaptive responses to climate change are analyzed. Compared to the historical period, we simulate 27% declines in carryover storage (storage on September 30th) at the end of the 21st century under a severe warming scenario if operations are left unchanged. Despite many simulated interventions favoring water supply over flood risk, historical levels of carryover storage were irretrievable at the end of the century under the warmer of the two warming scenarios examined in this study.
Book Synopsis Impacts of Land Cover and Climate Change on Water Resources in Suasco River Watershed by : Ammara Talib
Download or read book Impacts of Land Cover and Climate Change on Water Resources in Suasco River Watershed written by Ammara Talib and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ABSTRACT IMPACTS OF LAND COVER AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES IN SUASCO RIVER WATERSHED September 2015 AMMARA TALIB, BS., PUNJAB UNIVERSITY LAHORE MS., UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS AMHERST Directed by: Professor Tim Randhir Hydrological balance and biogeochemical processes in watershed are significantly influenced by changes in land use land cover (LULC) and climate change. Those changes can influence interception, evapotranspiration (ET), infiltration, soil moisture, water balance and biogeochemical cycling of carbon, nitrogen and other elements at regional to global scales. The impacts of these hydrological disturbances are generally reflected in form of increasing runoff rate and volume, more intense and frequent floods, decreasing groundwater recharge and base flow, elevated levels of sediments and increase in concentration of nutrients in both streams and shallow groundwater. Water quality of Sudbury, Assabet and Concord (SuAsCo) watershed in Massachusetts is also compromised because of influx of runoff, sediments and nutrients. There is a crucial need to evaluate the synergistic effects of LULC change and climate change on the water quality and water quantity in a watershed system. A watershed simulation model is used to simulate hydrologic processes and water quality changes in sediment loads, total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP). The model is calibrated and validated with field-measured data. Climatic scenarios are represented by downscaled regional projections from Global Climate Model (GCM) models and regional built out scenarios of LULC are used to assess the impacts of projected LULC and climate change on water quality and water quantity. Simultaneous changes in LULC and climate significantly affect the water resources in the SuAsCo River watershed. Change in climate increased ET (4.7 %) because of high temperature, but independent change in land cover reduced ET (6.5%) because of less available vegetation. Combined change in land cover and climate reduced ET (2.1%) overall, which indicates that land cover change has significant impact on ET. Change in climate increased total run off (6%) and this increase is more significant as compared to 2.7 % increase in total runoff caused by land cover change. Change in land cover increased surface runoff more significantly (69.2%) than 7.9 % increase caused by climate change. Combined change in land cover and climate further increased the average storm peak volume (12.8 percent) because of high precipitation and impervious area in future. There is a potential for reducing runoff, sediments and nutrients loads by using conservation policies and adaptation strategies. This research provides valuable information about the dynamics of watershed system, as well as the complex processes that impair water resources.
