Introduction To Statistics For Forensic Scientists

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Introduction to Statistics for Forensic Scientists

Author : David Lucy
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118700104
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (187 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Statistics for Forensic Scientists by : David Lucy

Download or read book Introduction to Statistics for Forensic Scientists written by David Lucy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-05-03 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction to Statistics for Forensic Scientists is an essential introduction to the subject, gently guiding the reader through the key statistical techniques used to evaluate various types of forensic evidence. Assuming only a modest mathematical background, the book uses real-life examples from the forensic science literature and forensic case-work to illustrate relevant statistical concepts and methods. Opening with a brief overview of the history and use of statistics within forensic science, the text then goes on to introduce statistical techniques commonly used to examine data obtained during laboratory experiments. There is a strong emphasis on the evaluation of scientific observation as evidence and modern Bayesian approaches to interpreting forensic data for the courts. The analysis of key forms of evidence are discussed throughout with a particular focus on DNA, fibres and glass. An invaluable introduction to the statistical interpretation of forensic evidence; this book will be invaluable for all undergraduates taking courses in forensic science. Introduction to the key statistical techniques used in the evaluation of forensic evidence Includes end of chapter exercises to enhance student understanding Numerous examples taken from forensic science to put the subject into context

Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists

Author : Colin Aitken
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 047001122X
Total Pages : 540 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists by : Colin Aitken

Download or read book Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists written by Colin Aitken and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-11-19 with total page 540 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists established itself as a highly regarded authority on this area. Fully revised and updated, the second edition provides significant new material on areas of current interest including: Glass Interpretation Fibres Interpretation Bayes’ Nets The title presents comprehensive coverage of the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It is written with the assumption of a modest mathematical background and is illustrated throughout with up-to-date examples from a forensic science background. The clarity of exposition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, lawyers and other professionals in related fields interested in the quantitative assessment and evaluation of evidence. 'There can be no doubt that the appreciation of some evidence in a court of law has been greatly enhanced by the sound use of statistical ideas and one can be confident that the next decade will see further developments, during which time this book will admirably serve those who have cause to use statistics in forensic science.' D.V. Lindley

Introduction to Data Analysis with R for Forensic Scientists

Author : James Michael Curran
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1420088270
Total Pages : 324 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Introduction to Data Analysis with R for Forensic Scientists by : James Michael Curran

Download or read book Introduction to Data Analysis with R for Forensic Scientists written by James Michael Curran and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2010-07-30 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical methods provide a logical, coherent framework in which data from experimental science can be analyzed. However, many researchers lack the statistical skills or resources that would allow them to explore their data to its full potential. Introduction to Data Analysis with R for Forensic Sciences minimizes theory and mathematics and focus

Essential Mathematics and Statistics for Forensic Science

Author : Craig Adam
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119964180
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Essential Mathematics and Statistics for Forensic Science by : Craig Adam

Download or read book Essential Mathematics and Statistics for Forensic Science written by Craig Adam and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text is an accessible, student-friendly introduction to the wide range of mathematical and statistical tools needed by the forensic scientist in the analysis, interpretation and presentation of experimental measurements. From a basis of high school mathematics, the book develops essential quantitative analysis techniques within the context of a broad range of forensic applications. This clearly structured text focuses on developing core mathematical skills together with an understanding of the calculations associated with the analysis of experimental work, including an emphasis on the use of graphs and the evaluation of uncertainties. Through a broad study of probability and statistics, the reader is led ultimately to the use of Bayesian approaches to the evaluation of evidence within the court. In every section, forensic applications such as ballistics trajectories, post-mortem cooling, aspects of forensic pharmacokinetics, the matching of glass evidence, the formation of bloodstains and the interpretation of DNA profiles are discussed and examples of calculations are worked through. In every chapter there are numerous self-assessment problems to aid student learning. Its broad scope and forensically focused coverage make this book an essential text for students embarking on any degree course in forensic science or forensic analysis, as well as an invaluable reference for post-graduate students and forensic professionals. Key features: Offers a unique mix of mathematics and statistics topics, specifically tailored to a forensic science undergraduate degree. All topics illustrated with examples from the forensic science discipline. Written in an accessible, student-friendly way to engage interest and enhance learning and confidence. Assumes only a basic high-school level prior mathematical knowledge.

Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists

Author : Colin Aitken
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470843673
Total Pages : 544 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (436 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists by : Colin Aitken

Download or read book Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists written by Colin Aitken and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-08-13 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists established itself as a highly regarded authority on this area. Fully revised and updated, the second edition provides significant new material on areas of current interest including: Glass Interpretation Fibres Interpretation Bayes’ Nets The title presents comprehensive coverage of the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It is written with the assumption of a modest mathematical background and is illustrated throughout with up-to-date examples from a forensic science background. The clarity of exposition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, lawyers and other professionals in related fields interested in the quantitative assessment and evaluation of evidence. 'There can be no doubt that the appreciation of some evidence in a court of law has been greatly enhanced by the sound use of statistical ideas and one can be confident that the next decade will see further developments, during which time this book will admirably serve those who have cause to use statistics in forensic science.' D.V. Lindley

The Use Of Statistics In Forensic Science

Author : C. G. G. Aitken
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 0203017323
Total Pages : 243 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis The Use Of Statistics In Forensic Science by : C. G. G. Aitken

Download or read book The Use Of Statistics In Forensic Science written by C. G. G. Aitken and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 1991-10-31 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes ways of assessing forensic science evidence and the means of communicating the assessment to a court of law. The aim of this work is to ensure that the courts consider seriously the probability of the evidence of association.

Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology

Author : Zuzana Obertová
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0128157658
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology by : Zuzana Obertová

Download or read book Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology written by Zuzana Obertová and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2020-07-28 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology provides a practical guide for forensic scientists, primarily anthropologists and pathologists, on how to design studies, how to choose and apply statistical approaches, and how to interpret statistical outcomes in the forensic practice. As with other forensic, medical and biological disciplines, statistics have become increasingly important in forensic anthropology and legal medicine, but there is not a single book, which specifically addresses the needs of forensic anthropologists in relation to the research undertaken in the field and the interpretation of research outcomes and case findings within the setting of legal proceedings. The book includes the application of both frequentist and Bayesian statistics in relation to topics relevant for the research and the interpretation of findings in forensic anthropology, as well as general chapters on study design and statistical approaches addressing measurement errors and reliability. Scientific terminology understandable to students and advanced practitioners of forensic anthropology, pathology and related disciplines is used throughout. Additionally, Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology facilitates sufficient understanding of the statistical procedures and data interpretation based on statistical outcomes and models, which helps the reader confidently present their work within the forensic context, either in the form of case reports for legal purposes or as research publications for the scientific community. Contains the application of both frequentist and Bayesian statistics in relation to topics relevant for forensic anthropology research and the interpretation of findings Provides examples of study designs and their statistical solutions, partly following the layout of scientific manuscripts on common topics in the field Includes scientific terminology understandable to students and advanced practitioners of forensic anthropology, legal medicine and related disciplines

Forensic Science: a Very Short Introduction

Author : Jim Fraser
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0198834411
Total Pages : 153 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (988 download)

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Book Synopsis Forensic Science: a Very Short Introduction by : Jim Fraser

Download or read book Forensic Science: a Very Short Introduction written by Jim Fraser and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2020-02-27 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forensic science is a subject of wide fascination. What happens at a crime scene? How does DNA profiling work? How can it help solve crimes that happened 20 years ago? In forensic science, a criminal case can often hinge on a piece of evidence such as a hair, a blood trace, half a footprint, or a tyre mark. Complex scientific findings must be considered carefully and dispassionately, and communicated with clarity, simplicity, and precision. High profile cases such as the Stephen Lawrence enquiry and the Madeleine McCann case have attracted enormous media attention and enhanced general interest in this area in recent years. In this Very Short Introduction, Jim Fraser introduces the concept of forensic science and explains how it is used in the investigation of crime. He begins at the crime scene itself, explaining the principles and processes of crime scene management, and drawing on his own personal experience of high profile cases including, the murder of Rachel Nickell and the unsolved murder of Jill Dando. Fraser explores how forensic scientists work; from the reconstruction of events to laboratory examinations. He considers the techniques they use, such as fingerprinting, and goes on to highlight the immense impact DNA profiling has had. Providing examples from forensic science cases in the UK, US, and other countries, he considers the techniques and challenges faced around the world. This new edition has been fully updated to take into account developments in areas such as DNA analysis and drug analysis, and the growing field of digital forensics. Topical areas explored include the growing significance of cognitive bias in forensic science, and recent research that raises doubts about the validity of some forensic techniques. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

Handbook of Forensic Statistics

Author : David L. Banks
Publisher : Chapman & Hall/CRC
ISBN 13 : 9781138295407
Total Pages : 732 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (954 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Forensic Statistics by : David L. Banks

Download or read book Handbook of Forensic Statistics written by David L. Banks and published by Chapman & Hall/CRC. This book was released on 2020-09-03 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Forensic Statistics is a collection of chapters by leading authorities in forensic statistics. Written for statisticians, scientists, and legal professionals having a broad range of statistical expertise, it summarizes and compares basic methods of statistical inference (frequentist, likelihoodist, and Bayesian) for trace and other evidence that links individuals to crimes, the modern history and key controversies in the field, and the psychological and legal aspects of such scientific evidence. Specific topics include uncertainty in measurements and conclusions; statistically valid statements of weight of evidence or source conclusions; admissibility and presentation of statistical findings; and the state of the art of methods (including problems and pitfalls) for collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data in such areas as forensic biology, chemistry, and pattern and impression evidence. The particular types of evidence that are discussed include DNA, latent fingerprints, firearms and toolmarks, glass, handwriting, shoeprints, and voice exemplars.

The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309121949
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence by : National Research Council

Download or read book The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1997-01-12 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 1992 the National Research Council issued DNA Technology in Forensic Science, a book that documented the state of the art in this emerging field. Recently, this volume was brought to worldwide attention in the murder trial of celebrity O. J. Simpson. The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence reports on developments in population genetics and statistics since the original volume was published. The committee comments on statements in the original book that proved controversial or that have been misapplied in the courts. This volume offers recommendations for handling DNA samples, performing calculations, and other aspects of using DNA as a forensic toolâ€"modifying some recommendations presented in the 1992 volume. The update addresses two major areas: Determination of DNA profiles. The committee considers how laboratory errors (particularly false matches) can arise, how errors might be reduced, and how to take into account the fact that the error rate can never be reduced to zero. Interpretation of a finding that the DNA profile of a suspect or victim matches the evidence DNA. The committee addresses controversies in population genetics, exploring the problems that arise from the mixture of groups and subgroups in the American population and how this substructure can be accounted for in calculating frequencies. This volume examines statistical issues in interpreting frequencies as probabilities, including adjustments when a suspect is found through a database search. The committee includes a detailed discussion of what its recommendations would mean in the courtroom, with numerous case citations. By resolving several remaining issues in the evaluation of this increasingly important area of forensic evidence, this technical update will be important to forensic scientists and population geneticistsâ€"and helpful to attorneys, judges, and others who need to understand DNA and the law. Anyone working in laboratories and in the courts or anyone studying this issue should own this book.