Book Synopsis Scenarios and Implications of Land Use and Climate Change on Water Quality in Mesoscale Agricultural Watersheds by : Bano B Mehdi
Download or read book Scenarios and Implications of Land Use and Climate Change on Water Quality in Mesoscale Agricultural Watersheds written by Bano B Mehdi and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A comparative study in two mesoscale, agricultural watersheds located in mid-latitude, developed regions (Altmühl River, Germany and in Pike River, Canada) investigated potential future land use change and climate change impacts on surface water quality. The two watersheds provided a unique opportunity to compare potential impacts of change in similar physical and climatological regions, yet under different political settings related to agricultural policies as well as water quality management and protection. The objectives of the research were to develop agricultural land use scenarios to apply to a hydrological model simultaneously with climate change simulations. This modelling framework allowed quantifying these combined impacts on streamflow, sediment loads, nitrate-nitrogen loads and concentrations, as well as total phosphorus loads and concentrations to the 2050 time horizon. The impacts of climate change were evaluated alone and then with land use change. Overall, the quality of surface water simulated in both watersheds will be deteriorated according to environmental standards set by the ministries by 2050 due to higher mean annual nutrient loads transported into the rivers. Climate change impacts were greater than land use change impacts; however land use change can have an important influence on water quality, depending on the magnitude of crop changes taking place. Field-level adaptation strategies in the Pike River were simulated to determine the extent of reducing the combined impacts of land use and climate change. The strategies were able to mitigate the combined impacts, and also to improve the quality of surface water compared to the in-stream nutrient concentrations in the reference simulation.In both watersheds, it was determined that the combined interaction between climate change and land use change in the hydrological model are non-linear. Examining the combined impacts are necessary to determine potential alterations in water quality in a basin since the direction and the magnitude are not predictable from the individual changes alone." --
Book Synopsis Estimating the Effects of Global Climate Change on Streamflow and Wetlands in the Watershed of the Pere Marquette River, Michigan by : Avram G. B. Primack
Download or read book Estimating the Effects of Global Climate Change on Streamflow and Wetlands in the Watershed of the Pere Marquette River, Michigan written by Avram G. B. Primack and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 358 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Climate Change and the Lake Simcoe Watershed by :
Download or read book Climate Change and the Lake Simcoe Watershed written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Fluvial Processes by : Robert Baidoc
Download or read book Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Fluvial Processes written by Robert Baidoc and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Watershed models are an important tool in regional planning and conservation efforts. They can provide valuable insight into the potential impacts of different land use changes and future climate change scenarios on water resources, which can lead to better, more informed decision making. Climate impacts, in particular, add a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies as the hydrological cycle is intimately linked with changes in atmospheric temperatures. The main objective of this study is to investigate the extent of long-term climate change on streamflow and stream temperature within an agriculturally defined watershed in Northern Ontario. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was utilized to provide a better understanding of how hydrological processes in the Slate River Watershed will alter in response to long-term climate change scenarios. The SWAT model is a distributed/semi-distributed physically-based continuous model, developed by the USDA for the management of agricultural watersheds, and is currently one of the most popular watershed-based models used in climate change analysis of snowmelt dominated watersheds. Historic flow data was compared to a discharge model that reflected four climate models driven by SRES A1B and A2 through the middle and end of the century. Hydrology modelling was enhanced with stream temperature analysis to gain a comprehensive understanding of the extent of changing climate regimes on the Slate River. A linear regression approach representing a positive relationship between stream temperature and air temperature was used to determine the thermal classification of the Slate River. Our results indicated that the Slate River was well within the warm-water character regime. Unusual high stream temperatures were recorded at mid- August; these were accompanied by low water levels and a lack of riparian vegetative cover at the recording site, providing a possible explanation for such temperature anomalies. The results of the flow discharge modelling supported our hypothesis that tributaries within our ecosystem would experience increasing water stress in a warming climate as the average total discharge from the Slate River decreased in both climate scenarios at the middle and end of the century. Although the lack of accurate subsurface soil data within the study region prevented our discharge model from quantifying the changes in stream discharge, the strong correlation between the observed and simulated flow data as reflected by a 0.92 r2 statistic gave us confidence that discharge from the Slate River will continue to follow a decreasing trend as climate change persists into the future. This study aims to support the future endeavours of hydrologic modelling of watersheds in Northern Ontario by illustrating the current capabilities and limits of climate change analysis studies within this region.
Book Synopsis Adaptive Watershed Planning and Climate Change by : Craig Anthony (Tony) Arnold
Download or read book Adaptive Watershed Planning and Climate Change written by Craig Anthony (Tony) Arnold and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Few phenomena make the case for adaptive ecosystem management quite as well as climate change, the hydrological effects of which will upset settled expectations and require water institutions to adapt. The effects of climate change will be felt at multiple hydrological, geographic, and institutional scales that transcend specific water sources or political and legal jurisdictions. Moreover, the effects will be uncertain, complex, and frequently changing. Thus, water resources should be managed at watershed scales, and this management should use the adaptive management methods of flexibility, experimentation, and learning through iterative processes of managing environmental conditions and programs. However, the adaptive ecosystem management concept has had the unfortunate effect of de-emphasizing or even rejecting the role of planning in shaping the relationships between human actions and ecological conditions. Too little attention has been given to the role of planning in adaptation and ecosystem management. A concept of "adaptive planning" is not only consistent with adaptive ecosystem management, but could actually improve adaptive ecosystem management methods and the capacity of institutions to engage in adaptive ecosystem management effectively. Moreover, a growing number of watershed plans are exhibiting some characteristics of adaptive planning, particularly with respect to the effects of climate change on watersheds and water resources. This article explores the role of adaptive watershed planning in adapting to climate change. Adaptive watershed management requires the use of adaptive planning methods, not merely ad hoc, reactive experimentalism and incrementalism. Without some process of planning, Charles Lindblom's "science of muddling through" becomes "the science of drifting along." Adaptive planning gives some direction and focus to adaptive ecosystem management activities. Furthermore, adaptive watershed planning can improve not only adaptive watershed management methods, but also the content and effectiveness of watershed plans themselves. If watershed plans are to be useful, they must contemplate the uncertainties associated with climate change and its effects. In addition to describing the theory and features of adaptive planning and applying adaptive planning principles to watershed planning and management, this article also explores examples of watershed plans in the U.S. and Canada that have addressed climate change and analyzes a number of issues in adaptive watershed planning, including barriers to, and opportunities for, the increased and improved use of adaptive watershed planning to improve the capacity of watershed institutions to adapt to climate change.
Book Synopsis Climate Change and Land Use Change Effects on Ecological Resources in Three Watersheds by :
Download or read book Climate Change and Land Use Change Effects on Ecological Resources in Three Watersheds written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effects of global change drivers differ by place and in scale, necessitating place-specific impacts information to enable stakeholders to respond appropriately. Place and scale also determine appropriate adaptation strategies and expected outcomes. Three watershed case studies were conducted by GCRP to advance the capability of managers to consider climate and land use change in watershed management decisions. The case studies were of the San Pedro River Watershed, the Sacramento River Watershed, and several small watersheds in Maryland. A review of these case studies was conducted by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) staff to learn effective analytic, project management, and decision support approaches for conducting watershed assessments. This report is a synthesis of what was learned from conducting those three watershed case-study assessments, with the purpose of advancing - to advance the capability of managers to consider climate and land use change in watershed management decisions. The report provides a summary of the scientific findings from those three case studies conducted in the San Pedro River Watershed, the Sacramento River Watershed, and several small watersheds in Maryland. It also provides insights gained from a comparison across case studies of the process of conducting watershed assessments and effective ways of improving our capability to support decisions.