Statistical Analysis in Forensic Science

Author : Grzegorz Zadora
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470972106
Total Pages : 341 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (79 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Analysis in Forensic Science by : Grzegorz Zadora

Download or read book Statistical Analysis in Forensic Science written by Grzegorz Zadora and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-02-03 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical guide for determining the evidential value of physicochemical data Microtraces of various materials (e.g. glass, paint, fibres, and petroleum products) are routinely subjected to physicochemical examination by forensic experts, whose role is to evaluate such physicochemical data in the context of the prosecution and defence propositions. Such examinations return various kinds of information, including quantitative data. From the forensic point of view, the most suitable way to evaluate evidence is the likelihood ratio. This book provides a collection of recent approaches to the determination of likelihood ratios and describes suitable software, with documentation and examples of their use in practice. The statistical computing and graphics software environment R, pre-computed Bayesian networks using Hugin Researcher and a new package, calcuLatoR, for the computation of likelihood ratios are all explored. Statistical Analysis in Forensic Science will provide an invaluable practical guide for forensic experts and practitioners, forensic statisticians, analytical chemists, and chemometricians. Key features include: Description of the physicochemical analysis of forensic trace evidence. Detailed description of likelihood ratio models for determining the evidential value of multivariate physicochemical data. Detailed description of methods, such as empirical cross-entropy plots, for assessing the performance of likelihood ratio-based methods for evidence evaluation. Routines written using the open-source R software, as well as Hugin Researcher and calcuLatoR. Practical examples and recommendations for the use of all these methods in practice.

Probability and Forensic Evidence

Author : Ronald Meester
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108692478
Total Pages : 455 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (86 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability and Forensic Evidence by : Ronald Meester

Download or read book Probability and Forensic Evidence written by Ronald Meester and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-04-08 with total page 455 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses the role of statistics and probability in the evaluation of forensic evidence, including both theoretical issues and applications in legal contexts. It discusses what evidence is and how it can be quantified, how it should be understood, and how it is applied (and, sometimes, misapplied). After laying out their philosophical position, the authors begin with a detailed study of the likelihood ratio. Following this grounding, they discuss applications of the likelihood ratio to forensic questions, in the abstract and in concrete cases. The analysis of DNA evidence in particular is treated in great detail. Later chapters concern Bayesian networks, frequentist approaches to evidence, the use of belief functions, and the thorny subject of database searches and familial searching. Finally, the authors provide commentary on various recommendation reports for forensic science. Written to be accessible to a wide audience of applied mathematicians, forensic scientists, and scientifically-oriented legal scholars, this book is a must-read for all those interested in the mathematical and philosophical foundations of evidence and belief.

Statistical DNA Forensics

Author : Wing Kam Fung
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470727034
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (27 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical DNA Forensics by : Wing Kam Fung

Download or read book Statistical DNA Forensics written by Wing Kam Fung and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical methodology plays a key role in ensuring that DNA evidence is collected, interpreted, analyzed and presented correctly. With the recent advances in computer technology, this methodology is more complex than ever before. There are a growing number of books in the area but none are devoted to the computational analysis of evidence. This book presents the methodology of statistical DNA forensics with an emphasis on the use of computational techniques to analyze and interpret forensic evidence.

Analytical Techniques in Forensic Science

Author : Rosalind Wolstenholme
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119978289
Total Pages : 464 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Analytical Techniques in Forensic Science by : Rosalind Wolstenholme

Download or read book Analytical Techniques in Forensic Science written by Rosalind Wolstenholme and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-01-26 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An in-depth text that explores the interface between analytical chemistry and trace evidence Analytical Techniques in Forensic Science is a comprehensive guide written in accessible terms that examines the interface between analytical chemistry and trace evidence in forensic science. With contributions from noted experts on the topic, the text features a detailed introduction analysis in forensic science and then subsequent chapters explore the laboratory techniques grouped by shared operating principles. For each technique, the authors incorporate specific theory, application to forensic analytics, interpretation, forensic specific developments, and illustrative case studies. Forensic techniques covered include UV-Vis and vibrational spectroscopy, mass spectrometry and gas and liquid chromatography. The applications reviewed include evidence types such as fibers, paint, drugs and explosives. The authors highlight data collection, subsequent analysis, what information has been obtained and what this means in the context of a case. The text shows how analytical chemistry and trace evidence can problem solve the nature of much of forensic analysis. This important text: Puts the focus on trace evidence and analytical science Contains case studies that illustrate theory in practice Includes contributions from experts on the topics of instrumentation, theory, and case examples Explores novel and future applications for analytical techniques Written for undergraduate and graduate students in forensic chemistry and forensic practitioners and researchers, Analytical Techniques in Forensic Science offers a text that bridges the gap between introductory textbooks and professional level literature.

Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309142393
Total Pages : 348 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States by : National Research Council

Download or read book Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-07-29 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scores of talented and dedicated people serve the forensic science community, performing vitally important work. However, they are often constrained by lack of adequate resources, sound policies, and national support. It is clear that change and advancements, both systematic and scientific, are needed in a number of forensic science disciplines to ensure the reliability of work, establish enforceable standards, and promote best practices with consistent application. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward provides a detailed plan for addressing these needs and suggests the creation of a new government entity, the National Institute of Forensic Science, to establish and enforce standards within the forensic science community. The benefits of improving and regulating the forensic science disciplines are clear: assisting law enforcement officials, enhancing homeland security, and reducing the risk of wrongful conviction and exoneration. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States gives a full account of what is needed to advance the forensic science disciplines, including upgrading of systems and organizational structures, better training, widespread adoption of uniform and enforceable best practices, and mandatory certification and accreditation programs. While this book provides an essential call-to-action for congress and policy makers, it also serves as a vital tool for law enforcement agencies, criminal prosecutors and attorneys, and forensic science educators.

DNA Technology in Forensic Science

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309045878
Total Pages : 199 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis DNA Technology in Forensic Science by : National Research Council

Download or read book DNA Technology in Forensic Science written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1992-02-01 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Matching DNA samples from crime scenes and suspects is rapidly becoming a key source of evidence for use in our justice system. DNA Technology in Forensic Science offers recommendations for resolving crucial questions that are emerging as DNA typing becomes more widespread. The volume addresses key issues: Quality and reliability in DNA typing, including the introduction of new technologies, problems of standardization, and approaches to certification. DNA typing in the courtroom, including issues of population genetics, levels of understanding among judges and juries, and admissibility. Societal issues, such as privacy of DNA data, storage of samples and data, and the rights of defendants to quality testing technology. Combining this original volume with the new update-The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence-provides the complete, up-to-date picture of this highly important and visible topic. This volume offers important guidance to anyone working with this emerging law enforcement tool: policymakers, specialists in criminal law, forensic scientists, geneticists, researchers, faculty, and students.

Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists

Author : Colin Aitken
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119245257
Total Pages : 1248 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists by : Colin Aitken

Download or read book Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists written by Colin Aitken and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-11-24 with total page 1248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The leading resource in the statistical evaluation and interpretation of forensic evidence The third edition of Statistics and the Evaluation of Evidence for Forensic Scientists is fully updated to provide the latest research and developments in the use of statistical techniques to evaluate and interpret evidence. Courts are increasingly aware of the importance of proper evidence assessment when there is an element of uncertainty. Because of the increasing availability of data, the role of statistical and probabilistic reasoning is gaining a higher profile in criminal cases. That’s why lawyers, forensic scientists, graduate students, and researchers will find this book an essential resource, one which explores how forensic evidence can be evaluated and interpreted statistically. It’s written as an accessible source of information for all those with an interest in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic scientific evidence. Discusses the entire chain of reasoning–from evidence pre-assessment to court presentation; Includes material for the understanding of evidence interpretation for single and multiple trace evidence; Provides real examples and data for improved understanding. Since the first edition of this book was published in 1995, this respected series has remained a leading resource in the statistical evaluation of forensic evidence. It shares knowledge from authors in the fields of statistics and forensic science who are international experts in the area of evidence evaluation and interpretation. This book helps people to deal with uncertainty related to scientific evidence and propositions. It introduces a method of reasoning that shows how to update beliefs coherently and to act rationally. In this edition, readers can find new information on the topics of elicitation, subjective probabilities, decision analysis, and cognitive bias, all discussed in a Bayesian framework.