Book Synopsis Simulation of Climate-change Effects on Streamflow, Lake Water Budgets, and Stream Temperature Using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin by : R. J. Hunt
Download or read book Simulation of Climate-change Effects on Streamflow, Lake Water Budgets, and Stream Temperature Using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin written by R. J. Hunt and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrodynamics and Biogeochemistry of Lake Simcoe, Hamilton Harbour and the Bay of Qunite by :
Download or read book Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrodynamics and Biogeochemistry of Lake Simcoe, Hamilton Harbour and the Bay of Qunite written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 332 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis focuses on 3 Ontario water bodies (Hamilton Harbour, the Bay of Quinte and Lake Simcoe), which are vital for economic and recreational activities, yet are threatened by eutrophication, which leads to low dissolved oxygen concentrations (hypoxia) and harmful algae blooms. Among them, Hamilton Harbour and Bay of Quinte are listed as Great Lakes Areas of Concerns (AOCs). To develop effective Remedial Action Plans (RAPs) the potential impacts of climate change on the water quality problems must be assessed. The main objective of this study is to predict the effects of future climate change on the water quality and the implications for lake restoration through computational modeling. A vertical one-dimensional (1D) computational model, Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model (DYRESM) coupled to Computational Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamics Model (CAEDYM) was applied to Lake Simcoe and Hamilton Harbour. We forecasted the response of the Lake to two greenhouse gas GCM emissions scenarios (A2 and B1). There is a relatively small difference between A2 and B1 predictions. According to the simulations, Lake Simcoe will be stratified 4.5 days per decade longer until 2100 and the length of hypoxia will increase from 55 days to ~100 days. Hamilton Harbor, will be stratified approximately 6 days per decade longer by 2100 and the hypoxic period is projected to increase from 150 days to 200 days. In Lake Simcoe, the mean surface cyanobacteria biomass during the stratified season is simulated to increase from ~ 0.2 ugL-1 to ~1 ug L-1 by 2066 as a consequence of a warming climate. The three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic Estuary and Lake Computer Model (ELCOM) combined with CAEDYM was applied to Bay of Quinte. The model results were comprehensively validated against the observed physical (temperature), chemical (nutrients) and biological (phytoplankton biomass) parameters. The model was then forced for the periods of 2000-2004 and 2066-2070, with North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) meteorological data. The simulations show an increase in surface temperature of 2-3.5· C with minimal simulated effects on cyanobacteria. The average May-October TP concentrations in present and future simulations are higher than the RAP target (~0.1 mg L-1), from loads to the upper Bay, and biomass is consistently below the RAP target range (
Book Synopsis Aquatic Ecosystems and Global Climate Change by : N. LeRoy Poff
Download or read book Aquatic Ecosystems and Global Climate Change written by N. LeRoy Poff and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aquatic Ecosystems and Global Climate Change is the seventh in a series of Pew Center reports examining the potential impacts of climate change on the U.S. environment. It details the likely impacts of climate change over the next century on U.S. aquatic ecosystems.
Book Synopsis Quantifying Vegetation Transpirational Controls on Streamflow in the Lehman Creek Watershed to Estimate Potential Effects of Anthropogenic Climate Change by : Christine Louise Hedge
Download or read book Quantifying Vegetation Transpirational Controls on Streamflow in the Lehman Creek Watershed to Estimate Potential Effects of Anthropogenic Climate Change written by Christine Louise Hedge and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While a number of studies have documented the occurrence of climate change in the Western U.S., no studies have used modern instrumental climate data to quantify the potential effect of climate change-induced increases in transpiration on streamflow (Q) in the Great Basin. We hypothesized that an increase in plant transpiration in the Lehman Creek watershed in Great Basin National Park, as a result of anthropogenic climate warming, may result in a measurable reduction in Q. We sought to quantify: (1) evapotranspiration (ET) controls on Q in the Lehman Creek watershed and how variations in ET would affect Q, and (2) how projected climate changes would impact transpiration and thus Q. Using data from the Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, USGS, and nearby SNOTEL and weather stations, we calculated seasonal and annual ET using a general watershed balance equation. Linear regression analysis of time series data were used to evaluate short and long term patterns in climate, and to quantify relationships among precipitation, ET, Q, and air temperature. We also calculated the effects of simulated climate-induced increases in ET of 10-50% on Q. Snow water equivalent was the strongest determinant of annual ET and Q on an annual scale; however, early season air temperature was also a strong modulator of ET and Q. Years of warmer, faster, and earlier starts to early season air temperature resulted in earlier and higher early season ET, and thus lower Q. Small to moderate increases in simulated ET of 10-20% resulted in significant reductions (mean 5-10%) in Q with a 1.5-3 week extension of the growing season for drier years. Results demonstrate the risks to surface water flows in watersheds of the Great Basin and western U.S. that may result from earlier starts to the growing season, longer growing seasons, or growing seasons with higher amounts of transpiration that may result if the climate of the Great Basin continues to warm.
